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Thirty years ago, a single light bulb would illuminate the mezcal distillery owned by Gladys Sánchez Garnica’s family in rural Oaxaca, where the agave-based spirit was made through the night. As drops dripped from a clay oven, Garnica and her siblings listened to stories told by their parents while neighbors arrived by horse to get a taste of a drink known for its smoky flavor.

“We were taught when to harvest agave, how to care for the soil, and how much we could ask of the forest,” said Garnica, 33, speaking from a women-owned distillery in San Pedro Totolapam, a town of just over 3,000 residents in Mexico’s Oaxacan Central Valleys, where much of the economy depends on mezcal.

Today, that small-scale tradition exists alongside a global boom that has transformed mezcal into a major industry dominated by international brands. As mezcal has spread to bars around the world, so has its footprint on the land. Along the road to communities like San Luis del Rio, where celebrity brands such as Dos Hombres, created by actors Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul from the hit series “Breaking Bad,” are made, agave plantations now blanket hillsides that were once forest. While the boom has brought economic benefits for many local producers, it’s also led to rising environmental costs.

Mezcal production surges as popularity takes off

Production in Mexico has gone from about 1 million liters (264,172 gallons) in 2010 to more than 11 million (2.9 million gallons) in 2024, according to COMERCAM, the country’s mezcal regulatory body. Nearly all is produced in Oaxaca, but less than 30% remains in Mexico. About 75% of exports go to the United States.

In two major mezcal-producing areas of Oaxaca, more than 34,953 hectares (86,370 acres) of tropical dry and pine oak forests have been lost in 27 years to make room for agave, an area roughly equivalent to the size of the U.S. city of Detroit, according to a study led by Rufino Sandoval-García, a professor at the Technological University of the Central Valley of Oaxaca.

The study found that agave plantations in the two areas have expanded by over 400% the past three decades, increasingly replacing forests and farmland with a species of agave known as espadin, used in most commercial mezcal.

That is accelerating soil erosion, reducing by 4 million tons per year the amount of carbon dioxide captured by forests, limiting the land’s ability to recharge groundwater and creating heat islands in heavily planted areas, according to the study.

“It will take a long time for the ecosystem to recover the resilience it once had,” said Sandoval-García.

Mezcal production has always been resource-intensive

One liter (0.26 gallons) of mezcal can require at least 10 liters (2.64 gallons) of water for fermentation and distillation, and generates waste such as bagazo, the pulpy residue left after the juice has been extracted, and vinazas, or wastewater, often dumped untreated into rivers. Large quantities of firewood are also burned to roast agave pineapples and fuel distillation, much of which comes from illegal logging, according to Sandoval-García.

For generations, the environmental impacts of the spirit remained limited by its small scale and the ability of surrounding forests and soils to recover. That balance is now fragile.

Félix Monterrosa, a third-generation producer from Santiago Matatlan who owns Oaxacan brand CUISH, said the boom of industrial mezcal displaced the milpa system he learned from his ancestors, in which corn, beans and pumpkin were grown alongside agave.

“Now everything is monoculture, and that is the real problem,” Monterrosa said. In his town, decades of dumping mezcal waste into the river have left it so polluted that residents nicknamed it the “Nilo,” short for “ni lo huelas,” or in English: “don’t even smell it.”

Monterrosa now plants wild agaves alongside corn and trees to restore biodiversity, though he said maintaining the system at scale remains a challenge.

Water is an increasing concern across Oaxaca, which experienced its worst drought in more than a decade in 2024, according to Mexico’s National Water Commission.

Armando Martínez Ruiz, a producer in Soledad Salinas who sells his mezcal to Mexican brand Amaras, installed a system to cool and reuse water during distillation.

“We never had enough water here, so I try not to waste it,” he said.

There is tension between sustainability and profitability

While major companies highlight sustainability commitments, their third-party contracts with distilleries are typically limited to purchasing mezcal in bulk. Producers say those agreements rarely cover the costs of raw materials, workers’ wages or maintenance of their distilleries.

Del Maguey, one of the world’s top-selling mezcal brands, says they are working to reduce their environmental footprint by planting trees. Over the past five years, the company reused more than 5,000 tons of bagazo and 2 million liters (528,344 gallons) of vinaza to build a raised platform at a distillery in San Luis del Rio to prevent flooding and contamination, according to its head of sustainability, Gabriel Bonfanti.

For many, the boom has been a lifeline in a region with some of the highest poverty rates in Mexico.

Luis Cruz Velasco, a producer from San Luis del Rio who works with Mexican brands like Bruxo, said the growth has created jobs for nearly every family in his town of about 300 residents. Where previous generations lived in thatched houses, mezcal income has helped his siblings to attend university.

“There are many people who criticize us and ask what we do to reforest,” Velasco said. “But we have to look for a livelihood and food.”

For Velasco, the problem is not the entry of large brands, which he says have done more than the government to support marginalized areas like his, but the lack of public incentives for farmers to safeguard environments by planting native trees or maintaining traditional farming systems.

In Oaxaca, much land is communally owned and managed through local systems of self-governance. Converting forest into agave plantations requires federal approval from Mexico’s Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources.

The permitting process is so slow and bureaucratic that some communities choose to bypass it, said Helena Iturribarria from Tierra de Agaves, a conservation project to reforest parts of Oaxaca’s valleys and promote sustainable agave production.

The Secretary of Environment said in a statement it had not received requests for forest clearing for agave cultivation in the past three years in Oaxaca. The agency also said it was investigating nine public complaints filed since 2021 over illegal land clearing for mezcal production.

Finding ways to protect land

In 2018, Garnica founded a collective of women called the “Guardians of Mezcal.” The group is promoting mezcal produced by women using sustainable practices, including using only fallen trees for firewood and planting agave alongside other crops.

With help from Tierra de Agaves, Guardians of Mezcal and local community officials from Santa Maria Zoquitlan secured projected status for 26,000 hectares of forest surrounding the town.

“Mezcal is a way of life, like a form of work that our parents taught us, so it really means a lot,” Garnica said. “If there is a funeral, a wedding, a party, mezcal is a drink you are going to share with others, and above all many families depend on it.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

The Trump administration this week stepped up its ambitious effort to replace about $1.6 trillion in lost tariff revenue that was eliminated by the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down a range of the president’s import taxes.

Recovering that lost revenue, which the White House was counting on to help offset the steep, multi-trillion dollar cost of its tax cuts, is possible but will be challenging, experts say. The administration has to use different legal provisions to impose new duties, and those provisions require longer, complex processes that U.S. companies can use to seek exemptions. It could be months or more before it is clear how much revenue the replacement tariffs will yield.

“I wouldn’t bet against this administration being able to get back on paper the same effective tariff rate they had before,” said Elena Patel, co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. But the new approach will “make it easier for people to contest the tariffs, which is going to put a big asterisk on the revenue until all that is settled.”

On Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the administration will investigate 16 economies — including the European Union — over whether their governments are subsidizing excessive factory capacity in a way that disadvantages U.S. manufacturing. The investigation will also cover China, South Korea, and Japan, Greer said.

In addition, he said there would be a second investigation of dozens of countries to see if their failure to ban goods made by forced labor amounts to an unfair trade practice that harms the United States. That investigation will also cover the EU and China, as well as Mexico, Canada, Australia, and Brazil.

Both investigations are being conducted under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, which requires the administration to consult with the targeted countries, as well as hold public hearings and allow affected U.S. industries to comment. A hearing as part of the factory capacity investigation will be held May 5, while a hearing on the forced labor investigation will occur April 28.

It’s a far cry from the emergency law that President Donald Trump relied on in his first year in office, which allowed him to immediately impose tariffs on any country, at nearly any level, simply by issuing an executive order.

Moments after the Supreme Court’s ruling, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all imports under a separate legal authority, but that duty can only last for 150 days. The president has said he would raise it to 15%, the maximum allowed, but has yet to do so. Some two dozen states have already challenged the new tariffs. The administration is aiming to complete its Section 301 investigations before the 10% duties expire.

The effort underscores the importance that the Trump White House has placed on tariffs as a revenue-raiser at a time when the federal government is facing huge annual budget deficits for decades into the future. Previous administrations, by contrast, used tariffs more sparingly to narrowly protect specific industries.

Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, noted that the first investigation covers roughly 70% of imports, while the second would cover nearly all of them.

“That breadth suggests the goal isn’t to address the issues at hand, but instead to recreate a sweeping tariff tool,” she said.

Trump sees tariffs as a way to force foreign countries to essentially help pay the cost of U.S. government services, even though all recent economic studies find that American companies and consumers are paying the duties, including ones from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and economists at Harvard University. In his state of the union address last month, Trump even touted his tariffs as a potential replacement for the income tax, which would return the United States’ tax regime to the late 19th century.

Trump also wants tariffs to help pay for the tax cuts he extended in key legislation last year. The tax cut legislation is expected, according to the most recent estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, to add $4.7 trillion to the national debt over a decade, while all Trump’s duties, including ones not struck down by the court, were projected to offset about $3 trillion — or two-thirds of that cost.

The court’s ruling Feb. 20 that he could no longer impose emergency tariffs eliminated about $1.6 trillion in expected revenue over the next decade, according to the CBO.

Some of Trump’s tariffs remain place, including previous duties on China and Canada that were imposed after earlier 301 investigations. The administration has also slapped tariffs on some specific products, including steel, lumber, and cars. Those, combined with the 10% tariff for part of this year, should yield about $668 billion over the next decade, the Tax Foundation estimates.

“It’s going to take a really big patchwork of these other investigations to make up for the (lost) tariffs,” York said.

The administration’s efforts are also unusual because they reflect an overreliance on tariffs to bring in more government revenue. Trump has also said the duties are intended to return manufacturing to the United States, and he has used them to leverage trade deals.

“What makes this really different,” said Kent Smetters, executive director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, “it is really the first time tariffs have been mainly used as a revenue raiser.”

Patel, meanwhile, argues that raising revenue can be done more reliably and straightforwardly by Congress. Laws like Section 301 are traditionally intended to be used to address specific trade policy concerns in particular countries.

“It’s not supposed to be there to raise revenue,” she said. “If we want to raise revenue through tariffs, then Congress should impose a broad based tariff.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

U.S. President Donald Trump said he has demanded about seven countries send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open as Iranian strikes continued to rain down on Gulf countries Monday.

Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest, gradually restarted operations after a drone struck a fuel tank and started a fire. Authorities said it was quickly contained and no injuries were reported.

Tehran has accused the United States without evidence of using “ports, docks and hideouts” in the United Arab Emirates to launch strikes on Kharg Island, home to the main terminal handling Iran’s oil exports evidence, as oil prices soared. Brent crude oil was trading near $105 per barrel on Monday.

Trump said the U.S. is negotiating with countries heavily reliant on Middle East crude to join a coalition to police the waterway where about one-fifth the world’s traded oil normally flows, but declined to name them.

Israeli strikes have deepened Lebanon’s humanitarian crisis, with more than 850 people killed and over 850,000 displaced.

Here is the latest:

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplays oil price surge

The treasury secretary followed Trump’s lead Monday and dismissed concerns about rising oil prices since the start of the Iran war.

Bessent accused the media of “trying to make it into some crisis that it’s not,” and he insisted prices would come down after the conflict ends.

“I don’t know how many weeks it will be, but on the other side of this, the world will be safer, and we will be better supplied,” Bessent said on CNBC.

He said the Treasury Department hasn’t traded oil futures to try to cap prices. Asked whether it would going forward, the secretary said: “I’m not sure under what authority or what auspices” that would happen.

Trump’s Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told Bloomberg Television over the weekend that the administration has talked about that strategy.

Trump to hold a news conference on Monday

It adds to an already full slate of meetings and other activities on the president’s schedule for Monday morning.

He’s hosting a lunch with members of the Kennedy Center board, as well as signing an executive order on fraud with Vice President JD Vance later Monday afternoon.

The president says the news conference will be before the Kennedy Center lunch.

Explosions are heard in Qatar’s capital, Doha, amid an attack

The Interior Ministry urged people to remain indoors.

Sirens sound in Jerusalem and the surrounding area warning of incoming missiles from Iran

Sirens were also sounding in Bahrain Monday afternoon ahead of a potential attack, the country’s Interior Ministry said. The ministry urge people to head to the nearest safe place.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says China trip could be postponed

Leavitt says “leader-to-leader” talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are happening and that “at this point,” Trump looks forward to visiting China.

But those dates “may be moved,” she said.

“As commander-in-chief, it’s his number one priority right now to ensure the continued success of this Operation Epic Fury,” Leavitt told reporters at the White House on Monday morning.

UAE reports attacks by 6 missiles and 21 drones

The United Arab Emirates was attacked Monday with six ballistic missiles and 21 drones coming from Iran. That’s according to the Emirati Defence Ministry.

The ministry tallied 304 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles and 1,627 drones since the start of the war.

The attacks killed seven people including two troops, it said.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer defends decision to differ with Trump

Starmer has defended resisting President Trump’s pressure for the U.K. to join the war against Iran, saying he has “stood by my principles.”

Trump has berated the British leader for limiting the use of U.K. bases by American warplanes and declining to send an aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Trump complained to the Financial Times that “when I asked for them to come, they didn’t want to come.”

Starmer said at a news conference Monday that British troops should only be sent into action that is legal and has “a proper thought-through plan.”

He said U.K. opposition politicians who’ve criticized his stance “would have rushed the U.K. headlong into this war without the full picture of what they’re sending our forces into, and without a plan to get us out. That is not leading. It’s following.”

Iraq’s oil minister says new route for oil exports set to open

Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani said Monday in a video statement that a pipeline from the northern city of Kirkuk to Turkey will be operational within a week, allowing the country to resume oil exports interrupted by the ongoing regional war.

Iraq previously exported around 3.4 million barrels of oil a day through its southern port of Basra, he said, but “in light of the military operations and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraqi oil exports stopped two or three days after the beginning of the war in the region.”

Abdul-Ghani said the pipeline from Kirkuk to Turkey, with a capacity of 200,000 to 250,000 barrels a day, is currently undergoing hydrostatic testing. The route will bypass the semi-autonomous Kurdish area in northern Iraq after Baghdad could not reach an agreement with local authorities over conditions for exporting via another pipeline in the Kurdish region.

Israel says displaced Lebanese will have to wait to return home

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said those that fled southern Lebanon in the face of Israeli fighting against Hezbollah militants won’t be able to return home until northern Israel, which has been hit by barrages of rockets, is safe.

“Hezbollah will pay a heavy price for its aggression and activity in the Iranian axis to destroy Israel,” he said.

“We have promised security to the residents of the north, and that is exactly what we will do,” he said.

American efforts to protect Strait of Hormuz continue, US military commander says

The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East says American forces are zeroing in on Iran’s threats to freighters carrying oil and natural gas through a vital chokepoint in the Persian Gulf.

“We will continue to rapidly deplete Iran’s ability to threaten freedom of navigation in and around the Strait of Hormuz,” Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, said in a video posted to X on Monday.

Iranian strikes on commercial vessels have effectively stopped shipping traffic in the waterway, through which a fifth of the world’s oil is transported. That has dramatically increased the price of oil and put pressure on Washington to do something to ease the pain for consumers.

Trump says he may delay China trip as Iran war roils oil prices

President Trump may delay his China trip due to the Iran war, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday it’s not to pressure Beijing on the Strait of Hormuz.

Bessent said any delay to Trump’s trip to Beijing wouldn’t be because of disagreements over the Iran war or efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“If the meeting for some reason was rescheduled, it would be rescheduled because of logistics,” he said. “The president wants to remain in D.C. to coordinate the war and traveling abroad at a time like this may not be optimal.”

Trump has suggested he may delay the much-anticipated visit to China at the end of the month as he seeks to ramp up the pressure on Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and calm oil prices that have soared during the Iran war.

Italy signals reluctance to Trump’s call to help open Strait of Hormuz

Italy is the latest country to react cautiously to Trump’s demand that allies help open the Strait of Hormuz.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told reporters in Brussels on Monday that Italy backs reinforcing EU naval missions in the Red Sea.

But he added: “However, I don’t think these missions can be expanded to include the Strait of Hormuz, especially since they are anti-piracy and defensive missions.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said he has demanded about seven countries send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, as Iranian strikes continued to rain down on Gulf countries.

A Pakistani oil tanker transited through Strait of Hormuz

A vessel tracker says a first tanker carrying non-Iranian oil has transited through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pakistani-controlled tanker Karachi, which carries crude oil from Abu Dhabi, passed the strait on Sunday, according to data from MarineTraffic.

The tanker is now sailing in the Gulf of Oman, it said.

India expecting LPG ships that transited the Strait of Hormuz

India’s shipping ministry said Monday that an Indian-flagged vessel carrying liquefied petroleum gas is expected to arrive at a port later in the day with more than 40,000 metric tons of fuel.

Local media reported that the vessel sailed from Qatar’s Ras Laffan anchorage. The AP was not able to independently verify that.

A second ship is scheduled to dock on Tuesday, the ministry said. Both vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday.

Officials said 22 Indian-flagged vessels remain west of the strait.

Starmer says UK seeks ‘viable’ plan to open Strait of Hormuz

Prime Minister Keir Starmer says Britain is working with allies on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but “will not be drawn into the wider war.”

He spoke after U.S. President Donald Trump said he’d demanded U.S. allies send warships to open the key oil shipment route.

Starmer said Britain is discussing with the U.S. and allies in Europe and the Gulf the possibility of using mine-hunting drones that the U.K. has in the region. But he signalled the U.K. is unlikely to dispatch a warship.

Trump has berated Starmer for a perceived lack of support for the war, after the prime minister initially refused to allow the U.S. to use British bases to strike Iran.

Starmer said at a news conference Monday that Britain is seeking “a viable collective plan” to reopen the strait, adding that it is, “to say the least, not easy.”

Iran says Strait of Hormuz is closed only to US, Israel and their allies

Iran’s top diplomat says the key Strait of Hormuz is only cut off for vessels of the United States, Israel and their allies.

“From our perspective it is open,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said of the strait. “It is only closed to our enemies, to those who carried out unjust aggression against our country and to their allies.”

Araghchi spoke at a press conference in Tehran on Monday.

Israeli airstrike kills 4, including 2 children, in Lebanon

Lebanon’s Health Ministry says an Israeli airstrike on the southern village of Qantara killed four people, including two children.

A wall collapse in Gaza kills 3 Palestinians

Two Palestinian women and a child were killed Monday when a wall collapsed in the Gaza Strip, hospital authorities said.

The three-meter-high wall collapsed over tents sheltering displaced people in the southern city of Khan Younis, the city’s Nasser Hospital said.

The dead were relatives and included a six-year-old boy, a 17-year-old pregnant woman and an elderly woman, according to a hospital casualty list.

The Israel-Hamas war has wrecked Gaza, leaving the majority of the strip’s more than 2 million people living in tents or damaged buildings.

The war left 61 million tons of rubble — about as much as 15 Great Pyramids of Giza or 25 Eiffel Towers by volume, according to the U.N.

German minister says US-Israeli aims need clarity

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Monday it will be important for the U.S. and Israel to define “when they consider the military aims of their deployment to have been reached.”

Before meeting EU colleagues in Brussels, Wadephul said he told his U.S. and Israeli counterparts “we need more clarity here.”

He also said the Iranian government poses a significant danger to the region, the freedom of shipping and the global economy and “this danger definitely must not continue.”

Wadephul said without elaborating that he would back sanctions against those responsible for blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

He said once there is clarity on the U.S.-Israeli aims it will be time for a phase when “a security architecture for this whole region” is defined, which will entail speaking to Iran.

UK sending funds to Lebanon humanitarian groups

Britain is sending 5 million pounds ($6.6 million) to humanitarian organizations in Lebanon.

The funds are intended to help provide food, water and shelter for some of the more than 800,000 people displaced by Israel’s offensive against the militant group Hezbollah.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said she is “gravely concerned about the developing conflict in Lebanon and the scale of the humanitarian impact.”

She condemned Hezbollah’s strikes on Israel and said the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese people by Israeli operations “is completely unacceptable.”

Cooper said the U.K. is working with European allies and the U.S. to prevent the conflict from escalating.

Bahrain reports missile and drone attacks

Bahrain’s Defense Ministry says air defense systems have responded to attacks Monday morning.

The ministry says four missiles and three drones were fired.

Israel sends troops into Lebanon for ‘limited’ operation

The Israeli military says it sent additional ground troops into Lebanon for what it calls a “limited and targeted operation.”

Military spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani says the latest deployment is meant to defend Israeli border communities against attacks from the Hezbollah militant group.

Shoshani says Hezbollah has sent hundreds of fighters from its elite Radwan unit toward the border since the militant group entered the war two weeks ago.

He says Israel carried out artillery and airstrikes on multiple sites before sending in the troops.

Earlier in the war, Israel beefed up the presence of ground troops inside Lebanon in what it says is an attempt to prevent attacks on its northern border towns.

Israeli strikes on south Lebanon kill 3 including 2 paramedics

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency says one person was killed by an Israeli airstrike early Monday on a home in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Sir.

The agency says another strike occurred after paramedics from the Islamic Health Society, Hezbollah’s health arm, arrived at the scene.

The agency says the second strike killed two paramedics and wounded another person.

Israeli military says 70% of Iranian launchers destroyed

The Israeli military says it has destroyed an estimated 70% of Iran’s missile launchers during the first two weeks of the war.

Military spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani told reporters Monday that while Iran continues to fire missiles at Israel, the number of launches has been greatly reduced.

He says Israel has carried out some 7,600 strikes in Iran, knocking out 85% of Iran’s air defenses and targeting a number of Iranian nuclear sites.

Shoshani says the war will go on “for as long as needed” and says Israel still has thousands of targets it is prepared to strike.

China has no comment on Trump’s Strait of Hormuz request

A Chinese government spokesperson did not respond directly to questions about Trump’s request for military support from several countries to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Foreign Ministry’s Lin Jian, at a daily briefing in Beijing, instead repeated China’s calls for an end to the fighting, noting the impact on energy and goods trade.

Trump said in an interview with The Financial Times that the U.S. would like an answer from China before his planned trip to Beijing in about two weeks, and that “we may delay.”

Lin said China and the U.S. have maintained communication on Trump’s visit.

“Head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China–U.S. relations,” he said.

Drone strike starts fire at UAE oil facility

A fire broke out Monday following a drone attack on an industrial oil facility in Fujairah, one of the United Arab Emirates’ seven emirates, authorities said.

The Media Office in Fujairah said a drone targeted the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, causing an “advanced” fire.

No casualties were reported.

UAE says Palestinian killed in Abu Dhabi missile attack

A Palestinian civilian was killed in a missile attack early Monday in the United Arab Emirates capital Abu Dhabi, authorities said.

The Abu Dhabi Media Office said a missile fell on a civilian vehicle in Al Bahyah area

The death raised the toll to seven people in the UAE since the beginning of the war Feb. 18, authorities said.

EU weighs naval missions to reopen strait

The European Union is weighing two types of naval missions to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“It is in our interest to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and that’s why we are also discussing what we can do in this regard from the European side,” said Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief.

She made the announcement ahead of a gathering of the bloc’s foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday.

Rising prices for energy and fertilizers has brought the war in Iran to the top of their agenda, she said.

Kallas said the EU could expand its Aspides naval mission to protect shipping in the Red Sea up into the Persian Gulf or form a “coalition of the willing” with member nations contributing military capacity on an ad hoc basis.

Saudi Arabia reports drone attacks

Saudi Arabia says it intercepted three drones Monday morning over the capital Riyadh and the nation’s oil-rich western region.

The Saudi Defense Ministry says no casualties or damage were reported.

The ministry reports more than 60 drones attacked the Gulf country within a few hours.

Some flights resume at Dubai airport

United Arab Emirates officials say Dubai International Airport has gradually resumed some flights at hours after a drone strike.

Dubai Civil Aviation Authority announced flights are operating to selected destinations, according to the Dubai Media Office.

Emirates airline says limited operations have resumed at the airport.

A drone struck a fuel tank at the airport early Monday, causing a fire and forcing the temporary suspension of flights.

Brent crude trades near $105

Brent crude oil is trading near the $105 per barrel level on Monday.

A barrel of Brent, the international standard, was up 1.6% at $104.73, dipping slightly after opening above $106 per barrel. It’s up more than 40% since the war began.

Share prices in Asia were mixed and U.S. futures advanced.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

About 3,800 workers at one of the nation’s largest meatpacking plants went on strike Monday in Colorado in what union representatives said is the first walkout at a U.S. beef slaughterhouse in four decades.

The strike at the Swift Beef Co. plant in Greeley began Monday morning, said Claire Poundstone, an attorney representing workers with United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7. Poundstone said she expected workers to participate in the strike line through the evening.

“We’ll be here all day,” she said.

The strike follows accusations from union officials that owner JBS USA retaliated against workers and committed other unfair labor practices amid contract negotiations. A previous contract expired Sunday night.

A message was sent early Monday seeking an updated comment from a spokesperson at JBS USA.

The union said in a news release that its workers “perform some of the most difficult and dangerous jobs in the country.”

“They deserve wage increases that keep pace with inflation, ensure they receive healthcare commensurate with the toll this work takes on their bodies, and that allow them to live with dignity and respect.”

It said JBS has been charging many workers at least $1,100 to offset the company’s expenses for personal protective equipment needed to ensure worker safety.

The strike comes at a 75-year low for the U.S. cattle population, with a Jan. 1 inventory of 86.2 million animals — down 1% from the prior year. Rising beef prices have added to economic anxiety in the U.S., while the administration of President Donald Trump has turned to a trade deal with Argentina in efforts to lower prices for food, including beef.

It also follows the January closure of a meatpacking plant in Lexington, Nebraska, which was expected to ripple through the local economy and community. Tyson Foods cited the smaller herd and millions of dollars in expected losses this year.

At the Greeley plant, the company tried to intimidate workers to quit the union in one-on-one meetings, union general counsel Matt Shechter said. A JBA USA statement issued before the strike said the company fully complies with federal and state labor and employment laws.

Kim Cordova, Local 7 president, said 99% of workers voted to authorize the strike. No formal negotiations took place over the weekend after the company refused a union request to negotiate on Saturday, Shechter said.

The company statement said any employee who didn’t want to strike would have work and be paid. The company said it would operate two shifts at the plant Monday and would temporarily move production as needed to other JBS facilities.

“Our goal is to minimize impact to our customers, our partners, and the broader marketplace while we work toward a fair resolution in Greeley,” the company said.

It’s the first strike at a U.S. slaughterhouse since workers walked out at a Hormel plant in Minnesota in 1985, Cordova said. That strike lasted more than a year and included violent confrontations between police and protesters, according to the Minnesota Historical Society.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” was crowned best picture at the 98th Academy Awards, handing Hollywood’s top honor to a comic, multi-generational American saga of political resistance.

The ceremony Sunday, which also saw Michael B. Jordan win best actor and “Sinners” cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw make Oscar history as the first female director of photography to win the award, was a long-in-coming coronation for Anderson, a San Fernando Valley native who made his first short at age 18 and has been one of America’s most lionized filmmakers for decades. Before Sunday, Anderson had never won an Oscar.

But “One Battle After Another,” the favorite coming in, won six Oscars, including best director and best adapted screenplay for Anderson, the Oscars’ first trophy for best casting and best supporting actor for an absent Sean Penn.

“I wrote this movie for my kids to say sorry for the housekeeping mess that we left in this world — we’re handing off to them,” said Anderson while accepting the screenplay trophy. “But also with the encouragement that they will be the generation that hopefully brings us some common sense and decency.”

Ryan Coogler’s Jim Crow-set, blues-soaked vampire tale “Sinners,” which came in with a record 16 nominations, also landed some big and even historic wins. Coogler, the widely loved filmmaker, won the first Oscar in an unblemished career that started out with Jordan in 2013’s “Fruitvale Station.”

Arkapaw was also the first Black person to win for best cinematography. Only the fourth female cinematographer ever nominated, her win was a long-in-coming triumph for women behind the camera.

“I really want all the women in room to stand up,” said Arkapaw. “Because I don’t feel like I get here without you guys.”

And Jordan, one of Hollywood’s most liked leading men, won best actor in one of the night’s closest races. The Dolby Theatre rose to its feet in the most thunderous applause of the night.

“Yo, momma, what’s up?” said Jordan after staggering to the stage.

The Oscar night belonged to Warner Bros., the studio of “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners,” which scored a record-tying 11 wins. It was an oddly poignant note of triumph for the fabled studio, which weeks earlier agreed to a sale to Paramount Skydance, David Ellison’s rapidly assembled media monolith. The $111 billion deal, which awaits regulatory approval, has Hollywood bracing for more layoffs.

But “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” — the much-acclaimed heavyweights of the season — were each Hollywood anomalies: big-budget originals born from a personal vision. In a year where anxiety over studio contraction and the rise of artificial intelligence often consumed the industry, both films gave Hollywood fresh hope.

Jessie Buckley won best actress for her performance as Agnes Shakespeare in “Hamnet,” making her the first Irish performer to ever win in the category. At an Oscars where no other acting award seemed a sure thing, Buckley cruised into Sunday’s Oscars at the Dolby Theatre as the overwhelming favorite.

“It’s Mother’s Day in the U.K.,” said Buckley on the stage. “I would like to dedicated this to the beautiful chaos of a mother’s heart.”

‘KPop’ and ‘Frankenstein’ win for Netflix

From the start, when host Conan O’Brien sprinted through the year’s nominees as Amy Madigan’s character in the horror thriller “Weapons” in a pre-taped bit, Sunday’s ceremony was quirky, a little clunky and preoccupied with the shifting place of movies in culture. There was, of all things, a tie for best live-action short film.

As expected, the Netflix sensation “KPop Demon Hunters,” 2025’s most-watched film, won best animated feature, as well as best song for “Golden.” It was a big win for Netflix but a more qualified victory for the movie’s producer, Sony Pictures. Though it developed and produced the film, Sony sold “KPop Demon Hunters” to the streaming giant instead of giving it a theatrical release.

On Netflix, “KPop Demon Hunters” became a cultural phenomenon and the streaming platform’s biggest hit. It has more than 325 million views and counting.

“This is for Korea and Koreans everywhere,” said co-director Maggie Kang.

Another Netflix release, Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” picked up three awards for its lavish craft, for costume design, makeup and hairstyling and for production design.

Amy Madigan won best supporting actress for her performance in the horror thriller “Weapons,” a win that came 40 years after the 75-year-old actor was first nominated, in 1986, for “Twice in a Lifetime.” Letting out a giant laugh as she hit the stage, Madigan exclaimed, “This is great!”

O’Brien presides over a ceremony shadowed by politics

Hosting for the second time, O’Brien began the Dolby Theatre show alluding to “chaotic and frightening times.” But he argued that the current geopolitical climate made the Oscars all the more resonate as a globally unifying force.

“We pay tribute tonight, not just to film, but to the ideals of global artistry, collaboration, patience, resilience and that rarest of qualities today — optimism,” O’Brien said. “We’re going to celebrate. Not because we think all is well, but because we work, and hope, for better.”

Throughout the show, O’Brien hit a number of targets, like Timothée Chalamet — who again missed out on winning his first Oscar, this time for “Marty Supreme” — for his diss of opera and ballet. But the ceremony seldom wasn’t shadowed by politics, whether in references to changes under U.S. President Donald Trump or the recently launched war in Iran.

Joachim Trier, whose Norwegian family drama “Sentimental Value” won best international film, quoted James Baldwin in his acceptance speech: “All adults are responsible for all children,” he said. “Let’s not vote for politicians that don’t take this seriously into account.”

Presenter Jimmy Kimmel, whose late-night show last year was suspended after comments he made about Charlie Kirk’s killing, was among the most blunt.

“There are some countries that don’t support free speech,” said Kimmel. “I’m not at liberty to say which. Let’s just leave it at North Korea and CBS.”

Shortly after, “Mr. Nobody Against Putin,” a film about a Russian primary schoolteacher who documents his students’ indoctrination to support Russia’s war with Ukraine, won best documentary.

“’Mr. Nobody Against Putin’ is about how you lose your country,” co-director said. “And what we saw when working with this footage is that you lose it through countless, small, little acts of complicity.”

“We all face a moral choice,” he added, “but, luckily, a nobody is more powerful than you think.”

Tributes to Reiner, Redford and others

Elegy also marked the Oscars. Producers expanded the in memoriam segment following a year that featured the deaths of so many Hollywood legends, including Keaton, Robert Duvall and Redford. Barbra Streisand spoke about Redford, her “The Way We Were” co-star.

“Bob had real backbone,” said Streisand, who called Redford “an intellectual cowboy” before singing a few bars of “The Way We Were.”

Billy Crystal paid tribute to Rob and Michele Reiner, who were killed in their home in December. Crystal, a close friend of Rob Reiner’s who memorably starred in 1989’s “When Harry Met Sally…” and 1987’s “Princess Bride.” In his moving remarks, Crystal quoted the latter.

“All we can say is: Buddy, how much fun we had storming the castle,” said Crystal.

Theatrical bests streaming, again

Yet again, the night’s final award again didn’t go to a streaming release; Apple’s “CODA” remains the only streaming film to achieve that distinction. “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” were both theatrical releases shot on film.

Apple’s top contender this time, the Formula One race drama “F1,” a movie that it partnered with Warner Bros. to distribute theatrically, won for best sound. The lone blockbuster of the year to go home with a win was “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” for visual effects.

Some of O’Brien’s best digs came at the expense of the streamers. Netflix chief Ted Sarandos, he joked, was in a theater for the first time. The host also lamented the lack of nominees for Amazon MGM: “Why isn’t the website I order toilet paper from winning more Oscars?”

“I’m honored to be the last human host of the Academy Awards,” said O’Brien. “Next year it’s going to be a Waymo in a tux.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Iran urged people Saturday to evacuate the Middle East’s busiest port and two others in the United Arab Emirates, openly threatening a neighboring country’s non-U.S. assets for the first time as its war with the United States and Israel entered a third week.

Tehran said the U.S. had used “ports, docks and hideouts” in the UAE to launch strikes on Kharg Island, home to the main terminal handling Iran’s oil exports, without providing evidence. It urged people to leave areas where it said U.S. forces were sheltering.

Hours later, there was no sign of an attack on Dubai’s Jebel Ali port — the Mideast’s busiest — or the Khalifa port in Abu Dhabi. But debris from an intercepted Iranian drone hitting an oil facility sparked a fire at the third port, in Fujairah.

Iran says the US attacked from close to Dubai

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told MS NOW that the U.S. attacked Kharg Island and Abu Musa Island from two locations in the UAE, Ras Al-Khaimah and a place “very close to Dubai,” calling that dangerous and saying Iran “will try to be careful not to attack any populated area” there.

U.S. Central Command said it had no response to Iran’s claim. A diplomatic adviser to the UAE’s president, Anwar Gargash, said on social media the country has the right to defend itself but “still prioritizes reason and logic, and continues exercising restraint.”

Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Arab Gulf neighbors during the war, but it has said it was targeting U.S. assets, even as hits or attempts were reported on civilian ones such as airports and oil fields.

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the country “obliterated” military sites on Kharg Island and that oil infrastructure could be next if Tehran continues to interfere with ships’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of global oil supplies usually transit.

Iran’s parliamentary speaker has said strikes against the country’s oil infrastructure would provoke a new level of retaliation.

Araghchi told MS NOW that the strait was closed only to “those who are attacking us and their allies.”

As global anxiety soars over oil prices and supplies, Trump said Saturday that he hopes China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and others send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz “open and safe.” Britain in response said it was discussing with allies a “range of options” to secure shipping.

Araghchi, in a social media post, urged neighbors to “expel foreign aggressors” and described Trump’s call as “begging.”

Iran repeats threat against US-linked oil assets

On Saturday, Iran’s joint military command reiterated its threat to attack U.S.-linked “oil, economic and energy infrastructures” in the region if the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure is hit.

Iran’s semiofficial Fars news agency said the Kharg Island strikes caused no damage to oil infrastructure. It said they targeted an air defense facility, a naval base, the airport control tower and an offshore oil company’s helicopter hangar.

U.S. Central Command said it destroyed naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers and other military sites.

Israel earlier announced another wave of strikes in Iran targeting infrastructure, and said its air force had hit more than 200 targets in the past 24 hours, including missile launchers, defense systems and weapons production sites.

Another attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad

A missile struck a helipad inside the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad on Saturday. No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. The embassy complex, one of the largest U.S. diplomatic facilities in the world, has been repeatedly targeted by rockets and drones fired by Iran-aligned militias.

The State Department again warned citizens in Iraq to leave “now,” and by land since commercial flights were not available. It noted that Iran and Iran-aligned militia groups “may continue to target” U.S. citizens, interests and infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s humanitarian crisis deepened, with over 800 people killed and 850,000 displaced as Israel launched waves of strikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants.

Marines and an assault ship will add to US forces

A U.S. official said Friday that 2,500 more Marines with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli were being sent to the Middle East, adding to the military’s largest buildup of warships and aircraft in the region in decades. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans.

Marine Expeditionary Units can conduct amphibious landings but also specialize in bolstering security at embassies, evacuating civilians and providing disaster relief. The deployment doesn’t necessarily indicate that a ground operation will take place. The Wall Street Journal first reported the Marine deployment.

The Tripoli was spotted by commercial satellites sailing near Taiwan, putting it more than a week away from waters off Iran.

Earlier in the week, the Navy had 12 ships, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and eight destroyers, in the Arabian Sea. The total number of U.S. service members on the ground in the Middle East is not clear.

US identifies 6 killed in military aircraft crash

The U.S. Department of Defense on Saturday identified six service members who died when the military refueling aircraft they were aboard crashed Thursday while supporting operations against Iran.

The service members were Maj. John A. Klinner, 33; Capt. Ariana G. Savino, 31; Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt, 34; Capt. Seth R. Koval, 38; Capt. Curtis J. Angst, 30; and Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons, 28, according to U.S. officials.

The crash in western Iraq followed an unspecified incident involving two aircraft in “friendly airspace,” according to U.S. Central Command. The other plane landed safety.

___

Mednick reported from Tel Aviv, Israel, Magdy from Cairo and Toropin from Washington. Associated Press reporters Melanie Lidman in Jerusalem; Sally Abou AlJoud, Kareem Chehayeb and Bassem Mroue in Beirut; Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad; Will Weissert at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland; Tia Goldenberg in Washington and Hannah Schoenbaum in Salt Lake City contributed.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

As of 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil sold for $102.14 per barrel (using Brent as the benchmark, which we’ll get into momentarily). That’s $3.05 lower than yesterday—but approximately a $30 rise over the past year.

Will oil prices go up?

It’s impossible to predict the future of oil prices. Several factors determine the movement of oil, but it ultimately boils down to supply and demand. Again, when threats of economic downturn, war, etc. are high, the oil trajectory can turn rapidly.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

When you pay for gas at the pump, you’re paying for more than just the crude oil itself; you’re also springing for links along the chain, such as the refineries and wholesalers—not to mention taxes and local gas station markups.

Still, the crude oil aspect affects the final price most dramatically, as it typically accounts for more than half the price per gallon. When oil prices spike, so do gas prices. And frustratingly, when oil prices drop, gas prices tend to take their time drifting down to the lower price (sometimes referred to as “rockets and feathers”).

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It’s not a long-term answer—more of an immediate relief to assist the consumer and keep critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Oil and natural gas are both major energy fuels. A big change in oil prices can affect natural gas by extension. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible—which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

When examining oil’s performance, there are generally two major benchmarks:

• Brent crude oil is the main global oil benchmark.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the main benchmark of North America.

Between the two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:

• The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
• Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
• During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.

All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

Energy coverage from Fortune

Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:

• With Iran still in control of Hormuz, Trump threatens NATO and oil hits $106
• The closed Strait of Hormuz is testing Asia’s energy security
• U.S. energy chief signals Iran war may last several more weeks

Frequently asked questions

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

In 2024, law firm Sidley Austin and consulting giant Deloitte both signed leases at 23Springs, a gleaming 26-story tower in Dallas’s Uptown submarket. The numbers looked like acomeback story: average office rents in the city were rising.

They weren’t. Or rather, the numbers didn’t mean what most people assumed they meant. And that gap between what headline rent data shows and what tenants actually pay is distorting decisions made by mayors, lenders, and corporate real estate teams across the country.

Traditional rent statistics answer a deceptively simple question: “What is the average rent per square foot among leases signed this quarter?” For decades, rent averages have been the best measure of a rental market, shaping how economists, investors, lenders, and policymakers understand commercial, retail, and industrial markets. From how cities set property taxes to how lenders underwrite loans and how companies decide where to expand or sign leases, these figures influence major decisions.

A more illuminating approach – comparing like with like in similar locations, and accounting for the concessions for tenants in lease terms – paints a different picture in Dallas. At best, office rents have stalled. That difference matters: when business leaders and policymakers rely on headline averages that make the market appear healthier than it really is, they may make decisions based on a distorted picture of demand. Business leaders deciding where to expand or how much office space to carry are looking at numbers that do not reflect the true cost—or the true weakness—of the market.

This isn’t just a quirk in Dallas. It’s a nationwide measurement problem.

While rent averages can provide a rough guide to the market in regular times, they often fall short – particularly during unprecedented times. In the years following COVID‑19, they were misleading.

Why the Standard Metric Fails

There’s a few reasons why. First, these averages overlook who is signing leases. During and after the pandemic, many tenants gave up older, peripheral offices and upgraded to newer buildings in better locations with better facilities. These newer buildings charged more rent, and this shift pushes the average up. This can be the case even if landlords in less‑favored buildings are quietly cutting prices or sweetening terms. Traditional metrics can’t tell the difference between “rents are rising everywhere” and “more leases are being signed for top‑tier buildings.”

Second, rent averages ignore that a lease that looks expensive on paper can actually be very discounted in reality. Landlords often offer months of free rent, and many pay for tenants to build out their space. In Manhattan, for example, the share of total lease value devoted to tenant improvement allowances roughly doubled in the decade before COVID and has remained high. Free rent periods have expanded significantly in the past few years. When standard metrics focus only on the starting rent price, they’re ignoring the concessions that change the value of the lease. 

This matters because bad data leads to bad decisions. For example, a mayor who thinks office rents are rising may push through aggressive reassessments and higher property taxes, only to find that the commercial real estate market is far weaker than what the numbers suggested. A lender who underwrites loans on the basis of flattering averages may discover too late that the collateral was overstated. Corporate real estate teams deciding whether to expand, relocate, or renegotiate leases may also misread the true cost and demand for space.

Commercial real estate sits at the center of the financial system. Office towers, shopping centers, and warehouses underpin billions of dollars in loans, municipal tax bases, and corporate balance sheets. When the metrics used to judge these markets are misleading, the ripple effects extend well beyond landlords—to banks, investors, cities, and the businesses deciding where to locate and grow.

A New Way to Measure the Market

To build a clearer picture of the office, commercial, and industrial markets, Columbia Business School and CompStak are collaborating on a new way to analyze publicly available leases. The new Columbia CompStak Rent Index compares similar spaces in similar locations over time and measures the net effective rent tenants actually pay, after accounting for concessions like free months and build-out allowances. It draws rent, lease size and term, concession structures, building characteristics, and precise location from roughly one million detailed leases signed since 2010 across office, retail, and industrial properties in about 130 U.S. metropolitan areas. At each level, the index controls for the stable features of the building and location, and uses the remaining variation to show rent growth or decline over time. By controlling for building characteristics and location, the index isolates real changes in rents rather than shifts in which buildings are leasing space.

What the Data Actually Shows

When rents are analyzed through this index, the market looks very different. For example, in Manhattan, high-rise buildings have landed eye‑catching leases. Average starting rents in prime districts continue to go up, and one can easily assume that office rent prices are finally going up, after years of being battered by work‑from‑home. However, the data through our index shows that quality‑adjusted office rents in Manhattan fell sharply during the pandemic. By mid‑2025 they had only just clawed back to where they started. Manhattan’s office market did not even turn the corner until the second half of 2025, when the quality‑adjusted rents jumped from about $71.60 per square foot in the second quarter to $83.30 in the fourth. The rent increase in top-tier buildings was still happening but there were many buildings struggling to fill space.

In retail too, when a major flagship store signs a spectacular lease in a premier shopping district, raw rent averages jump. This makes it seem that the market is healthy. Yet when we hold quality and location constant, the retail rent index shows muted growth over the last 15 years, with no sustained upward trend. At the same time, industrial real estate is actually showing a real boom. The pandemic turbocharged demand for logistics space as households and businesses leaned into online ordering and just‑in‑time delivery. In that sector, our constant‑quality index and the traditional measures clearly note a strong, nationwide surge in rents for warehouses, logistics hubs, and distribution centers, which has recently cooled a bit due to higher interest rates and a wave of new supply. 

Commercial real estate has always been an opaque market where rents are set in bilateral negotiations, recorded in private documents, and reported with delays. When analysts look only at the rent averages, it’s easy to misread the health of the market and make policy and investment decisions on the wrong basis. For business leaders, lenders, and policymakers, the lesson is straightforward: the headline rent numbers don’t tell the full story about the commercial real estate market. Decisions about investment, lending, tax policy, or office strategy should rely on data that reflects what tenants actually pay—not just the averages that dominate today’s market reports.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com