The U.S. Treasury may need to borrow more than $2 trillion from private markets in fiscal 2026, according to the Treasury Department’s latest Quarterly Refunding documents released Wednesday.
Primary dealers surveyed in the Treasury presentation estimated privately-held net marketable borrowing at roughly $2.04 trillion in FY2026, with borrowing needs expected to remain above $2 trillion through FY2028.
The documents also showed the Office of Management and Budget projected a $2.065 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit, compared with a lower $1.853 trillion estimate from the Congressional Budget Office.
The estimates come as U.S. national debt approaches $39 trillion and financing costs continue climbing alongside elevated Treasury yields. Treasury projected borrowing of $189 billion in the third quarter and $671 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.
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