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WASHINGTON – October’s 0.3% rise in core consumer prices landed at the level Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had identified earlier Tuesday as grounds to consider a half-percentage-point interest-rate increase in December.
The connection is between a new inflation reading and a condition Waller set before the data arrived. It is not a new post-release call from Waller, and it is not a decision by the Federal Open Market Committee.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in October, matching the monthly increases in September and August. Overall consumer prices rose 0.4%, down from September’s 0.6% increase.
In his November 10 speech in London, delivered before the CPI release, Waller said: “But if the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings” with core CPI inflation “around 0.3 percent or even higher,” a stronger policy move may be needed.
“In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting,” he said.
A 50-basis-point increase is half a percentage point. Waller’s base case before the report was a smaller, 25-basis-point increase, even if monthly inflation improved. The larger move was conditional on the persistence of core inflation.
Tuesday’s core reading met the numerical condition he described. The lower headline inflation rate did not change the fact that the core measure remained at 0.3% for a third straight month.
JBizNews reported Waller’s pre-data remarks earlier Tuesday. The separate CPI article covers the October figures and the missing overall year-over-year rate, which BLS could not calculate because relevant October 2025 data were unavailable.
Waller said his views were his own and not necessarily those of his colleagues on the Fed Board or the FOMC. His speech also distinguished the CPI report from the personal consumption expenditures inflation measure the Fed targets.
What it means: The report puts a half-point hike scenario back in focus because core inflation matched Waller’s stated pre-release test. It does not make that increase automatic. The December decision remains the committee’s to make, and this article does not attribute any post-release reaction to Waller.
JBizNews Desk | Economy & Markets
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