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Business analysis | JBizNews Desk
A holiday sale earns its place in a retailer’s plan when the business knows what it costs to keep that sale. This season, managers should put returns, fulfillment and resale recovery next to revenue on the same scorecard.
The National Retail Federation forecasts $1.013 trillion in November and December retail sales, up 4.2% from 2025. Its forecast covers core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. NRF measures those sales in nominal dollars.
That is a substantial market for merchants preparing for the year’s busiest shopping weeks. Our view is that the best operating target is the margin left after discounts, delivery, returns and the cost of getting merchandise ready for another customer.
Plan January alongside December
NRF’s current holiday guide says the vast majority of holiday returns occur in January. A retailer that budgets staff and cash only through the end of December leaves an important part of the season outside its operating plan.
The 2025 NRF and Happy Returns study provides a useful historical benchmark: surveyed retailers expected 17% of holiday sales to be returned. The study surveyed 358 ecommerce professionals at large U.S. merchants and 2,006 consumers who had returned an online purchase in the previous year.
Management should build its own plan around product-level return histories, return shipping charges, handling time and the value recovered when an item goes back on sale. A winter coat returned while cold-weather demand remains strong presents a different operating decision from a seasonal item returned after its selling window.
Make the offer and the return policy work together
Price competition is already shaping this year’s season. In the October 2026 NRF consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, 56% of holiday shoppers cited sales and discounts when deciding where to shop. Free shipping or shipping promotions mattered to 37%.
A promotion therefore deserves a full cost review before it goes live. Managers should ask what happens to the margin when the discount, outbound delivery and a possible return are considered together. The same exercise can help them choose which products belong in a broad promotion and which need a more selective offer.
Return policies are part of that customer decision. In the 2025 returns study, 82% of consumers said free returns were a major purchase consideration, and 71% said a poor returns experience made them less likely to shop with a retailer again.
For a merchant, the practical answer is a policy customers can understand before checkout, paired with a process staff can carry out consistently. Clear deadlines, visible return options and accurate product descriptions give both sides a better chance of avoiding an expensive disagreement after delivery.
Track what comes back and what sells again
A useful weekly review follows each promotion through its full cycle: orders placed, discounts given, items returned, processing time and resale value. Repeated returns of one product should prompt a look at sizing, descriptions, packaging and quality before another advertising push.
Small retailers can start with a simple product-level record and a regular review of the most expensive exceptions. Larger businesses can give buying, fulfillment and customer-service teams a shared view of the same costs.
The strongest holiday result will be the one that leaves the business with satisfied repeat customers, usable inventory and cash after the returns have been handled. Retailers should make that the target now, while there is still time to prepare.
JBizNews Desk | Retail & Business
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