Archive photo: Mike Lawler, May 2021. New York State Young Republicans / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 2.0; cropped.
Two House races in Rockland County and South Florida are rated toss-ups heading into Tuesday's election, while a third contest encompassing Boca Raton is competitive but gives Democrats an advantage, according to the Cook Political Report's latest published ratings.
The November 3 contests offer a close-up look at congressional elections in regions with substantial Jewish communities. They also require care: Florida's redrawn districts mean familiar district numbers and older demographic estimates cannot simply be carried into this election.
Cook's October 23 House ratings put New York's 17th District and Florida's 22nd District in its toss-up category. Florida's 25th District, where Democrat Jared Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer, is rated Lean Democratic. Those are assessments of competitiveness, not poll results or predictions of a particular winning margin.
Rockland: Mike Lawler faces Cait Conley
In New York's 17th District, Republican Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley are the two candidates on the state Board of Elections' certified general-election ballot. Conley also appears on the Working Families line; Lawler also appears on the Conservative line.
The district includes all of Rockland and Putnam counties and parts of Dutchess and Westchester counties, according to the state certification. Cook lists Lawler's seat as a toss-up, placing it among the races in which neither party has a clear advantage in the rating service's assessment.
Rockland's Jewish population makes this contest especially relevant to Jewish readers. The Jewish Federation & Foundation of Rockland County describes the county's Jewish population share as more than 31 percent. That is a county-level community figure, not a measurement of the district's registered voters, likely voters or partisan preferences.
The distinction matters. A large Jewish community gives an election a significant Jewish constituency; it does not establish how that constituency will vote or whether it will decide the result.
Boca Raton: Jared Moskowitz faces Scott Singer
The Boca Raton-area contest this year is in Florida's 25th District. The state's official general-election candidate list identifies Moskowitz as the Democratic candidate and Singer as the Republican candidate. The ballot also includes Libertarian Peter Jassenoff and a write-in option; the state identifies the qualified write-in candidate as Michaelangelo Hamilton.
Cook's district page identifies the seat with Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach. Its October 23 ratings table places the race in the Lean Democratic column, rather than the toss-up column. The distinction makes it inaccurate to describe all three contests as equally close.
The South Palm Beach County Jewish community's scale is reflected in the federation's regional security work. A September announcement from the Jewish Federation of South Palm Beach County says its community security program serves more than 150,000 residents and gives more than 70 local institutions access to security resources, training and law-enforcement coordination. Those are figures for the program's service area, not the congressional district's Jewish electorate.
Florida's 22nd: Casey Askar faces Pia Dandiya
Florida's 22nd District offers another South Florida race in Cook's toss-up column. Republican Casey Askar and Democrat Pia Dandiya are confirmed on the state candidate list and official general-election materials from Broward and Palm Beach counties.
Cook describes the seat as open. It should not be confused with a simple continuation of the old district based on its number: Florida's congressional lines have changed, and Cook's current ratings list Lois Frankel in the new 23rd District.
The regional Jewish presence is substantial. The Jewish Federation of Broward County describes Broward as home to nearly 180,000 Jewish residents. As with Rockland and South Palm Beach County, that regional figure should not be presented as a count of Jewish voters within this particular district.
What the ratings do and do not show
For readers following election night, the clearest distinction is between the two toss-ups and the Boca Raton-area seat rated Lean Democratic. Cook defines toss-ups as its most competitive races, where either party has a good chance of winning; lean seats remain competitive but give one party an advantage.
None of those labels supplies a vote count, a polling lead or evidence of a unified Jewish voting bloc. The official ballots establish who is running. The ratings establish one independent analyst's assessment of competitiveness. The election results will establish who wins.
JBizNews Desk | U.S. Elections
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