Photo: Goose Green Photography (archive photo)
The U.S. average gasoline price could fall below $4 a gallon within the next week if the decline in oil holds, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said Monday, offering drivers a possible further break after a broad fall in pump prices.
In his Monday social-media update, De Haan said lower wholesale gasoline and diesel prices were pointing toward roughly a 16-cent-per-gallon decline. His prediction that the national gasoline average could move under $4 was explicitly conditional: “barring a course change.” It was not a report that the national average had already crossed that mark.
AAA’s national price table for November 2 showed regular gasoline averaging $4.1694 a gallon, or about $4.17 when rounded to cents. That was below its $4.2858 reading a week earlier and $4.3961 a month earlier. Different price surveys do not produce identical averages: GasBuddy’s separate Monday report put its national average at $4.12.
Relief at the pump, with a geopolitical condition
De Haan linked his forecast to a sharp fall in oil prices as markets responded to signals favoring negotiations rather than new attacks on Iran. A lower oil price can reduce the cost of making gasoline, while falling wholesale fuel prices give stations room to lower their retail prices as inventories turn over.
That does not make the result automatic. The analyst’s condition matters because a reversal in oil, another disruption to refining or renewed conflict could interrupt the decline before the national average reaches $4.
In GasBuddy’s weekly report, De Haan said average gasoline prices had fallen in nearly every state as refinery maintenance wound down and seasonal demand faded with cooler weather. The company’s average was down 17.1 cents over the week, based on more than 12 million individual reports covering over 150,000 stations.
He also warned that volatility could return quickly after the election, depending on whether attacks resumed or a truce took hold around the Strait of Hormuz, and on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. The weekly report’s warning and Monday’s under-$4 forecast describe the same uncertainty: there is a path to lower fuel costs, but it depends on conditions holding.
A national average is not every driver’s price
GasBuddy said the median gasoline price and the most commonly encountered price were already $3.99 a gallon. Those measures differ from an average: high-priced stations and expensive states can keep the national mean above the price many drivers actually see.
The spread remains large. GasBuddy’s report put the average among the most expensive tenth of stations at $5.60 a gallon, against $3.33 among the cheapest tenth. Crossing $4 nationally would therefore not mean every station was selling below $4.
Diesel remained a separate source of pressure for freight businesses. AAA’s Monday table showed a $6.2921 national diesel average, while GasBuddy’s own survey put it at $6.281. De Haan’s under-$4 prediction referred to gasoline, not diesel.
JBizNews Desk | New York
© JBizNews.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution is strictly prohibited.
