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Goldman Sachs raised its oil-price forecasts for December and 2027 in a client note reported Sunday, citing the risk that conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine will disrupt supply. The revision puts higher expected crude costs into the bank’s outlook even as the timing and location of any disruption remain uncertain.
The bank now expects Brent crude, the international benchmark, at $105 a barrel in December, up from $90. Its December forecast for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is $94 a barrel. These are forecasts for a future period, not current trading prices or a guaranteed path for oil.
For 2027, Goldman lifted its average Brent forecast to $88 a barrel from $80 and its WTI forecast to $78 from $73. That raises the bank’s estimate for next year as well as December, rather than treating supply risk solely as a short-lived year-end concern.
The note, led by strategist Daan Struyven, said markets were pricing in a higher risk premium as traders expected a lasting diplomatic breakthrough to be difficult. “The Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, alongside broader geopolitical fragmentation, create high disruption risk,” Goldman said.
“With the timing and location of disruptions nearly impossible to predict, our base case now includes a 1mb/d global supply disruption allowance in 2027,” the bank said. That allowance represents one million barrels a day in its forecast assumptions; it is not a report that a new disruption of that size has already occurred.
The distinction matters when reading the higher targets: Goldman is changing its expectations in response to geopolitical risk, not announcing a new oil shortage or a change in fuel prices at the pump. The bank’s earlier public discussion of the supply risks is available in its October 23 research podcast; that discussion is background and predates the new forecasts.
JBizNews Desk | New York
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