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Opioid prescribing has fallen to less than half its 2015 level while the number of people filling prescriptions for two addiction-treatment medicines has more than doubled, according to a new analysis highlighted Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
The findings describe a long change in American health care: fewer people receiving prescription opioids, lower total doses being dispensed and a larger reach for medication treatment. They also show why counting prescriptions alone can give hospitals, insurers and policymakers an incomplete picture of both pain treatment and addiction care.
HHS announced the findings at an event in Detroit. The accompanying analysis, published October 27 in Health Affairs Forefront, uses Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation research based on IQVIA pharmacy data. Its main text compares population-adjusted, three-month moving averages through March 2026 with a March 2015 baseline.
Fewer prescriptions, with an even bigger fall in total dosage
The analysis puts opioid prescriptions dispensed at 45.3% of the March 2015 level. Total dosage, measured in morphine milligram equivalents, stood at 35.2% of the baseline. The number of patients receiving opioids through retail pharmacies stood at 49.6%.
These figures are shares of an earlier baseline, not percentage declines. A reading of 45.3%, for example, means dispensing was below half its earlier population-adjusted level. It does not mean prescriptions fell by 45.3%.
Morphine milligram equivalents convert different opioids and strengths into a common dosage measure. Because that measure fell further than prescription counts, the researchers say the change reflects lower dosage exposure as well as fewer prescription transactions. The patient measure adds another distinction: fewer people were receiving the medicines through the channel examined.
The prescription and dosage series include retail and mail pharmacies, while patient counts cover retail dispensing. These are pharmacy measures, not a count of every opioid administered across hospitals and other care settings.
Treatment reached more patients than prescription counts suggest
The same analysis found that the number of patients filling retail prescriptions for buprenorphine or naltrexone reached 218% of its March 2015 level. Prescription counts for those medicines reached 148.1% of the baseline.
The researchers point to longer average days of therapy per prescription as an important reason patient counts increased more than the number of prescriptions. A system measuring treatment access only by prescription volume could therefore miss part of the expansion in reach.
The dataset does not capture all addiction treatment. Methadone dispensed for opioid use disorder through certified opioid treatment programs is outside its pharmacy data. The analysis also excludes Belbuca and Butrans, two buprenorphine formulations commonly prescribed for pain. Filling a prescription measures access at one point in care; it does not by itself establish that a patient stayed in treatment or recovered.
Encouraging mortality figures are not proof of one cause
The authors cite provisional CDC estimates showing opioid-involved overdose deaths declining from 55,296 in 2024 to 44,564 in 2025. They stress that these estimates remain provisional and that an overdose can involve more than one drug.
HHS credited the administration’s prescribing, enforcement and recovery policies for progress. But the analysis itself says falling prescription exposure is not a sufficient explanation for recent mortality trends. Illicit fentanyl changed the market, and some people may substitute illicit opioids when prescription medicines become harder to obtain.
For health systems and insurers, the practical distinction is between reducing unnecessary exposure and preserving appropriate pain care while helping people begin and remain in addiction treatment. The authors describe access as a chain that includes diagnosis, prescribing, dispensing, coverage, follow-up and retention. A prescription that can legally be written still has to reach the patient.
JBizNews Desk | Washington
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