The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 6,830.71, down 0.56%, giving back most of Wednesday’s recovery as oil resumed its climb and Iran war uncertainty returned.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket is sending its clearest bullish signal of the week. For the first time since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran upended markets on Monday, “Up” is the majority call in early trades, with the March 6 market currently at 65% “Up” and 35% “Down” on whether the S&P will open above or below on Friday.
Why That Number Matters
The odds reflect genuine uncertainty around the single biggest number of the week. February’s non-farm payrolls report is due Friday morning. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect payroll growth of 50,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%.
A strong print keeps the Fed on hold longer. A weak one …
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