The Iraqi government has given the country’s pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias until the end of September to disarm, as Israeli defense officials closely monitor the situation amid concerns that the groups could seek to “flex their muscles” and launch attacks against Israel after the deadline expires.
So far, the militias have rejected the demand, but have conveyed messages that they would agree to discuss disarmament only after a complete withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.
The pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias in Iraq are funded by the Iranian regime, and some of their weapons depots are located near Iraq’s borders. The militias have drawn increased attention from Israel’s intelligence community in recent weeks.
In recent years, the Shi’ite militias in Iraq have aligned themselves with Iranian and Houthi policy and launched cruise missiles and drones toward Israel. The IDF responded, while Israel’s political leadership in Jerusalem sent clear messages to Baghdad that unless the militias were restrained, the Israeli response would intensify accordingly.
The challenge facing Israeli intelligence, which, according to foreign reports, has established bases throughout Iraq to closely monitor Iranian activity, is the country’s vast geographic expanse. The enormous distances pose difficulties for any intelligence organization attempting to locate the key centers of activity of the Iran-backed militias and strike their main weapons depots.
US played central role in pushing Iraqi government to restrain pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias
During the war, as well as during Operation Roaring Lion, the United States played a central role in mediation and in conveying messages to the Iraqi government demanding that it restrain the pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias. According to the US position, the militias, like the Houthis, are undermining stability in the Middle East. The Americans also called for the groups to disarm, warning that otherwise they would respond militarily.
Following American pressure, though not because of it alone, the Iraqi government issued an ultimatum ordering the militias to disarm and hand their weapons over to the state. In exchange for the disarmament, the Iraqi government offered the withdrawal of US military troops from Iraq.
The Iraqi ultimatum expires at the end of September. The pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias, led by Kataib Hezbollah, have flatly rejected the demand to disarm. They have, however, agreed to discuss the issue on their own terms, and only after US troops withdraw.
Israel, US officials concerned Iraqi militias may demonstrate strength through attacks
Israeli defense officials and the United States are concerned that once the ultimatum expires, the militias could seek to demonstrate their strength by attacking US bases in the Middle East and the Israeli home front, with encouragement from the Iranian regime.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is seeking to preserve its strategic alliance with the militias, as well as with the Houthis and Hezbollah. These groups give Tehran a way to maneuver amid intense US pressure over the Strait of Hormuz and on the Iranian economy.
