It would be more fun to write a feel-good column on the promise of a much better year. But reality points the other way. A convergence of trends and events – some global, some local – threatens to turn 5787 into a “perfect storm”: several forces coming together, each likely to confront us with challenges even greater than those we have already endured.
At home: political instability, intensifying internal conflict, accelerating net emigration, and continuing security threats. Abroad: artificial intelligence; a climate spinning out of control; instability in the international system and intensifying great-power competition; and, as a result of all these, the continued rise of antisemitism, which, true to form, blames Jews for every ill.
I hope I turn out to be wrong. But I may not.
The problems facing Israel in the new year
Let’s start in Israel. Elections will be held shortly after the holidays. Months of polling, including surveys conducted in recent days, point to a political deadlock. Like two wrestlers in the ring, the political “blocs” have each other by the throat, with neither able to prevail. If that holds, we can expect a replay of the election years of 2020–2023 and prolonged instability. This time, however, the social reality is more extreme – most Israelis identify the social rift as the greatest risk facing Israel –despite the immense challenges of the security environment. As conditions deteriorate, more Israelis are leaving the country, including many who are part of the backbone of the economy.
The security and foreign-policy fronts are also unstable – and in some respects, worsening. Israel has failed to achieve a decisive victory on any front. The IDF is stretched to the limit in Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank, while another “round” with Iran looms as a very real possibility. The security burden on military personnel and the Israeli economy is enormous – almost unprecedented.
The international outlook is no brighter. On the eve of the new year, Britain – once a close Israeli ally – imposed unprecedented sanctions on Israel. Eleven other European countries have followed suit, including major EU members. Israel’s standing in the United States is deteriorating as well. On both sides of the political divide, rhetoric toward Israel and Jews is becoming more extreme. Israel has already become a major issue in the midterm elections – not to its advantage – and as the 2028 presidential race heats up, the situation is likely to worsen. Public support for Israel is at a historic low. Then there is antisemitism. In Europe, this is old news – and the situation is bad. But over the past year, antisemitism in the United States, together with denial of Israel’s right to exist, has also surged and gained legitimacy, with such views now openly voiced by influencers and politicians. Antisemitism and rejection of Israel have become intertwined, threatening Jewish life in the Diaspora and becoming a national-security challenge for Israel itself.
Added to these are global challenges that will significantly affect Israel. The first is artificial intelligence. Many experts now expect AI to advance faster than previously thought – and to reshape our lives sooner than expected. There will be benefits, but the labor market and global economy also face the real prospect of a severe crisis – one that could last until economies and governments adapt to this new environment. Israel, whose economy is driven by its technology sector, is especially exposed.
Over all of this hangs the climate crisis. On its own, it might not drastically alter the international system. Combined with other pressures, however, it could become a major factor. Together, these trends intensify instability in the international system and sharpen great-power competition – both with consequences for Israel.
Some of these trends are beyond our control, and Israel has little influence over them. That does not exempt Israel from confronting them and preparing for their effects. Others – those directly involving Israel – are much more within our power to shape. Some result from government policy; others from external forces. But in both cases, we can do more to address them. The challenges awaiting us in 5787 could coalesce into a perfect storm. But this outcome is not inevitable; the choices we make can soften the blow. Despite it all – happy new year!
Dr. Shuki Friedman is director-general of JPPI – the Jewish People Policy Institute – and a senior lecturer in law at the Peres Academic Center.
