The S&P 500 closed at another record high on Monday, but Polymarket traders are positioning for a weaker start on Tuesday as investors await a key inflation reading and monitor renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
The benchmark index rose 0.19% to finish at 7,412.84, marking another all-time closing high. However, the May 12 Polymarket contract implied only a 20% probability that the S&P 500 would open higher on Tuesday morning.
Why That Number Matters
Investor attention is firmly on April’s consumer price index report due Tuesday morning. The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcasting model projects the April Consumer Price Index print at 0.45% month-over-month for headline and 0.21% for core, lifting the annual headline rate to 3.56% from 3.30% in March.
That would represent the highest print since September 2023. The consensus on Wall Street …
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