Todd Bishop / GeekWire (Andy Jassy at AWS re:Invent, December 2024; archive; crop).
Amazon could spend $395 billion on capital investment in 2027 and $476 billion in 2028, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth forecast in a note reported Monday, November 2, by Yahoo Finance, putting a new Wall Street estimate on the cost of the company’s artificial-intelligence expansion.
Those figures are JPMorgan’s forecasts, not spending guidance issued by Amazon. In its October 29 earnings release, Amazon maintained its expectation for approximately $220 billion in cash capital expenditures in 2026. The release did not provide the $395 billion or $476 billion figures.
“We do not expect capex growth to decelerate or slow next year,” Anmuth wrote, according to Yahoo Finance’s report. He projected $395 billion in 2027, followed by $476 billion in 2028. The latter figure approaches half a trillion dollars in a single year, but remains an analyst estimate rather than an approved company budget.
Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy said last week that the company expected to spend “meaningfully more” on capital investment in 2027 without assigning a dollar amount, Yahoo Finance reported. Anmuth’s note attempts to quantify that outlook as Amazon adds the computing infrastructure behind its cloud and AI services.
Anmuth argued that management’s visibility into demand gives it confidence to invest more aggressively in AI computing infrastructure. That is the bank’s assessment of the investment case, not evidence that the projected spending or its expected returns are guaranteed.
The cash cost behind the AI buildout
Amazon’s own results show the cash demands already involved. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months ended September 30 was an outflow of $42.4 billion, compared with an inflow of $14.8 billion a year earlier. The company attributed the decline primarily to a $94.8 billion year-over-year increase in purchases of property and equipment, net of sales proceeds and incentives, mainly reflecting AI investment.
That cash-flow measure covers a full trailing year, not the third quarter alone. Amazon also reported $168.3 billion in operating cash flow over the same twelve-month period, up 29%. The gap shows why operating cash generation and free cash flow tell different stories when a company is building expensive infrastructure.
The demand side is growing as well. Amazon Web Services reported third-quarter sales of $46.0 billion, up 39% from a year earlier, and operating income of $17.8 billion. In the earnings release, Jassy projected AWS revenue growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. That company outlook is separate from JPMorgan’s spending forecasts.
For investors, the distinction is the central one: Amazon has confirmed a $220 billion cash-capex expectation for this year, while JPMorgan is modeling a much larger investment cycle over the next two years. Whether cloud growth turns those investments into lasting free cash flow remains a question to track, rather than a result established by the forecast.
JBizNews Desk | New York
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