President Donald Trump called the overnight strikes on Iran “just a love tap,” and Polymarket traders are barely pricing in any threat to the April ceasefire.
The U.S. struck targets in Iran after Tehran fired missiles, drones and small boats at three U.S. destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
“The ceasefire is going. It’s in effect,” Trump told ABC News’ Rachel Scott by phone.
The Airspace Market Did Not Move
The closest proxy to a market on the ceasefire breaking is Polymarket’s “Iran closes its airspace by…?” contract, which has logged over $10 million in volume and barely twitched on the strikes.
The May 8 outcome sits at just 2%, with May 31 at 31%.
Iran typically closes its airspace defensively when a major U.S. or Israeli attack is incoming, so a flat market means traders are not pricing in further escalation from Washington.
The bigger “US x Iran …
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