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New U.S. apartment openings are projected to fall 27% this year to 442,395 units, putting deliveries below their roughly 466,000-unit ten-year average for the first time in four years.
The estimate comes from RentCafe’s November 2 analysis of Yardi Matrix data. It compares this year’s expected openings with 605,768 apartments completed in 2025, showing the retreat from the unusually large post-pandemic building wave.
The figures measure apartments expected to be completed and opened, not new construction starts. The 2026 total remains a forecast, with completion dates subject to change.
Northeast moves against the national decline
The Northeast is the only region expected to add more new apartments than last year, with deliveries projected to rise 20% to 79,426. Projects begun during the earlier demand surge are now reaching completion.
The New York metro leads the national rankings with 38,825 projected openings, up 11.4% from 2025. Brooklyn accounts for 13,011 apartments, while Queens and Manhattan are expected to add 4,072 and 3,944, respectively. Jersey City is projected to add 4,637.
The New York comparison has an important boundary: the report excludes the Bronx and Staten Island from its metro data set. The figures should not be treated as a complete count of all five New York City boroughs.
Southern markets cool after the building surge
The South still accounts for the largest share of expected openings: 208,085 units, or 47% of the national total. Texas and Florida lead the state rankings with 56,394 and 50,392 apartments, respectively.
But some major Southern markets are slowing sharply. Dallas is projected to deliver 20,392 apartments, down 45.1%, while Austin’s 12,334 projected openings represent a 60.4% decline. Those are metro-area figures, not city-only totals.
The West is expected to add 101,400 apartments, while the Midwest accounts for 53,484. The regional differences mean a national slowdown does not describe every renter’s local choices.
What the numbers cover
RentCafe’s primary report covers 369 U.S. metropolitan areas and buildings containing at least 50 units. It is not a count of every rental home or every small apartment building nationwide.
The projections include confirmed and likely completions based on Yardi’s model and certificates of occupancy. Historical figures for 2017 through 2025 are final actual completions, replacing earlier estimates, which can make past-year totals differ from older editions of the report.
For renters, fewer buildings opening could narrow the supply of newly built homes in some markets. That does not establish that rents will rise everywhere: places that recently added large numbers of apartments may still have units to fill.
JBizNews Desk | New York
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