Archive photo, January 2023: Nizzan Cohen / CC BY 4.0, cropped
Likud has gained one projected seat and Shas has lost one as Israel’s partial election count has advanced since Thursday morning. A JBizNews calculation using the Central Elections Committee’s 1:32 p.m. Israel-time snapshot put Likud at 26 seats and Shas at seven. The latest 6:04 p.m. snapshot puts Likud at 27 and Shas at six.
The change was already present in the committee’s 3:05 p.m. snapshot and was reflected in JBizNews’ 11:08 a.m. EDT count report. There has been no further change in any list’s projected seat total since that report. These are JBizNews calculations from partial CEC vote totals, not official or final seat allocations.
Correction: The earlier version of this article compared projected seats with the 2022 election. This update instead shows movement within the ongoing count, comparing the CEC’s 1:32 p.m. and 6:04 p.m. Israel-time snapshots on October 29.
Between those two snapshots, Likud moves from 26 to 27 (+1) and Shas from seven to six (-1). Every other qualifying list is unchanged: Yashar! with Eisenkot 21; Beyachad 12; the Joint List 11; the Democrats and Ra’am eight each; Yisrael Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism seven each; and Religious Zionism-Zehut six. All other lists remain projected at zero.
The earlier 1:32 p.m. Israel-time snapshot, equivalent to 7:32 a.m. EDT, contained 5,474,083 ballots, including 5,449,594 valid votes, from 12,413 polling stations. The latest 6:04 p.m. snapshot, equivalent to 12:04 p.m. EDT, contains 5,678,811 ballots, including 5,653,178 valid votes, from 12,844 stations. That is an increase of 204,728 ballots, 203,584 valid votes and 431 stations across the comparison period.
Projected Knesset seats
CEC snapshot: October 29, 2026, 6:04 p.m. Israel time (12:04 p.m. EDT).
JBizNews partial-count projection, not an official seat allocation. If these votes were final, the 120 seats would divide as below under Bader-Ofer and the CEC-filed surplus agreements. The projection will change as counting continues.
Minimum to qualify: 3.25% of valid votes, or 183,729 votes at this snapshot. That is roughly four seats’ worth of votes, not a fixed four-seat entitlement.
| List | Votes | % | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 1,159,791 | 20.52% | 27 |
| Yashar! with Eisenkot | 907,566 | 16.05% | 21 |
| Beyachad (Naftali Bennett) | 527,064 | 9.32% | 12 |
| Joint List | 498,763 | 8.82% | 11 |
| The Democrats | 364,053 | 6.44% | 8 |
| Ra'am – United Arab List | 335,391 | 5.93% | 8 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 335,185 | 5.93% | 7 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 323,800 | 5.73% | 7 |
| United Torah Judaism | 311,473 | 5.51% | 7 |
| Shas | 297,889 | 5.27% | 6 |
| Religious Zionism – Zehut | 286,934 | 5.08% | 6 |
| 27 other lists | 305,269 | 5.40% | 0 |
| Total | 5,653,178 | 100% | 120 |
Highest list below the threshold: Reservists-Economic Party, 2.72%.
Sources: CEC count; filed surplus agreements; Knesset allocation method.
The calculation does not establish a final result or governing coalition. The CEC says the results may change until final results are published by November 4.
JBizNews Desk | Jerusalem
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