The Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act on Thursday in a 15-9 vote. Polymarket traders responded by pricing the bill becoming law in 2026 at just 68%.
That is up 10 points on the day, but well short of the February peak of 80% and a long way from the certainty the headline vote tally suggests. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), one of the lead Republican negotiators, has warned that missing the current legislative window could push the next viable crypto market structure attempt to 2030.
Three obstacles explain the gap between the committee win and the prediction market’s hedge.
The Floor Math
The full Senate needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning at least seven Democrats have to cross over. Thursday’s committee vote started that fight from a base of two.
Senators Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) broke ranks to vote yes alongside all …
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