Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) reports fiscal Q3 earnings after the bell today.
The company has routinely beaten earnings estimates, which explains the 90% chance Polymarket gives it of beating the $4.05 GAAP EPS consensus.
The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which specific words Satya Nadella and his team will say on the 5:30 p.m. ET call.
What Kalshi Predicts
“Teams” is at 98%. “Dynamics” 97%. “Gaming” 97%. “LinkedIn” 97%.
Four near-locks, recurring revenue lines that get called out every quarter.
“OpenAI” is at 95%. Microsoft and OpenAI renegotiated their partnership Monday, with Microsoft’s IP license becoming nonexclusive through 2032 and OpenAI gaining the ability to serve products on other clouds.
For investors, the question is whether Nadella frames the reset as flexibility, risk, or continued Azure strength.
“Fairwater” at at 90%. Fairwater is Microsoft’s giga-scale AI datacenter program, connected by dedicated fiber …
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