The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 400 points today, dropping into correction territory as wartime supply fears kept Brent crude hovering near $111 a barrel and the S&P 500 headed for its fifth straight weekly decline, its longest losing streak since 2022.
But the bigger story is in the rates market, where futures traders on Friday pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end to 52% on the CME FedWatch tool, according to CNBC. It is the first time that number has crossed the 50% threshold. A month ago, those odds were at zero.
• Microsoft stock is showing weakness. Why are MSFT shares declining?
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a contract asking whether the Fed raises rates in 2026 is trading at 25% with $642,900 in volume. The contract spiked from around 8% at the start of March. On Kalshi, the chance is 27%.
This is still well below the 52% implied by CME futures, which …
