Photo: Molly Roberts / White House (archive)
Tip your hat to the Islamic regime.
Israel and the US clobbered Iran in both June 2025 and early 2026, and the Trump administration outplayed Tehran with its counter-blockade in recent months.
Yet, following the US midterm election on Tuesday, if the regime wants, it can now simply outlast US President Donald Trump.
In January, the Democrats will be able to pressure Trump with investigations, holding up appointments, and even freezing defense budgets in order to force him out of the mix with Iran.
This is a battle he can postpone, but cannot really win.
That is because it is clear that both Democrats and Republicans (see the results in Texas, South Carolina, and other states which Democrats almost never win in) heavily soured on the war – or to be more precise its impact on their gas prices.
Iran regime prefers to avoid long-term concessions on nuclear program
This was a cold-hearted calculation that the regime made at various points when it could have started rebuilding the country and improving the economy much earlier if it made concessions on the nuclear program.
Instead, it preferred to hold onto the remnants of its nuclear program – and just not to concede anything long-term.
To put this ridiculous decision in rational terms: Iran has not been able to newly enrich uranium since June 2025. It may be a year or more before it can enrich uranium again, even if it reaches a point where US pressure is lifted. What would it have lost if it had conceded to a three year uranium freeze? Nothing. Maybe a few months.
But many Westerners never understood the messianic and fanatical character of the regime.
They do not care about their people’s suffering, no matter how low the rial currency dips.
This regime killed over 10,000 and according to some tens of thousands of its own people, in January and at other periods in 2026, simply to prevent protests from possibly getting out of hand, which then might have later threatened their iron rule.
Their patience works in years and decades, not weeks and months.
They fought a losing war with Iraq in the 1980s for eight years, until the sides agreed to a ceasefire in which Iraq’s superior firepower did not dictate the terms.
Anyone who advised Trump that a four week or six week war, or four or six months of a counter-blockade would for sure crack the regime, did not study their history.
So now what?
Trump could still attack Iran with Israel.
This could push back the regime’s nuclear program and ballistic programs some more.
It could also reduce Iran’s overall military power, and further weaken pieces of the regime.
Or Trump could opt for a weak deal with Iran, seeing the writing on the wall having lost Congress, or get forced into such a deal later.
And even if Trump and Israel attack Iran in the coming days or weeks, the regime will not be toppled in that time period, and it can still resist any deal it does not want to agree to.
What are Israel’s interests?
First, Israel must realize that whether there is a third round of war with Iran soon or not, Washington and Jerusalem are about to diverge on the Islamic Republic.
Israel should act to get the best deal possible on the nuclear issue which Trump cares about and where US Democrats also will not want to look overly weak, as opposed to ballistic missiles where even Trump could care less.
The Jewish state should make clear what its redlines are to both Trump and the incoming ruling Democrats so that if Iran breaks those redlines in the future, either on the nuclear or ballistic missile issue, there will be little surprise and the damage to US relations will be mitigated.
Israel could even cut a secret deal with Trump and Congressional Democrats about giving them a period of last chance weeks or months to cut a follow-deal with Iran in two years or four years, before it decides to attack, so that opposition to an attack, if it becomes necessary, will be reduced.
Most importantly, Israel must both simultaneously carry out far more dialogue and coordination with the US and European allies regarding Iran than it has done in recent years, while also remembering that if “judgment day” comes, the Jewish state must always be ready to act alone to ensure its survival.
