Photo: Alex Reynolds / Unsplash, Unsplash License. Generic suburban aerial in Taylors, South Carolina, not properties tied to Redfin’s figures. Resized.
Homebuyers have a little more room to bargain this weekend, but not a cheap mortgage. U.S. home-sale prices have fallen below their year-earlier level for a third straight week, while the typical monthly mortgage payment remains more than 11% higher than a year ago.
The median sale price was $388,604, down 0.4% from a year earlier, in Redfin’s weekly update released Thursday, November 5. The figures cover the four weeks ending November 1. The annual price decline was larger than the 0.1% drop shown in the previous release, so the recent slide has continued rather than reversed.
A lower price does not mean an easy payment
The seasonally adjusted median monthly mortgage payment fell to $2,777, its lowest level in five weeks, at a 7.24% mortgage rate. That is below the early-October peak of $2,811, but still 11.1% above a year earlier.
For a first-time buyer, that is the catch: a small price cut can help with the purchase, while the monthly bill can still put the home out of reach. Redfin’s payment calculation uses a 7.24% mortgage rate. Separately, Freddie Mac’s November 5 survey reported 7.18%; that newer reading is not the rate used in Redfin’s payment figure. A market average is not a loan offer.
Buyers have time, and sellers need a plan
Pending sales fell 0.6% from a week earlier to 275,484 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in Redfin’s records dating to 2021. They were down 16.4% from a year earlier. The typical home spent 50 days on the market, one day longer than a year ago.
That gives a buyer who can afford the payment a reason to ask about a lower price or help with closing costs, rather than assume the asking price is fixed. It does not guarantee a concession: 23.21% of homes still sold above list price.
For sellers who need to move, the practical lesson is to price against recent local sales, not last year’s hopes. Some 21.2% of listings had a price cut. New listings fell 1.5% from the previous week to their lowest level since January, as would-be sellers pulled back. Even so, the number of homes for sale remained 2.1% above a year earlier.
The national average is not your neighborhood
The price picture differs sharply by place. Redfin’s median sale price rose 7.6% in New Brunswick, New Jersey, from a year earlier, while it fell 5.8% in Austin, Texas, and 5.1% in Seattle.
A slower-moving measure also shows why this is not a nationwide collapse. The National Association of Realtors’ October 29 quarterly report found prices rose in 78% of metro areas during the third quarter. Its national median existing single-family price rose 1.7% to $432,900.
Those figures are not directly comparable with Redfin’s newer rolling four-week figures: the periods and homes counted differ. A median can also change when the mix of homes sold changes; it does not mean every property lost 0.4% of its value.
For the U.S. economy, the warning is in the lack of deals, not just the small price decline. Cheaper homes have not yet brought buyers back in force. Buyers with financing in place may have more negotiating room; sellers who must move face a smaller pool of ready buyers.
Redfin’s weekly figures cover rolling four-week periods, not one week’s sales, and are subject to revision. The pending-sales record begins in 2021.
JBizNews Desk | Seattle
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