Against the backdrop of unusually high turnout and reports of long queues at polling stations in strongholds of the change bloc and in Arab communities, Likud fears that even its traditional gevalt calls may fail to get right-wing voters out of their homes this time.
The party is concerned about the mobilization of the camp opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the difficulty of generating enthusiasm among some right-wing voters as the battle for power enters its decisive hours.
Likud officials describe a particularly worrying picture.
“If we haven’t managed to make the right-wing public want to go out and vote by now, even a last-minute gevalt call will only help to some extent,” they said. According to them, “It seems that this time the public hears our gevalt calls and remembers the boy who cried ‘Wolf, wolf.’”
At this stage, one official added, “There isn’t even a single encouraging sign.”
Likud stronghold cities not as motivated to vote
One example is the relatively low turnout in Bat Yam, considered a Likud stronghold. The city’s mayor, Tzvika Brot, is also managing Likud’s campaign. As of noon, turnout in the city stood at just 23%.
It is important to note, however, that this figure represents overall turnout. It cannot be used to draw conclusions about the level of support for Likud or any other party.
Relatively low turnout was also recorded in other localities traditionally associated with Likud. As of noon, turnout stood at approximately 24% in Kiryat Shmona, 25% in Nof HaGalil, and 27% in Kiryat Malachi. In Ashkelon, Dimona, and Migdal Ha’emek, approximately 29% of eligible voters had cast their ballots. The figures were around 30% in Afula and 32% in Beit She’an.
These figures reflect overall turnout in each locality and do not indicate how many Likud supporters have voted or how much support the party enjoys there.
The concerns come as figures from the Central Elections Committee point to exceptionally high voter participation nationwide. By 10:00 a.m., 16.68% of eligible voters had cast their ballots, the highest turnout recorded at that hour since 1981.
By noon, national turnout had reached 31.5%, compared with 28.4% at the same time during the elections for the 25th Knesset. That represents an increase of 3.1 percentage points and the highest turnout at that hour since 1977.
The trend continued into the afternoon. By 2:00 p.m., turnout had reached 44.9%, compared with 38.9% in the previous election, an increase of six percentage points and the highest rate recorded at that hour since at least 1973.
The early turnout figures were presented at a press conference held at the Knesset’s command center by Adv. Din Livne, acting director-general of the Central Elections Committee.
Long queues at polling stations continue
Despite the high national turnout, the figures do not yet reveal how participation is divided between the political blocs.
According to an analysis by the Stat-Net Institute, the number of polling stations in Arab localities is lower than in the previous election, even though the number of eligible voters has increased. This may explain some of the long queues.
Voting patterns in Arab society are a particular concern for Likud. Polls published before the election estimated that turnout in Arab communities could reach approximately 60%–63%, up from around 56% in 2022. Such an increase could affect the distribution of Knesset seats and make it more difficult for Netanyahu’s bloc to secure a parliamentary majority.
The party is also worried about losing votes to smaller right-wing parties that fail to cross the electoral threshold, which would weaken the camp’s overall strength.
Likud’s concerns are not new. Even before Election Day, disagreements emerged within the party’s campaign headquarters. Some officials expressed confidence in the internal projections of pollster Shlomo Filber, while others worried about the opposing camp’s efforts to mobilize voters.
One official described the dispute over Filber’s projections this way: “Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home”.
Another concern is voter apathy among Likud supporters. Their mobilization during the 2022 election helped Netanyahu’s bloc secure its electoral victory.
Likud fears the ‘Wolf, wolf’ warnings have lost their impact
Netanyahu himself is working to mobilize right-wing voters. In a video circulated today, he warned about efforts by the change bloc to bring voters to the polls.
“We are in danger, because the left is flying its thousands of people thousands of kilometers so that they will come to the polling station,” he said in an appeal to residents of the West Bank, asking them to help get voters to the polls.
Likud has prepared an extensive voter-mobilization operation, working alongside other parties in its political camp to increase turnout during the remaining hours before polling stations close.
The party’s efforts are further complicated by restrictions on one of the tools it used in previous election campaigns. Following a Supreme Court ruling limiting parties’ ability to track voter participation, Likud argued that its capacity to identify supporters who had not yet voted and take steps to get them to the polls had been impaired. Disagreements over the transfer of real-time voting data continued in the days leading up to the election.
Likud also remembers the 2022 election, when its voter-mobilization efforts helped Netanyahu’s bloc win 64 Knesset seats. At the time, the party succeeded in increasing turnout among its supporters by approximately five percentage points compared with the preceding election.
This time, however, the concern, according to a party official, is that repeated warnings about the danger of losing power are no longer eliciting the same response.
On the very day Likud needs its supporters to turn out at the polls, party officials fear that the public has stopped reacting to the repeated cries of “Wolf, wolf.”
