The clock has been ticking for two months since the June “ceasefire” between the US and Iran, and still the Islamic Republic is rearming.
That should dominate Israel’s thinking about every day that passes without an agreement capable of restraining the Iranian regime.
The Jerusalem Post’s Yonah Jeremy Bob reported last week that Israeli defense officials have been shocked by the speed with which Iran is recovering from the damage inflicted during the war.
The concern stretches across several parts of its military infrastructure, including the ballistic missile program, that remains an immediate strategic threat to Israel.
The figures are sobering to look at, given the ease with which the US and Israel bombarded the Iranians’ military sites for two months from February through April.
Israel and the United States struck more than 2,600 missile and military-industrial targets during the roughly 40-day war, carrying out some 30,000 attacks, and it left Israeli officials believing the scale of the destruction had crippled Iran’s ability to restore its military industries at anything like their previous pace.
Iran rebuilds its missile capabilities faster than Israel expected
Iran has already confounded such assessments before. After Israeli strikes in October 2024, officials believed missile production had been set back by a year or more.
By early 2025, production had recovered. Following far greater attacks in June 2025, Israel again believed the production network had been crippled for years. And yet, as it always seems to, Iran rebuilt again.
Now the Post has confirmed that Iran is producing new weapons at a much faster pace than Israeli planners anticipated. If it can return to manufacturing 100 to 300 ballistic missiles a month, it could restore its arsenal to June 2025 levels by early or mid-2027.
That is the clock Israel must watch.
Diplomatic clock runs down as Iran maintains pressure in Hormuz
Friday brought another reminder of how badly the diplomatic clock is running. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to slow almost to a standstill after two more ships were attacked.
The United Arab Emirates blames Iran for attacks on two vessels belonging to the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, while shipping through the strait remains a fraction of its prewar level.
Tehran continues to use Hormuz as leverage, demanding sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before the waterway fully reopens.
The United States says it can maintain its naval blockade indefinitely and promises still more economic pressure.
Yet almost two months after the June ceasefire agreement created an opening for diplomacy, a wider deal is nowhere in sight. There has yet to be any breakthrough over Hormuz, nor is there a durable settlement on Iran’s nuclear program.
The ballistic missile threat remains unresolved, and the pressure campaign has yet to return Tehran to the negotiating table on terms that can give Israel confidence the danger is actually receding. The longer this goes on, the more it looks like the
Americans are operating without a real, strategic plan.
Meanwhile, the work inside Iran continues.
Every month without an agreement gives Iran more time to rebuild
Every month gives Iranian engineers, commanders, and procurement networks more time to reopen facilities, replace machinery, uncover underground missile sites, disperse production, and replenish stocks.
The longer negotiations drag on without enforceable restrictions, the more the military achievement bought at enormous cost begins to erode.
Israel cannot afford to wake up next year and discover that a threat believed to have been pushed back by years was delayed by only a matter of months.
Diplomacy remains the preferable route if it produces an agreement that genuinely constrains Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. Israel has every reason to support such an outcome.
Endless negotiations, however, carry their own strategic price when the country on the other side of the table is rebuilding while it talks.
But as the Post has stated before, Israel is directly in the firing line. The United States is not. If we need to take matters into our own hands, then that should be our prerogative, whatever our working relationship with the US.
Two months have already been spent trying to turn a ceasefire into something more permanent. Iran has spent those same two months recovering.
Washington and its allies must now put a limit on how long this process can continue without results. Israel cannot afford to give Iran any more time to rearm.
