Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, May 2026 / Kremlin.ru, Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0
Beijing confirmed Wednesday it is in contact with Washington and Moscow about a possible three-way meeting between President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen later this month, as analysts weigh how Democrats’ midterm sweep could reshape U.S. foreign policy.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Beijing was “in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state,” though no agenda has been announced. Putin reportedly floated the idea of a three-way summit in October to discuss ending the war in Ukraine — without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the table.
Analysts weigh the midterm impact
Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday that Russia and China could become more aggressive if they conclude Trump is politically weakened after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress on Tuesday.
“If it’s clear that Donald Trump is on his way out, and the United States may be returning to something like normal — I don’t want to overstate that — but they may feel, both Russia and China, that the time to move is in the next two years,” Kagan said.
Kagan pointed to the war with Iran, saying Washington has “proved itself rather incapable militarily” in terms of capacity. “Everybody can see how much our stocks are depleted in terms of interceptors and missiles, which are of vital interest in the Asian theater,” he said. Congressional Budget Office reports have estimated the conflict depleted as much as two-thirds of U.S. missile-defense interceptors since June 2025, largely from efforts to defend Israel against Iranian attacks.
The Taiwan question
Kagan argued that the deployment of three U.S. aircraft carriers to the Middle East has thinned America’s naval presence in Asia. “I think Trump’s only interest right now is in cutting economic deals with China,” he said. “I don’t think he has any real interest in confronting China, but that is going to lead China to be even more aggressive.”
In December, Trump approved an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan but later held back a second package worth about $14 billion, calling it a “bargaining chip” in talks with Beijing. China claims self-governing Taiwan as its territory. While Washington has no mutual defense treaty with the island, U.S. law requires it to provide Taiwan the means to defend itself. Former CIA Director William Burns said in 2023 that Xi had instructed his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, while stressing that did not mean a decision to invade had been made.
What the sweep could change on tech and Taiwan
Analysts say the Democratic takeover of Congress, once new members are seated in January, could mean tighter technology restrictions on China and more pressure over Taiwan policy, though nothing has been enacted or confirmed. “On balance as a result of the midterms the Democrats may nudge the U.S.’s China policy in a more hawkish direction through hearings and legislation, particularly on economic security issues and Taiwan,” Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told CNBC, while noting the executive branch keeps wide latitude.
Gabriel Wildau of Teneo said Trump, freed from electoral pressure, may resist confrontation and keep pursuing “strategic stability” with Beijing. George Chen of The Asia Group called Taiwan “the most dangerous issue in U.S.-China relations” and the area where a Democratic Congress is most likely to challenge Beijing.
For readers watching their wallets, the stakes are not abstract: a more confrontational period between Washington and Beijing would ripple through supply chains, technology trade and markets on both sides of the Pacific.
JBizNews Desk | Washington
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