Large banks posted double-digit mortgage volume growth in the second quarter of 2026 as a group, far outpacing industry forecasts and signaling that depositaries may be taking back some share from nonbank originators, according to Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analysts.
The banks in KBW’s sample — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Truist, PNC, Fifth Third, U.S. Bank and Wells Fargo — reported a combined $56.1 billion in second-quarter 2026 mortgage volume, up from $46.4 billion in the first quarter.
“Net/net, both bank earnings and securitization data suggests that banks took some share in 2Q,” the analysts wrote in a Monday report. “We think it’s too early to tell if this reflects any change in how banks are viewing mortgage exposure as a result of proposed changes to bank capital rules for mortgage loans and mortgages servicing.”
The mortgage volume at the group rose 20.8% quarter over quarter and 20.1% year over year in Q2. That compares with a 3% Q2 origination gain projected by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and a 9% increase forecast by Fannie Mae.
Wells Fargo posted the largest quarterly percentage increase at 42.9%, while Truist reported 32.8% growth and Fifth Third, 31.6%. U.S. Bank was the only bank in the group with negative sequential growth, down 7.6% quarter over quarter.
Securitization data
Agency securitization volumes also point to stronger activity among banks and mixed results for nonbanks. Total agency issuance — combining Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae — climbed 11% quarter over quarter in Q2, KBW said.
Ginnie Mae issuance rose 20% from the first quarter to $159 billion, while GSE issuance increased 6% to $214 billion. JPMorgan, the largest bank securitizer in the data set, reported a 29% quarter-over-quarter gain in production.
Among large nonbanks, growth was more uneven. Rocket Companies’s combined Ginnie and GSE issuance increased 15% quarter over quarter, and Rithm’s grew 17%, outpacing the overall market. By contrast, United Wholesale Mortgage’s total agency issuance slipped 2% and PennyMac’s fell 3%.
“One caveat with the securitization data is that given the lag between closing and securitization, it won’t tie with mortgage volumes; however, we think it is likely to be directionally useful,” the analysts said.
Capital rules
The report links the stronger bank performance to looming changes in bank capital treatment for mortgage loans and mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), though the analysts say it is too early to call a structural shift.
The proposed regulatory changes, expected to take effect this year, would remove the cap on MSRs as a percentage of common equity (currently 10% for Category I and II banks and 25% for all banks) and reduce risk weights on low loan-to-value, first-lien residential mortgages to as low as 20%, down from the current 50% applied to all first-lien residential loans.
Regulators also requested comment on lowering the 250% risk weight applied to MSRs, potentially to 100%, but that change was not formally proposed. The comment period closed June 18, and KBW said any MSR risk-weight cut could come later and possibly on a different timeline than the broader capital package.
“Given these changes, it is possible that banks are starting to modestly increase their mortgage exposure,” the KBW analysts wrote, while adding that banks are still unlikely to “meaningfully increase their role” in the mortgage market over the longer term.
Top banks could become more active in mortgages if upcoming changes to capital rules provide more flexibility, several industry executives told HousingWire. But they added that any shift in strategy is expected to take time.
This article was written by Flávia Furlan Nunes and generated with the assistance of HousingWire Automation, then reviewed by a HousingWire editor before publication.
