Photo: White House (archive photo)
President Donald Trump’s approval rating stood at 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos survey completed Monday, while Democrats held an eight-percentage-point advantage among likely voters on a national question about congressional voting preference.
The poll, conducted October 29-November 2, found 52% of likely voters would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 44% for the Republican candidate. Those are national survey results, not a forecast of how many House or Senate seats either party will win.
The findings were released by Ipsos, alongside a questionnaire, topline results and methodology.
Approval and congressional preference measure different things
Among all adults surveyed, 32% approved of Trump’s performance and 64% disapproved. Approval among registered voters was 36%, according to the topline.
The congressional question asked respondents which party’s candidate they would support in their own district if the election were held that day. Respondents who did not initially choose a party were asked whether they leaned toward the Democratic or Republican candidate.
The published likely-voter figures include those leaners. Among registered voters, the same question including leaners produced 49% for the Democratic candidate and 42% for the Republican candidate. Registered voters and likely voters are different groups, so the two sets of numbers should not be treated as interchangeable.
A national reading, not a seat projection
The generic congressional ballot provides a broad measure of party preference across the country. It does not directly measure each House district or individual Senate contest.
A national eight-point lead among likely voters therefore does not translate mechanically into an eight-point margin in every race, or any fixed number of seats. Turnout, district boundaries, local candidates and the geographic distribution of support all matter to the final result.
The survey was completed a day before Tuesday’s midterm elections. It describes respondents’ views during the five-day field period rather than votes already counted or certified results.
How the survey was conducted
Ipsos surveyed 1,765 U.S. adults aged 18 and older using its probability-based KnowledgePanel. The registered-voter group included 1,357 respondents, while the likely-voter group included 1,212.
The stated margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.4 percentage points for all adults at the 95% confidence level. It was plus or minus 2.7 points for registered voters and plus or minus 2.9 points for likely voters.
Those margins apply to the relevant group’s survey estimates. The full-sample margin should not be substituted for the larger margins on voter subgroups, and a margin of sampling error is not a guarantee of the election outcome.
The study was conducted in English and weighted for demographic and political characteristics including age, race and ethnicity, region, education, household income, 2024 vote choice and party identification, according to Ipsos.
The poll’s central picture is low presidential approval alongside a Democratic advantage on national congressional preference. The actual balance of power will be determined by the individual elections, not by the national topline alone.
JBizNews Desk | Washington
© JBizNews.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution is strictly prohibited.
