After three days of escalating conflict in Yemen, where it appeared that the Saudi-backed government was making gains, the Houthis gained control of the city of Mocha on the Red Sea on Thursday.
The advance by the Houthis was anticipated. It also appears that although the Houthis suffered some setbacks on other fronts, this offensive could have wider implications for the strategic Red Sea Mandab Straits.
Mocha is a port city that is one of several important ports in Yemen. Along with Hodeidah, it plays a key role along the Red Sea coast. It also sits at the northern end of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. As such, this could potentially put the Iranian-backed Houthis closer to being able to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the way they have attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Houthi control gives Iran greater influence
This would give Iran more influence in the region, even as Iran was appearing to lose out on many fronts. For instance, Iranian-backed proxies have faced setbacks in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. They have also faced pressure to disarm in Iraq. The Houthis are one of the most powerful pro-Iranian groups remaining.
Reuters reported that the Houthis had taken Mocha on September 10. The full story of what is happening in Yemen remains to be seen because reports are not always accurate. What matters is that the Houthis are trying to increase their role along the Red Sea.
This comes amid several developments in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia this week as fighting increased in Yemen. Riyadh backs the government of Yemen against the Houthis. Saudi Arabia led an intervention in Yemen in 2015.
Now, Arab News in Saudi Arabia has reported that “Saudi civil defense issued an emergency alert for the south western province of Khamis Mushait to warn of potential danger for the fourth time in 24 hours.” The General Directorate of Saudi Civil Defense said: “The danger has been lifted from Khamis Mushayt Governorate. For your safety, continue to follow the instructions of the Civil Defense and completely avoid gatherings and photography. In case of emergencies, call the number (998).” The warning had been linked to the Houthi conflict.
The Houthis had claimed to target an airbase in this part of southern Saudi Arabia near Yemen. As such, the Kingdom was being cautious. This shows that the Houthis are not wary of continuing to target the Kingdom. This comes as Pakistan has expressed support for Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey recently signed onto a defensive pact. There are questions about whether the Houthi attacks might trigger wider support for Riyadh.
Pakistan expresses solidarity with Saudi Arabia
Pakistan’s leader has expressed his “unwavering solidarity” with Saudi Arabia, after Houthi drone and missile attacks on civilian and energy facilities in the Kingdom left 73 people injured, Arab News noted. “At the same time, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said that a three-nation defense pact between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye could become operational in the event of aggression against the Kingdom.”
Many are watching closely to see if the Saudis will receive support from their new partners. Iran is also watching to see if the Houthis can continue to make gains and threaten the Bab al-Mandab strait. The threat of the Houthis may increase global insecurity and continue to roil energy markets. US President Donald Trump had said that he expects the conflict with Iran to wind down after the US mid-term elections. The high oil prices are expected to come down as well. The battles in Mocha could change this perception.
There are other issues that will affect the fate of Yemen and the Red Sea coast. Saudi Arabia has been backing the government forces in Yemen. However, the Saudis and the UAE have not agreed on policy in Yemen. This may present challenges for the frontlines around Aden and Mocha.
The Yemen government forces who oppose the Houthis face a challenge in that they control areas around the Houthis, but the Houthis control the high ground and also part of the coast. As such, the Houthis can shift forces along internal lines. The Yemen government can’t do this. They can’t move forces easily from Jawf, for instance, to Mocha. To do so would require a lot of logistics, and it’s not an easy task. As such, the Houthis enjoy some advantages in being able to shift resources from one front to another. Even when pressed, the Houthis will continue to enjoy this advantage.
The setbacks in Mocha illustrate how a forgotten and low-level conflict in Yemen can potentially reshape the region.
