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Home prices are cooling across the country. New Jersey buyers should not mistake that for a statewide sale.
U.S. single-family home prices rose 1.7% from a year earlier in September but fell 0.3% from August, according to Cotality’s November home-price report, released Tuesday. New Jersey prices were still up 5.1% over the year, roughly three times the national pace.
That split is the story for anyone deciding whether to buy, sell or wait. A softer national market can give some buyers more room to negotiate, while a tight local market can keep a nearby home out of reach.
A monthly drop, not a nationwide price collapse
Cotality said September’s 0.3% decline was the largest monthly decrease since 2022. It was also the third consecutive September without price growth. The report said prices normally edge up about 0.2% in that month.
Even so, the national index remained above its year-earlier level. Slower price growth means homes are appreciating less quickly; it does not mean prices have fallen everywhere or that every owner has lost equity.
The geography matters. Every Northeast and Midwest state recorded annual gains, according to Cotality, while several Southern and Western states posted declines. Compared with August, appreciation strengthened in about half of metropolitan areas and weakened in the other half.
New Jersey stays among the strongest states
Illinois led annual gains at 6.9%, followed by Rhode Island at 6.4% and Connecticut at 6.0%. New Jersey’s 5.1% increase placed it ahead of Ohio’s 4.9%.
Cotality linked strength in the Great Lakes and New England to chronic inventory shortages. It said New Jersey, Connecticut and Rhode Island had gained about 30% to 31% since June 2022. That is a very different backdrop from markets where the pandemic-era boom has largely stalled.
Washington prices fell 1.0% over the year, Wyoming declined 0.7%, Texas fell 0.4% and Hawaii slipped 0.1%. Those statewide figures still do not describe every neighborhood, property type or asking price.
The monthly payment is still the obstacle
For a buyer, a lower asking price is only one piece of the bill. Financing, insurance and property taxes can offset a price concession. Cotality said high mortgage rates had curbed summer demand and warned that everyday living costs and slow wage growth were also making households reluctant to move.
For sellers, the report is a reason to look closely at competing local listings rather than assume that national cooling has reached their block. For buyers in New Jersey, the reverse is just as important: strong statewide appreciation does not mean every listing deserves its asking price.
Cotality forecasts national annual home-price growth slowing to 0.9% by September 2027. That is a forecast, not a promised discount or a prediction for any individual home.
The near-term picture is a divided market: more bargaining power in some places, stubborn scarcity in others, and affordability still determined by the full monthly cost.
JBizNews Desk | New York
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