Redfin reported from Seattle, Washington, on November 9 that U.S. condo sellers outnumbered buyers by an estimated 123% in September, the widest gap in its records dating to 2013. The national imbalance did not apply everywhere: Nassau County, New York, remained a seller’s market, while Newark and New Brunswick, New Jersey, were among markets the brokerage classified as balanced.
The company’s report estimated 197,248 condo sellers and 88,460 buyers nationwide in September. Estimated buyers declined 2.5% from August, while sellers rose 0.9%. A 123% seller surplus means roughly 2.23 sellers for each buyer in Redfin’s estimates; it does not mean prices fell by 123% or that every condo seller is unable to find a buyer.
The gap widened from 95.5% a year earlier and reversed conditions during the pandemic housing boom. Redfin said September 2021 had 25.1% fewer sellers than buyers. Over five years, its estimated number of condo buyers fell 54% while sellers rose 36%. These figures describe September conditions released on November 9, not a live count of people seeking condos today.
The national median condo sale price fell 0.8% from a year earlier to about $339,000 in September, according to Redfin. About 37% of condos sold that month had an asking-price reduction, compared with 16% five years earlier. The typical sold condo spent 63 days on the market before going under contract, up from 35 days. A national median and the experience of homes that sold do not establish what any particular unsold unit is worth.
For buyers, a larger choice of listings can create room to negotiate, but the purchase price is only part of the cost. Redfin identified insurance premiums, homeowners association fees and special assessments as pressures on condo ownership, particularly in Florida and Texas. A lower offer price does not remove ongoing building charges or the risk of a future assessment for major repairs.
Local differences are large. Redfin estimated 459% more condo sellers than buyers in San Antonio, 322% more in Houston and 274% more in Miami. Nassau County had an estimated 1,052 sellers and 1,545 buyers, about 32% fewer sellers than buyers, and was the only seller’s market among the 50 most populous metro areas analyzed. That comparison is limited to those markets, not every locality in the country.
Newark and New Brunswick were classified as balanced, along with Chicago, Milwaukee and San Francisco, because the difference between buyers and sellers was within 10%. Newark can have slightly more buyers than sellers without meeting the threshold for a seller’s market. The New York and New Jersey exceptions are a reason not to apply the national surplus directly to a particular neighborhood or building.
The estimates offer a measure of negotiating conditions, not a forecast of future sale prices or a guarantee of affordability. The release does not set out the full buyer-estimation methodology, building-level insurance or association costs, or terms available to an individual buyer. The full report it links was unavailable when checked. Those limits matter when using a national estimate to make a local housing decision: a building’s finances, actual comparable sales and total ownership cost still need separate review.
JBizNews Desk | Seattle, Washington / New York and New Jersey
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