Graphic: NOAA / NWS Weather Prediction Center / U.S. government work
NEW YORK, N.Y. – The National Weather Service says a storm could bring rain and gusty winds to New York City, New Jersey and the surrounding region from Thursday into Saturday, with wet snow possible only well inland. The offices that cover the area agree the details are not settled, and the New York office says impacts for now appear limited.
The graphic is the Weather Prediction Center’s Day 3 surface forecast map, issued at 7:21 a.m. Eastern on Monday and valid for Thursday, November 12. It shows forecast areas of low pressure over the Ohio Valley and off the Mid-Atlantic coast; it is a forecast, not a record of the storm.
In its 10:01 a.m. Monday forecast discussion, the National Weather Service office in New York said low pressure may affect the region late Thursday into Friday night, bringing a potential for widespread rain and gusty winds. It called the impacts, if any, uncertain. Forecast guidance splits into two scenarios: a flatter system with light rain Thursday into Friday morning and a storm strengthening well offshore, or a slower one that redevelops just south of Long Island, with rain returning late Friday and Friday night and possibly lasting into Saturday morning.
The New York office said impacts in the second scenario also look limited because the rain would be stratiform and the winds would likely have enough of a northerly component to limit coastal flooding concerns. Some wet snow could mix in at higher elevations well inland on the storm’s back side Friday night or early Saturday, it said, but confidence is low because there is no source of low-level cold air, and any impacts appear negligible under the latest consensus forecast. It said a wind advisory is not indicated now but could be considered if the storm develops closer to the coast.
The Mount Holly, N.J., office, which covers much of New Jersey, is more direct. Its 6:21 a.m. discussion says a coastal storm or nor’easter is forecast to affect the region Thursday through Friday night. It said the air mass is not very cold, so dynamic cooling would be needed for a rain and snow mix or some snow, and the greatest chance of snow is across the I-80 corridor in the Poconos, mainly in far western and northwestern zones. Otherwise, it said, a decent rain event remains possible. It called the strength of winds and tidal flooding less certain and said it turns colder Friday and over the weekend.
For travel, the New York office’s aviation outlook says MVFR or lower conditions are possible at times in rain on Thursday and Friday at the New York-area airports covered by its forecast, with northeast wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots developing late Thursday through Friday. Mount Holly expects reduced flying conditions from Thursday night into Friday, with northerly gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Small craft conditions are expected to return on Thursday evening, and a period of gales is possible on the ocean.
Monday is breezy first. New York expects gusty west winds through early evening, with isolated peak gusts up to 35 knots at metro airports during the early afternoon. Mount Holly said gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible in New Jersey, and highs will be in the lower 60s. It said no wind headlines should be needed, but the wind will likely strip leaves from much of the foliage that is near or past peak.
What is not known: the track and strength of the low, how much rain will fall, whether winds reach advisory levels, and whether coastal or tidal flooding becomes a concern. Forecasts could shift before Thursday, and the weather service updates its discussions several times a day.
JBizNews Desk | New York, N.Y.
© JBizNews.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution is strictly prohibited.
