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Adults with prediabetes and obesity who took GLP-1-based medications had a lower risk of progressing to Type 2 diabetes than those taking metformin in a large observational study. The findings are preliminary and do not prove that the drugs caused the difference.
Researchers reviewed electronic health records for 256,492 adults, with an average age of 52, according to a November 2 American Heart Association release. The analysis is a research abstract for the association’s Scientific Sessions, not a full study published in a peer-reviewed journal.
What prediabetes and GLP-1 mean
Prediabetes means blood sugar is above normal but not high enough for a diabetes diagnosis. It can progress to Type 2 diabetes, making prevention and ongoing medical care important.
GLP-1 stands for glucagon-like peptide-1. The analysis grouped together GLP-1-based medications including semaglutide, tirzepatide, liraglutide and dulaglutide. About half the people studied received one of these medications and half received metformin, an oral medicine used to treat diabetes and sometimes prescribed to help delay its development.
Lower relative risk, not a guaranteed outcome
Compared with the metformin group, the GLP-1 group had a 31% lower relative risk of developing Type 2 diabetes and a 41% lower relative risk of death from any cause, the AHA release said.
These are relative comparisons between the groups. They do not mean that 31 out of every 100 patients avoided diabetes or that the absolute chance of death fell by 41 percentage points. The release does not provide the absolute event rates needed to translate those headline percentages into an individual’s expected benefit.
The detailed study description says patients were followed for an average of roughly three years. Researchers drew records from 104 institutions in the TriNetX health-record network spanning 2010 to 2023 and matched patients with similar ages, health conditions and medications.
Why an observational study cannot settle the question
Patients were not randomly assigned to the medicines. Matching records can make groups more comparable, but differences not fully measured in the records can still affect the results.
Diagnosis codes can be incomplete. Prescription records do not show how consistently people took their medicine or at what dose. The analysis also grouped several medications together, so it does not establish that each drug has the same effects.
The AHA says meeting abstracts are not peer-reviewed and their findings remain preliminary until published as a full manuscript in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. The results are a reason for further study and discussion with a clinician, not proof that one prescription should replace another.
Do not change medication on your own
Study author Vinicius de Sousa Barzon Serra, a Mayo Clinic research fellow, told Fox News Digital that people with prediabetes and obesity should discuss their options with their doctor and should not stop or change medication on their own.
He emphasized that metformin remains a safe, inexpensive option with a long track record. Healthy eating, regular physical activity and weight management remain the foundation of care, he said.
The practical takeaway is a conversation about an individual’s health and treatment options. The abstract does not establish which medicine is best for every patient, and its relative-risk findings should not be treated as a promise of prevention.
JBizNews Desk | New York
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