The U.S.-Iran war will likely not end with regime change but with an IRGC-dominated government as hardline as any before it, according to Former Under Secretary of Defense Michèle Flournoy, who served under President Obama.
Although the majority of Iranians oppose the regime, the IRGC remains deeply entrenched. Regime change would require elites and security forces to switch sides, and there are no signs of that happening, Flournoy said in an appearance on CNBC.
Polymarket traders agree, pricing a 78% chance the regime survives through 2026 on $12.6 million in volume.
Flournoy also argued there was no imminent threat justifying the operation, calling it a manufactured rationale emboldened by the administration’s experience in Venezuela.
The Strait Of Hormuz
The central problem, she argued, is the Strait of Hormuz, which is Iran’s primary leverage. It would be difficult for the Trump administration to declare victory while the Strait remains closed. …
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