The Street

Elon Musk made one of his boldest claims yet about Tesla’s future on March 4, posting on X that Tesla will be among the companies to develop AGI and will “probably” be the first to achieve it in humanoid form through its Optimus robot program.

The statement instantly grabbed Wall Street‘s attention. Tesla stock gained more than 3% in the session that followed, as investors weighed what an AGI-capable Optimus robot could mean for a company already carrying a massive premium valuation tied to its AI and robotics ambitions.

But the claim lands against a complicated backdrop. Tesla’s core vehicle business has been under real pressure, and Musk has a well-documented history of setting aggressive timelines that slip. Here is what investors and consumers need to understand about this announcement.

What Musk actually said about Tesla and AGI

Artificial general intelligence refers to AI systems that can reason, plan, and learn across different domains the way humans do, rather than excelling at one specific task like driving or generating text. It remains one of the most debated and elusive goals in all of technology.

Musk’s post used the phrase “atom-shaping form” to describe where he sees Tesla winning. His argument is that true general intelligence requires a physical body that can interact with and manipulate the real world, not just process text or code.

That is where Tesla claims a unique edge. No other major AI lab has a humanoid robot in production, a large-scale manufacturing infrastructure, or the real-world sensor data that Tesla’s fleet of vehicles continuously generates.

The Optimus robot is central to the entire bet

Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is the physical centerpiece of this AGI vision. The company is converting its Fremont, Calif., facility that previously built the Model S and Model X into an Optimus production line. The long-term target is one million units annually.

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Musk has also said Tesla is building an “Optimus Academy” to train the robot using the same reality-simulation tools that power its Full Self-Driving system. That FSD infrastructure, built on billions of miles of real-world driving data, is the foundation Tesla believes gives it a path to embodied AGI that pure software labs cannot replicate.

What makes Tesla’s AGI case different from rivals:

• Real-world physical data from millions of vehicles operating across complex environments, not just digital text or synthetic simulations
• Optimus robots already performing tasks inside Tesla factories, creating a live feedback loop between the robot’s actions and its AI training
• In-house AI chip design aimed at on-device intelligence rather than relying solely on cloud compute
• Integration with xAI’s Grok models, which Musk has positioned as the intelligence layer running inside Optimus

The rivals are not standing still

Tesla is not operating in a vacuum. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has publicly targeted 2027 as the point at which AI could surpass human-level intelligence across domains. Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said at the India AI Summit that AGI will feel like ten Industrial Revolutions happening at ten times the speed.

Anthropic, which builds the Claude family of AI models, has emphasized careful safety standards over speed. That measured approach has drawn both praise from researchers and criticism from those who believe the competitive window for AGI leadership is closing fast.

Where the major players stand on AGI timelines:

• Elon Musk and Tesla: AGI in humanoid form, targeting 2026 as the pivotal year
• OpenAI’s Sam Altman: Surpassing human-level intelligence possible by 2027
• Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis: Near-term AGI with civilizational-scale consequences
• Anthropic: No fixed public timeline, prioritizing safety and alignment first

Related: History of Tesla & its stock: Timeline, facts & milestones

The skeptics have a real track record to point to

Musk’s critics are not short on evidence. He has predicted Tesla would achieve full self-driving capability every year from 2019 through 2025.  It never happened. Kalshi’s prediction market gives Optimus just a 14.5% chance of being available for consumer sale in 2026.

He predicted AGI would arrive by 2025. When it did not, the timeline shifted to 2026. Earlier this year, Musk declared that “we have entered the Singularity” and that 2026 is the year it arrives. Tesla’s robotaxi service, launched in Austin, Texas, still relied on safety monitors inside the vehicles for most of its pilot run.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s business fundamentals have deteriorated sharply. The company delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, an 8.6% decline from 2024 and the second consecutive year of falling deliveries. Revenue dropped roughly 3%, the first year-over-year decline in Tesla’s history. Net income fell 61% in the fourth quarter alone.

What investors are actually pricing in

Despite those results, Tesla’s stock has held a sky-high valuation because Wall Street is pricing in the robotics and AGI upside, not the car business. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives named Tesla a top AI play for 2026, saying the “robotics chapter” for the company is just beginning.

ARK Invest has maintained a long-term price target on TSLA that assigns roughly 70% of its valuation to robotics and autonomy rather than electric vehicles. That framing turns every Optimus update and every AGI claim into a direct stock catalyst.

Key milestones investors are watching in 2026:

• Optimus Gen 3 reveal, expected in Q1 2026 from the Fremont facility
• Cybercab production ramp, which began in low volumes in early 2026
• Removal of safety monitors from the Austin robotaxi fleet
• xAI’s Grok integration into Optimus for real-time voice and reasoning

The core tension for Tesla investors is straightforward: if Musk is even partially right about Optimus and AGI, the current valuation could look conservative in hindsight. If the timelines slip again, as they repeatedly have, the stock’s premium will be difficult to defend against the backdrop of a declining car business.

What is clear is that the race for physical AI is real, the competition is intensifying, and Tesla has placed the biggest and most public bet on humanoid robots as the path to general intelligence. Whether that bet pays off, 2026 will be the most telling year yet.

Related: Tesla proves it truly is a tech (not car) company with latest move

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Key takeaways

• The SALT deduction is a federal itemized deduction for certain state and local taxes you paid during the tax year.
• You can only deduct state and local income taxes (or sales taxes), real property taxes, and personal property taxes.
• Your SALT deduction can’t be greater than the SALT cap for the year ($40,000 for the 2025 tax year), but the cap can be reduced if your modified adjusted gross income is above a certain amount.
• The SALT cap was $10,000 before the “One Big Beautiful Bill” temporarily increased it for the 2025 to 2029 tax years, and it will revert back to that amount in 2030.

What is the SALT deduction?

The SALT deduction is a federal tax deduction for certain state and local taxes you paid during the year (SALT is short for “state and local taxes”). The total deduction is subject to an annual limit – known as the SALT cap – that’s set by law.

The deduction helps reduce double taxation by providing a federal offset for taxes already paid to state and local governments. “In effect, by claiming the SALT deduction, the federal government reimburses you for some of the taxes you paid to the state,” says Kelly Wallace, a CPA and TurboTax Expert based in Homedale, Idaho.

What is the SALT deduction cap?

The SALT deduction cap is the annual limit placed on the federal deduction for state and local taxes. It didn’t exist before the 2018 tax year, which is when the first cap (created by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) took effect. From 2018 to 2024, the SALT cap was set at $10,000 ($5,000 for married people filing separate returns).

The cap was then increased by the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), also known as the Working Families Tax Cut, which was enacted in July 2025. Under the OBBB, the cap jumped to $40,000 ($20,000 if married filing separately) for the 2025 tax year. However, it will increase by 1% each year until 2030, when the cap will drop back down to $10,000 again ($5,000 for MFS filers).

The higher SALT deduction cap isn’t available to everyone, though. For the 2025 to 2029 tax years, it’s gradually reduced if your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is above a certain amount. If that’s the case, the SALT cap is cut by 30 cents for every dollar your MAGI is over the threshold amount – but the cap won’t dip below $10,000 ($5,000 for married filing separately filers).

For the 2025 tax year, the phase-out is triggered if your MAGI exceeds $500,000 ($250,000 if you’re married filing separately). As with the SALT cap itself, this threshold is increased by 1% each year from 2026 to 2029.

Since the limit reverts back to $10,000 in 2030, the phase-out – and, therefore, the phase-out thresholds – no longer apply after 2029.

Note: To calculate your MAGI for SALT cap purposes, start with your adjusted gross income (AGI), then add any deduction or exemption you claim that year for:

• foreign earned income
• foreign housing costs
• income for residents of Guam, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, or Puerto Rico

Example

Let’s take a look at an example of how the SALT cap phase-out works:

For the 2025 tax year, you and your spouse pay $35,000 in eligible state and local taxes, file a joint return, and have a MAGI of $530,000. Since your MAGI is $30,000 over the $500,000 threshold for joint filers, your SALT cap is reduced by $9,000 ($30,000 x .30 = $9,000). That means you can only deduct $31,000 of your state and local taxes ($40,000 – $9,000 = $31,000). The remaining $4,000 of state and local taxes you paid for the year are not deductible ($35,000 – $31,000 = $4,000).

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Who is eligible to claim the SALT deduction?

Since the SALT deduction is an itemized deduction, you must “itemize” on your return to claim it. When you itemize, you claim as many of the deductions on Schedule A that you qualify for. The total amount of all itemized deductions is then subtracted from your AGI, which lowers your taxable income.

However, if you itemize, you can’t take the Standard Deduction, which is a set amount that’s based on your filing status. Like itemized deductions, the Standard Deduction is subtracted from your AGI and lowers your taxable income.

“In most cases, you can choose the higher of the standard deduction or itemized deductions, but you cannot claim both,” Wallace says. Fortunately, you can generally pick whichever amount is higher. However, if you and your spouse file separate returns and one of you itemizes, then the other spouse has to itemize, too. 

What taxes qualify for the SALT deduction?

The following state and local taxes can be deducted on your federal income tax return as part of the SALT deduction:

• income or general sales taxes
• real estate taxes
• personal property taxes

Note that you can deduct income or sales taxes – but not both. You can pick whichever amount is higher. For example, if you live in a state that doesn’t have an income tax but does have a sales tax, you’ll want to deduct your sales tax if you otherwise qualify for the SALT deduction. In addition, Wallace says that the sales tax option “can be especially beneficial if you paid sales taxes on particularly expensive purchases, such as a car, major appliances, or home building or repair materials.”

The total amount of deductible state and local taxes is added together before the SALT cap is applied. So, for instance, if you paid $25,000 in state income taxes, $21,000 in real estate taxes, and $14,000 in personal property taxes in 2025 (for a total of $60,000), you still can only deduct $40,000 (the SALT deduction cap for 2025) even though each separate type of tax was less than $40,000.

Let’s drill down a bit more on the deductibility of each type of state and local tax included in the SALT deduction.

Income taxes

You can deduct state and local income taxes withheld from your paycheck during the tax year. This amount is found on the W-2 form you get from your employer.

You can also deduct withheld state and local income taxes reported on:

• Form W-2G (gambling winnings)
• Form 1099-G (unemployment compensation)
• Form 1099-R (retirement plan distributions)
• Form 1099-MISC (miscellaneous income)
• Form 1099-NEC (nonemployee compensation)

However, you can’t deduct any state or local taxes as part of the SALT deduction if they’re deducted on other forms, such as on Schedule C (business profit or loss), Schedule E (supplemental income or loss), or Schedule F (farming profit or loss).

You can also deduct state and local income taxes paid during the tax year for a prior year. For example, when you’re filling out your federal return for the 2025 tax year (which you’ll file in 2026), you can deduct taxes paid in 2025 with your state or local income tax return for the 2024 tax year.

Estimated state and local income tax payments made during the tax year can be deducted, too. This includes any part of a refund from a prior tax year that is credited to your state or local income taxes for the current tax year.

• TurboTax Tip: “A common strategy for maximizing tax deductions is to ‘bunch’ your expenses all in one year by accelerating or delaying when you pay deductible expenses. The SALT deduction is no different. For instance, prepaying property or state estimated income taxes before year end can give you a much larger deduction.” Kelly Wallace, CPA, Homedale, Idaho

Sales taxes

If you chose to deduct sales taxes instead of income taxes, you can calculate the amount of deductible sales taxes using either the:

• optional sales tax tables found in the instructions for Schedule A
• actual state and local general sales taxes you paid during the tax year

The IRS also has an online sales tax deduction calculator that can help you figure the SALT deduction. It’s based on the optional sales tax tables, but also allows you to add sales tax for the purchase of a motor vehicle, boat, airplane, home, or home renovation.

The optional sales tax tables provide an estimated amount of general sales taxes you paid during the year. The estimate is based on your location, income, and the size of your family. You can also add on sales tax from certain “big ticket” items you bought during the year, such as a:

• motor vehicle (including a car, truck, van, motorcycle, off-road vehicle, or recreational vehicle)
• airplane
• boat
• home (including a mobile home or prefabricated home)
• major home improvement

The IRS also has an online sales tax deduction calculator that’s based on the optional sales tax tables and related worksheets. The tables won’t necessarily generate the most accurate calculation of your sales tax burden, but this method is much easier than keeping track of all your sales tax payments during the year.

If you’re a big spender and/or purchased expensive items during the year that aren’t reflected in the optional sales tax tables (such as jewelry or art), you might want to use the actual amount of sales tax you paid for the year. That’s because the actual amount could be higher than the estimated amount calculated with the optional sales tax tables. But you’ll have to keep very good records for all your purchases if you go this route.

If you do use your actual sales tax payments, you normally can only deduct “general” sales taxes, which are taxes imposed at one rate for the retail sale of a broad range of items. However, there are two exceptions to the “one rate” rule – you can deduct sales taxes on:

• food, clothing, and medical supplies even if the tax rate on these items is less than the general sales tax rate
• motor vehicles even if the tax rate on them is different than the general sales tax rate, but your deduction can’t be based on a rate that’s higher than the general sales tax rate

Compensating use taxes – which some states impose on the use, storage, or consumption of taxable items instead of a sales tax – are also treated as general sales taxes for SALT deduction purposes.

“You will want to carefully consider which method, the tables or actual taxes paid, results in a larger deduction, as the tables may or may not correctly approximate your family’s spending pattern,” says Wallace.

Real estate taxes

Only state and local real estate taxes on non-business property qualify for the SALT deduction. In addition, the tax must be assessed uniformly at a similar rate on all real property in the community, and the tax proceeds have to be used for general community or governmental purposes. 

If they satisfy these requirements, real estate taxes paid at a settlement or closing, through an escrow account, or directly to a taxing authority are deductible. If part of your mortgage payment is for real estate taxes, and your mortgage company keeps them in an escrow account until they’re paid, you can only deduct the amount of tax the mortgage company actually paid during the year.

If you’re thinking of prepaying real estate taxes at the end of the year to boost your SALT deduction, first check to see when the taxes are officially assessed (which is determined under state or local law). That’s because you can only deduct real estate taxes for a particular tax year if they’re assessed before the end of that year. For example, if your real estate taxes aren’t officially assessed until Jan. 1, 2026, but you paid them in December 2025, you can’t deduct them on your 2025 tax return.

Personal property taxes

Only personal property taxes that are based solely on the value of property you own (such as a car or boat) are deductible. They also must be imposed on a yearly basis (although they can be collected more or less than once per year).

If only part of your personal property tax is based on value, then only that portion of the overall tax is deductible. For instance, if you pay an annual tax for your car, and part of the tax is based on the car’s value and part is based on its weight, you can deduct only the part that’s based on value.

As with real estate taxes (see above), you can’t deduct personal property taxes that you pay early unless the tax is actually assessed (under state or local law) before the end of the year that you paid the tax.

What doesn’t count toward the SALT deduction?

State and local taxes, fees, or charges that can’t be deducted as part of the SALT deduction (or elsewhere on your federal tax return) include:

• alcoholic beverage taxes
• assessments for improvements that may increase the value of your real property (such as an assessment to build a new sidewalk)
• cigarette or other tobacco taxes
• estate taxes
• fines or penalties paid to a government agency
• foreign personal or real property taxes
• gasoline taxes
• gift taxes
• homeowner’s association fees
• inheritance taxes
• license fees (such as for a marriage or driver’s license)
• motor vehicle registration fees based on weight, age of the vehicle, or something other than the car’s value 
• motor vehicle inspection fees
• service charges for homeowners (such as for water, sewer, or trash collection)
• transfer or “stamp” taxes paid when you buy or sell a home

In addition, the following federal taxes and fees generally aren’t deductible on your federal income tax return:

• customs duties
• estate taxes
• excise taxes
• gift taxes
• income taxes
• payroll taxes (such as Social Security, Medicare, unemployment, and railroad retirement taxes)

How can I maximize my tax savings when claiming the SALT deduction?

If you plan to itemize on your federal income tax return, there are some things you can do now to boost your tax savings. For instance, you may want to consider:

• prepaying your real estate or personal property taxes
• making final state estimated income tax payment early
• purchasing big-ticket items before the end of the year
• reducing your MAGI
• working around the SALT cap (only for certain business owners)

Most of these tax planning strategies will increase your SALT deduction for the current tax year. If your SALT deduction is higher, then the total amount of all your itemized deductions will be higher, too – which can mean the difference between claiming the Standard Deduction or itemizing in the first place (since you can generally pick whichever one is larger).

On the other hand, if your state and local tax burden is already very close to, or more than, the SALT deduction cap for the year, it might not make sense to raise your SALT deduction any further. That’s because anything over the SALT cap will not be deductible. In that case, it may be better to save the increased SALT deduction for the following year.

Let’s take a closer look at each of these strategies. But before taking any action, it might help to consult a tax professional who can set up an overall tax savings plan for you.

Prepaying real or personal property taxes

Depending on where you live, you might have a property tax bill due in January. By paying the bill early – say, in December – you may be able to increase your SALT deduction for the tax year ending in December. This strategy of shifting future payments into the current tax year to increase a tax deduction is called “bunching.” 

However, as noted earlier, bunching property tax payments into a single year only works if the taxes have been officially assessed under state or local law by the end of that tax year.

For example, suppose the local real estate tax on your home is officially assessed on Jan. 1, 2027, and payment is due by Jan. 15, 2027. Since the tax isn’t assessed until 2027, you can’t deduct a December 2026 payment of that tax on your federal income tax return for the 2026 tax year.

On the other hand, suppose the tax is officially assessed on Dec. 1, 2026, and payment is due by Jan. 15, 2027. In that case, if you pay the tax in December 2026, you can include it as part of the SALT deduction claimed on your return for the 2026 tax year.

Just remember that you won’t be able to deduct that payment on your return for the 2027 tax year if you pull it into the 2026 tax year. So, before prepaying a property tax bill, think about whether the increased deduction will be more valuable in the current tax year or the next. If, say, you expect to be in a higher tax bracket next year, it might be better to wait until the real estate taxes are due to pay them.

Making final state estimated income-tax payment early

You can also “bunch” state estimated income tax payments. As with federal estimated tax payments, most states require estimated tax payments for the last quarter of each year to be paid by Jan. 15 of the following year. However, if you pay your fourth-quarter state estimated taxes for the year in December, you can include them in your SALT deduction for that year.

But, again, paying and deducting the estimated tax early means you can’t use it to increase your SALT deduction for the following tax year. So, think twice before moving a deductible payment into the current year, because the deduction might save you even more money next year.

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Purchasing big-ticket items before the end of the year

If you plan to use the general sales tax you paid during the year to figure your SALT deduction (instead of state and local income taxes), buying certain big-ticket items before the end of the year can increase your SALT deduction. That’s because you generally can deduct the sales tax on the new item when you file your tax return for the year of purchase.

Of course, we don’t recommend buying an expensive new toy just so you can deduct the related sales tax. But if you’re planning to make a purchase soon anyway, buying the item before the end of this year rather than next year might be a savvy tax move.

Also, as with other “bunching” strategies, don’t forget that you’re typically just moving the deduction from one year to another. So, while your SALT deduction will be higher in one year, it will be lower in the other.

Reducing your MAGI

As discussed earlier, the SALT deduction cap is reduced if your MAGI is too high. If your SALT cap is reduced, your SALT deduction might be, too. So, for some higher-income people, one way to raise their SALT deduction is to lower their MAGI – so that the SALT cap isn’t reduced, or reduced as much.

One of the best ways to lower your MAGI (which, for most people, is the same as their AGI) is to contribute to certain tax-advantaged accounts, such as traditional IRAs, traditional 401(k) plans, and health savings accounts. That’s because you may qualify for a tax deduction for your contributions to these accounts, and the deduction will in turn reduce your MAGI.

There are other ways to reduce your MAGI. For instance, if you’re expecting a year-end bonus, ask your boss to delay it until next year. Or, if you’re self-employed, wait until next year to submit some of your late-year invoices. By deferring income to the following year, you reduce your MAGI for the current year.

You can also lower your MAGI by claiming all the “above-the-line” tax deductions you can. That’s because above-the-line deductions reduce your AGI, which then lowers your MAGI. (“Below-the-line” deductions, including the Standard Deduction and itemized deductions, don’t affect your AGI.)

“Tax-loss harvesting” can also reduce your MAGI. This is a strategy whereby you sell stock or other assets at a loss that can then be used to offset capital gains (and maybe up to $3,000 of ordinary income).

Working around the SALT cap

Most states with a personal income tax have adopted SALT deduction cap “workarounds,” which help certain business owners bypass the cap by shifting the payment of state taxes from the owners (who are subject to the cap) to the business (which aren’t). The workarounds are optional, so it’s not something business owners have to do. 

These state laws benefit owners of pass-through entities (PTEs), such as partnerships, S corporations, and many limited liability companies. PTEs aren’t subject to the federal income tax, but their income, gains, losses, deductions, and credits are “passed through” to their owners. The owners, in turn, claim those items on their own tax returns.

The rules can differ from state to state, but SALT cap workarounds typically require the PTE to pay a special state tax that’s roughly equal to the state tax the owners would pay on their income from the business. So, in essence, the PTE pays the owners’ personal income tax for them.

In addition, since the tax reduces the net income the PTE can pass through to the owners, the owners usually receive a state tax credit or other type of tax break to help offset the lost income. This also prevents double taxation of that income at the state level.

At the federal level, the special tax is a deductible business expense, which is subtracted from the PTE’s income. The PTE’s income, which is reduced by the business deduction, is passed through to the owners, who claim it on their own federal return. However, unlike the deduction for state and local taxes, the PTE’s business deduction isn’t limited by the SALT cap. So, ultimately, the owners can essentially end up deducting the full amount of the business deduction, even if it exceeds the SALT cap.

The owners’ state tax break also reduces the amount of state and local income taxes they have to deduct on their federal return. This gives them more room under the SALT cap for state and local property taxes. 

Again, a tax adviser or other financial professional may be able to uncover additional strategies that work for you.

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What should taxpayers expect in the future for the SALT deduction?

As it stands right now, the $40,000 SALT cap in place for the 2025 tax year ($20,000 for married people filing separate returns) will continue to increase by 1% each year through 2029. After that, the cap is scheduled to drop back down to $10,000 ($5,000 for married people filing separately). The MAGI thresholds for the cap’s phase-out will also increase by 1% each year until 2030, when the phase-out is repealed.

However, the increased SALT cap could be temporarily extended, made permanent, or changed in other ways before it expires in 2030. New legislation would have to be passed in order for that to happen, but it’s certainly not out of the question.

If changes are made, we’ll be sure to let you know. So, stay tuned…and don’t worry about missing out on potential tax savings in the future.

Frequently asked questions about the SALT deduction

Q1: Where do I claim the SALT deduction on my tax return?

You can claim the SALT deduction on Schedule A along with all your other itemized deductions. See if you’re better off claiming the Standard Deduction or itemized deductions.

Q2: Who benefits from the SALT deduction?

Typically, wealthier taxpayers and people who live in states with higher state and local taxes benefit the most from the SALT deduction.

If your income is on the high end, you’re more likely to claim itemized deductions instead of the Standard Deduction. And, of course, if you don’t itemize, you can’t claim the SALT deduction. Wealthier people also tend to pay more in state and local taxes, since their income is higher, they buy more stuff, their homes are more valuable, and they own more items that are subject to personal property taxes.

Itemizers who live in high-tax states also benefit more from the SALT deduction – again, because their state and local tax burden is higher.

The higher SALT cap is particularly helpful for both groups, since they now may be able to deduct more of the state and local taxes they pay. Find out which states have the highest and lowest taxes.

Q3: What are some common SALT deduction mistakes?

Some common mistakes people make when claiming the SALT deduction include:

• including non-deductable payments, like special assessments for local improvements, homeowners’ association fees, or inheritance taxes
• failing to deduct sales taxes when they’re greater than your state and local income taxes 
• claiming both sales taxes and state and local income taxes
• forgetting to add the tax on certain big-ticket items if you’re deducting sales taxes using the optional sales tax tables
• ignoring the SALT cap and claiming too much
• deducting state and local taxes that weren’t actually paid during the tax year (even though a tax bill arrived in the mail during the tax year)
• prepaying property taxes that weren’t assessed during the tax year
• counting taxes twice, such as when you pay property taxes as part of your monthly mortgage payment and then again when the mortgage company pays your tax bill
• overlooking the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), which can be triggered by a large SALT deduction
• including business-related tax payments in the SALT deduction

Check out some other common mistakes to avoid when doing your taxes.

When you want to do your own taxes, it’s quick and easy with TurboTax Do It Yourself. We’ll get you your max refund with step-by-step guidance and 100% accurate calculations—guaranteed.

Get started now by logging into TurboTax and file with confidence.

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Century-old brands are increasingly finding that nostalgia alone is not enough to survive today’s retail environment. Changing consumer preferences, rising operating costs, and intensifying competition have forced many once-leading retailers to shrink their footprints or disappear entirely.

Over the past few decades, iconic names such as Sears and C&A have enacted mass store closures or completely exited markets. For many legacy retailers, the loss of a physical presence has also reduced their relevance among younger consumers.

Now, another longstanding brand is dramatically scaling back its brick-and-mortar footprint, selling dozens of locations across North America after 106 years in the retail business as it navigates its bankruptcy restructuring.

Eddie Bauer puts 174 North America store leases up for sale

Eddie Bauer LLC, the retail operator of several Eddie Bauer stores across the U.S. and Canada, is putting its entire retail footprint up for sale, as confirmed in a press release.

Real estate brokerage firm RCS Real Estate Advisors has been hired to market around 174 store leases, including 150 locations across 40 U.S. states and 24 locations across six Canadian provinces.

In total, the portfolio represents more than 1.08 million square feet of retail space, with stores averaging around 6,300 square feet each. The locations include malls, lifestyle centers, and high-traffic retail corridors.

RCS Real Estate Advisors will manage all marketing efforts, lease assignments, and negotiations with Eddie Bauer and its advisor. Any final transactions will require approval from the bankruptcy court. 

“This portfolio represents a rare opportunity to secure legacy retail locations in established centers nationwide,” said RCS Real Estate Advisors CEO Ivan Friedman in the press release. “Our team is actively engaging the market to drive competitive interest and efficient lease dispositions.”

The sale process is part of the company’s ongoing Chapter 11 restructuring, and RCS Real Estate Advisors is focused on “maximizing value and identifying opportunities for landlords, retailers, and other uses seeking quality retail space in proven trade areas.”

Founded in 1920 in Seattle, Washington, Eddie Bauer became one of the best-known outdoor apparel brands in the U.S. At its peak in 2001, the retailer operated nearly 600 locations, according to data from CoStar Group Inc.

While the Eddie Bauer brand and intellectual property are owned by Authentic Brands Group and SPARC Group LLC, day-to-day physical store operations are managed by Catalyst Brands, which includes Eddie Bauer LLC among its operating entities.

Eddie Bauer operator files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Eddie Bauer LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on February 9, 2026, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey.

According to the court documents reviewed by The Street, the company reported more than $1 billion in debt, citing declining sales, supply chain disruptions, inflation, tariff uncertainty, and other retail industry headwinds.

As part of the filing, the company reached a restructuring support agreement with its secured lenders, allowing it to begin liquidation sales at approximately 180 stores while simultaneously seeking a buyer for its North American retail business.

If no buyer is found, this could lead to a full wind-down of Eddie Bauer’s U.S. and Canada stores by April 30, 2026.

The bankruptcy proceedings do not affect the brand’s e-commerce operations, wholesale partnerships, or international stores, which are managed by several licensees.

Eddie Bauer has filed for bankruptcy before

This is not the first time Eddie Bauer has faced financial distress.

Eddie Bauer’s former parent company, Spiegel Inc., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in March 2003, leading to the closure of more than 80 underperforming stores and outlet locations.

Following a restructuring, Eddie Bauer emerged from Spiegel’s bankruptcy in June 2005 as an independent company called Eddie Bauer Holdings, Inc., according to the SEC filings.

More Retail Store Closures:

• 153-year-old bookstore chain confirms more closures in 2026
• The Giant Company acquires stores as owner exits market
• Aritzia brings back iconic fashion brand after shutdown
• 159-year-old retail giant announces more store closures

However, the turnaround was short-lived.

In June 2009, Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as the company struggled with heavy debt, declining sales, and pressure from the recession.

A month later, the retailer was acquired out of bankruptcy by private equity firm Golden Gate Capital for around $286 million, according to a press release.

Retail analysts say Eddie Bauer lost its competitive edge

Despite Eddie Bauer’s long history, some retail analysts say the brand has gradually lost its competitive edge.

GlobalData Managing Director Neil Saunders has criticized the company’s store experience and lack of differentiation.

“I really struggle to understand what the point of difference is,” wrote Saunders on RetailWire. “Stores are crammed full of product, are hard to shop, and don’t provide anywhere near enough inspiration.”

Others say Eddie Bauer’s struggles reflect broader challenges facing traditional apparel retailers.

Benedict Enterprises LLC Scott Benedict said the company’s bankruptcy highlights how quickly established brands can lose relevance.

“Eddie Bauer’s exit from physical retail and its subsequent bankruptcy underscore timeless lessons about relevance, investment discipline, and the unforgiving pace of change in apparel retail,” wrote Benedict. “Even well-known heritage brands can quickly lose ground when their value proposition no longer aligns with what today’s consumers want, where they shop, and how they engage.”

CEO and Strategic Board Advisor Mohamed Amer added that brand ownership structures can sometimes prioritize financial returns over long-term brand stewardship.

“The question is whether retail investors will finally admit that brand licenses without brand stewardship are expensive ways to disappoint customers while generating returns for portfolio operators,” wrote Amer.

Other retailers face similar struggles

Eddie Bauer joins a growing list of retail chains struggling with store closures and bankruptcy filings over the past few years, as traditional mall traffic declines and online competition intensifies.

Other retail chains facing bankruptcy and closures 

• Claire’s: Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the second time in August 2025 and plans to close nearly 300 stores, according to The Street.
• Forever 21: Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy again in March 2025 and liquidated all its U.S. stores ahead of closures, as reported by The Street.
• Francesca’s: Francesca’s filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy a second time in January 2026 and liquidated all its remaining 457 stores to prepare for closures, per The Street.

Related: Apple closes all stores in fast-growing market

Whenever there’s a spike in geopolitical tensions, gold usually wastes no time in pushing forward with aplomb. 

However, since the Iran war has started, the shiny yellow metal hasn’t followed the usual script.

Morgan Stanley analysts, though, believe that the recent choppiness isn’t indicative of fading safe-haven demand. Instead, Amy Gower and her team point to a couple of potent forces, a stronger U.S. dollar and a scramble for liquidity, as reasons for the sluggishness.

For some color, according to Reuters, after the commencement of the Iran war, spot gold surged to $5,260/oz on Monday, then pulled back sharply with investors “dashing for cash.” 

The correction was more pronounced on March 3, when spot gold dropped nearly 3.6% to roughly $5,137/oz. 

Moreover, at the time of writing, as per GoldPrice.org, gold was $5,165.63 per ounce, or roughly $166.08 per gram and $166,078.74 per kilogram.

In my last piece, covering the safe-haven metal, I covered JPMorgan’s big reset higher in its long-term forecast, bumping it to $4,500 while also keeping its eye-popping $6,300 year-end 2026 call intact. 

When that story ran on Feb. 25, 2026, gold traded at around $5,202 per ounce, which implies a drop of $36.37 per ounce, or roughly 0.70% from current prices.

According to the big bank’s analysts, expectations around Fed rate cuts, evolving currency markets, geopolitical tensions, and broader liquidity issues continue to influence gold’s current trajectory.

Interestingly, I covered a Bank of America piece in which the bank dispelled the AI doom narrative, calling it mostly psychology-driven fear. That’s the same thread Morgan Stanley is running on, that narratives move quickly and often move markets.

Moreover, I also covered billionaire Ray Dalio recently after Davos, who also took a similar long-term view, arguing that having a 5% to 15% slant in your portfolios to gold makes sense considering the market’s fragility.

Morgan Stanley feels that dynamic is unlikely to last long. If geopolitical tensions remain elevated, the bank expects gold prices will eventually catch up.

Wall Street’s targets on gold

• Morgan Stanley: $5,700/oz (bull case, second half of 2026).
• Goldman Sachs: $5,400/oz (by December 2026).
• J.P. Morgan: $6,300/oz (2026 year-end / 4Q 2026).
• UBS: $6,200/oz (target for March/June/September 2026).
• Deutsche Bank: $6,000/oz (2026 target).
• Citi Research: $5,000/oz (0–3 month target).
  Source: Reuters, Investing.

Related: Morgan Stanley delivers curt 2-word verdict on S&P 500

Morgan Stanley explains gold’s puzzling post-war pullback

As mentioned earlier, Morgan Stanley feels gold’s recent wobble is a result of multiple macro forces colliding at once. 

More Gold:

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• J.P. Morgan revises gold price target for 2026

Gower and her team said that the king metal’s initial move following the Iran ation followed the usual script. 

Initially, gold rallied sharply, but the move quickly ran into significant pressure from currency markets and broader risk positioning.

That correction fed into a sudden bid for the greenback.

Related: Veteran analyst drops eye-popping price target on Palantir stock

As per a recent Reuters poll, the U.S. dollar has risen nearly 1.5% since the beginning of the war. Moreover, dollar strength also directly ties to Fed-cut expectations. By March 5, the dollar index continues rising higher, up 0.11% to 98.91.

On March 3, commentary linked the dollar’s ascent to fading easing bets, with money markets pricing in just 37 bps of cuts for the year, compared to 60 bps the previous Friday. That sentiment has everything to do with oil-driven inflation fears, which have made the near term much less certain.

On top of that, Morgan Stanley argues that liquidity dynamics are another critical piece of the puzzle. In times of market-related stress, investors usually sell off liquid assets, including gold, simply to raise cash. That leads to a temporary overpowering  of the metal’s safe-haven bid.

The bank sees that sluggishness as more tactical than structural. 

If geopolitical tensions continue to stay elevated and macro conditions stabilize, Morgan Stanley forecasts gold to catch up to the current risk backdrop, pushing toward $5,700 per ounce later this year.

SPDR Gold Shares vs SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust returns

• 2026 YTD (through March 4, 2026): SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) 19.05% vs SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 0.47%.
• 2025: GLD 63.68% vs SPY 17.72%.
• 2024: GLD 26.66% vs SPY 24.89%.
• 2023: GLD 12.69% vs SPY 26.18%.
• 2022: GLD -0.77% vs SPY -18.17%.
• 2021: GLD -4.15% vs SPY 28.73%.
• 2020: GLD 24.82% vs SPY 18.33%.
  Source: FinanceCharts.

Related: Bank of America drops blunt message on the economy

Spectrum, which is owned by Charter Communications, has faced significant headwinds in its broadband business as it struggles to compete with growing rivals. After seeing hundreds of thousands of its internet customers jump ship over the past year, the company has received approval to acquire a major competitor to help reverse those losses. 

In Charter Communications’ latest earnings report, the company revealed that Spectrum lost a whopping 119,000 internet customers during the fourth quarter of 2025 alone. For the full year of 2025, Spectrum saw more than 400,000 internet customers cancel their service. 

During an earnings call in January, Charter Communications CEO Christopher Winfrey told analysts that in the company’s broadband business, “competition for new customers remains high.” Specifically, he flagged increased competition from fiber and fixed wireless internet providers and said that low move activity in the U.S. housing market has also created additional challenges. 

“The operating environment for new sales, in particular internet, continues to reflect low move rates and higher mobile substitution,” said Winfrey. “Along with both expanded cell phone internet competition and fiber overlap growth, similar to earlier in the year, collectively, that drove fourth-quarter internet sales slightly lower year over year.”

Many consumers across the country have been exploring nontraditional options for internet service as they battle higher prices, especially from cable TV providers. Spectrum was one of the providers that raised its internet plan prices in 2025. 

A survey from Reviews.org last year found that 63% of Americans want lower monthly costs attached to their internet service, and three in four have either downgraded, canceled, or considered switching internet providers to save money. 

Fixed wireless internet (or 5G home internet) services, often offered through phone carriers such as T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T, have become popular for their affordable prices and greater availability in rural areas compared to traditional wired internet.

“A 5G fixed wireless service is probably not for everyone, but more and more this technology has gained a reputation as a practical, useful, and cost-effective home internet option,” said Peter Holslin, managing editor at Reviews.org, in a statement.

Charter acquires major rival amid Spectrum customer losses, with caveats

Amid rising competition, Charter announced plans in May last year to acquire Cox Communications for $34.5 billion to “create an industry leader” in mobile, broadband and video entertainment, according to a press release.  

The acquisition will introduce Cox customers to Charter’s pricing and packaging structure, including no annual contracts for residential services. Also, Cox customers will have the option to pay less for Spectrum’s bundled services or keep their current plans.

“This combination will augment our ability to innovate and provide high-quality, competitively priced products, delivered with outstanding customer service, to millions of homes and businesses,” said Winfrey in the press release. 

On Feb. 27, the Federal Communications Commission finally approved the acquisition, but under several conditions that Charter has signed off on, affecting its customers and employees. 

As it acquires Cox, Charter will now invest billions of dollars to upgrade its network and deliver high-speed internet service to homes and businesses nationwide, especially in rural areas, according to a recent press release. This means that consumers will see “faster broadband and lower prices.”

Related: Spectrum drops bold new offer after heavy customer losses

Charter has also committed to onshoring all jobs that are currently handled offshore by Cox within 18 months, reflecting its “commitment to a 100% U.S.-based customer sales and service employee workforce.” 

It also agreed to offer Cox employees a minimum starting wage of $20 per hour and full benefits, including “Invest in America” Trump accounts.

In addition, Charter has agreed to “new safeguards to protect against DEI discrimination,” vowing to commit to hiring, recruiting, and promoting individuals based on their skills, qualifications, and experience.

“By approving this deal, the FCC ensures big wins for Americans,” said FCC Brendan Carr in a press release. “This deal means that jobs are coming back to America that had been shipped overseas.” 

“It means that modern, high-speed networks will get built out in more communities across rural America,” he continued. “And it means that customers will get access to lower priced plans. On top of this, the deal enshrines protections against DEI discrimination.”

Charter’s Spectrum falls behind broadband rivals as competition intensifies 

Charter’s FCC-approved acquisition of Cox comes after Verizon, another growing competitor in the broadband market, also completed a $20 billion acquisition of Frontier Communications in January. 

The deal aims to rapidly expand its wireless and broadband services to current and new customers. After the acquisition was finalized, Verizon’s network footprint increased. It now reaches 31 states and Washington, D.C., posing a major threat to Spectrum and other telecom giants.

More Telecom News:

• T-Mobile drops 2 new phone plans to stop customers from fleeing
• Verizon CEO shifts gears after 2.25 million customers depart
• AT&T closes billion-dollar acquisition to win back customers

AT&T, another Spectrum rival, also finalized its $5.75 billion acquisition of Lumen’s Mass Markets fiber business in February. As a result, AT&T’s fiber internet service is now available across 32 states. 

While Spectrum takes a bold step to battle intense competition, it struggles to surpass its fixed wireless and wired internet rivals in consumer satisfaction across several regions nationwide, according to a J.D. Power survey from last year.

How Spectrum compares to competitors in U.S. consumer satisfaction:

• On a 1,000-point scale, the average satisfaction score for wired internet is 554, while wireless internet scores 647.
• Along the East Coast, Spectrum trails several wired internet competitors, including Verizon, Cox Communications, and Xfinity, earning a satisfaction score of 526.
• In the North Central region, Spectrum earned a 540 rating, placing behind AT&T (554) and Xfinity (551).
• On the West Coast, consumer ratings favor AT&T and Frontier Communications over Spectrum.
• In the South, Spectrum ranks below GFiber, AT&T, Xfinity and Frontier Communications.
  Source: J.D. Power 

Carl Lepper, senior director of technology, media and telecom intelligence at J.D. Power, notes in a press release that “the internet landscape is clearly evolving,” as more consumers favor wireless internet providers. 

“The high satisfaction we are seeing in the wireless internet segment is attributed to internet speed, availability and the hassle-free ability to start, combined with a lower price,” said Lepper. “Additionally, with more provider options, customers are able to choose the service that best fits their lifestyle.”

Related: Spectrum revamps internet service as customers exit

Seeing liquidation sales and store-closing signs at once-iconic mall anchors has become a familiar sight across North America, slowly taking away shopping options in many communities and signaling continued challenges across the retail sector.

Major department store chains such as Macy’s (M), JCPenney (JCP), and Kohl’s (KSS) have shuttered locations amid shifting consumer demand, higher operational costs, and intensifying competition.

Now, another legacy retailer is evaluating its future.

After navigating a U.S. bankruptcy restructuring, closing underperforming stores, and working to restore profitability, a Canadian outdoor apparel brand could potentially be selling its entire business after more than five decades.

Roots explores a potential sale

Roots Corporation (RROTF) confirmed in a recent press release that it has initiated a formal review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value, including a potential sale of the company.

The review is part of a broader value-maximization strategy, and the company will continue executing its current business plan during the process. Roots stated it does not intend to provide further updates unless and until a specific transaction is approved or disclosure becomes legally required. There’s also no guarantee that a deal will occur.

The move follows the company’s appointment of Rosie Pouzar as Chief Commercial Officer in February 2026. Roots CEO Meghan Roach said the leadership addition intends to sharpen enterprise priorities, accelerate decision-making, and unlock new growth opportunities, according to a company press release.

Roots went public in October 2017 at $12 per share but has struggled to consistently meet profitability expectations since its IPO. While the company has generated free cash flow in multiple periods, margins have remained under pressure.

TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison said in a note that a potential transaction could value the company’s shares between $4 and $4.5 based on valuation multiples of comparable retailers, as reported by Bloomberg.

Strategic review processes are often initiated when companies seek to unlock shareholder value, respond to market changes, reduce financial risk, gain access to capital, or pursue ownership structures better suited for long-term growth.

Roots U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy and restructuring

Roots filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. in 2020 amid financial challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, the company reported approximately $9.6 million in assets and $15.4 million in liabilities tied to its U.S. operations.

The filing led to the liquidation and closure of nearly all its U.S. stores, leaving just two physical locations nationwide. However, Roots maintained its e-commerce platform to preserve market distribution without expanding its brick-and-mortar footprint.   

More Store Closures:

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Today, the company operates around 100 stores in Canada, two in the U.S., and over 100 partner-operated locations in Asia. It also has an e-commerce platform that delivers to more than 70 countries worldwide.

Roots’ multi-year turnaround strategy shows progress, but profitability remains shaky

During a June 2025 earnings call, Roots unveiled a multi-year turnaround plan focused on in-store customer engagement, strengthening digital merchandising, optimizing inventory availability, and enhancing omnichannel capabilities to boost sales and get its business back on track.

As part of this strategy, the company has closed underperforming locations to allocate capital toward stores with stronger long-term profitability potential.

Roots said the strategy had begun showing early signs of progress.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, sales increased nearly 7% year over year. However, the company still reported a net loss of almost $8 million CAD ($5.87 million USD).

By the third quarter of fiscal 2025, sales rose 6.8% to $71.5 million CAD ($52.43 million USD). Net income totaled $2.3 million ($1.69 million USD), down 4.5% from the prior year, signaling slower earnings growth despite higher sales.

Roots CFO Leon Wu said in the earnings report that investments in strategic growth strategies continue to deliver results.

“We have sustained positive sales momentum and maintained the underlying margins of those sales, supporting a stronger balance sheet with year-over-year reductions in net debt,” Wu said.

Roots’ shares fell 4.1% on March 2 before rebounding 5.6% on March 4 following news of the strategic review. The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately $118.03 million CAD ($86.34 million USD), with a high debt-to-equity ratio and limited liquidity reflecting ongoing financial strain, according to MarketBeat.

What this means for investors

A potential sale of the business could provide new opportunities, including access to new capital. However, if no deal is made, the company’s ability to expand margins and reduce debt will likely determine long-term shareholder returns.

Related: Apple closes all stores in fast-growing market

For many households, tax season feels like a test you never studied for. You gather receipts, log into your tax software, and hope for the best.

But the truth is that much of what determines your tax bill was decided months ago by how you earned, saved, and spent your money.

The U.S. tax code already includes several deductions and credits aimed squarely at families. The problem is that many people either overlook them or assume they do not qualify. In some cases, missing just one benefit can mean leaving thousands of dollars on the table.

Here are five IRS-recognized strategies families should keep in mind before filing.

Strategy 1: Make the most of the Child Tax Credit

Few tax benefits matter more to families than the Child Tax Credit. Eligible taxpayers can claim up to $2,200 for each qualifying child under age 17, a permanent increase that took effect for the 2025 tax year under the One Big Beautiful Bill.

For some households, part of that credit is refundable, meaning it can increase a refund even if little tax is owed.

Who qualifies for the Child Tax Credit

• The child must be under age 17 by the end of the tax year
• The child must have a qualifying relationship to the taxpayer, such as a son, daughter, or stepchild
• The child must have lived with the taxpayer for more than half the year
• Income limits apply, with the credit phasing out for higher earners
• Shared custody and multigenerational households are common sources of errors

For families with more than one child, this credit alone can significantly reduce a tax bill.

Strategy 2: Use the Child and Dependent Care Credit

Child care is expensive, and the tax code offers some relief for families who need it in order to work. The Child and Dependent Care Credit applies to qualifying expenses such as day care, after-school programs, and in some cases in-home caregivers.

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This credit does not require itemizing deductions, and it can make a noticeable difference for working parents who spend a large share of their income on care.

How the credit is calculated

• Up to $3,000 in expenses for one qualifying person can be used to calculate the credit
• Up to $6,000 for two or more qualifying persons
• The percentage of expenses you can claim depends on income, with lower earners generally receiving a larger benefit
• The credit applies to care for qualifying children and dependent adults

Strategy 3: Reduce taxable income through retirement savings

Retirement accounts remain one of the most reliable ways to lower taxable income while building long-term financial security.

Contributions to traditional employer plans such as 401(k)s and 403(b)s reduce taxable wages before they even appear on a W-2. Traditional IRA contributions may also be deductible, depending on income and whether a workplace plan is available.

Health Savings Accounts offer an additional option, especially for families enrolled in high-deductible health plans. Self-employed workers have even more flexibility through SEP IRAs and solo 401(k) plans, which allow deductions based on a percentage of net self-employment income.

For lower- and middle-income households, retirement contributions may also unlock the Saver’s Credit, which adds another layer of tax relief on top of the deduction itself.

Strategy 4: Use education tax benefits where they apply

Families paying for college or career training may be eligible for education-related tax breaks. The American Opportunity Tax Credit can be worth up to $2,500 per student for the first four years of higher education, and part of it may be refundable.

The Lifetime Learning Credit applies more broadly, including to graduate courses and job-skill programs.

Other education benefits to check

• Some borrowers may deduct interest paid on student loans without itemizing
• Income limits apply, and not all loans qualify
• The American Opportunity Tax Credit requires the student to be enrolled at least half-time
• The Lifetime Learning Credit has no limit on the number of years it can be claimed

Taken together, these benefits can meaningfully offset the cost of tuition and related expenses for households supporting students.

Strategy 5: Decide carefully between the standard deduction and itemizing

Every taxpayer faces the same basic choice: take the standard deduction or itemize deductions. The standard deduction is larger than it used to be, which means many families no longer itemize.

Still, itemizing can make sense for households with substantial deductible expenses. Mortgage interest, state and local taxes within the legal limit, and charitable contributions are among the most common itemized deductions.

When itemizing is worth calculating

• You bought a home and paid significant mortgage interest during the year
• You made large charitable donations
• You faced major unreimbursed medical expenses exceeding a threshold of your income
• Your combined state and local taxes were close to or above the deduction cap

Families who fall into any of these categories should calculate their taxes both ways. Choosing the higher of the two can lead to meaningful savings.

Tax savings rarely come from obscure loopholes. They come from understanding which deductions and credits already exist and applying them correctly. For families, that often means combining multiple strategies rather than relying on just one.

Because many of these benefits depend on income levels and personal circumstances, professional tax advice or reliable tax software can help ensure nothing is missed. The IRSregularly publishes guidance on these provisions through its Tax Tips and official publications, and staying informed can be one of the simplest ways to avoid paying more than necessary.

Related: Arizona retirement taxes explained

Pulling up to a gas station for a refill has become, well, unsettling, thanks to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

The U.S. national average pump price, now at $3.198 a gallon, up nine cents from March 3, according to AAA data.

It’s risen 7.2% just since Feb. 27, less than a week ago. The price, in fact, is now up 12.65% year-to-date.

By many accounts, the United States and Israel have the upper hand in the campaign, but there have been no signs Iran will agree to demands it stop its nuclear research or that it halts being a belligerent in the Persian Gulf region.

For one thing, no one is sure yet who is leading Iran, following the Israeli attack that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khameinei on Feb. 28. And it’s even less clear how Iran will be governed going forward. It has been ruled by Shiite clerics since 1980.

So, motorists filling up and hoping for a reprieve will have to be patient.

A conflict that was slow to bubble up

Very few experts expected this situation when 2025 ended. The world was awash in crude oil, and crude prices had dropped nearly 53% since peaking in the summer of 2022.

Gasoline prices had dropped all the way through the summer.

Related: Crude, natural gas prices jump on Iranian news

Better, there was confidence the situation would get better for consumers in 2026 and maybe not so good for the companies that produce the fuel that fill the tanks of cars, SUVS, minivans, pickup trucks and big trucks that haul freight hither and yon.

Crises with Iran and allies blow up the scenario

Alas , it didn’t happen. And it’s not clear it will happen in the next few weeks. Maybe it will by the end of the year.

The problem facing motorists has been this: The business of producing oil and gas products is global. And 20% of the oil and a similar proportion of the world’s liquid natural gas is produced in and around the Persian Gulf.

That supply is at risk because all that oil and gas must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is on the north side of the strait. The other side of the strait is the Musandam Peninsula, controlled by the United Arab Emirates and the Musandam Governate. The governate is part of Oman.

Iran, mostly by threats, has largely closed the strait to traffic because it can attack ships with missiles, drones, long-range artillery and other weapons, energy consultant Bob McNally told CNBC.

McNally is the founder of the Rapidan Energy Group, based in Washington, D.C. McNally was a senior director for International Energy during President George W. Bush’s first term.

Much of Iran’s armed forces are controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who also controls much of the Iranian economy, and McNally and others believe they won’t give up their influence/power willingly.

So, Iran will be dangerous for the near term at least.

There was hope oil prices were done rising. Light sweet crude, the U.S. benchmark, was up slightly at $74.66 a barrel on March 4.

But investors seemed more interested in what’s head and pushed energy stocks lower.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund was down 0.6% to $56.19. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Halliburton, SLB (formerly Schlumberger) and ConocoPhillips were fell by 1% or more.

• U.S. government warns against travel to a European country as Iran war edges in
• Iranian strike hits major airport, injuries reported
• Top energy stocks to buy amid Venezuela chaos

Why the tankers won’t move

The danger affects motorists this way: Maritime insurers are simply reluctant to insure ships going through the strait.

So, perhaps 150 tankers and more than 100 container ships are anchored in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, another 100 tankers are anchored outside the strait along dozens of cargo ships, according to DTN, a Minnesota company that tracks shipping, weather and financial patterns.

To combat the problem, President Trump promised Monday that U.S. naval forces could act as escorts to get ships in and out, and he said the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. could act as a backstop for maritime insurers.

But it wasn’t clear how fast the plans could be put in place. Which means there is continued risk for all concerned.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on March 4 that a U.S. submarine sank an Irani warship off the coast of Sri Lanka. The Guardian newspaper said 87 Iranian sailors were killed in the torpedo attack. The ship had been engaged in a naval exercise organized by India.

Related: Big Oil supermajor stuns with blunt Venezuela message

On February 17, 2026, Blackstone announced its decision to acquire Champions Group, a provider of HVAC services, from Odyssey Investment Partners, LLC, in a definitive agreement.

Who is the Champions Group?

Leland Smith founded Champions Group in 2000. They provide home services, including residential repair, air conditioning, heating, and HVAC.  The Champions group  has 1,800 fields, technically, and 150,000 active members.

Though the terms of the deal will not be disclosed until the first half of 2026, Reports from Bloomberg and other industry insiders have valued it at around $2.5 billion.

Given earnings of $140 million, the deal trades at 18.5x EBITDA, which is a very high value and high cash flow, especially in a recession.

Odyssey Investment Partners is making a large minority investment, signaling that it values the business and the benefits of Blackstone’s ownership.

Think about it. The home repair industry is a lucrative business. Someone is always going to have their bathroom fixed or have heating issues in the winter.

More Fund Managers:

• Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater invests $253 million in major AI stock
• JPMorgan builds $2.93 billion stake in health care stock
• Jim Simons’ Renaissance drops $520 million on surging tech stock

The “perpetual” powerhouse: why BXPE is lowkey built different

The Blackstone Private Equity Strategies Fund (BXPE) is executing the Champions Group acquisition, which Blackstone’s 10-K says is designed for “privately negotiated, equity-oriented investments” that will leverage the firm’s institutional scale.

Related: Blue Owl Capital liquidity trap or shadow bank misinformation wave?

Blackstone’s Perpetual Capital strategy crossed a large AUM threshold at the end of 2025, so BXPE isn’t pressured to the forced-exit timelines that make up traditional buyout funds.

Patient capital is required from the hundreds of local HVAC operators being rolled up, and Blackstone has the time & incentives to let compounding do its thing.

The broader asset management trend: less SaaS, more physicality

Blackstone’s total AUM reached $1.3 trillion at the end of December 31, 2025, yet the more interesting story is how Blackstone is deploying those numbers.

Within all the SaaS fears and AI craziness, Blackstone is ironically acting like an underdog, betting on “un-disruptable” labor. While you can use ChatGPT to ask ‘how to fix a burst pipe,’ you cannot replace human labor.

Related: KKR Arctos deal reshapes sports, GP solutions platform

It can be seen as almost a defense asset that has physical tangibility.

Champions Group has acquired brands like McAfee Heating and Bee’s Plumbing, and Blackstone aims to target “local mom-and-pop” shops under the Champions umbrella to reach a national scale.

For home services, the U.S. market exceeds $600 billion, but remains heavily fragmented, as most operators/businesses run on pen/paper workflows.

Blackstone is providing the institutional infrastructure to an industry that’s never had it.

The deal is being run by Blackstone’s Perpetual Private Equity Strategy (BXPE), which differs from traditional funds that are expected to sell companies in a short time period, such as 5-7 years.

BXPE is also meant to hold Champions Group “perpetual,” to focus on compounding growth and expansion rather than a traditional in-and-out.

Recent Blackstone (BX) insider activity: smart money is doubling down

Form 4 filings from February 2026 show key insiders’ share acquisitions, including Ruth Porat, a member of Blackstone’s Board of Directors.

At the leadership level, it suggests confidence in Blackstone’s pivot to tangible, not-so-easy-to-AI businesses far from being priced in.

Related: Bankrupt auto parts giant cuts 1,267 jobs

The U.S. automotive market had a wild 2025, thanks to the uncertain climate under President Donald Trump’s mercurial tariff policy. Still, analysts at Bank of America believe that at least three U.S. car companies are worth investing in.

Carmakers such as Ford played the change in the U.S. economic policy perfectly. Ford rode dealer incentives, combined with consumer anxiety about tariffs, to become the top-selling brand in the U.S. during the year’s first half. Ford said total sales in the second quarter rose at a rate seven times that of the overall auto industry. 

It sold 1.1 million units in the first six months, a 6.6% year-over-year increase.

But Ford wasn’t the only beneficiary. GMincreased its U.S. market share above 17%, representing the most substantial presence in the U.S. since 2017, while other brands also saw sales rise.

“Automakers are providing healthy incentives to keep sales flowing. Prices are trending higher, but just as we are seeing in the broader retail markets, there’s sufficient demand and generous incentives out there, and that’s driving the market,” said Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Erin Keating earlier this year. 

But that was 2025.

It is a new year, and analysts at Bank of America see a different landscape for automakers in 2026.

Bank of America reinstates “buy” ratings on Ford, GM, Tesla

On Wednesday, March 4, Bank of America reinstated its coverage of the North American Automotive sector.

It picked three winners to which it assigned “buy” ratings: Ford, General Motors, and Tesla.

Related: Tesla proves it truly is a tech (not car) company with latest move

“We highlight Ford & General Motors (see reports) as OEM top picks as we see potential for upward estimate revisions given the shift away from EVs and emissions mandates that limited profitability over the past several years,” the firm said in a research report emailed to TheStreet.

BofA sees upside in U.S. sales, as its forecasts for both sales and production are above industry estimates. It says pent-up demand from years of constrained supply will coalesce with “slowly improving” affordability to drive more demand.

Here’s what the firm said about each company in its research report.

Ford gets “buy” rating and $17 price target, a 34% upside from March 4 opening price

• “We think Ford is positioned well to capitalize on the significant shift in the regulatory backdrop under the current administration that should enable it to shift focus to its most margin accretive trucks/SUVs. We expect near-term benefits as Model E losses abate and the company’s high-margin commercial business stabilizes. We expect Ford to make progress toward its 8% EBIT margin guide (from 4.8% in 2026E), including a large step-up in 2027.”
• “Ford improved its U.S. market share by 50bps in 2025, and we estimate the company is third in total share (with 13.2% retail share, including medium/heavy-duty trucks). Ford’s strong position is anchored by its #2 rank in pickup trucks (by unit volume), where it holds over 30% share, and by its F-Series, which is the #1 U.S. nameplate. Positively, Ford’s share in pickups is up by more than 300bps over the past two years.”

General Motors gets “buy” rating and $105 price target, a 14% upside from March 4 opening price

• “We are reinstating coverage of General Motors with a Buy rating and $105 price objective based on an EV of 3.5X our 2027 EBITDA. We believe GM is a key beneficiary of recent regulatory changes, including the removal of CAFE penalties and GHG relief, which are enabling a mix shift toward its most margin-accretive trucks/SUVs and away from unprofitable EVs. The evidence is compelling: we estimate that the variable profit per unit for trucks/SUVs is $17.5K, vs. the corporate average of $10-12K. We also believe GM should benefit in 2026 from lower warranty costs & regulatory credits, lean inventory levels, and low incentives.”
• “GM is the number 1 automaker by market share in the US (17.1% retail share, including medium/heavy duty trucks), which has improved 110bps over the past three years and should continue given benefits from a more favorable environment for ICE vehicles.”

Tesla gets “buy” rating and $460 price target, a 14% upside from March 4 opening price

• “We expect TSLA to quickly become a leader in robotaxi services, given its ability to scale more profitably than competitors. We see autonomous vehicles spurring the next era of mobility and as the most significant change agent in the Auto 2.0 landscape, offering consumers the prospect of saving time, safer travel, and more accessible transportation.”
• “We expect Tesla to quickly scale its Robotaxis, which now operate in San Francisco and Austin, with 7 additional markets expected in 1H26. The standard technology used in the autonomous industry is multi‑sensor fusion (LiDAR/radar/cameras), whereas Tesla’s camera‑only approach is technically more challenging but much cheaper and leverages a consumer‑fleet data engine. Tesla’s strategy should allow it to scale more profitably than Robotaxi competitors, while its driver shortage gives it a cost advantage vs. rideshare players. We estimate Robotaxi accounts for ~52% of TSLA’s valuation.”

Related: $50,000 average new car prices are here to stay

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Related: Walmart’s $1,570 folding treadmill with a Bluetooth speaker and charging port is now just $280

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The U.S.–Israeli war with Iran has officially reached Chevron’s Middle East growth engine. Israel ordered Chevron to shut production at its giant offshore Leviathan gas field after joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks raised security risks to critical energy infrastructure, according to OilPrice and Yahoo Finance.

Leviathan is Israel’s largest gas field and a key supplier to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan. In the first nine months of 2025, the field sold 8.1 billion cubic meters of gas, with Egypt taking more than half, said OilPrice. Chevron followed the shutdown order by declaring force majeure, a formal notice that it cannot meet some contract obligations because of events beyond its control, according to Rigzone and Reuters.

Israel’s energy ministry acted on a “security recommendation” when it told Chevron to suspend Leviathan operations until further notice, NewMed Energy said in a stock filing cited by Rigzone. Chevron told Morningstar that all personnel and facilities at Leviathan remain safe and that the company is complying with the temporary shut‑in directive from Israel’s Ministry of Energy.

When I look at that combination of forced shutdown plus expansion spending, it feels like a textbook example of geopolitical risk finally catching up with a big‑ticket growth narrative.

How the Iran war is hitting Middle East energy flows

Chevron’s Leviathan pause is part of a broader pattern of Middle East energy assets going offline as the Iran war drags on. Israel has ordered shutdowns at multiple offshore gas fields and at its 197,000‑barrel‑a‑day Haifa refinery after U.S.‑Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile attacks, said Argus Media.

Related: Oil shock threatens Fed rate-cut bets

Energean confirmed that it was told to suspend production at the Karish gas field, trimming Israel’s export capacity further, according to OilPrice. Those moves worsen the region’s gas balance because Leviathan and Karish both supply Israel’s domestic demand and exports to neighbors that rely heavily on imported gas, said Argus. 

The disruption is not limited to Israel.

Qatar temporarily shut down its liquefied natural gas facilities at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed after drone strikes linked to the conflict, cutting around 20 percent of global LNG export capacity, according to Argus. Saudi Arabia also suspended production at its largest domestic refinery as a precaution after Iranian attacks and debris fell near key Gulf energy sites.

Global shipping is now tangled up in the conflict.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for days after Iran attacked multiple ships, effectively blocking a route that carries about 20 percent of global oil and gas supply, said Channel NewsAsia. Hundreds of oil and LNG tankers are stranded near hubs such as Fujairah, and shipping rates have jumped to record levels as the war intensifies, the same report said.

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When I connect all of that, Leviathan’s shut‑in looks less like a one‑off and more like one link in a chain of outages stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf.

What this means for prices, inflation, and central banks

A regional supply shock like this rarely stays contained to energy traders’ screens. Global oil and gas prices have climbed more than 15% since the latest round of strikes began, with Brent crude up about 6 percent on one recent trading day to above $82 per barrel, according to Channel NewsAsia.

European gas prices have spiked roughly 40% on top of a previous 40 percent jump as Qatar’s LNG halt and Israeli disruptions tighten supply, Channel NewsAsia said. At the same time, gasoline prices in the United States have moved back above $3 a gallon, reversing some of the relief drivers saw earlier this winter. 

Analysts are already warning that the energy shock could re‑ignite inflation and complicate central bank plans.

The war‑driven rise in oil and gas prices “risks triggering a renewed spike in inflation that could choke off economic recovery in Europe and Asia” if the conflict drags on in a region that delivers about one‑third of global oil and nearly one‑fifth of natural gas, Channel NewsAsia reported.

A Goldman Sachs note said a prolonged disruption could add a double‑digit dollar “risk premium” to crude and significantly raise global gas prices if LNG supply from Qatar and other exporters remains constrained, TheStreet reported.

For consumers, that likely shows up as:

• Higher gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices that filter into commuting and travel costs.
• Rising utility and heating bills in markets that depend on imported gas.
• Higher odds that rate cuts are delayed or scaled back if headline inflation gets a second wind.

I see this conflict as an unwelcome reminder that energy security, inflation, and everyday budgets are still tightly linked.

Chevron’s Middle East strategy under new scrutiny

Before this crisis, Chevron was treating Israel as a major growth hub.

The company has been investing to boost Leviathan’s capacity from around the low‑teens in annual billion‑cubic‑meter output to about 21 billion cubic meters as part of a roughly 35 billion dollar export framework with Egypt, according to AzerNews.​

Chevron told investors its onshore operations in the Partitioned Neutral Zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are running normally, which means its broader Middle East production has not been fully dragged into the conflict, Morningstar reported. Still, declaring force majeure at Leviathan signals the company knows contractual volumes and cash flows from that project are now at the mercy of security conditions, Rigzone noted.

Chevron’s stock, meanwhile, has reflected a mix of fear and opportunity.

Chevron shares recently hit record levels as investors flocked to large U.S. oil names on expectations that higher crude prices will boost earnings even as some overseas projects face disruptions, MarketWatch wrote. 

When I look at Chevron through a personal‑finance lens, I see two truths that can coexist:

• The company’s diversified portfolio means rising global oil prices can offset lost Israeli gas volumes.
• Its Middle East gas assets are clearly not the low‑volatility, utility‑like earnings stream some investors once imagined.

If you hold CVX, you’re now partly betting that management can keep harvesting higher prices while navigating an increasingly unstable political map.

What I’d do with this as a saver or investor

You can’t pick the next headline from Tehran or Jerusalem, but you can decide how much of your balance sheet is exposed to them.

If I were building or tweaking a portfolio around this:

• I would size any position in Chevron and other Middle East‑heavy energy stocks so a prolonged Leviathan shutdown or further Gulf export disruption doesn’t threaten my long‑term plan.
• I’d be careful about overweighting LNG exporters that depend heavily on the Strait of Hormuz or regional pipelines, given the tanker bottlenecks and infrastructure hits that Channel NewsAsia and Argus have detailed.
• I’d also use this episode as a stress test: imagine oil staying in the 80s, gas prices elevated, and central banks cutting rates more slowly. If that scenario breaks your budget or your portfolio allocation, it’s a signal to reduce risk.

On the household side, I’d build in a bit more room in my 2026 budget for fuel and utility costs and look hard at any variable‑rate debt while central banks weigh how patient they can be. You don’t control the war, but you do control how exposed your finances are when a field like Leviathan suddenly goes dark.

Related: Analyst resets Chevron stock price target as oil strategy shifts

Snowflake, the cloud-based data platform company that helps companies store, analyze, and share big datasets across public clouds, reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 earnings last week on February 25.

The company, best known for its AI data cloud platform that enables application development, data warehousing, and analytics, topped Wall Street expectations, driven largely by accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence.

The company stock has struggled in recent months, down 27% this past quarter and 23% year to date. But since reporting a strong quarter with future growth possibilities, despite an early setback, the stock is up 2.3% this past month.

Snowflake earnings: revenue and margins beat

In Q4, Snowflake reported $1.23 billion in product revenue, a 30% year-over-year increase, 2% above the Street consensus. With an 11% operating margin that far exceeded the 7% Street estimate, Snowflake also guided to increased product revenue growth in fiscal year 2027.

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Snowflake earnings at a glance:

• Product revenue $1,227 million, up 30%
• Total revenue $1,284 million, up 30%
• Gross profit margin up 72% at $921 million
• Operating income at $139 million, up 11%
• EPS $0.32, up 4% year over year

Goldman Sachs bullish but trims target

In a note shared with TheStreet, analysts Gabriella Borges, Maura Hager, and Matthew Martino at Goldman Sachs took a deep dive into Snowflake’s earnings report.

The firm maintains its buy rating after the earnings report, but lowered its price target to $216 from $246.

One highlight that stands out as promising, according to Goldman Sachs, is Snowflake’s new offering, Cortex Code.

This context-aware AI coding assistant is embedded directly into developer workflows, and since its launch in November 2025, has already attracted more than 4,400 users.

Goldman points out that customers found Cortex code efficient, some even suggesting that it compressed “16 workweeks into less than a month.”

The code is a good example of Snowflake’s push into AI automation, positioning the company as a platform that manages workflows across the full data lifecycle.

The firm also noted broader adoption of Snowflake, underscoring the company’s ability to capture greater wallet share.

• Snowflake introduced 430+ new capabilities in FY26.
• Signed a $400 million-plus multi-year deal with a financial services customer (client name undisclosed), the largest in company history.
• Remaining performance obligations of $9.77 billion, up 42% year over year and 24% quarter over quarter.

Given these advancements, Goldman expects to see customer expansion, driven by an increase in higher-spending customers. The firm also noted a pickup in cloud RDBMS migrations catalyzed by AI. 

And driven by product innovation, it expects to see greater adoption of ML/AI workloads, adding to the existing momentum, as 9,100+ Snowflake accounts already use its AI features, representing 70% penetration of its total customer base.

However, analysts are also highlighting certain downsides near term.

• Iceberg cannibalizing Snowflake’s storage revenue
• Increased competition from CSPs and Databricks
• Adverse changes in the IT spending or optimization in cloud spending

Analysts react to Snowflake’s AI momentum

• Citi analyst Tyler Radke raised the price target to $280 from $270, keeping a buy rating, noting that the Q4 report demonstrated increased AI momentum.
• Baird lowered its price target from $270 to $210, keeping an outperform rating, but is positive on Snowflake’s growing AI ripples.
• Truist lowered its target to $240 from $270, keeping a buy rating, saying that while Q4 results topped the consensus, shares traded lower after hours as management had set higher expectations at Q3.
• Deutsche lowered the target to $230 from $275, keeping a buy rating.
• DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria raised the price target to $250 from $300, while maintaining a buy rating, commenting on Snowflake’s strong Q4 results, in which the Company beat both top- and bottom-line expectations.

Luria adds that the company remains an AI winner, isolated from “vibe-coding fears,” and that its conversations with the DEN (developer community) continue to reinforce its status as a critical component of the enterprise AI puzzle, according to TheFly.

Related: Bank of America revamps Costco stock price before earnings

The retail apocalypse continued in 2025, as 8,100 retail stores across all sectors closed for an increase of 12% compared to 2024, according to Coresight Research, as reported by WDEF-TV.

Grocery chains contributed to that apocalypse, as Albertson’s eliminated 380 jobs at its corporate offices in Arizona and California and said it would close 20 stores by the end of 2025.

Kroger followed with the closing of nine fulfillment centers and the elimination of about 1,700 jobs. The company, which operates about 2,700 supermarkets across 35 states and Washington, D.C., also announced in June 2025 that it would close 60 stores over 18 months.

Also, a chain that had been growing, Grocery Outlet, has joined the list of supermarket chains closing dozens of stores.

Kroger eliminates 3 California stores

Kroger followed through with its closure plans, as it filed notices to close three store locations in California in March and lay off 171 workers, according to Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification notices filed with the California Employment Development Department.

“While the company committed to identifying transfer and reassignment opportunities for impacted associates, some layoffs and terminations may still be required based on operational needs and contractual provisions,” Kaina Pereira, executive director of the California Workforce Development Board, said in a WARN notice, the Sacramento Bee reported. “This closure will be permanent.”

Grocery Outlet closes dozens of stores

And now, discount national supermarket chain Grocery Outlet said it will close 36 stores across the nation after expanding too quickly, the company said during its fourth quarter 2025 earnings call, Investing.com reported.

“Following a rigorous analysis of the fleet, we identified 36 stores in the network that we concluded did not have a viable path to sustained profitability, regardless of the operational support we could provide,” Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. CEO Jason Potter said in the earnings call.

“We’ve made the difficult decision to close 36 locations, 24 of which are located in the East, representing 30% of that region’s fleet,” Potter said. “We are not fully exiting any state, and we believe we have a meaningful opportunity to grow in the East over the long term.”

The company has not released a list of the 36 stores that will close.

Remaining Eastern stores are profitable

Potter said that the Emeryville, Calif.-based chain’s 51 remaining stores in the East are profitable and delivered a 3.3% comp in the fourth quarter.

“It’s clear now that we expanded too quickly, and these closures are a direct correction,” Potter said.

More closings:

• Bankrupt restaurant chains permanently close popular locations
• Major retail chain closes 35 stores nationwide, no bankruptcy
• Another major retail chain closes warehouse operations

The closing of the 36 stores, or about 6% of its locations, is expected to result in an annualized adjusted EBITDA improvement of about $12 million and enable the company to operate profitably in all of its markets, Potter said.

Grocery chain will add 30-33 stores

The 80-year-old company still plans to open 30-33 new stores in 2026 under a more disciplined approach.

For example, when Grocery Outlet opens new stores in Virginia later in 2026, the stores will start as company-run operations, bringing them up to profitability, before transferring them to independent operators.

Grocery Outlet, which was founded in 1946 in San Francisco as a cannery sales business, operates over 560 stores through its network of independent operators in 16 states.

Grocery Outlet’s territory:

• Alabama
• California
• Delaware
• Georgia
• Idaho
• Kentucky
• Maryland
• Nevada
• New Jersey
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Oregon
• Pennsylvania
• Tennessee
• Virginia
• Washington
• Source: Grocery Outlet

Related: 143-year-old grocery chain closes more locations, lays off dozens

Palantir (PLTR) stock just got a major nod of approval from Wall Street.

Veteran Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake just raised his price target on the defense AI giant’s stock to $200 from $150, while reiterating a Buy rating in a recent note. 

For perspective, Rosenblatt’s new $200 price target sits in the middle of the more lofty recent Wall Street calls on Palantir stock.

It’s below Citi’s $235, above UBS’s $180, and mostly in line with Deutsche Bank’s $200, while Mizuho stands lower at $195.

As of March 4, 2026 (at the time of writing), Palantir stock is trading at $147.22 as per Yahoo Finance. 

When I last covered Palantir stock, it was trading at about $139.54 that day (Feb. 4 close).

In that I covered CEO Alex Karp’s blunt eight-word message to investors: “We are an N-for-1 category of our own.”

Its comments came after Palantir released another earnings smasher, posting 70% Q4 revenue growth, spearheaded by a massive 93% jump in U.S. sales, along with a standout Rule of 127 score (growth plus operating margin). 

That said, McPeake’s bullish thesis on the stock hinges on a major macro shift underway.

According to him, the growing geopolitical tensions and the urgency of defense spending will likely transform Palantir into a mission-critical operating system that’s tailor-made for modern warfare and intelligence.

The recent U.S.–Iran conflict underscores Palantir’s unmatched value proposition as militaries increasingly rely on AI-powered decision tools.

Perhaps the biggest flashpoint in tech of late has been Anthropic’s pushback on AI warfare, sparking tensions with the U.S. government. 

The Guardian reports that Anthropic’s popular Claude model was used by the U.S. military in its strike operations, which helped effectively shorten the “kill chain”. Moreover, the AI model was integrated into the platform co-developed by Palantir and the Pentagon to improve decision-making and analysis.

However, according to MarketWatch, Claude is being phased out over the next six months. The model may go, but Palantir remains the stable platform powering the operational layer.

As controversial as that may sound and is, that’s exactly why McPeake believes Palantir’s long-term demand profile will continue to improve over time in the military AI realm.

Wall Street price targets for Palantir stock

• Citi boosted its target to $235.
• Mizuho moved to Outperform with a $195 target.
• UBS bumped its target to $180.
• Deutsche Bank raised its target to $200.
• Goldman Sachs trimmed its target to $182.
  Source: Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, Investing.

Rosenblatt’s John McPeake is a veteran Wall Street voice

Rosenblatt analyst John McPeake brings a remarkable 27 years of stock market experience to the table, with 18 years on the buy side and nine years on the sell side.

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His biggest stops over his illustrious career include Prudential Securities (where he was ranked by Institutional Investor) and Aquila Funds, where he was a portfolio manager.

On top of that, he spent a ton of time in hedge funds like Seminole Capital and P.A.W. Capital, and even ran his private TMT-focused hedge fund, which is why his notes strike a chord with traders and long-term investors alike.

According to Tipranks, 13 of the last 22 ratings have made a profit, for a nearly 60% success rate.

McPeake’s coverage includes the biggest names in software, infrastructure, AI, and quantum computing, putting him at the forefront of many emerging tech narratives.

Related: Morgan Stanley delivers curt 2-word verdict on S&P 500

Palantir stock returns vs the S&P 500

• 1W: Palantir stock 14.27% vs. the S&P 500-1.07%.
• 1M: Palantir stock -6.75% vs. the S&P 500 -1.46%.
• 6M: Palantir stock -4.96% vs. the S&P 500 5.71%.
• YTD: Palantir stock -17.18% vs. the S&P 500 -0.42%.
• 1Y: Palantir stock 76.48% vs. the S&P 500 16.53%.
• 3Y: Palantir stock 1,667.35% vs. the S&P 500 68.49%.
  Source: Seeking Alpha.

Rosenblatt says geopolitics is reshaping Palantir’s growth story

Rosenblatt’s McPeake believes that Palantir’s role in the broader AI ecosystem is evolving quickly than the market appreciates. 

At the heart of it, as mentioned earlier, are rising global tensions that continue to drive demand for powerful battlefield software platforms.

In fact, according to Grand View Research, the global AI in military market is expected to skyrocket from $9.31 billion (2024) to $19.29 billion by 2030 (about 13% CAGR). 

Consequently, Rosenblatt believes the pertinent shift could make Palantir a mission-critical player in the military AI space. 

Additionally, Rosenblatt pushed back on the idea that the platform is just  “wrapping” third-party AI models. 

To better understand Palantir, think of it as a “data refinery.”

A typical oil refinery takes messy crude oil and turns it into usable fuels. Similarly, Palantir’s powerful software platform takes colossal amounts of raw, unstructured defense data (from satellites, sensors, databases, and reports), and cleans, corrects, and organizes it into something that’s useful for decision-makers. 

Related: Bank of America drops blunt message on the economy

It layers data from a wide variety of sources, applying data analytics and AI models to deliver powerful operational insights. 

This is exactly where Palantir’s positioning matters. 

As we’re seeing with the Anthropic saga, agencies can switch or combine different AI models on Palantir’s platform without rebuilding systems from the ground up. 

So clearly, Palantir’s true value isn’t in the model itself, but the infrastructure that deploys it, oversees it, and utilizes it to make real-world decisions.

That’s exactly why, in mid-last year, Reuters reported that the U.S. Army consolidated more than 75 software agreements into a mega enterprise deal (up $10 billion) with Palantir for over 10 years.

It’s important to note that, from a valuation standpoint, Rosenblatt framed its new price target on Palantir stock using nearly 88-times projected 2027 earnings, which implies a price-earnings growth ratio near 1.2 times, up from about 0.9 times previously. 

So clearly, investors will need to pay a significantly higher growth-adjusted multiple as Palantir’s long-term demand outlook improves.

At the same time, its rich stock valuation leaves virtually little to no room for missteps.

Related: 5-star analyst resets Broadcom price target before earnings

Berkshire Hathaway is in a rare position. Although it is typically regarded as one of the most stable stocks, given the current market conditions, no stock is infallible.

The company failed to wow investors with its most recent set of earnings, falling short of expectations. And the latest stockholder letter didn’t help.

New CEO Greg Abel, penning his first shareholder letter, struck a very cautious tone but made one thing crystal clear. Berkshire isn’t in any mood to waste money. The investment company is sitting on a huge cash pile, but that is not something up for grabs.

“While some of this capital is required to support our insurance operations and protect Berkshire against extreme scenarios, it also constitutes our dry powder,” Abel wrote.

At the same time, Abel saw the need for a conciliatory tone. He said the company is not shying away from deal-making.

“Many times in Berkshire’s history, some observers have suggested that our substantial cash position signals a retreat from investing. It does not.”

However, investors continue to ask the same questions they have had for years. When does that “dry powder” actually get deployed? More importantly, what happens if it doesn’t?

The market’s initial reaction was blunt. Berkshire’s Class A shares fell by as much as 5.3%, and Class B shares fell by about the same amount. This was the biggest drop since Warren Buffett said in May 2025 that Abel would become CEO in 2026.

Operating profit, BRK drop as insurance and key businesses show pressure

Berkshire’s operating profit for the fourth quarter fell 30% to $10.2 billion. (Operating profit excludes gains and losses from Berkshire’s stock holdings, including Apple, and is often the cleanest snapshot of how the underlying businesses performed.)

Insurance, unfortunately, is the main pressure point.

Related: Samsung shocks Apple in smartphone war

Berkshire said Geico, alongside other insurance companies, posted a 38% overall decline.

The worst part is that Abel believes the pattern is not going to break. Instead, the insurance companies will repeatedly come under pressure to retain customers as competitors cut rates.

“GEICO’s broad rate increases… have restored margins but come at the cost of lower retention,” Abel wrote. “Competitors’ rate reductions may extend that pressure into 2026.”

Analyst Meyer Shields of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said the results “broadly” missed expectations, thanks to weakness at BNSF and in the energy, manufacturing, and retail sectors.

Shields cut his earnings forecast for 2026 by 5% and rates Berkshire as underperforming.

Berkshire Hathaway’s cash question gets louder as buybacks stay quiet

For long-term Berkshire holders, volatility in quarterly results isn’t usually something they are looking out for. Instead, the bigger narrative is capital allocation.

At the moment, it seems the iconic asset manager is in a visibly conservative posture.

• Roughly $370 billion-plus in cash and U.S. Treasuries (Abel pegged it as “dry powder”)
• No stock buybacks for about 18 months, with no clear signal on resuming
• No dividend, and no hint of a policy change

Abel gave, yet again, the same logic for not paying dividends. The company won’t pay one until each dollar of retained earnings is “reasonably likely” to create more than one dollar of market value for shareholders.

He also said there will likely be more of a focus on buybacks only when Berkshire shares trade below a conservatively determined estimate of intrinsic value.

That discipline is core to the Berkshire brand. However, after the earnings report dropped, investors suddenly wanted more.

The Abel transition is here, and tone matters more than ever

For me, Berkshire hathaway’s dip isn’t an “earnings miss” story. Instead, it’s a succession story.

Buffett had led Berkshire since 1965. He is as iconic as it gets from a CEO perspective. Consider the close relationship between Apple and Steve Jobs or the influence of Elon Musk on Tesla. The moment you hear these names, you think back to their CEOs.

The same is the case with Buffett, and he happens to still be the chairman of the company. His succession is therefore causing some headaches.

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Abel took over as CEO on Jan. 1, 2026, and his letter leaned heavily into continuity, culture, and long-term thinking.

“Our role is stewardship,” Abel wrote. “Your capital is commingled with ours, but it does not belong to us.”

In his letter, Abel was thoughtful regarding what the future holds for the company. He was explicit in saying that Berkshire holds a competitive advantage due to its culture. Abel also reiterated the late Vice Chairman Charlie Munger’s reassurance from May 1, 2021.

Abel’s framing is simple, straightforward, and razor-sharp. Berkshire is not driven by personality. Instead, it’s foremost a system.

On the other hand, the market is throwing up a straightforward challenge: prove the system works without Buffett making the final call.

Berkshire by the numbers: what Abel highlighted from 2025

Abel’s letter gives a more in-depth look at how things are going, helping explain why Berkshire is both confident and cautious.

Key 2025 financial snapshots

• Operating earnings: $44.5 billion in 2025, down from $47.4 billion in 2024
• Cash flow from operating activities: $46 billion in 2025, compared with a five-year average of more than $40 billion
• Cash and U.S. Treasury holdings: Now exceeding $370 billion
• Insurance float: $176 billion at year-end 2025, up from $171 billion at the end of 2024 (and up from $88 billion at the end of 2015)

Insurance cycle signals (and why investors care)

Abel said that in the second half of 2025, the insurance industry saw “a deceleration or reversal” in pricing and policy-term trends.

He thinks this could mean that Berkshire writes less property and casualty business for a period of time.

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He also disclosed an underwriting milestone.

Combined ratio (property and casualty): 87.1% in 2025, better than Berkshire’s five-year average of 90.7%, 10-year average of 93.0%, and 20-year average of 92.2%.

That’s a strong underwriting result.

However, Abel’s warning is more speculation about the road ahead. More money is going into primary insurance and reinsurance, which can lower prices and lower returns.

Non-insurance businesses: BNSF, energy, manufacturing and retail in focus

Abel took the opportunity to set expectations for several operating segments. These include BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

BNSF: operational improvements, but not enough (yet)

BNSF produced $8.1 billion in net operating cash flows in 2025 and disbursed $4.4 billion to Berkshire in the form of dividends.

Abel said the company improved its operating margin to 34.5% from 32.0% in 2024. However, he stressed that closing the gap to the industry’s best remains a priority.

Interestingly, he expressed this improvement in monetary terms. Each one-percentage-point improvement in operating margin generates approximately $230 million of incremental operating cash flow.

Berkshire Hathaway Energy: AI demand meets wildfire risk

Abel, in the letter, also interestingly touched upon an industry investment cycle that is fueled by rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence computing. In addition, wildfire risk is growing, especially in the Western U.S.

He said the firm will pursue hyperscaler and data-center growth. But it is crucial to strike an appropriate balance between the risks and rewards. Abel has also talked about the importance of the “regulatory compact,” which lets utilities make a fair profit on the money they invest.

The equity portfolio: Berkshire’s core holdings (and what they pay)

Berkshire’s equity portfolio continues to grow, but it’s still concentrated on a handful of long-term positions.

Abel frames the concentration as intentional.

Here are Berkshire’s biggest U.S. equity holdings by market value at Dec. 31, 2025, as listed in the letter.

• Apple (AAPL): $61.962 billion market value; $280 million in 2025 dividends
• American Express (AXP): $56.088 billion; $479 million in 2025 dividends
• Coca-Cola (KO): $27.964 billion; $816 million in 2025 dividends
• Moody’s (MCO): $12.603 billion; $93 million in 2025 dividends

Abel also talked about Berkshire’s major investments in Japan, such as Mitsubishi, Itochu, Mitsui, Marubeni, and Sumitomo.

Added to the U.S. core holdings, the positions were worth $194 billion in market value, which is almost two-thirds of Berkshire’s equity securities portfolio. These assets produced $2.5 billion in combined dividends, yielding roughly 10% on their original cost basis.

What Berkshire did buy: 2 acquisitions Abel called out

Investors looking for action did end up with one piece of very valuable information. Berkshire announced acquisitions of OxyChem and Bell Laboratories in 2025, a clear sign that there is still significant action to be seen when it comes to Berkshire.

Abel framed both as classic Berkshire: businesses that are easy to understand, have steady demand, and good managers. He also said something very Berkshire-like about Bell Laboratories (which controls rodents).

That subtle sentence encapsulates the essence of Berkshire. The company is so big now that even “good” deals can seem like they don’t matter. This is one reason the cash pile keeps growing.

Why this matters for Berkshire shareholders now

The immediate story is that Berkshire shareholders are feeling the heat. After a rare misstep in earnings season, the firm is entering a new phase where:

• The insurance market may be less forgiving (especially at Geico).
• Some operating units have shown uneven performance.
• Berkshire is sitting on an enormous cash hoard.
• Buybacks remain paused.
• Investors are watching Abel’s every move.

Abel’s message during this time is unmistakable. He says Berkshire’s “fortress-like balance sheet” is strategic. It’s not accidental that it has a cash stockpile that size. 

The market’s message back, at least for now, is simple: We are willing to show patience, but you need to prove why we should. 

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The streaming market is changing quickly. In 2026, while giants like Netflix and Amazon Prime still hold the largest subscriber bases, free ad-supported streaming TV (FAST) is growing at an impressive rate. 

This shift in streaming preferences is related to the economy, which is making consumers more cautious about each spending, carefully choosing value. With the tightening of our budgets, ads don’t seem so annoying anymore. After all, entertainment is not an essential expense. 

Key industry metrics: 

• Growth rate: The FAST revenue model is recording a 14.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), outpacing the growth of traditional subscription services. 
• Revenue projections: Global FAST revenue is set to hit $12 billion by 2027. 
• Time: 72.4% of the time U.S. viewers spend with television is ad-supported, and streaming represents 42.4% of that viewing. 
• Content freshness:  Nearly 50% of FAST programming was produced in the last five years, compared to only about 33% on premium subscription video on demand (SVOD) platforms.
  Sources: Mordor Intelligence 2026, WiFi Talents, Nielsen 2025, Nielsen/Gracenote 2025/2026

I previously reported that the majority of streaming giants hiked prices in 2025, giving consumers another reason to switch to cheaper or free alternatives. 

Industry data show that in the later half of 2025, the dominant powers in the FAST sector were Roku, Tubi, Pluto, and Prime Video.

A standout moment occurred in December 2025, when The Roku Channel captured a record-breaking 3% share of total U.S. television viewership. This is more than Paramount+ and close to Amazon Prime Video, according to Nielsen. 

Roku adds 17 new channels 

To retain and attract subscribers, streaming giants need to frequently update their content offerings and introduce new or improve current features. Earlier in February, Roku expanded its free streaming library with 17 new live channels.

The extended library includes CNN Xpress with continuous news coverage, in addition to regional programs such as Canada TV. The expansion also added niche channels focused on wellness, Spanish-language comedy, and action films.

The total of 17 new live channels on Roku includes: 

• CTV News
• Filmed Comedia
• SobreVivi
• Filmex Accion
• CNN Xpress
• “The Bernie Mac Show”
• “Felicity”
• “America’s Funniest Home Videos”
• “Pokemon”
• “Blossom”
• “Cougar Town”
• MeatEaters
• FuelTV
• Telemundo Puerto Rico
• Vas No Vas USA
• Willow Sports
• Multi Camaras
  Source: Cord Cutters News 

These offerings, located within the “Live TV” zone of the Roku interface, are accessible to any user with a Roku device, with no monthly subscription or cable provider authentication required. 

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“This addition enhances the platform’s already extensive library of free content, providing viewers with diverse programming options across genres such as classic sitcoms, animated series, sports, action films, comedy, news, and lifestyle content without requiring any subscription fees,” wrote industry expert Luke Bouma for Cord Cutters News.  

More recently, Roku made another important move that surprised users. 

Roku launches a dedicated Search tool within the Live TV Guide 

Roku has finally rolled out a dedicated Search tool within the Live TV Guide, something users have been requesting, Cord Cutters News reported. 

Previously, navigating Roku’s hundreds of free, ad-supported channels was more complicated. Even when users knew what channel or program they wanted to watch, they often had to manually scroll through a long list or use category filters. 

“This update makes it easier to use Roku’s extensive collection of hundreds of free, ad-supported live channels available through the Roku Live Guide making navigation more intuitive for users on Roku TVs and Roku players,” points out Bouma. 

How to use Roku’s new Search option 

The new Search option appears on the left-hand side of the interface, next to existing categories like sports and news. And it solves a key problem: scrolling fatigue. 

By selecting Search, users can enter the name of a favorite channel, genre, or related word using the on-screen keyboard or, where supported, voice commands. 

Results should appear quickly, guiding users to the preferred content without the need for long scrolling. 

The search simplifies access to desired content, especially now, as Roku’s free, live channels have surpassed 500.  

Roku’s recent improvements and milestones 

Following the addition of 11 new channels in late 2025 — ranging from BBC News and “Home Improvement” to “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?” — the company recently unveiled exclusive bundles. 

“The company is rolling out new streaming bundles, expanding its $3 subscription service, Howdy, to more platforms, and partnering with more premium streaming services following the successful addition of HBO Max,” according to Tech Crunch. 

Financially, Roku had a strong 2025. The company reported $4.74 billion in total revenue, which is a 15% increase from the previous year. Their platform revenue alone hit $4.15 billion (up 18% year over year), while users streamed a record 145.6 billion hours of content.

Looking ahead to 2026, CEO Anthony Wood noted during the earnings call that Roku is “on track to surpass 100 million streaming households this year.” He pointed out that Roku now powers nearly half of all U.S. TV streaming, reported Market Beat. 

As competition among both traditional streaming providers and FAST services heats up, new tools like Search and constant content upgrades help Roku maintain its competitive edge. 

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Jamie Dimon is not worried about AI destroying humanity. He is focused on something more immediate: making sure companies and governments are ready for what is coming before it arrives.

Speaking on Bloomberg Television this week, the JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO laid out a sweeping vision of how artificial intelligence will reshape the economy over the next few decades. His headline prediction: future generations will likely work three and a half days a week and live to 100, thanks to what AI makes possible in medicine, productivity, and human output.

“Your children are going to live to 100 and not have cancer because of technology,” Dimon said, “and literally they’ll probably be working three and a half days a week.” He called it “a wonderful thing,” but he was equally direct about what comes before that future arrives.

The displacement problem Dimon is not sugarcoating

Dimon acknowledged plainly that AI is already eliminating jobs at JPMorgan and that the disruption will spread well beyond banking. He said the bank has already displaced workers through AI and has built what he called “huge redeployment plans” to move affected employees into new roles.

“We have displaced people from AI, and we offer them other jobs,” he said at a separate investor meeting last week. “It will eliminate jobs. People should stop sticking their heads in the sand.”

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His concern is not just about individual companies managing the shift. He wants governments to act now, not after the disruption has already hit. That means retraining programs, income support for displaced workers, and education reform built for an AI economy, not the one from 20 years ago.

What JPMorgan is doing internally

JPMorgan is not waiting on the sidelines. The bank has the largest annual technology budget in the financial industry at nearly $20 billion, and AI is now embedded across its operations. Over 200,000 employees use the bank’s proprietary LLM Suite, the firm’s internal generative AI platform, with more than half using it multiple times a day.

JPMorgan has doubled its generative AI use cases over the past year, targeting more than 1,000 by the end of 2026. The results are already showing up in the numbers. Software engineers are 10% more efficient. Operations staff are handling 6% more accounts per person. Fraud-related costs are down 11% per unit.

Where JPMorgan is already using AI today

• Fraud detection and real-time pattern recognition across millions of daily transactions
• Risk modeling and trading desk signal generation
• Customer service automation resolving routine queries
• Document review and compliance scanning at scale
• Wealth management advisory tools helping advisers respond to clients up to 95% faster during market volatility

The bigger picture Dimon is painting

Dimon’s optimism about AI’s long-term potential is not new. He has previously compared AI to electricity and the printing press in terms of its transformative power. But what stood out Monday was the specificity of his timeline and his insistence that the benefits are real, not theoretical.

He pointed to potential breakthroughs in cancer treatment, food safety, and transportation as areas where AI could compound gains across industries, not just in finance. The shorter workweek, in his framing, is not just about doing less. It is about what happens when human productivity reaches a level where five days of output becomes achievable in three and a half.

Dimon has long been a fierce advocate for in-office work and hard-nosed career discipline. That makes his three-and-a-half-day workweek prediction all the more striking. It is not coming from someone who romanticizes flexibility. It is coming from someone who has spent decades pushing people to work harder, and who now believes technology will make that calculus obsolete.

What workers and investors should take from this

The message for workers is clear: the transition is already underway, and the companies best positioned to absorb it are the ones actively retraining their people now rather than waiting for the disruption to force their hand. JPMorgan’s own workforce offers a live case study. Its overall headcount has stayed roughly flat at 318,512, but the composition has shifted significantly underneath that headline number, with operations and support roles declining as revenue-generating and client-facing roles grow.

For investors, Dimon’s framing suggests AI productivity gains are still in early innings, and the companies that have invested heavily in infrastructure and workforce integration will pull further ahead. JPMorgan, by its CEO’s own account, intends to be one of them.

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There’s a disconnect between valuations and sentiment in the equity markets right now, and it’s costing Intuit investors real money.

JPMorgan cut its price target on the TurboTax and QuickBooks parent to $605 from $750 last week, according to MarketBeat. 

The bank kept its “overweight” rating intact, suggesting the investment firm remains bullish on the dividend stock.

But the lower target reflects a market gripped by fear that artificial intelligence will upend traditional software businesses.

For Intuit (INTU) shareholders, it stings. The stock has fallen more than 35% year to date and is down almost 50% from all-time highs.

That’s a steep drop for a company that just reported 17% revenue growth and raised its quarterly dividend by 15%.

So what’s actually going on here?

Is Intuit a top dividend stock to own right now?

Intuit has raised its annual dividend from $1.20 per share to $4.80 per share over the past decade, per data from Fiscal.ai. 

Its annual dividend expense is forecast at $1.3 billion, while analysts estimate free cash flow at $7.37 billion in fiscal 2026 (ending in July). With a payout ratio below 20%, Intuit’s dividend is well-covered. 

Analysts forecast the annual dividend to increase to $6.4 per share in fiscal 2029, significantly enhancing the yield-at-cost. 

Key INTU stock dividend metrics

• Quarterly dividend: $1.20 per share
• Annual dividend: $4.80 per share
• Dividend increase: 15% year-over-year
• Dividend yield: Approximately 1.2%, based on recent share price levels
• Payout ratio: Roughly 18% on a FCF basis
• Dividend growth streak: Consistent for more than a decade

The low payout ratio is worth noting. It means Intuit is paying out a small fraction of cash flow as a dividend, giving it flexibility to keep raising payments, even if earnings growth slows.

Intuit just posted a strong quarter 

Software companies have long been valued for sticky subscriptions and reliable renewals. Now, AI threatens to automate workflows, squeeze pricing, and lower the barrier to entry for new competitors.

Despite the stock’s brutal slide, Intuit’s business results tell a different story. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the company posted$4.7 billion in revenue, up 17% year over year.

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Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $4.15, up from $3.32 a year ago.

The company’s mid-market platform is gaining real traction. 

• Online Ecosystem revenue for QuickBooks Online Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite grew approximately 40% in the quarter. 
• New contracts for Intuit Enterprise Suite grew nearly 50% quarter over quarter.
• On the consumer side, TurboTax revenue grew 12%, even as total IRS returns were down more than five points through Feb. 6. 

CEO Sasan Goodarzi pushed back hard on the AI disruption narrative during the company’s earnings call.

His argument: Intuit operates in a regulated, high-stakes financial environment where accuracy, compliance, and human expertise aren’t optional.

Intuit also announced a new multiyear partnership with Anthropic, the very company whose new tools rattled markets, to power personalized financial experiences.

The company said its proprietary customer data remains within its own systems.

What is next for INTU stock price?

JPMorgan’s move to $605 reflects the macro pressure on software valuations more than any fundamental problem inside Intuit’s business.

The “overweight” rating remains. The implied upside from current prices remains significant, at more than 55%.

Wall Street forecastsadjusted earnings per share to expand from $20.15 per share in fiscal 2025 to $33.21 per share in 2029. 

If INTU stock is priced at 20x forward earnings, which is below its 10-year average of 33.5x, it could rise by 60% over the next 30 months. 

Out of the 20 analysts covering INTU stock, 17 recommend “buy,” and three recommend “hold.” The average Intuit stock price target is $606, indicating an upside potential of 48% from current levels. 

Still, the AI disruption debate isn’t going away anytime soon. Until investors get more clarity on whether tools like Anthropic’s Cowork genuinely threaten software incumbents or simply complement them, stocks such as Intuit may continue to face pressure regardless of what the earnings reports show.

The numbers say one thing, but the market is saying something else right now.

Related: JPMorgan drops blunt take on software stocks AI threat

At its best, technology should make shopping in a store easier while freeing up human workers for customer service and other tasks that people do better than automation or artificial intelligence (AI).

Walmart has been pretty insistent that its use of AI will be a benefit for customers and employees.

“Being people-led and tech-powered helps our associates to find better ways to serve customers and members with our growing assortment, faster delivery speeds, and experiences they love. […]AI is helping us create great customer solutions, reduce friction, simplify decision-making, and [manage] inventory,” Walmart CEO John Furner shared during the chain’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

Aside from helping customers, technology can also be used in ways that primarily benefit the company. Uber’s surge pricing, for example, where rides cost more during peak hours, may be good for the ride-sharing service, and perhaps its drivers, but customers lose out.

When Wendy’s hinted at potentially using dynamic or surge pricing, the backlash was severe, and the company quickly abandoned the plan. Now, Walmart is implementing technology in all its stores that would make using a dynamic pricing model — where the price of items changes quickly based on demand — much easier.

Walmart rolls out digital pricing

Digital shelf labels, or DSLs, allow Walmart to change or set prices on items without a worker physically having to change the price tag. That’s a huge saving on labor hours, according to the retailer.

Walmart has been aggressive in pointing out the positives of this technology and its impact on the company’s employees.

“Today, roughly 2,300 Walmart U.S. locations are already using digital shelf labels, and we expect this technology to be chain-wide within the next year. For our associates, that expansion can’t come soon enough,” Walmart shared in a press release.

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The chain laid out the labor argument.

“Walmart stores carry tens of thousands of items, and every single one needs to have a clear, accurate shelf price. Between new inventory, Rollbacks and markdowns, pricing updates stack up fast and can take hours, if not days, to complete,” it shared.

What the chain does not mention in its press release is that DSLs would also make it much easier for the chain to implement dynamic pricing.

Walmart says it won’t use dynamic pricing

Walmart has made it clear that the change to DSLs does not mean the beginning of the implementation of dynamic pricing.

“It is absolutely not going to be ‘one hour it is this price, and the next hour it is not,'” Greg Cathey, senior vice president of transformation and innovation at Walmart, said in a statement to CBS News. 

But there’s nothing stopping the chain from speeding up how it adjusts prices, which could mean raising or lowering prices faster than it previously did.

“I do not think we will see Walmart introduce dynamic pricing anytime soon,” Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData’s retail division, told CBS. “A lot of shoppers use Walmart because it has low prices, and Walmart has worked very hard to establish trust with the customer.”

Walmart stands by its low prices

“The DSL program is not designed for dynamic pricing,” Walmart spokesperson Cristina Rodrigues told Retail Brew in a statement. “Walmart adheres to Everyday Low Price. The DSLs make it easier for associates to add pricing on shelves for new products, and update pricing related to planned Rollback and Final Clearance products.”

Many states have laws that prevent chains from “price gouging” during a storm, a product shortage, or another emergency.

“Price gouging refers to when retailers and others take advantage of spikes in demand by charging exorbitant prices for necessities, often after a natural disaster or other state of emergency,” the National Conference of State Legislatures shared on its website. 

Early data show that consumers have actually benefited from the technology.

“ESLs eliminate manual price changes, reduce operational costs by up to 30%, and enable dynamic pricing strategies that respond to demand fluctuations, competitor actions, and inventory levels. A 2024 study found that adoption led to a 15% increase in discount frequency without significant price surges, suggesting that retailers are using the technology to enhance value for consumers,” AInvest reported.

Consumers are worried about automated pricing

In a Gartner Consumer Community survey of U.S. consumers conducted in October 2024, 80% agreed that brands with consistent pricing are more trustworthy, and 42% would be willing to spend more on a product if consistent pricing were guaranteed.

“Seventy-nine percent of 1,532 respondents to Gartner’s 2024 Cultural Attitudes and Behavior Survey conducted in September and October 2024 reported experiencing an unexpected price scenario in the last year, ranging from surge pricing to hidden fees to unforeseen rate hikes,” Gartner shared.

Consumers remain wary of retailers.

“While inflation may have eased, suspicion and frustration have not — and these negative sentiments are fueling distrust and price paranoia,” said Kate Muhl, VP analyst in the Gartner Marketing practice. “As a result, consumer loyalty is diminished, and the brand relationship hardens into something more adversarial.”

Consumers, it should be noted, broadly oppose the use of dynamic pricing.

“Over two-thirds (68%) of U.S. adults somewhat or strongly agree that dynamic pricing (the practice of raising prices when demand is high and dropping them when demand is low) is price gouging,” according to a March 2024 CivicScience survey.

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