If the US President Donald Trump ultimately sells F-35 aircraft to Turkey, Israeli defense officials believe that Ankara’s top minds could work around American limits placed on the aircraft, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
When the UAE and the Saudis dropped their interest in purchasing the dominant F-35 fifth-generation aircraft from Washington, part of this was because the US was going to impose limits on the aircraft it would sell them to ensure they were not misused.
Whereas the UAE and the Saudis may have dropped their pursuit of these aircraft due to those technical limits, the Post understands that Israeli defense officials worry that Turkey’s military technology capacities and experience with aircraft could allow it to overcome those limits.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has phrased Israeli objections to Turkey acquiring the aircraft in general terms of upsetting the balance of power in the region.
But Israeli defense officials and other experts are more specific.
F-35 sale could limit Israel’s ability to pre-emptively strike regional dangers
While to date, Turkey has not taken direct military action against Israel, and such a scenario is still unlikely, the widely publicized fact is that no country has successfully detected the F-35 aircraft. If Ankara did decide to attack Israel, it could theoretically do so, including against strategic political or military targets, with no warning and no clear Israeli defense (and the same for any other country, for that matter, according to long-standing reports).
In another nightmare scenario, Turkey could provide Syria, or even Iran, with the capacity to track F-35s, ending or severely limiting Israel’s ability to launch pre-emptive strikes against rising dangers, such as ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons.
Iran might be a stretch, as Ankara and Tehran can also be rivals, but it is not impossible if Turkey views Israel as too ascendant in air supremacy in the region, and sharing with Syria would seem to be an obvious move, given that Turkey helped put the new Syrian ruler since late 2024, Ahmad al-Sharaa, in power.
What is stopping Trump from selling the F-35s to Turkey, if anything?
Israeli, Greek, and Cypriot objections, while not irrelevant, certainly would not be enough to stop it on their own.
But there is a real block.
US legislation does not allow the government to sell the F-35s to a country that operates Russian air defense platforms, such as the S-400 system, which Turkey possesses, in order to avoid them learning how to beat the F-35 up close.
In other words, if Turkey could fly its own F-35s while its own Russian S-400 system learned to track them, Ankara could pass this information not only regionally in a way that would harm Israel, but also to Russia, which could harm America’s ability to project power.
Until now, the assumption has been that the S-400 can shoot down American F-15s and F-16s, but not the F-35. All of this could change if Turkey had both systems.
Israeli defense officials worry that Turkey can circumvent US legislation by placing the S-400 systems in storage and arguing that they are not operational.
This may not be enough to convince the US Congress in an absolute sense, but it could help Trump squeak the deal through using a loophole and the veil of not violating the law on the books.
Turkey could send the Russian S-400 systems to Syria
A key question Israeli defense officials are now asking is how hard the American Congress can fight Trump on such a national security issue, which is mostly within the US president’s purview given his dominance of foreign affairs? This is especially true regarding legislation which he himself pushed through under different circumstances and in a different time in his first term, but about which he has now soured.
In addition, Turkey could also send the S-400 anti-aircraft defense systems to Syria.
This could be the worst of both worlds for Israel, because technically Turkey would not be violating US law, but Syria could track the F-35s, which would harm Israeli freedom of action in Syria, and Damascus could also share the information with Turkey.
Yet another scenario is that Russia could take the S-400 systems back entirely, which would temporarily alleviate the issue, but the systems could always be sent back later, and Turkey could not be forced to return the aircraft necessarily.
This is part of what concerns Israeli defense officials in the sense that once the F-35 is given over to Turkey, eventually the unpredictable future could take the issue in currently unforeseen negative directions.
These are the most extreme scenarios, though there are less extreme approaches to the issue.
Some Israeli defense officials are beginning to analyze the issue in a less nightmare-focused way, asking the opening question: Why is Turkey interesting, and what about it could eventually constitute a threat?
They note that there is always a general conflict over the balance of power in the Middle East between Arabs and non-Arabs.
Since October 7, Israel has brought the power of the Shiite axis lower, such that they ask: Who will enter the former position of the Shiites?
Next, they say there are three candidate countries for filling that vacuum: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey – with these countries having the capabilities and the motivation.
These Israeli defense officials, without jumping to conclusions, recommend that the Americans need to look at what Turkey will look like in a broader strategic sense long-term, and not just the current financial value of the military deals.
It is complicated for the US to think this way, they acknowledge, because Turkey is historically a member of NATO, such that the US on a bipartisan basis does not view Turkey as a threat.
But these officials also stress that it would not take too much for Turkey to start posing a threat to Israel in Syria, and also potentially in Gaza.
This would mean that giving them the F-35 could influence a wide array of calculations anytime Israel and Turkey might have a confrontation over a seemingly smaller issue in Syria or Gaza.
Lastly, it has been widely reported that, to date, the US has never let Israel into the F-22 fighter program and has excluded Jerusalem from the latest sixth-generation F-47 fighter program, which may be tested in 2028 and become fully operational in 2030.
If the US were to allow Israel to join the F-47 fighter program, this could take some significant stress out of any F-35 deal with Turkey.
However, to date, the Post understands that Israeli sources remain less than optimistic about this happening, even as discussion of selling the F-35 to Turkey has reached a critical point.
