The United Arab Emirates, thanks to years of anticipatory planning, is not in a position where it will need to bow to the Islamic Republic’s demands to administer and charge fees for the crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, former Emirati diplomat Obaid al-Zaabi told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.
Al-Zaabi, who currently works in bolstering the UAE’s food security in the field of agri-tech innovation, spoke to the Post shortly after the Islamic Republic took a harsher stance on Hormuz, abandoning earlier propositions to see the vital waterway split between Iranian and Omani control.
Kazem Gharibabadi, deputy foreign minister of the Islamic Republic, said on Tuesday that the entirety of the inbound shipping lane and the majority of the outbound shipping lane should be entirely under Iranian control.
Al-Zaabi made it clear that the Emirates had no intention of accepting Oman’s proposal to allow Iran control over 50% of the waterway, noting that the three islands in Hormuz – Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb – that were taken under Iranian occupation since 1971 were reason enough to oppose the plan.
“The three islands in Hormuz are our islands, and we claim them, and they killed Emirati people when they took them in 1971, so we are not okay with their policy. We do not accept Oman’s policy,” he asserted.
Gulf States can still concede to Iran’s demands
Though the UAE will refuse to pay a toll, al-Zaabi acknowledged that there is a chance other Gulf states will concede to Iran, hoping to avoid conflict and lacking any real leverage to challenge Tehran. As a global re-export powerhouse, the UAE’s ability to ship items to and from Iran makes the country too valuable to restrict, he suggested.
“The truth is, they need us. They don’t have a big port that can handle the kind of port work that Dubai does. They do not have legal trading ability with other countries, so they are heavily reliant on the UAE’s infrastructure for themselves,” he continued.
Additionally, al-Zaabi highlighted that the UAE’s diversified economy is more “resilient” than many other Gulf nations, especially given the country has multiple ports, energy sources, and pipelines, allowing Abu Dhabi to withstand more Iranian pressure than other regional players like Qatar, which is largely dependent on natural gas reserves and massive Liquefied Natural Gas.
Those extra securities and technological investments have also meant that the UAE can avoid the extreme inflation being experienced by other regional actors, including Iran, he highlighted. Though by no means sustainable forever, this has made the Emiratis stronger in what he described as “a mutually hurting stalemate.”
Countries like Saudi Arabia, which al-Zaabi said “aggressively pursued de-escalation,” are also more likely to find themselves the target of Iranian drones and missiles and the attacks of Iran’s axis, because Tehran’s strategy is to create that sense of volatility that will lead Gulf states to pressure the United States to concede for the sake of quiet.
“The UAE did not seek de-escalation. Instead, it adopted a tit-for-tat approach. If they hit us, we hit them back. When they escalated, we were willing to match that escalation. If they attack our infrastructure, we will attack theirs,” he commented.
“Since Iran chose to target us, the UAE has been an active participant in the conflict. We have withheld their funds, taken part in the blockade, and remain actively engaged in fighting them. … As far as I understood, they have stopped attacking us because they know any attack against us will be reciprocated with massive force.”
UAE reportedly struck Iran, relations are now strained
The Wall Street Journal reported in May that the UAE participated in dozens of strikes on Iran, which was said to have strained relations between Gulf countries.
Until the now-defunct MoU agreement was signed in April, Tehran fired some 550 ballistic and cruise missiles and more than 2,200 drones at the UAE, according to Emirati figures in May. Though a heavy target at the beginning of the war, it seems the UAE has been attacked with the same level of fire as before since July 13, when two oil tankers were struck off the eastern coast near Khor Fakkan.
The mentality of seeking de-escalation has also allowed the issue of Iran’s proxy network to grow unchecked and unchallenged, al-Zaabi continued.
“The Saudi goal of being neutral and de-escalating has not helped them,” he said, referencing the recent attacks from Iran-backed Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis.
US Central Command confirmed Riyadh has now joined the US in attacking the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces, striking “multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq in a strong response to over 30 IRGC-directed aerial drone attacks in the last 72 hours.”
It is yet unclear how Riyadh will respond to the Houthis’ blockade, though al-Zaabi made no secret of his view that such an outcome could have been avoided had Saudi Arabia not pressured Abu Dhabi to withdraw from Yemen last year.
“When it came to the threat posed by the proxies, the UAE wanted to continue the war against the Houthis. We did not feel comfortable having an Iranian proxy in our backyard while facing a belligerent Iran,” he said.
“The Saudis wanted to end it. We had built up a substantial force in Yemen to counter the Houthis, but the Saudis asked us to dismantle that force. In my opinion, ignoring the proxies has been a grave policy error. It has led to a situation where groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are actively working against you in a wartime scenario,” he continued.
The UAE defense ministry announced in December that it had voluntarily ended the mission of its counterterrorism units in Yemen, after Saudi Arabia gave the UAE 24 hours’ notice to vacate the only Emirati forces still there after it withdrew in 2019.
“I don’t know what the solution is, because if a group of ragtag terrorists can hold the global economy under threat, it’s a dangerous situation. I think there are more options on the table. … I think the problem is that if everyone escalates, things will get very bad, very quickly,” al-Zaabi continued.
“Now Russia also seems to be getting pulled into the war, with Ukraine attacking Iranian ships. There is a very real risk. I think everyone is more concerned about uncontrolled escalation right now than winning, which, in and of itself, is very worrisome,” he concluded.
