Prominent Scottish historian Niall Ferguson thinks the U.S. may be heading for a recession, and he’s pointing to a 50-year-old playbook to explain why.
In a Free Press essay, Ferguson argued that Operation Epic Fury is following the same pattern as Nixon’s 1973 airlift to Israel during the Yom Kippur War: President makes a bold pro-Israel military move, oil supply gets disrupted in retaliation and then economic damage arrives faster than the diplomacy.
In 1973, it took four months to lift the Arab oil embargo. By then, the US was already in recession.
Recession Odds Are Climbing Fast
Polymarket’s “US recession by end of 2026” contract sits at 35%, up more than 10% since before the conflict began.
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said that oil prices would only need to average …
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