Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political situation is further complicating the American calculus.
His current coalition is far from the 61 seats needed to form a government. From his perspective, preventing the opposing camp from securing a majority could also be enough: If no one succeeds in forming a government, he will remain in office as caretaker prime minister until another election. That possibility is particularly troubling to Washington because it could mean additional months in which Trump’s regional agenda is forced to wait for Israeli politics.
Trump also has personal political leverage over Netanyahu. So far, he has refrained from giving him the public election endorsement the prime minister had hoped for.
When they met at the White House about two weeks ago, Trump even asked him directly about his standing in the polls. Netanyahu hesitated, and one of his advisers quickly told the president that he was “winning.”
The data tell a different story. On four separate occasions in recent weeks, Trump was asked whether he supported Netanyahu, and each time he avoided offering an explicit endorsement.
Trump holding onto potential aid to Netanyahu before election
That reluctance carries additional significance because of the history between the two men. Trump has already demonstrated that he is willing to throw his full weight into an Israeli election campaign: Days before the April 2019 election, he recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, a move he later boasted had helped Netanyahu. This time, at least for now, he is keeping that card in his hand.
The Israeli opposition also understands the value of that card. Figures close to Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Lapid have in recent months conveyed messages to Trump’s associates through acquaintances, donors, and political allies, asking him to remain neutral in the election. That activity demonstrates the extent to which Trump’s position has become a factor in the Israeli election campaign even before he has decided whether to intervene.
The personal relationship between the two men has not been severed. Senior American officials describe Trump as fond of Netanyahu but increasingly frustrated by his decisions. Trump was also recently quoted as saying in private conversations that Netanyahu is “his own worst enemy.”
At the same time, support in Israel for some of Trump’s policies has weakened following the agreement with Iran and the restrictions the administration imposed on Israel’s freedom of action in Iran, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. Trump also faces a political constraint of his own: Intervening too aggressively in Israel’s election could damage his standing among an Israeli public that once gave him almost automatic support.
US, Israel policies diverge
Lebanon is not the only arena where this gap is being tested. In Gaza, the White House wants to advance its Board of Peace plan; in Syria, Washington is investing in President Ahmed al-Sharaa, even as harsh statements against him are being voiced in Israel; and over Iran, the question remains whether the crisis will end in an agreement or another round of confrontation. Jared Kushner, Nickolay Mladenov, and Tony Blair are arriving in the region this week to advance the Gaza initiative. For them, it is expected to be the first issue on the agenda in their talks with Netanyahu. Israeli action in any one of these arenas could complicate an American initiative in another.
There is currently no basis for assessing that Trump is about to become an adversary of Israel or Netanyahu.
The risk for the prime minister is that an American president convinced that the time for deals has arrived will begin assigning Jerusalem an increasingly large share of the responsibility for delaying them. Trump still holds other cards that Netanyahu may need as the election approaches, from a public endorsement to another move involving President Isaac Herzog on the issue of a pardon. For now, he is not playing them. As the election draws closer, Netanyahu’s room to maneuver in the face of American demands is also narrowing.
