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The U.S. budget deficit inched closer to $2 trillion after the first 11 months of fiscal year 2026, the Treasury Department reported on Sept. 11.
August’s Monthly Treasury Statement showed the federal government logging a $167 billion shortfall, far below the consensus estimate of a $404 billion deficit.
Last month’s shortfall marked a 61 percent decline from July’s $432 billion gap. It was also down 52 percent from August 2025’s $345 billion deficit.
Overall, the fiscal year-to-date budget deficit totaled $1.97 trillion, almost $200 billion higher than the same 11-month span in the prior fiscal year.
Tax receipts were $360 billion last month, bringing this fiscal year’s total to nearly $4.9 trillion. This was slightly lower than the $5.2 trillion posted during the same 11-month span in fiscal year 2025….

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Wall Street ended the week with broad losses amid a wave of negative headlines, from soaring oil prices and bond yields to trade tensions, elevated inflation, and an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB), all of which weighed on investor sentiment. Traders are now betting on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week.
Interest-rate-sensitive stocks, such as small caps, were hit the hardest. Semiconductor shares were the bright spot in bargain hunting after the profit-taking of the previous weeks.
Stocks rallied Friday as oil prices retreated and bond yields stabilized, but the gains weren’t enough to erase the week’s losses. …

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Changing jobs is paying off again for American workers, with Gen Z seeing the largest gains, according to a new Bank of America study.
Pay increases associated with switching jobs reached their highest level in more than three years in July, according to an analysis published on Wednesday by the Bank of America Institute. The annual average of those pay gains has also begun to rise after declining for several years.
“Gen Z continue to benefit the most from changing jobs, while workers paid by the hour are also making particularly large gains from switching,” the report said.
The findings are based on aggregated and anonymized Bank of America deposit-account data. The bank estimates pay gains by comparing a worker’s first three months of pay at a new employer with the same three-month period a year prior….

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The national average price of a gallon of diesel hit a record high on Friday, exceeding $6 for the first time as tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt oil shipments.
Diesel powers much of the country’s trucking, freight, farming, and delivery networks, with higher fuel prices raising the cost of transporting everyday goods.
The national average price of diesel hit $6.06 a gallon on Sept. 11, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), up from $5.98 the previous day and $5.85 a week earlier.
While the $6 level is largely a psychological milestone, it signals mounting pressure on businesses and consumers alike.
“Not every day are new all-time records set, and this will be a particularly painful one for the economy that may not even be immediately felt, but record diesel prices will impact every cargo, shipment, every delivery Americans are taking, and are likely to reignite inflation up and down the supply chain,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a statement….

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The 10-year Treasury yield hit a peak of 4.982 percent on Thursday, its highest level in nearly three years.
The last time the yield was at this level was on Oct. 26, 2023. Yields have been rising since March after the U.S.–Iran war broke out on Feb. 28.
On March 2, the yield opened at 3.932 and traded at 4.947 as of 5:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 11, up more than 25 percent. Yields rose on Sept. 9 and 10 following the Treasury Department’s Wednesday announcement that it would buy back $6 billion in government treasuries.
On Aug. 19, the Treasury announced an update to the size of bond buybacks from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective Sept. 9. This applies to 10-year treasuries as well. At the time, the department said that the increase in buybacks is aimed at providing “greater liquidity support” to treasuries….

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Commentary
With the latest earnings season now wrapped up, The Wall Street Journal reported the S&P 500’s second-quarter earnings soared 53%, and sales rose 16%. Tariff refunds apparently helped boost this robust rate of earnings growth, but no matter how you analyze it, earnings momentum peaked in the second quarter and will likely decelerate in upcoming quarters. But there’s no reason to panic, as the S&P 500’s earnings growth should still be around a 30% annual pace and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios will remain under compression. In my opinion, the stock market remains grossly undervalued relative to the bond market….

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A barrel of Brent crude oil topped $100 again for the first time since July as the U.S.–Iran conflict fuels global energy supply concerns.
Brent—the global seaborne benchmark for oil prices that is more sensitive to geopolitical tensions—rose 3 percent to almost $101 per barrel on Sept. 9 in overseas trading.
The international benchmark, which carries a higher risk premium, has risen 14 percent over the past month and nearly 66 percent this year.
U.S. crude prices are also eyeing $100 again as a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil climbed 3 percent to almost $96 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It has also jumped 16 percent since early August and has rocketed 67 percent year to date….

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President Donald Trump directed the General Services Administration (GSA) on Tuesday to take steps to remove Canadian-origin products from a Multiple Award Schedule that accounts for more than $50 billion a year in transactions.
Trump posted on Truth Social that he wants the GSA to work with the U.S. Trade Representative to “take all necessary steps” to remove Canadian products from the GSA’s Multiple Award Schedules “unless Canada restores full and fair reciprocity for American Farmers and Companies.”
The GSA’s Multiple Award Schedule is a government-wide contracting program that gives federal agencies access to millions of commercial products and services through streamlined purchasing procedures….

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Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion in U.S. goods took effect just after midnight on Sept. 8, aimed at applying economic pressure on the United States.
Since President Donald Trump unveiled the contours of his expansive trade agenda in April 2025, Canada has been one of two nations—the other being China—to retaliate.
The two countries are now engaged in tit-for-tat tariffs.
Here’s what to know about Canada’s counter-tariffs on American exports.
Inside Canada’s Dollar-for-Dollar Tariffs
Canada’s dollar-for-dollar tariffs will target 7 percent of U.S. exports north of the border. They will home in on a large basket of goods—from steel and aluminum to carpets and cheese—with rates ranging from 15 to 50 percent….

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A total of 52,007 bankruptcy filings were made by individuals and businesses in August, up 8 percent from a year ago amid cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI).
There were 49,377 filings made by individuals last month, up 9 percent year-over-year, and 2,630 commercial filings with a 2 percent increase, ABI said in a Sept. 4 statement.
“Persistent cost pressures, restrictive credit markets, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to create challenges for consumers and small businesses facing economic distress,” said Amy Quackenboss, executive director at ABI.
While ABI didn’t identify specific geopolitical issues, the U.S.–Iran war shows no signs of easing. On Monday, Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf threatened that Tehran would launch fresh attacks against American energy infrastructure or assets in the Middle East….

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News Analysis
Current economic conditions in the United States are gaining momentum, while the record-breaking stock market rally could be losing steam.
Artificial intelligence has been the dominant theme for Wall Street and Main Street over the past few years.
Leading hyperscalers, from Alphabet to SpaceX, are betting big on the revolutionary technology. This year’s capital expenditures are forecast to reach up to $1 trillion, and early estimates suggest spending will top the trillion-dollar mark again next year.
To support the infrastructure buildout, demand for computing hardware, cooling systems, power infrastructure, and storage has been ferocious.
This has fueled a boom for numerous companies, driving a tech-led surge in the equities market. Despite fears of a circular ecosystem—tech firms investing in each other and then spending that money on their products—investors have waved off these worries….

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Canada’s counter-tariffs on American goods, ranging from seafood to furniture and worth $20 billion, went into effect just after midnight on Sept. 8 as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney sought to hit back following the collapse of trade talks last month.
Canada says its tariffs match Washington’s dollar for dollar, and cover about 6 percent of the $333.6 billion the United States exported to Canada last year. RBC Economics, the research arm of the Royal Bank of Canada, said the Canadian tariffs could hit some U.S. businesses hard but were unlikely to dent growth overall.
Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced the tariffs on Aug. 25, following the collapse of trade talks between Washington and Ottawa on Aug. 21….

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American travelers are facing record-high gasoline prices this Labor Day weekend as conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to global fuel supplies keep prices elevated.
The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at about $4.15 on Saturday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). That is nearly $1 higher than a year ago.
This year’s Labor Day is now on track to become the first in history with a national average above $4 a gallon. The previous Labor Day record was $3.82 a gallon, set on Sept. 3, 2012.
GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan expects the national average to be around $4.03 on Labor Day, well above the previous record….

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U.S. Customs began collecting new Section 232 tariffs of up to 100 percent on imported thermal drones and automated docking systems on Sept. 3.
The duties apply to equipment made by Shenzhen-based DJI that is already used by U.S. police and public safety agencies, while government records show some agencies are still planning or carrying out purchases of the Chinese company’s systems.
Thermal drones use heat-sensing cameras to locate people, fires, or other heat sources. Docking stations allow compatible drones to launch, land, recharge, and operate remotely.
Agencies Still Buying DJI Systems
One of the clearest current examples is in South Carolina….

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Stocks finished the week mixed as oil prices climbed and hiring data came in stronger than forecast, leaving investors with no clear read on where markets head next.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.27 percent for the week to 53,414. The S&P 500 edged up 0.09 percent to 7,718, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 0.4 percent gain. The Russell 2000 rose 0.11 percent.
Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index climbed 0.69 percent to 14.53, a sign investors are pricing in more risk.
Oil and Bond Yields
Oil led the market’s action early in the week, with Brent crude rising above $92 a barrel on Tuesday in a two-day rally as tensions in the Middle East flared, reviving fears of disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. …

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U.S. payrolls accelerated in August as the economy unexpectedly created 162,000 new jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This marks the best monthly employment gain since March.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent for the second straight month.
Last month’s surge was broad-based, led by food services and drinking places (59,000), government education (42,000), construction (22,000), and manufacturing (16,000).
This is a developing story. Please check back for further updates.
…

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Property delistings nationwide recorded a year-over-year decline toward the end of this summer, as sellers showed more patience than they did a year ago and a larger share were willing to cut prices, according to Realtor.com.
The August 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report, released on Sept. 2, indicated that delistings declined 12.6 percent in August from a year earlier, following decreases of 8.3 percent in June and 4.7 percent in July compared with the respective months in 2025.
By contrast, the December 2025 Realtor.com report showed that delistings in June and July 2025 jumped by 48 percent and 57 percent, respectively, from the same months in 2024.
The report attributed the sharp rise in delistings last summer to elevated home prices, higher mortgage interest rates, and economic uncertainty. The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was around 6.6 percent to 6.8 percent during summer 2025, according to Freddie Mac….

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New data show that claims for unemployment benefits and planned layoffs crept up ahead of the highly anticipated August jobs report.
The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits ticked up by 2,000 to 206,000 for the week ending Aug. 29, according to the Department of Labor.
This was close to the consensus estimate of 205,000.
Stripping out week-to-week volatility, the four-week average edged up to above 207,000.
Unemployment claims have remained in a tight, historically low range of 189,000 to 230,000 throughout the year.
Economists and policymakers use it as a real-time indicator of the labor market’s health, and the numbers reaffirm consistently low-fire conditions….

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Assistant Foreign Minister Matt Thistlethwaite has admitted the federal government’s tax changes have contributed to falling house prices.
His comments come after Australia’s largest bank, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), predicted house prices could fall by 9 percent from their March 2026 peak.
“There’s no doubt that our policies are part of a suite of reasons,” Thistlethwaite told News24 on Sept. 2 when asked if the housing price fall was due to a policy change from his government.
“But we’re confident that we’ve got the balance right because the housing market was out of control and we needed to make housing more affordable.”…

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U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the eighth consecutive month in August, a major trade association said.
According to a Sept. 1 report by the Institute for Supply Management, last month’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI)—a monthly survey that reflects the industry’s prevailing economic direction—came in at 54.6, from July’s four-year high of 55.6.
This came in slightly below the market estimate of 55.2.
Despite August’s modest deceleration, the Institute for Supply Management’s reading marked the eighth straight monthly expansion in factory activity, suggesting that manufacturing contributed positively to third-quarter economic growth prospects.
Five out of the six largest manufacturing industries registered growth….

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Commentary
Nvidia (NVDA) provided the grand finale last Wednesday to an incredible earnings announcement season. For its latest quarter, Nvidia reported revenues up 106% to $96.2 billion. Data center revenue accounted for $89 billion, a 117% annual increase. In the past four quarters, Nvidia’s earnings surged by 118% to $53.96 billion, or $2.22 per share, compared with $24.76 billion (or $1.01 per share). The analyst community expected $2.09 per share, so Nvidia posted a 6.2% earnings surprise. Even more exciting, the company expects 70% annual revenue growth next year, well above analysts’ estimates of 45%. CEO Jensen Huang noted revenue would accelerate even faster if there weren’t a memory chip shortage. This guidance and his comment triggered a big rally in memory stocks and helped re-ignite a big rally in AI-related stocks….

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture has unveiled a new package of measures aimed at rebuilding the nation’s cattle herds, which have fallen to their lowest levels in 75 years.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Monday announced the Ranchers First Initiative, which includes new insurance options for ranchers, loans for smaller meat processors, and expanded disaster assistance for some conserved grasslands.
The measures are expected to ease the ongoing cattle shortage. According to USDA, the United States entered 2026 with 86.2 million cattle and calves, the smallest inventory since the early 1950s.
Encouraging Ranchers to Rebuild Herds
The new USDA initiative focuses on encouraging ranchers to keep more young female cattle for breeding instead of selling them for slaughter….

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When it comes to offering the best mix of availability, affordability, and desirability, several metros across the South are ranked as the top choices for Americans seeking new-construction homes, according to Realtor.com.
The Aug. 31 report notes that eight of the top 10 best metros for buying a new home are located in the South, where land is available, cheaper, and “builder-friendly,” with more permissive zoning and less restrictive building codes.
Charleston, South Carolina, nabbed the top spot among the 100 largest U.S. metros, with new homes priced at a median of $443,273—12.2 percent below the national median existing home price of $504,832.
“New construction is one of the most important ways to expand the supply of homes available to buyers, but the opportunity is not evenly distributed across the country,” Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner said in the report. …

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Artificial intelligence models are advancing rapidly, increasing the speed, scale, and affordability of cyberattacks, potentially putting the global financial system at risk, the Financial Stability Board warned G20 ministers and central bank governors in a letter.
The United States is hosting the G20 Finance Ministerial, a two-day meeting of central bank leaders, finance ministers, and top names from the world’s leading economies in Asheville, North Carolina, this week. Officials are dealing with a heavy portfolio of issues, from global bond market volatility to stubborn price pressures, and artificial intelligence (AI) could also be central to the talks.
“Frontier AI offers significant opportunities to strengthen cyber defence; but recent developments highlight the importance of ensuring that advances in capability are matched by resilience and preparedness,” the financial watchdog’s chair, Andrew Bailey, who is also Bank of England governor, wrote in the Aug. 28 letter….

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U.S. President Donald Trump on Aug. 30 urged Canadian companies that do business with the United States to move their operations south of the border to avoid tariffs.
“Let all Canadian Companies that are doing business with America move to the United States, immediately,” he wrote in a Truth Social post.
“Many of them are Companies that moved out years ago due to stupid U.S. Leadership. When you move back, there are no TARIFFS!”
The United States imposed 50 percent tariffs on a range of Canadian exports, including electronics, alcohol, dairy, paper, plastics, and furniture after trade talks collapsed on Aug. 21. Canada responded by imposing counter-tariffs on U.S. steel, aluminum, dairy, and other goods….

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News Analysis 
The U.S.–Canada trade talks broke down on Aug. 21. Although both sides hold completely different views, they agreed on two common dealbreakers: bilateral coordination on Canada’s future trade deals with third countries and how deep tariff-rate cuts should go across sectors like autos, steel, and aluminum.
A third, exempting U.S. companies from having to feature French-language content on streaming platforms, was resolved on Aug. 27 when the United States dropped the demand.
Analysts say both sides share one other thing: the China factor, which neither names but looms over both positions.
Neither the Canadian Prime Minister Carney nor U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in their own public accounts, named China as a reason for the collapse, although both cited the same three sticking points: tariff-rate cuts, trade-deal coordination, and French-language protections….

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The Trump administration announced, delayed, and then enacted 50 percent tariffs in August against an estimated $20 billion worth of goods coming from Canada, citing Section 338 as its authority for doing so.
The White House said on its website that “Canada has been ripping off the United States for decades—and President Donald J. Trump is done letting them get away with it.”
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Aug. 22, “We are walking away from a bad deal.”
Carney pledged that his nation would “match Washington’s new tariffs dollar for dollar in order to protect Canadian workers, farmers, families, and businesses.”…

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U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, hitting a historic milestone, with publicly held debt approaching 100 percent of the gross domestic product for the first time since World War II.
The U.S. Treasury borrowed most of its money from global bond markets, including individual investors, pension funds, banks, and foreign governments.
Foreign officials and private investors together held some 40 percent of outstanding U.S. Treasury securities as of mid-2025, according to Brookings.
Brookings said foreign investors’ willingness to buy and hold Treasuries has direct consequences for U.S. borrowing costs, the dollar, and financial stability.
Some believed $40 trillion isn’t just a warning about the future but an explanation for the current cost-of-living crisis. …

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Wall Street closed a volatile week mixed, caught between two competing forces: strong earnings reports led by Nvidia that reignited AI investor sentiment, and a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that reminded investors inflation remains elevated.
Nvidia on Aug. 26 posted $96 billion in revenue for the quarter ending July 26, comfortably exceeding the $92 billion analysts had forecast, and its shares gained 8.74 percent on Aug. 27 as the report rippled through the broader tech sector.
“I would not exaggerate if I said that Nvidia’s report is more important than most others. Because its chips are at the heart of AI development, the company has become a barometer for the entire AI rally,” Arthur Azizov, CEO and founder of B2BROKER Group, told The Epoch Times….

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For the first time since 2022, August’s national median rent inched up by 0.1 percent, breaking the trend of slipping rents typical of the end of the summer season, Apartment List said in its Aug. 26 National Rent Report.
The report said the data could signal that the rental market is beginning to stabilize as new construction slows and new units get absorbed.
As of August, the national median rent stood at $1,390 per month, representing the seventh consecutive increase from the previous month.
Rents declined by 0.8 percent, or $11, from August 2025. Still, this represents an uptick from April’s bottoming-out drop of 1.6 percent. According to the report, April’s data matched a record low dating back to 2017….

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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is cautious about elevated underlying inflation trends, teasing that higher interest rates could be on the table in the coming months.
In his keynote address at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Aug. 28, Warsh said headline inflation readings over the summer have come in better than expected, though underlying pressures remain a concern.
“They do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” Warsh stated in his prepared remarks.
It is the Federal Reserve’s responsibility to ensure inflation returns to 2 percent after “65 months of sustained, elevated” prices, he said.
“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” Warsh said. “Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job … our mandate … and our charge to keep.”…

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Wall Street will be tuned in to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at 10 a.m. EST on Aug. 28, when Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote address at the decades-old annual retreat as head of the central bank.
His predecessors—from Ben Bernanke to Jerome Powell—have used the yearly occasion to herald a monetary policy reset or to opine on the economy, inflation, and the labor market.
“It’s become a place where Fed chairs have delivered major policy signals,” Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times….

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The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week, ahead of the highly anticipated annual payroll revisions.
Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 203,000 for the week ending Aug. 22, according to Department of Labor Data released on Aug. 27.
Markets had forecast a reading of 208,000.
The four-week average, which strips out week-to-week volatility, ticked up above 205,000.
Weekly claims have been stuck in the historically low range of 189,000 to 203,000 throughout 2026. Any spikes logged this year were driven by short-term factors, such as the severe winter storm and school staff applying for unemployment benefits for summer vacation.
These low levels reflect the lack of layoffs across the U.S. labor market, supporting the oft-described “low fire, low hire” employment climate….

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The Federal Reserve opened its multi‑day Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming on Aug. 26, an event one market watcher said could be one of the “more meaningful” gatherings in some time.
The Kansas City Fed began hosting the annual policy conference in 1978, centering the event on agricultural issues. Several years later, under then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker, it became a major annual retreat that financial markets closely watch for policy clues.
What makes this year’s meeting of policymakers, economists, and Wall Street titans notable is that it marks Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole since taking over as head of the U.S. central bank….

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U.S. employers are preparing for rising healthcare costs next year, which could lead to reduced coverage of popular GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.  
According to an Aug. 25 Business Group on Health’s 2027 Employer Healthcare Strategy Survey, employers are predicting a median 9.2 percent hike in healthcare costs for 2027. The report indicates that the projected cost growth could be reduced to about 8 percent through changes to employee benefit plans and other cost-mitigation strategies.
Employers expect a median cost growth of 8.5 percent for 2026, with a possible reduction to 7 percent after healthcare plan alterations.
Employers surveyed reported that pharmacy costs make up about 25 percent of healthcare spending and are projected to increase by 12 percent in 2026, driven in part by the rapid growth in GLP-1 medications….

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President Donald Trump on Wednesday temporarily increased the amount of lean beef trimmings allowed into the United States under lower tariff rates, aiming to bring down ground beef prices at the shops.
The action increases the lower tariff import quota by 300,000 metric tons for the rest of 2026. It applies only to specific lean trimmings used in ground beef. The extra volume will be released in three 30-day tranches beginning Sept. 1, administered on a first-come, first-served basis.
Trump had begun to consider the move days before the announcement. On Aug. 21, he posted on Truth Social that the United States would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef with no out-of-quota tariff for 90 days….

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Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates warned Wednesday that artificial intelligence (AI) will permanently eliminate many white- and blue-collar jobs and called for taxes on AI and robots along with protections reserving certain jobs for humans.
“Many jobs will disappear forever,” Gates wrote in an essay published on his Gates Notes website. He said AI could become “the greatest equalizer ever invented” or “the worst source of injustice,” and governments are not adequately preparing for the disruption.
Gates said comparisons between AI and earlier technological changes are misleading. The shift from agricultural to office work occurred over generations and created jobs requiring human thought. AI now can replace human cognition and can operate through devices and systems already in use. …

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The U.S. economy registered modest growth in the second quarter on stronger-than-expected consumer spending and business investment, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s second estimate released on Aug. 26.
Growth in the April–June period was 1.5 percent, unchanged from the initial estimate released last month.
This was fueled by consumer spending, exports, and business investment, which helped offset the 1 percent decline in government spending.
Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending was adjusted upward to 3.4 percent as shoppers participated in seasonal events, including the FIFA World Cup and Amazon Prime Day.
Additionally, the bureau reported that personal spending rose 0.2 percent in July, from 0.3 percent in June. This also came in higher than the consensus estimate of 0.1 percent….

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Commentary
The upcoming Kansas City conference (August 27-29), being held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is expected to dominate the financial headlines this week. Essentially, the financial news media loves following the Fed and other central bankers at Jackson Hole – a scenic summer vacation spot – so I am expecting upbeat news on inflation and some other Fed talking points. Although the 2-year Treasury note remains above the Fed Funds rate, due to a poor payroll report, better-than-expected inflation news, and a decline in retail sales in July, for now, it seems the pressure is off the Fed to raise key interest rates, so I am hoping Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will talk about the deflationary benefits of AI productivity gains at Jackson Hole….

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This earnings season highlighted differing trends at some of the biggest U.S. retailers.
At Target and Ross Stores, customer traffic increased, seeking style, deals, and what one analyst called the “treasure hunt.” At TJX’s Marmaxx division, purchases were lower than expected. And at Walmart, the country’s biggest retailer, a strong headline quarter still wasn’t enough to meet Wall Street’s expectations.
The divide, which unfolded last week as the nation’s biggest retailers reported second-quarter results, is less about whether Americans are spending—they are—and more about where and on what.
Contrasting Trends
Target’s turnaround finally showed up in the numbers. Sales climbed, profit margins improved, and the company raised its outlook for the year—enough to send its shares up 7 percent for the week….

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President Donald Trump on Sunday made his first public comments since U.S.–Canada trade negotiations broke down, accusing Canada of wanting “the benefits of being a State, without being one” and of imposing “massive amounts of Tariffs” on American farmers for years.
The United States imposed 50 percent tariffs Aug. 21 on some Canadian imports after last-minute negotiations between the two countries failed to produce an agreement.
The tariffs had been scheduled to take effect Aug. 19, but Trump delayed them for three days while negotiations continued.
The proposed deal would have reduced U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber. It also included cooperation on aerospace supply chains, critical minerals, forced-labor enforcement, and the formal launch of negotiations over the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement. …

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Saturday that retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods will take effect on Sept. 8.
“Let me be clear: We take this step reluctantly, reluctantly because we recognize that some of these measures will raise costs and reduce choice for Canadians,” Carney said during a press conference on Aug. 22.
The retaliatory tariffs were announced less than 24 hours after the United States imposed 50 percent tariffs on certain goods made in Canada, following the failure to reach a trade deal.
Carney said that by “rejecting a bad deal,” he remains confident that this path forward is in the “best interest of Canada.” …

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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Aug. 21 that new tariffs on Canadian imports will take effect as the two nations have failed to reach a trade deal.
“Tonight, Canada declined to finalize the trade deal under the terms agreed earlier this week,” Greer said in a statement.
“Despite the U.S. offer to Canada to receive the best treatment of any major exporter to our market, new demands and walk-backs of other commitments by Canada have upended the careful balance reached in the past days,” he added.
The new 50 percent tariffs on Canadian imports took effect on Aug. 22 at 12:01 a.m. ET. …

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U.S. stocks ended Friday in the green but posted a weekly loss as rising bond yields weighed on the markets, with both the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year Treasury note trading at multi-year highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,277 on Friday, down 0.85 percent for the week. The S&P 500 dipped 1.43 percent to finish the week at 7,674. The Nasdaq fared the worst, falling 2.05 percent, while the small-cap Russell 2000 finished 1.65 percent lower. The CBOE Volatility Index rose 6.18 percent to settle at 15.13—a sign that fear is returning to the market.
Bond yields have been under upward pressure from elevated inflation, rising government deficits, and a flurry of corporate debt issuance by tech companies building out AI infrastructure….

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Business activity kicked into high gear this month, accelerating at its fastest pace in more than four years, S&P Global stated on Aug. 21.
August’s S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index—a monthly survey that combines factory output and services business activity—rose to 56, from 54.5 in July.
This exceeded expectations and marked the strongest expansion since April 2022.
“US business is booming,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement attached to the report.
But while manufacturing output continued to expand, momentum shifted to the services sector, which registered its strongest activity since December 2024….

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For a typical U.S. household, it can take decades to save for a home and reach the point where buying becomes cheaper than renting, with the timeline stretching into retirement in some expensive markets, according to an Aug. 20 Zillow report.
Zillow calculated the number of years that a household saving 10 percent of the area’s median income would need to save for a 20 percent down payment on either a typical single-family or starter home. The break-even period was when the cumulative cost of owning a home fell below the cost of renting a similar home.  
Nationally, Zillow found that after about 15 years, the average household can reach the point where purchasing a home becomes financially advantageous compared with renting for the same amount of time. This includes about 8.5 years of saving for the down payment and another 6.2 years to break even on the purchase….

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The six-month growth rate for a top economic indicator has turned positive for the first time in more than four years.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index—also known as the LEI—rose 0.2 percent to 99.5 in July, from an upwardly revised 0.1 percent decline in June. This represented the fourth increase in six months, lifting the six-month growth rate to positive territory.
Typically used as a recession indicator, the LEI is a basket of forward-looking indicators, including building permits, consumer expectations, stock prices, and the yield curve.
“Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index,” Justyna Zabinska-LaMonica, senior manager at The Conference Board, said in an Aug. 20 statement….

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The number of Americans submitting applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week for the first time in a month, indicating ongoing labor market stability, according to new government data.
Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 206,000 for the week ending August 15, the Department of Labor said in an Aug. 20 statement. The previous week’s reading was revised upward to 212,000. Economists had penciled in a reading of 210,000.
Despite spikes this year due to seasonal factors—extreme weather and summer school vacations, for example—the number of people claiming jobless benefits remains in the historically low range of 189,000 to 230,000. Initial claims for state jobless benefits dropped last month to the lowest level since September 1969….

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Australia’s national debt briefly hit the $1 trillion mark for the first time in history on Aug. 20 following the issuance of a new batch of bonds.
On Aug. 14, records from the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) showed a baseline gross debt of $983.7 billion.
This total climbed after the government issued $4.1 billion of bonds for bidding on Aug. 20 between 10:15 a.m. and 11 a.m.
On top of this, the office issued $13 billion in new treasury bonds via a bank-managed syndication on Aug. 18.
Combined, this takes the total debt to about $1.008 trillion.
However, Australia’s debt will dip back below the $1 trillion mark on Aug. 21 when $6 billion of notes mature, reducing total debt to $994.8 billion ahead of the AOFM’s weekly website update. …

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The national debt crossed a historic milestone of $40 trillion this week.
It has been about three months since the federal government’s debt hit $39 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s debt-to-the-penny dashboard.
Debt held by the public is around $32.2 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings are close to $7.8 trillion.
Hitting this milestone comes firmly ahead of the Congressional Budget Office’s baseline estimate of 2027.
Looking ahead, using the nonpartisan budget watchdog’s 7 percent growth rate scenario, the national debt could barrel toward the $50 trillion mark by 2030.
While the U.S. government is collecting a record $5 trillion in revenue (nominally), it is spending approximately $7 trillion, resulting in annual budget deficits of $2 trillion. …

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Many Federal Reserve officials have agreed that raising interest rates might be necessary if inflation does not cool, according to minutes released on Aug. 19 from the most recent meeting.
The Fed voted 9–3 on July 29 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate—a key policy rate that influences borrowing costs for businesses and consumers—unchanged in the current target range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent.
Some participants believe that current financial conditions might not be restrictive enough to support a return to the institution’s 2 percent inflation target.
“Most participants anticipated that inflation would step down over the rest of the year as the effects of tariffs and earlier energy price increases wane, but many participants noted the possibility that inflation might be more persistently elevated,” according to the meeting summary….

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Yields on long-term U.S. bonds fell midweek after the Treasury Department said it would expand long-end debt buybacks amid climbing rates.
From Sept. 9, the Treasury will double the size of its government debt repurchases to $4 billion, focusing its buyback operations on 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year bonds.
A Treasury buyback is when the federal government purchases its own bonds before they mature, retiring older securities and replacing them with new issuance.
Increasing buyback operation sizes indicate the Treasury’s commitment to offer more liquidity support amid consistent and robust demand from investors, “as evidenced by the significant volume of high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations,” the department said in an Aug. 19 statement….

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WASHINGTON—U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Aug. 18 that he would delay an additional 50 percent tariff on certain Canadian goods following last-minute talks between the two countries. The tariffs were originally set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Aug. 19.
Trump announced on Truth Social that the two countries have reached a deal.
“I have paused the 50% Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!” he wrote.
Trump added that the Keystone XL pipeline “may be awoken from the grave” as part of the deal….

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Commentary
Earnings remain strong, but perhaps the stock market has become a bit overbought in the near term, so don’t be surprised if it backs and fills a bit. We still have many great stocks announcing earnings and revenues, like last Tuesday’s report from Super Micro Computer (SMCI), whose latest quarterly revenue surged 96.5% to $11.1 billion compared with $5.7 billion in the same quarter in 2025. The analyst community expected revenues of $11.2 billion and operating earnings of $1.59 per share, so Super Micro Computer posted a slight revenue miss and a positive (7%) earnings surprise. Looking forward, the company raised its quarterly revenue guidance to a range of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, which is substantially higher than analysts’ consensus estimate of $11.9 billion….

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The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is trading at levels last seen 19 years ago, near the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis.
The 30-year Treasury yield was trading at 5.32 percent as of 3:15 a.m. on Aug. 18. The last time the rate was at this level was in June 2007. The recent spike in Treasury rates comes as a 60-day negotiating window tied to a ceasefire framework between the United States and Iran ended this week, without any agreement to end the war or fully reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, creating uncertainty among investors.
Recent data on jobs and inflation have also not been promising. The U.S. job market unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, diverging considerably from consensus estimates of 80,000 new job additions. While the 12-month inflation rate fell slightly from 3.5 percent in June to 3.4 percent in July, it still remains high compared with the 2.4 percent rate in February before the U.S.–Iran war broke out….

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Typical families in the United States spend half of their income on housing and childcare, according to a report released on Aug. 17 from the real estate platform Redfin.
Based on data from Redfin and childcare marketplace Winnie, the typical working family purchasing a home today spends 52 percent of their annual income on housing and childcare combined.
While these costs can decrease as children enroll in public pre-K or kindergarten, researchers say that where a family resides can significantly influence these costs.
Among the 100 most populous U.S. metros, working families residing in Little Rock, Arkansas, would spend less than 40 percent—the least in the country….

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The United States on Thursday fully restarted government activities throughout Mexico’s western state of Michoacan, ending a short suspension of avocado inspections that had raised concerns about shipments to American markets.
Michoacan ranks as Mexico’s top avocado-producing region and a critical source for U.S. buyers. The U.S. government will ‌resume activities after pausing operations earlier this month over security risks. That move threatened to interrupt the flow of the fruit from the area often called the country’s avocado hub.
U.S. Ambassador Ron Johnson thanked Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum for steps taken to strengthen security on the ground….

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The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh record high this week, powered by new data showing inflation is cooling—developments that, together with the previous week’s weak jobs report, further raise the odds the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at its next meeting.
Aiding the positive market sentiment for equities was a wave of strong earnings from AI-infrastructure companies that added to investor interest in stocks.
By Friday’s market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 53,732, down 0.56 percent for the week. The S&P 500 finished the week up 0.36 percent at 7,785 after touching its record high on Thursday. The Nasdaq edged up 0.14 percent, while the small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 1.12 percent….

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The United States will add a 100 percent tariff on heavier imported drones, docking stations, and equipment that can be used as weapons or for surveillance by foreign enemies, President Donald Trump announced on Aug. 13.
Trump signed a proclamation imposing the ad valorem tariff on drones weighing more than 55 pounds and units that have thermal imaging capabilities, including some from U.S. allies.
“The actions in this proclamation will, among other things, encourage increased domestic production of [drones] and [drone] components and reduced reliance on foreign sources and foreign supply chains,” Trump stated in the proclamation.
A tariff of 25 percent was added to drones weighing less than 55 pounds….

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After Deutsche Bank announced on Aug. 10 it was authorized by the People’s Bank of China—China’s central bank—to be an RMB clearing bank in Frankfurt, making it the first in Europe, analysts warned this could give the Chinese communist regime a way into the European-U.S. financial system, raising questions for the global financial system.
Other major European banks could also follow for economic reasons despite the European Union’s de-risking policy from China, as the communist regime pushes for the yuan to go global.
Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, is the world’s largest euro clearing bank and classified as a Global Systemically Important Bank by the Financial Stability Board….

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The U.S. Court of International Trade on Aug. 13 upheld the Trump administration’s authority to end the de minimis exemption that allowed Americans to avoid paying duty on packages worth $800 or less.
The court held in a new order that President Donald Trump had legal authority to close the exemption, which he previously said was a legal loophole that benefited foreign vendors and criminals. A company had sued over the administration’s policy, claiming the president didn’t have the power to end the exemption.
Trump celebrated the court victory in a Truth Social post.
The exemption is “one of the most DESPICABLE loopholes in American trade policy” that has been exploited by “Fentanyl Traffickers, Counterfeiters, and other Criminals shipping dangerous and illegal products into America,” he said….

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The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits remained stable at the start of August, pointing to a stable national labor market.
Initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ending Aug. 8, according to new data released by the Department of Labor on Aug. 13. Economists had projected a reading of 202,000.
The four-week average, which strips out week-to-week volatility, was unchanged at 199,000.
Claims recently fell to their lowest level since 1969 for the second time this year, and they have ranged between 189,0000 to 230,000 this year.
A plethora of employment indicators suggest that labor conditions are stable, despite last month’s surprise job loss….

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For the fourth consecutive year, the U.S. housing market’s top 10 hottest ZIP codes for 2026 are all located in the Northeast and Midwest, where limited homebuilding has contributed to tight inventory, according to an Aug. 10 Realtor.com report.
The rankings measure buyer demand by unique views and how quickly listings sell.
Overall, the report says, listings in the top 10 ZIP codes—which span Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan—received up to 5.3 times as many views and sold substantially faster than the national average, by as many as 42 days. According to a July Realtor.com report, the national median time on market was 53 days in June. …

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Falling energy prices helped inflation pressures ease last month, new government data released on August 12 show.
July’s U.S. annual inflation rate slowed to 3.4 percent, from 3.5 percent in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Excluding the volatile energy and food categories, the 12-month core inflation rate also eased to 2.5 percent, from 2.6 percent.
Both readings were in line with economists’ expectations.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
…

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Many of today’s experienced employees in the United States may be bucking the traditional adage of “climbing the corporate ladder” to career success, as a recent report found that an unusually large number of experienced workers are seeking entry-level positions.
Some experienced workers are willing to take tens of thousands of dollars in pay cuts to move down the career ladder, according to recruiting professionals.
Meanwhile, younger workers face competition on two fronts: from their peers and from more experienced candidates.      
Nearly Half Seek Lower-Level Jobs
As of May, nearly 50 percent of job seekers with 10 or more years of experience sought entry-level roles, while only 12 percent of applications from this group were for senior-level jobs, according to a July 23 analysis by Indeed Hiring Lab….

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Commentary
Through last Friday, 88% of the S&P 500 companies have announced second-quarter results. According to FactSet Earnings Insight, an astounding 86% of them have reported positive earnings-per-share surprises, and 76% reported positive revenue surprises. For the full quarter so far, the earnings growth rate (blended, year-over-year) is up by an astounding +50.4%. This is also the 12th quarter in a row in which earnings are exceeding sales growth, indicating an expansion in profit margins, and this is why stocks are rallying.
Contrary to August’s dismal historical record, this August could deliver a big rebound, due to: (1) the rapid growth rate of quarterly earnings, (2) the exhaustion of mean reversion algorithms, (3) the implosion of “Situational Awareness,” and (4) recognition that unscrupulous short sellers are spreading false narratives….

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Total U.S. household debt declined in the second quarter for the first time in six years, according to new data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Aug. 11.
Red ink has flooded households across the country since 2013, but consumers could be more cautious about their borrowing in the face of stubborn inflation.
Collectively, in the second quarter, household debt fell by $13 billion from the previous quarter to $18.77 trillion, the New York Fed reported.
“The last time that happened was exactly six years ago, early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Aside from that, the last quarter-over-quarter decline was way back in 2014,” Ted Rossman, principal consumer finance analyst at Money Management International, told The Epoch Times in a statement….

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The second-quarter earnings season for S&P 500 companies is almost finished, and a new analysis shows that most firms have outperformed market expectations.
Wall Street has brushed aside a string of headwinds this year—from the war in Iran to renewed price pressures—and kept climbing. Despite a few bumps along the way, the stock market sits at or near record highs, and recent numbers suggest it is not entirely driven by artificial intelligence.
As of Aug. 7, 88 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings. Of these firms, 86 percent have beaten market expectations, according to FactSet data.
This is above the five- and 10-year averages of 78 percent and 76 percent, respectively….

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There were 666 commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings made in the United States in July, a 27 percent drop from a year ago, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI).
Chapter 11 bankruptcy allows a business to reorganize its debts so it can continue operating and eventually become solvent. In addition to a decline in Chapter 11 filings, overall commercial bankruptcy filings declined in July, falling by 8 percent year over year, ABI said in an Aug. 6 statement.
The decline in July’s commercial filings followed improved economic conditions in June. The 12-month inflation rate declined in June from the previous month after surging for three consecutive months….

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Wall Street ended the week at record highs, as a surprisingly weak jobs report gave investors another reason to bet against a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 54,036, up 2.96 percent for the week. The S&P 500 added 3.38 percent to close at 7,757. The Nasdaq was the week’s standout, soaring 5.19 percent, while the small-cap Russell 2000 finished 3.52 percent higher. The CBOE Volatility Index, meanwhile, dipped 6.95 percent to settle at 14.87—a sign that fear is draining out of the market just as fast as the rally is building in.
The catalyst came on Friday morning, when the July labor market report showed the United States unexpectedly lost 23,000 nonfarm jobs, on top of a downwardly revised 20,000 gain in June—far from the 80,000 increase economists had forecast….

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President Donald Trump has said gasoline prices could rise again if the United States carries out another military strike against Iran, while expressing confidence that Tehran wants a deal to avert further attacks—and that pump prices are most likely poised to fall sharply.
Trump made the remarks in an interview with Punchbowl News after being asked about comments he made during an Aug. 5 rally in Las Vegas, where he predicted that easing tensions with Iran would drive down energy costs, while also hinting at the possibility of a short-lived price spike.
“As soon as this situation ends with Iran, oil is going to go down to the floor, gasoline’s going to go down,” Trump told rally-goers….

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The U.S. labor market stalled last month as the economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, new Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
Economists had projected a gain of about 80,000 positions.
July’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, coming in below expectations.
This is a developing story. Please check back for further updates.
…

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WASHINGTON—President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Aug. 6 establishing a price floor and tariffs on polysilicon and related products to protect U.S. companies from increasing competition from China in artificial intelligence and energy.
Polysilicon (polycrystalline silicon), a highly purified form of silicon, serves as a critical raw material for both semiconductors and solar manufacturing.
“We’re bringing the chips back into the United States in a very big way,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office following the signing of the executive order.
In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched a Section 232 national security investigation into imports of polysilicon and its derivatives. The investigation aimed to determine whether the imports of these goods pose a threat to U.S. national security….

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A new poll finds Democrats are now slightly ahead of Republicans on the economy, their first edge in almost ten years.
The Reuters–Ipsos poll, released on Aug. 3, shows 37 percent of U.S. voters prefer Democrats’ handling of the economy, edging out the 36 percent who favor Republicans on the issue. Another 27 percent remain unsure.
Three months ahead of the midterm elections, lawmakers said this could spell trouble for the GOP.
“It’s always the economy. You win when it’s good, and you lose when it’s not. It’s just the way this world works,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is not seeking reelection this year, told The Epoch Times….

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Private-sector hiring slowed in July, with most of the employment gains coming from education and health services, according to new data from payroll processor ADP.
Excluding government, employment grew by 44,000, sharply below June’s downwardly revised 95,000. The figures also fell short of the consensus estimate of 70,000.
Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said in an Aug. 5 statement that “typical hiring patterns … are changing as employers react to shifting macro-economic conditions.”
All of the gains occurred in the services sector, adding 47,000 positions. Payrolls among goods-producing firms declined by 3,000.
A sizable share of last month’s nonfarm job growth came from small businesses (23,000). This was followed by large companies (13,000) and mid-sized companies (8,000)….

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Investors are getting increasingly nervous about the AI-related investment boom that is driving America’s GDP growth, sparking heightened volatility in both equity and debt markets.
Capital expenditures on AI infrastructure—software, data centers, power facilities, and computer equipment—escalated from $235 billion in 2024 to more than $700 billion projected in 2026. And analysts say that this cash outlay—already the largest investment splurge in America’s history—could be just the early stages of the investment cycle with much more to come.
Capital expenditures on AI could reach between $4 trillion and $8 trillion over the next five years, according to a May report from Goldman Sachs. JP Morgan likewise projects that AI investments will exceed $5 trillion by 2030….

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Commentary
Mean reversion algorithmic trading resumed last week on the perception that Asia would take the AI lead from the U.S. (This is a false narrative, since we are still in the early stages of the AI build-out.) For evidence of this mean reversion, here is a review of the trading trends in the first half of July. This Bespoke Investment Group chart illustrates exactly how these mean reversion algorithms impacted the Russell 1000:
This chart illustrates exactly how these mean reversion algorithms impacted the Russell 1000. (Source: Bespoke Investment Group)Currently, AI growth is constrained by memory and computing restrictions, as the backlog to build more data centers is still growing. OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok, and other AI developers have hit a wall, for now….

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The number of job openings eased below 7.4 million for the first time since March as demand for labor cooled heading into the summer, new government data show.
June’s job vacancies declined by 178,000 to 7.36 million, from a downwardly revised 7.54 million in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Aug. 4.
Economists had projected a reading of 7.4 million.
Heading into this week’s nonfarm payrolls report for July, various indicators suggest employment conditions remain stable, from hiring to layoffs.
New job openings were largely concentrated in two sectors: transportation, warehousing, and utilities (97,000) and the federal government (39,000).
Vacancies declined in wholesale trade (negative 74,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (negative 55,000), and mining and logging (negative 9,000)….

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The number of job openings eased below 7.4 million for the first time since March as demand for labor cooled heading into the summer, new government data show.
June’s job vacancies declined by 178,000 to 7.36 million, from a downwardly revised 7.54 million in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Aug. 4.
Economists had projected a reading of 7.4 million.
Heading into this week’s nonfarm payrolls report for July, various indicators suggest employment conditions remain stable, from hiring to layoffs.
New job openings were largely concentrated in two sectors: transportation, warehousing, and utilities (97,000) and the federal government (39,000).
Vacancies declined in wholesale trade (negative 74,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (negative 55,000), and mining and logging (negative 9,000)….

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The U.S. manufacturing industry registered its seventh consecutive monthly expansion in July, with factory activity at its highest level in more than four years.
Last month’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 55.6, from 53.3 in June, according to new data from the Institute for Supply Management’s widely watched monthly survey.
Economists had forecast a reading of 54.
This was the highest level since May 2022, highlighting the sector’s strength this year.
Factory activity has benefited from artificial intelligence-related investments and businesses front-loading orders to avoid potential supply chain disruptions and higher war-driven costs. Low business inventories also facilitated companies to replenish stockpiles….

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Amazon has received roughly $600 million in refunds for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in the second quarter of 2026, and it has plans to distribute them to some of its customers.
“We have identified a limited set of circumstances where we can trace that we pass specific import charges onto customers. And when we receive those refunds, we will proactively contact affected customers and automatically issue refunds to them,” Amazon Chief Financial Officer Brian T. Olsavsky said during a June 30 earnings call.
“[Otherwise], we’ll utilize refunds, continue to invest in low prices for customers.”
The refund amount is limited for various reasons. For one, Amazon engaged in significant forward buying and prepositioned its inventory to avoid tariffs, according to Olsavsky. …

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Japan and the United States announced on Aug. 2 that they coordinated purchases of the yen on July 31 to curb the currency’s volatility on the currency market.
In a statement, Japan’s Finance Ministry said it coordinated with the U.S. Treasury Department to address “excessive volatility and disorderly movements of the yen” in recent months.
The ministry said it remains ​in close communication with its U.S. counterparts and “will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention.”
President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Aug. 2 that the coordination reflected the close relations between the two countries, calling it “a signal of friendship.”…

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Friday that California’s minimum wage would increase to $17.40 an hour beginning in January 2027.
At the same time, Newsom criticized the Trump administration and Republicans over the national minimum wage rate, which has been set at $7.25 an hour since 2009.
Congress has not voted to increase the federal minimum wage since July 2009, although several bills have been introduced. One percent of the workers in the country earn the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“For years, Donald Trump and Republicans have blocked efforts to raise the federal minimum wage while handing tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations,” Newsom said, according to a press release. …

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The Senate is preparing to vote on a bipartisan sanctions bill championed by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) after voting overwhelmingly to advance it this week.
The Senate passed a procedural measure on the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 in an 86-to-12 vote on July 28. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) indicated last week that the Senate could approve the sanctions bill before the start of its recess on Aug. 7.
Originally introduced by Graham, the bill aims to stop Russia from using oil and gas sales to continue waging its war against Ukraine and to extend economic sanctions on Iran. A revised version of the bill was reintroduced in the Senate earlier this month….

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Better-than-expected earnings reports from Microsoft and Amazon during the later part of the trading week helped shift the U.S. equity market away from what had looked like another leg of the sell-off cycle that had rattled global markets for a couple of weeks: New York sold off, Seoul sold off harder, and the renewed concerns spilled back into U.S. markets.
The Dow closed at 52,485 on July 31, up 1.04 percent for the week. The S&P 500 rose 1.05 percent to close at 7,489. The Nasdaq, which had been deep in negative territory as recently as the afternoon of July 29, ended the week up 1.59 percent. The small-cap Russell 2000 finished the week little changed, up 0.16 percent, while the CBOE Volatility Index plunged 13.94 percent to settle at 15.99—a sign that the panic has eased. …

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Inflated costs caused by corruption in government infrastructure programs could significantly increase the cost of building a home, a parliamentary committee has been told. 
During a parliamentary inquiry into productivity, Geoffrey Watson SC, who investigated corruption across multiple branches of the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU), said the impact will likely be felt well beyond the loss of taxpayer funds.
In February 2026, Watson’s Rotting from the Top report (pdf) was publicly released, detailing criminal infiltration and governance failures within the Victorian branch of the CFMEU, which was heavily involved in the state’s Big Build program. …

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The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits remained at historically low levels last week, as layoffs remain subdued.
Initial jobless claims edged higher by 9,000 to 197,000 for the week ending July 25, according to data released by the Department of Labor on July 30.
Last week’s figure—revised slightly higher to 188,000—was the lowest since early 1969.
The four-week average, which strips out week-to-week volatility, fell to a more than two-month low of 202,750.
Although hiring momentum has stalled in recent weeks, employment conditions remain in the oft-described “low fire, low hire” state.
Job growth softened in June, as the economy added just 57,000 jobs, well below the three-month average of 164,000….

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The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation cooled sharply in June, reflecting the decline in global energy prices, new government data show.
June’s annual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index eased to 3.7 percent, from 4.1 percent in May, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis figures published on July 30. This matched the market estimate.
From May to June, PCE inflation fell 0.1 percent, from an upwardly revised 0.5 percent.
The latest inflation numbers are consistent with other reports spotlighting a deceleration in price pressures.
Prices for goods fell 0.6 percent, driven primarily by lower costs for gasoline and other energy-related items.
Services inflation was little changed, edging up 0.1 percent due to higher healthcare and transportation costs….

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Larger tax refunds and the FIFA World Cup could not provide enough support for the U.S. economy as GDP growth came in below expectations for the second quarter, new government figures reveal.
The U.S. economy expanded 1.5 percent during the April–June period, down from the 2.1 percent gain in the first three months of 2026, according to data released on July 30 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Economists had projected growth of 2.1 percent.
Consumer spending was the largest driver of second-quarter growth, surging 3.2 percent—up from 0.5 percent in the January–March period.
Gross private domestic investment also contributed sizably to last quarter’s expansion, climbing 3 percent. Within this category, business investment advanced more than 8 percent, reflecting the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout….

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CHICAGO–There would be less need for “guardrail” regulations that enrich lawyers and aggravate state-federal disputes if artificial intelligence developers “steered” large language models into being “intrinsically good,” according to 2024 physics Nobel Prize laureate Geoffrey Hinton.
“You can model good behavior,” he said during a July 28 presentation at the National Conference of State Legislatures’ (NCSL) 51st Annual Summit. “It’s the same with a child.”
AI products, such as chatbots, “ought to be trained as agents that exhibit good behavior,” he said.
California’s 2024 House Bill 1047 was a first attempt with “tiny little teeth” to tentatively require such a standard, he said, but Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed it. …

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Commentary
I spent most of last week at the Las Vegas Money Show, where I caught up with our favorite economist, Ed Yardeni, who pointed out in his Wednesday morning briefing that the “bond vigilantes” (a term Ed created in the 1980s) are skeptical of new British Prime Minister Andrew Burnham’s plans. (The role of bond vigilantes, Ed has said, is to protest inflationary policies by selling bonds, pushing yields higher.)
Burnham is Britain’s seventh Prime Minister since the Brexit vote a decade ago (in June 2016), including five in the last four years. I wish Prime Minister Burnham well, but the reason Britain gets a new Prime Minister almost every year is due to the bond vigilantes squelching their government spending proposals. In fact, Burnham told ITV Britain was deep “in hock” after politicians lost control of public finances in various key sectors – like energy, water, and housing. Since Britain has the highest borrowing costs in the G7 and has lost many affluent households, the bond vigilantes are ready to pounce on any misstep Burnham makes….

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CHICAGO–State lawmakers and local governments responding to the national backlash against data centers should proceed cautiously before imposing moratoriums, a panel of legislators, construction trade representatives, and utility executives warned during the first day of the July 27–29 National Conference of State Legislatures’ (NCSL) 51st annual summit.
“Data centers are ubiquitous to everything we do in life, like, period–full stop. They are not going away,” Washington state Rep. April Berg said. “There’s no world that we’re going to live in, that or our kids are going to live in, or our grandkids are going to live in, that will not include data centers.”…

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Cracks in Big Tech’s artificial intelligence-fueled spending binge could be forming across stocks and bonds.
Wall Street was displeased last week when Alphabet and Tesla Motors raised their forecasts for capital expenditure—known as capex—for the rest of the year.
While market watchers await spending updates from other AI hyperscalers as they release their latest earnings reports over the coming weeks, total capex in 2026 is expected to reach up to $1 trillion.
A year ago, investors cheered these ambitious investments. Under current market conditions, traders are now more cautious as the leading tech giants see their free cash flows turn negative and rely on debt and stock sales to fund the AI infrastructure buildout….

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Wall Street’s largest banks reported some of their strongest earnings on record, but much of the growth came from businesses outside their traditional consumer lending operations.
Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs all beat expectations for the second quarter, capitalizing on a surge in trading, dealmaking, and asset management fees. Traditional banking—checking accounts, mortgages, auto loans—also grew, but modestly. The real fireworks came from the parts of the business that thrive and dive with the stock market.
With the results released and stock markets reacting, analysts are assessing the sustainability of the current trends….

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While America’s rental market remained relatively favorable to renters, apartment availability may tighten in the coming months as the wave of multi-unit-home construction is receding, according to a July 23 report from Zillow.
Nationwide, the median rent inched up 2.2 percent to $1,965 year over year in June, the report said.
Rent growth strengthened over the past three months, with April, May, and June posting stronger month-over-month gains than the same period in 2025. 
At the same time, 39.7 percent of listings on Zillow offered a concession for apartment seekers, up from 35.2 percent a year ago.
The report indicates new construction, particularly in southern and western regions, has added a wealth of multifamily inventory over the past few years, giving renters more choices on where to live….

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Two small businesses have filed a lawsuit to block new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on dozens of trading partners.
The lawsuit, filed on July 24, came just hours after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 12.5 percent on 60 trading partners over their alleged failure to prevent imports made with forced labor.
The latest tariffs, implemented by the administration under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, took effect as temporary 10 percent global levies were due to expire.
The Liberty Justice Center, which previously secured a Supreme Court ruling against the president’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), filed the lawsuit on behalf of Burlap and Barrel, a New York-based spice retailer, and Collective Horology, a California-based watch retailer….

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Oil prices dropped 5 percent on Monday after the United States and Iran paused attacks for a second straight day following weeks of strikes that had pushed Brent crude prices to over $100 per barrel.
Brent crude futures declined 5.05 percent to $91.89 a barrel by 8:09 p.m. ET on Sunday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $84.64 a barrel—down 5.23 percent.
The decline came after the two nations agreed to pause hostilities to negotiate a deal. An Iranian army spokesperson told state television on July 26 that Tehran had halted attacks on the same nights the U.S military stopped their strikes.
White House communications director Steven Cheung said on July 26 that President Donald Trump had ordered to pause attacks on Iran over the weekend but will “retain all options if Iran continues terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against allies.”…

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Stealers Wheel’s 1973 hit “Stuck in the Middle with You” could well become the theme song for today’s middle-income, first-time home buyers who don’t qualify for affordable housing programs yet cannot afford market-rate homes.
The household income required to purchase a starter home, currently priced under $350,000 in the United States, has surged more than 80 percent to $78,000 from $43,000 in 2019, according to a July 20 report from Realtor.com.
By contrast, the median household income was $83,730 in 2024, representing an increase of under 22 percent from $68,703 in 2019, according to the latest Census Bureau estimates.
This gap in growth between home prices and household incomes has made it increasingly difficult for even middle-income households to own a home, real estate professionals, economists, and recent research say….

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Stock markets closed another volatile week in the red, as investor sentiment soured on the very theme that has pushed markets to record highs: artificial intelligence (AI).
Attention shifted from earnings and revenue beats to the soaring cost of AI capital spending, casting doubts about future free cash flow—what analysts often call the “milk of Wall Street,” since it ultimately funds the dividends and buybacks that drive equity prices.
Higher oil prices and bond yields added pressure to the broader market.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.38 percent lower, closing at 51,947. The S&P 500 dropped 0.61 percent to 7,411, near its weekly low touched on July 24. The Nasdaq Composite fared far worse, down 2.13 percent. The Russell 2000 fell 1 percent. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index closed the week at 18.58, down 1 percent….

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President Donald Trump says his administration will open a formal investigation into the European Union’s trade practices, threatening new tariffs over billions of dollars in fines leveled against U.S. tech companies.
In a Truth Social post on Friday, Trump said the investigation would begin “immediately” under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to protect U.S. businesses against unfair trade practices with tariffs and sanctions.
He accused the EU of “robbing” U.S. companies and, in turn, American taxpayers.
“The European Union is at it again and, as usual, taking direct aim at GREAT American Companies!” Trump wrote, referring to European enforcement actions over recent years against Google, Apple, Meta, and Amazon….

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While nearly one in four homes across the United States are located in areas susceptible to severe weather conditions, many homebuyers are still seeking out properties in these high-risk regions, a July Realtor.com report found.
The organization’s data show that 23.1 percent of America’s homes—with an estimated $11.2 trillion in value—are currently situated in areas prone to natural disasters.
The report indicates that, despite the likelihood of flooding, wildfires, or extreme windstorms in some areas, homebuyer demand remains strong, often driven by lower list prices than in nearby lower-risk areas.
“Price is still the biggest motivator for a lot of home shoppers, even in places where climate risk is well known,” Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu said in the report….

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Eurozone business activity rose for the first time in 4 months, according to an S&P Global survey released on Friday.
The eurozone private sector returned to growth in July, it said, adding that data from its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) had risen from 50.0 to 51.9 this month.
A PMI below 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is in contraction.
S&P Global said that despite inflationary pressures easing (but remaining pronounced), a “higher output reflected a renewed increase in new orders, with staffing levels also up accordingly.”
Economies in France and Germany have been hit amid the war in the Middle East….

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Countries around the world have pushed back after the United States imposed new tariffs of between 10 percent and 12.5 percent on imports from more than 60 trading partners, citing concerns that they had failed to prevent goods made with forced labor from entering U.S. supply chains.
The tariffs took effect on July 24 after temporary 10 percent global tariffs expired at midnight. The Trump administration said the new measures rely on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which it is using to address forced labor concerns.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas challenged the decision.
“You can’t say that for the European Union,” Kallas said on July 24 during ASEAN meetings in Manila. “If you compare our labor laws to the ones of the United States, I mean, we have paid vacations, we have very good labor conditions for our employees, so it’s not really grounded.”…

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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday that he wants interim trade arrangements with Canada and Mexico decided upon before the calendar turns, as rewriting the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) extends into next year.
“I would love to have by the end of the year at least some arrangements—one with Canada, one with Mexico,” Greer said.
The statement represented the clearest signal yet that a clean renewal of the six-year-old pact is unlikely to happen in 2026. Greer underscored that issues such as tighter rules of origin for automobiles and stronger labor and environmental rules would require more time, “including with Congress in the following year.”…

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The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on Thursday announced the country-by-country and first-come, first-served allocations for tariff-rate quotas for imported raw cane sugar, refined sugar, and sugar-containing products in fiscal year 2027.
The quotas are part of long-standing U.S. agreements made under a World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement.
The quotas fill the period from Oct. 1, 2026, through Sept. 30, 2027. They allow foreign suppliers to ship set volumes of sugar into the United States at lower duty rates. Any shipments above those volumes, however, are required to pay higher tariffs.
On July 14, the Agriculture Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service established the in-quota quantity for raw cane sugar at 1,117,195 metric tons raw value, matching the minimum the United States agreed to allocate as part of WTO rules. USTR allocated 1,061,202 metric tons of that total among 39 countries and territories, with the remaining 55,993 metric tons to be assigned ahead of the Oct. 1 deadline, when raw cane, refined including specialty, and sugar-containing products may begin entering under the new quotas….

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The United States will impose new tariffs ranging between rates of 10 percent and 12.5 percent on more than 60 trading partners beginning on July 24, the Trump administration announced on July 23. It comes as temporary 10 percent global levies are due to expire at midnight.
The administration alleges that the 60 affected partners—which include the European Union—have failed to enforce bans on forced labor.
It’s the first major push by the White House to impose across-the-board tariff duties internationally since the Supreme Court ruled in February that President Donald Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed previous global tariffs.
Trump indicated after the decision that his administration would explore alternative routes to imposing international tariffs. …

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Almost one in four Americans with employer-sponsored health insurance is staying in a job that they would otherwise leave out of fear of losing coverage, a new survey suggests.
The findings, released July 21 by the West Health-Gallup Center on Healthcare in America, show that 24 percent of Americans who rely primarily on employer-sponsored insurance—equivalent to about 23 million adults—feel trapped in their current jobs by concerns over health coverage. That represents an increase of 8 percentage points from 2021.
The phenomenon, which the analysts called “job lock,” was especially prevalent among employees facing financial pressure from medical expenses.
Among respondents with personal or household medical debt, 44 percent said they were staying in an unwanted job to preserve their health insurance, compared with 21 percent of those without medical debt, according to Gallup. The figure rose to 53 percent among workers who said healthcare costs caused them “a lot of stress” in their daily lives….

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The number of businesses going into administration or voluntary liquidation remained at near record levels, according to figures from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).
In the 2025–26 financial year, 14,011 companies entered administration, slightly down from a peak of 14,722 in 2024–25.
However, the figures have yet to drop to anywhere near pandemic levels when 4,912 businesses became insolvent in 2021-22.
Since then, there’s been a year-on-year increase in the number of businesses struggling to stay afloat.
Construction the Top Industry
Construction continued to shoulder the brunt of the administrations with 3,472 companies waving the red flag, a 3.4 percent decrease from the previous financial year. …

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President Donald Trump said on July 21 that he will impose a 100 percent tariff on all generic drugs starting August 2028 in a bid to encourage pharmaceutical companies to shift their production to the United States for national security reasons.
Trump said generic drugs brought into the United States would face no tariffs for the first two years from August 2026, before a 100 percent tariff takes effect in 2028.
The tariff would then rise to 200 percent a year later.
“This is done in order to RESHORE Generic Pharmaceutical Production into America, with a penalty to those Companies that decide not to build Plant and Equipment within the stated period of time given to them,” he wrote in a Truth Social post….

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Household income required to purchase a starter home in the United States has risen to $78,000 from $43,000 seven years ago, according to a July 20 report from Realtor.com.  The 80-plus percent increase far outpaces America’s median household income, which grew by 28.3 percent, from $69,000 to $88,100, over the same period.
The report also indicates that compared to June 2019, there are now about 300,000 fewer homes on the market priced under $350,000—reflecting the reduced supply of starter homes. In addition, seven years ago, the average starter home sold for $256,000, compared with the current average of $344,000.
The report shows that in June 2019, 55.1 percent of active listings were priced under $350,000, but that amount has dropped to 37.6 percent today. …

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General Motors said it will spend between $1 billion and $1.5 billion in 2026 to bring more automobile production to the United States as it strives to offset the ongoing impacts of tariffs. Meanwhile, the company will introduce a new line of gasoline-powered Cadillac vehicles beginning in 2027 in a clear shift away from electric vehicles (EVs).
The Detroit-based automobile manufacturer stated during its second-quarter earnings call on July 21 that it will start onshoring significant manufacturing starting next year, bringing domestic production capacity to more than 2 million vehicles and reducing its exposure to tariff charges.
GM said it paid approximately $900 million in tariffs in the second quarter and expects to realize similar charges in the third and fourth quarters. GM maintained its forecast of full-year bottom-line charges of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion from tariffs….

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President Donald Trump’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act protected millions of U.S. manufacturing jobs, says a group representing the nation’s manufacturers.
The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) released a new report on July 21, marking the first anniversary since Congress passed the legislation.
The law features various provisions to stimulate the manufacturing sector, including 100 percent expensing of newly built factories and immediate depreciation of machinery.
Analysis shows the economic impact on the manufacturing industry across all 50 states one year later.
“Tax policy is far more than numbers on a spreadsheet, and these stories—across all 50 states—show the real-world impact of pro-growth policies that have given manufacturers the confidence to invest, hire, raise wages and expand facilities,” said Jay Timmons, the organization’s president and CEO….

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President Donald Trump said on July 20 that he will impose a 50 percent tariff on certain Canadian goods in retaliation for discrimination against U.S. alcohol, cars, and dairy.
It comes as the administration has been pushing for substantive reforms to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, also known as the USMCA, and opted not to renew the deal beyond 2036 earlier this month.
Here is what to know about Trump’s 50 percent tariff on America’s neighbor to the north.
Inside the New Tariffs
The president signed three orders that will impose a 50 percent levy on almost $20 billion in Canadian goods, covering hundreds of products….

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Commentary
Last Thursday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported its June sales soaring 67.9% to a record $13.99 billion. TSM also said its second-quarter sales rose 36% and earnings surged 77.4%. Then they raised sales guidance above analyst estimates. That led to profit-taking and mean reversion algorithms causing a short sell on the news, but TSM’s results and guidance bode well for all AI stocks.
Underlining the strength of data center stocks, The Wall Street Journal published an article entitled: “AI Data-Center Construction Is Booming—but Not Much Else Is.” This indicates AI data center stocks will likely dominate second-quarter announcement season. Not only did TSM pre-announce record sales growth, but ASML also announced stronger-than-expected second-quarter results and raised its guidance….

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President Donald Trump on Monday directed the Commerce Department to launch an incentive program designed to increase U.S. production of primary aluminum, a metal the administration considers to be in short supply despite national-security tariffs already in place. 
The action, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, means the secretary of commerce may solicit and approve “onshoring plans” from companies that pledge to build new primary aluminum facilities, expand existing ones, or refurbish outdated smelters in the United States, with construction under any approved plan having to start by Jan. 20, 2029.
Companies with approved plans may then import a quantity of primary aluminum equal to the reasonably anticipated annual output of the new or expanded U.S. facility at half the Section 232 duty rate that would otherwise be applicable. The reduced-rate import allowance is limited to the value of the company’s investment on refurbishment projects….

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The nation’s supply of used automobiles increased slightly in June as retail sales slowed, helping ease month-over-month price growth to a modest 0.4 percent after large early-year gains, according to Cox Automotive’s monthly used-car market analysis released on July 17.
Automotive dealers held 2.14 million used vehicles in inventory in June, which equates to 47 days’ worth of supply, Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto Live Market View data showed. That’s a 0.2 percent year-over-year increase and a 1 percent uptick from May, when dealerships held 2.12 million used cars and trucks at 45 days’ supply.
Used vehicle inventory hit a yearly low of 1.95 million vehicles and a 37-day supply in March due in large part to a surge in sales to 1.64 million vehicles for the month. The modest increase in supply in June is a boon to consumers, with sharp average price hikes seen since the start of the year easing for the first month of summer. …

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U.S. President Donald Trump imposed an additional 50 percent tariff on some Canadian goods July 20, saying the country has discriminated against American dairy, alcohol, and auto exports.
“President Trump is taking action to hold Canada accountable for its continued discrimination against and unreasonable and unequal treatment of U.S. commerce that has burdened and disadvantaged hardworking Americans,” the White House said in a statement.
The tariffs take effect in 30 days.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
…

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The U.S. government has bought back almost $200 billion in debt this year, according to an Epoch Times review of Treasury Department data.
A Treasury debt buyback occurs when the federal government repurchases its outstanding bonds before maturity, removing older securities from circulation and issuing new debt in their place.
The approach may seem counterintuitive, since a sizable share of current debt was issued at historically low interest rates, and new debt is being issued at today’s higher rates.
But the Treasury’s strategy is twofold: to smooth maturity profiles to mitigate future refinancing spikes and to improve liquidity in the bond market….

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The average U.S. gasoline price rose above $4 per gallon on July 20 as fighting between the United States and Iran continued to restrict oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The nationwide average price of regular gasoline reached $4.003 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association, after standing just below the politically sensitive threshold on July 19.
“Instability along the Strait of Hormuz is contributing to the increase at the pump,” the association said in a recent note.
The last time the national average stood at $4 or higher was June 17, when it was about $4.02 per gallon.
Brent crude futures were down by 16 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $87.94 per barrel by 5:22 a.m. ET after hitting $91.42, the highest level since June 11. …

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The number of automobile owners trading in vehicles with negative equity continues to rise, with 29.6 percent of trade-ins in the second quarter showing more money owed on existing auto loans than the vehicles were worth, according to automotive insights platform Edmunds’s July 16 vehicle transaction report.
Negative equity also pushed average monthly payments on “underwater” trade-ins to $944 in the quarter, the highest figure on record, the report said.
That’s $167 more per month than trade-ins without negative equity considerations, and those higher loans are expected to account for an additional $16,270 in interest paid over the loan term—another record high that’s nearly $6,500 more than the average new-vehicle loan issued during the quarter. …

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U.S. technology shares reversed course this week, giving up all the gains they made the previous week. Profit-taking and concerns about AI competition from China and whether AI investment returns will meet expectations hit the semiconductor sector, pushing it into bear territory.
The sell-off in tech stocks came despite cooling inflation at both the retail and wholesale levels, which eased fears of an interest rate hike by the nation’s central bank.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.93 percent lower, closing at 52,146. The S&P 500 dropped 1.55 percent to 7,457, near its weekly low touched on July 17. The Nasdaq Composite fared far worse, down 2.90 percent. The Russell 2000 fell 0.52 percent. …

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President Donald Trump said Friday that the United States would hold Canada responsible for the smoke from wildfires that drifted down from Ontario and impacted the air quality of multiple states this week.
“We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests, and Brush therein, and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air, the quality of which is dangerous, and totally unacceptable!” Trump said in a Friday post on Truth Social.
Trump’s statement came after about a dozen states issued warnings and alerts on Thursday and Friday as smoke from the Canadian wildfires drifted across the Northeast and northern Midwest. The National Weather Service confirmed Friday that air quality alerts were in place due to the air quality in the Northeast and the Great Lakes region being considered “unhealthy” or “hazardous.” …

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As high housing costs nationwide continue to reshape buyer decisions, many house hunters, including first-time buyers, are turning to relatively affordable inland college towns, pushing home prices in some of those markets up at double-digit rates, according to a July 15 Redfin report.
The national real estate brokerage defines a “college town” as one in which at least 10 percent of the population is made up of students at a four-year accredited college and is located at least 30 miles from a metro area that has a population of more than a million people.
Ranking the most and least expensive college towns, Redfin noted that many of the most affordable markets were in the Midwest and South, attributing their lower median home prices to more abundant land and lower homebuilding costs. …

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Easing gasoline costs bolstered U.S. consumer sentiment in July, but improving confidence may not persist as pump prices target $4 again.
The University of Michigan’s widely watched Consumer Sentiment Index surged 10 percent this month to 54.4, from 49.5 in June.
July’s preliminary reading marked the second straight monthly boost and represented the highest level since February. This also came in above the market estimate of 51.
The indexes for current economic conditions and consumer expectations also climbed 15 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively.
But overall sentiment remains down by almost 12 percent from a year ago as renewed price pressures weigh on Americans’ wallets.
Since the Iranian conflict began in late February, gasoline prices have been highly volatile….

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A low number of layoffs is keeping the U.S. labor market steady this summer, the government reported on July 16.
Initial jobless claims—the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits—declined by 8,000 to 208,000 for the week ending July 11, according to new Department of Labor data.
This came in firmly below economists’ expectations of 217,000.
The reading was the lowest since the first week of May, when claims dropped to their lowest level since 1969.
Weekly unemployment claims were edging higher heading into the summer, reflecting an increase in the number of school staff applying for benefits during the break. But they peaked in early June and have been venturing lower….

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U.S. consumers were more cautious opening their wallets last month as retail sales recorded their smallest increase since January, new government data show.
June retail sales rose by 0.2 percent, from an upwardly revised 1 percent gain in May, according to new data from the Census Bureau released on July 16.
This was in line with the consensus forecast.
Transactions were largely driven by motor vehicle and parts dealers and digital retailers, each of which climbed by 1.9 percent. Electronics and appliance stores also rose by almost 1 percent.
Amazon Prime Day contributed to the jump in digital sales, with industry experts estimating that the four-day event would top $26 billion….

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The United States has imposed a ‌25 percent tariff on some Brazilian imports for its unfair trade practices and policies in bilateral trade, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said on the July 15 statutory deadline.
The deadline marks the end of negotiations following a year-long investigation that found certain Brazilian actions and trade policies regarding the United States to be “unreasonable and burden or restrict the commerce of American farmers, workers, innovators, and exporters.”
“Today’s action is necessary to address these unfair trade practices to ensure American workers and companies can compete on a level playing field,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson ⁠Greer said….

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The average price paid for a new car rose marginally in June as buyers shifted to affordable vehicle options amid an economically uncertain environment, according to vehicle valuation company Kelley Blue Book (KBB).
In June, the average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle was $49,758, a 0.6 percent increase year-over-year, KBB said in a July 14 statement. Prices have remained steady, below the $50,000 level throughout this year. Buyers were found to have gravitated toward lower-priced offerings, with sales of subcompact SUVs, with an ATP of $31,113 in June, rising by over 23 percent on an annual basis.
The sales of small/medium pickup trucks rose by 12.3 percent year-over-year, while the sales of full-size pickups, which tend to be more expensive, grew by a smaller 2.5 percent….

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Commentary
As we move into the start of the second quarter earnings announcement season later this week, we are locked and loaded for another great earnings announcement season. After all, the second quarter was the best-performing quarter for both the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 in the past six years, so expectations remain high, since economic growth is clearly accelerating. My favorite economist, Ed Yardeni, pointed out we are in the midst of a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) market, and industry analysts are estimating the S&P 500 will post 26.1% annual earnings growth for 2026 and then +17.8% for 2027.
Since fundamentally superior stocks in our portfolio are not appreciating as fast as their underlying earnings, their price/earnings (P/E) ratios are being compressed. The stock market should be strong this summer due to wave after wave of positive earnings announcements in upcoming weeks – and the rest of this year. Also, due to rising household wealth for the 50% of Americans in the stock market, some of this “wealth effect” is expected to filter down and help boost prosperity for all Americans, as the velocity of money increases….

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LAS VEGAS—Steve Forbes, CEO of the Forbes magazine and publishing company, knows the American economy has problems.
The cost of living is rising, housing affordability is an issue, as is the national debt and inflation.
Forbes says he knows who is to blame and he knows who can remedy the issues. Forbes says the best thing the government can do is to stabilize the dollar and let the free market do its work.
Forbes spoke with The Epoch Times senior editor and “American Thought Leaders” host Jan Jakielek at FreedomFest 2026 in Las Vegas on July 11.
Forbes discussed current economic issues, the role of the Federal Reserve, and how the United States should deal with the potential complications in Taiwan and Iran….

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The Trade Fraud Task Force, launched by the Justice Department and Department of Homeland Security in August 2025, has recovered or charged more than $1 billion in civil and criminal recoveries, penalties, forfeitures, and charged losses in less than a year, the DOJ said Tuesday.
The milestone reflects the federal government’s increased focus on using criminal prosecutions and civil enforcement under the False Claims Act to combat customs and trade fraud, the DOJ said in a statement.
“For too long, fraud actors have viewed customs violations as a mere surcharge or cost of doing business,” said Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald of the Justice Department’s National Fraud Enforcement Division, in a press release. …

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Homebuyers in 70 percent of America’s top housing markets could have the upper hand this summer, according to a July 14 report from Redfin.
The national real estate brokerage found that 33 out of the 47 metro regions it analyzed were buyer’s markets in June, with nearly half a million, or 48.5 percent, more home sellers than buyers. Sellers outnumbered buyers nearly two to one in places such as Miami, Nashville, and large portions of Texas.
“The biggest hurdle for Americans looking to buy a home is affordability, but those with the budget to move now—even in the face of record-high home prices and stubbornly high mortgage rates—have the power,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said in the report….

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A shortage of memory chips for smartphones due to chip manufacturers shifting priorities to support the artificial intelligence (AI) boom led to the lowest level of global smartphone shipments in the past 13 years, a new report stated.
Shipments of smartphones in the second quarter fell 11 percent year over year, noted Counterpoint Research’s preliminary market monitor report released on July 13.
With prices for smartphone DRAM (working memory) and NAND (storage memory) continuing to rise as chipmakers prioritize AI data center customers over consumer electronics, smartphone manufacturers have been forced to pass on higher costs to customers, Counterpoint said.
Price hikes have been especially prominent in entry- and mid-tier devices, which account for the majority of smartphones sold worldwide, said Shilpi Jain, Counterpoint senior analyst….

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Many American families are struggling to make ends meet on their incomes alone and have resorted to credit cards, payday loans, and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) options for groceries, according to nonprofit research center Urban Institute.
The findings are based on a survey of 18-to 64-year-old working-age adults conducted in December 2025. About 8.7 percent of adults said they used a credit card for groceries and were unable to make the minimum payment, up from 7.1 percent in 2023, the Urban Institute said in a July 13 report. This suggests “worsening financial distress” among families.
Almost one in 10 used BNPL to pay for groceries, out of which more than a third missed a timely repayment last year….

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Federal regulators are warning the banking industry to carefully consider the risks of lending to individuals who lack authorization to work in the United States, including income uncertainty and the risk of deportation.
“When a borrower’s income is derived from employment that is not legally authorized, the source of repayment may be less reliable ​and may ​present increased credit risk,” the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) said in joint guidance released on Monday.
The guidance does not impose new requirements or outright prohibit banks and credit unions from lending to such borrowers. Instead, it reminds them of their existing obligations….

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Credit availability for American car buyers improved last month, with loan approval rates climbing and more people taking longer-term loans, according to a July 10 analysis by industry expert Cox Automotive.
In June, the Dealertrack Credit Availability Index, which indicates whether access to credit is improving or declining, jumped to 104.6, the highest level in over a decade and the fifth straight monthly increase. Rising index values suggest it has become easier for consumers to secure auto loans. The index tracks various factors affecting auto credit access, including loan approval rates and the term periods.
The jump in index values was driven primarily by a “sharp recovery” in auto loan approval rates by lenders, together with the share of long-term loans among overall loans hitting an all-time high, the company said….

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As America marks its 250th anniversary, it also celebrates the foundations of its prosperity: a tradition of innovation and entrepreneurship, free-market capitalism, and institutions that have helped transform it into a global superpower.
Over two-and-a-half centuries, the country has achieved remarkable economic growth, evolving from a largely agrarian society into the world’s leading economy.
Its path, however, has not been easy. America’s political and economic systems faced severe tests from the Civil War to the Great Depression. Yet time and again, the country has defied predictions of decline and recovered strongly from each crisis.
Arthur Herman, historian and author of “Founder’s Fire: From 1776 to the Age of Trump,” argues that the defining characteristic of the American economy has been a culture of risk-taking that stretches back to the nation’s earliest settlements….

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Almost two-thirds of Americans said they prefer to live in homes in close proximity to parks, restaurants, and shopping, even if it means housing costs more, a new survey from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) found.
The NAR’s triennial Community and Transportation Preferences Survey, released on July 10, polled 2,000 Americans in 50 of the country’s largest metropolitan regions this past May. Walkability, living in mixed-use neighborhoods that blend public spaces with retail and commercial businesses, and having a variety of choices when it comes to housing were primary concerns when searching for housing, regardless of whether those amenities come with a cost premium….

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Technology shares regained market leadership this week amid major deals among tech giants and the successful debut of SK Hynix shares on Wall Street. The tech rally came despite another spike in oil prices, which pressured the bond market—a headwind for the broader market.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.50 percent lower, closing at 52,637. The S&P 500 rose 1.23 percent to 7,575, near its weekly high reached on July 10. The Nasdaq Composite fared far better, up 1.74 percent. The Russell 2000 fell 0.61 percent.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index closed the week at 15.03, down 3.47 percent.
Stocks opened the week sharply higher on July 6, led by the tech sector. The sector rebounded from a sell-off at the end of last week, as buy-the-dip investors returned to the market. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.12 percent for the day. The S&P 500 rose 0.72 percent. The Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 posted moderate gains of 0.30 percent and 0.61 percent….

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Personal bankruptcy filings in the United States rose for the third straight year in 2025, climbing nearly 50 percent from their recent low in 2022, according to a new report.
There were 549,577 personal bankruptcy filings last year, loan marketplace LendingTree said in a study published July 6. That equals an average of 1,489 Americans filing for bankruptcy each day.
The total marked an 11 percent increase from 494,201 filings in 2024 and a 46.9 percent jump from 374,240 filings in 2022, when filings reached a recent low.
Chapter 7 bankruptcies accounted for the majority of personal filings in 2025, making up 62.3 percent of the total. Chapter 7, often referred to as the “clean slate” or liquidation bankruptcy, can involve the sale of nonexempt assets to repay creditors….

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Artificial intelligence (AI) firms are absorbing office space in primary markets such as San Francisco and New York City at a record pace, and the sector’s voracious demand for office space to build out development teams and products has begun spilling into a select subset of submarkets as well.
National AI office demand was up 85 percent in the 12 months through May and spiked 179 percent in major AI hubs, a new AI report published on July 9 by AI-powered commercial real estate platform VTS states.
AI companies represented office demand of 16.8 million square feet across 17 markets during the period, VTS senior research manager Rene Moreira noted….

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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh released the names of the members who will be on the central bank’s task forces on July 9.
Warsh announced last month the creation of five task forces to review the Fed’s monetary policymaking framework, with officials examining everything from data utilization to the balance sheet.
Among the names are former Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King, who will be one of three individuals reviewing how the Fed communicates with the public during times of uncertainty.
As part of the new central bank leader’s reforms, communication has been a top priority, with Warsh abandoning forward guidance. Minutes from the June policy meeting suggest he has the backing of his colleagues….

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Fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, as the labor market continues along at a brisk pace, new government data show.
Initial jobless claims declined by 2,000 to 215,000 for the week ending July 4, according to the Department of Labor. This is the lowest level since late May.
This came in below economists’ expectations of 218,000. The previous week’s reading was revised slightly up to 217,000.
Unemployment claims have been edging higher over the past two months, which economists attribute to non-teaching staff in various states applying for jobless benefits during the summer holiday.
The latest claims data, meanwhile, come one week after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that hiring momentum over the past few months had stalled….

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The National Coffee Association (NCA) asked the Trump administration on July 8 to keep Brazilian green coffee exempt from tariffs during a session of public consultation that is reviewing ‌tariffs on Brazilian imports.
The federal government is holding consultations this week ​regarding the Section 301 investigation into Brazilian trade practices. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of coffee, and supplies a third of U.S. needs. The country was hit ​by a 50 percent ​tariff last year until Washington decided to include green coffee in ​a list of exemptions.
The NCA also asked the administration on Wednesday to include instant coffee on the list of tariff-free Brazilian products….

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Almost all Federal Reserve officials agreed at the June policy meeting that some monetary policy tightening would be “warranted” to restore 2 percent inflation, according to minutes released on July 8.
The central bank voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged in the target range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent at last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Participants discussed various economic scenarios amid an environment of stable employment conditions, elevated inflation, tariff effects, and the Middle East conflict.
“In such scenarios, almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2 percent,” the document stated….

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The global economy will grow more slowly this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a July update, with stronger technology investment providing some offset from the effects of the Middle East conflict.
Global growth is expected to reach 3 percent this year, the IMF said, down from 3.5 percent in both 2024 and 2025, before an expected rebound to 3.4 percent in 2027.
“The global outlook is being shaped by two powerful forces pulling in opposite directions: the lingering effects of the energy shock from the war in the Middle East, and a technology-driven investment boom,” Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s Research Department, said in a July 7 statement….

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When it comes to finding the perfect location for a rental property, WalletHub’s July 7 report gives the thumbs-up to Arizona, whose cities of Scottsdale, Gilbert, and Chandler took the top three spots. In total, eight Arizona locations ranked among the top 25 cities as the country’s best bets for rentals.
Analyzing more than 180 top rental markets, WalletHub based its ranking on 21 key measures, including affordability, insurance, vacancy rates, square footage, cost of living, quality of life, job market, recreation, weather, and quality of schools.
“In the best cities for renters, rent can cost you as little as around 15% of your income. You’ll also have access to robust laws that protect renters, such as limiting deposits to only a month or two of rent,” WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo said in the report….

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Commentary
The stock market is benefiting from the Russell index realignment, which created June buying pressure in small-to-mid capitalization stocks. For the month of June, the Russell 2000 gained 3.6% vs. losses in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but last quarter delivered 21% gains in both the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ:
Second Quarter Gains
NASDAQ +21.4%
Russell 2000 +21.2%
S&P 500 +14.9%
Dow Industrials +13.1%
(Data source: Yahoo Finance)
Both the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 posted their best quarter in the past six years. Although NASDAQ posted an impressive 21.4% gain for the second quarter, that is below the average annual earnings among NASDAQ stocks, according to FactSet, so price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are being compressed. Furthermore, I expect third-quarter GDP growth to accelerate to a 5% to 6% annual pace, fueled by AI productivity gains, surging energy exports and robust consumer spending. Order backlogs for AI and data center-related companies reached a 3-year delay, so the data center boom should continue….

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Growth in the U.S. services economy continued in June, according to two closely watched measures of business activity.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global released their June services data on Monday. The ISM index declined while the S&P Global index edged up, although both remained firmly above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction.
Together, the readings suggest that the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, remains resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty and persistent cost pressures.
S&P Global’s U.S. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose a modest 0.5 points in June to 51.2, just below forecasts of 51.3. The reading marked the strongest expansion in four months, following the outbreak of the United States and Israel’s war with Iran….

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U.S. consumers managed to push through a choppy first half of the year—from higher gasoline prices to uneven employment conditions—and still kept spending.
Fuel costs and the labor market remain households’ biggest worries, surveys show, yet shoppers continued to power the broader economy well beyond the gas station.
Now, with pain at the pump subsiding and unemployment still hovering near historic lows, the question is whether the second half will offer consumers a smoother ride.
Employment Ups and Downs
The United States kicked off 2026 on a high note by adding 160,000 new jobs in January. A month later, the labor market reversed virtually all of those employment gains. This resulted in almost no payroll growth in the first two months of the year….

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U.S. automakers reported mixed June sales in an increasingly electrified market, with Ford, General Motors (GM), and Toyota rolling out dozens of new electric vehicle (EV) models and hybrids to give consumers more affordable options—and to close the gap with Tesla.
Ford posted a 14.2 percent jump in second-quarter sales to 612,095 vehicles, with market share climbing to an estimated 14.3 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from the first quarter, the company announced on July 1.
The legacy automaker has been investing heavily in what it calls “powertrain choices”—a lineup spanning gas, hybrid, electric, and diesel vehicles—aimed at making cars affordable to mass-market consumers, much as it did more than a decade ago. It is a direct challenge to both Tesla and Chinese EV makers….

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The University of California (UC) released a new report on July 1 stating that 63 percent of undergraduate students in the class of 2024 graduated debt free, compared to just 43 percent in 2013.
The average debt of in-state students in 2024 was $17,300, compared to $28,700 in 2013.
“Most UC students graduate debt-free, and for those who borrow, the debt is generally manageable and declining over time,” the report states. “UC has … reduced [the] cost of obtaining a college degree.”
For the upcoming 2026–2027 school year, UC charges an estimated $15,588 in tuition for a year, up from the $12,570 it charged five years ago.
With other charges like housing, textbooks, and meals, it costs more than $47,000 annually for in-state students living on campus and over $46,000 for those living off campus, according to UC’s website….

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The national median apartment rent saw an uptick of 0.4 percent in June to $1,385 per month, marking the fifth month in a row of price hikes, according to Apartment List’s July National Rent Report.
“We are now in the middle of the peak summer moving season, and as such, we’ll likely see prices continue to increase for another month or two, before the fall cooldown begins,” the report states.
Compared to the same month last year, the median rent dipped by 1.2 percent, or $17. Meanwhile, it has dropped by about 4 percent, or $57, from its 2022 peak.
Despite the price reductions, today’s rent levels are still 21 percent higher than they were at the beginning of 2021….

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a fresh record this week amid an ongoing market rotation out of the hot tech sector and into defensive sectors, such as consumer staples and pharmaceuticals, that have been lagging.
Steady bond prices, amid lower oil prices and a cooling labor market, have accommodated this bullish rotation, as money leaving the leading stock sectors flows into lagging sectors rather than into other asset classes. But some analysts are concerned that the heightened volatility seen in recent weeks is a warning sign of a significant correction ahead.
For the week, the Dow rose 1.89 percent to close at an all-time high of 52,900. The S&P 500 closed 1.71 percent higher at 7,483, near its high for the week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.87 percent, while the Russell 2000 lost 0.39 percent….

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The European Union introduced new steel import limits and customs rules for low-value parcels on July 1 as trade talks with China continue over widening economic tensions.
The measures are part of the EU’s broader effort to protect domestic industries while addressing a record goods trade deficit with China, which reached about €360 billion ($410 billion) in 2025, according to Eurostat.
The European Commission replaced its previous steel safeguard system with a new regime allowing 18.3 million metric tonnes of steel imports annually without tariffs. Imports above those quotas will face a 50 percent duty across 26 steel product categories.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a July 1 statement on X that the parcel changes are about “restoring fairness” for businesses and strengthening consumer protection, as the bloc seeks to curb a surge in low-value imports….

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on July 29 announced it was launching a new $500 million program for agricultural producers with the goal of boosting domestic fertilizer production and strengthening the U.S. supply chain.
The Fertilizer Investment & Expansion for Long-Term Domestic Supply (FIELDS) program was heralded as a means to lower fertilizer costs for American farmers in a press conference by Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins at the USDA’s headquarters in Arlington, Virginia.
The FIELDS initiative provides funding for companies that construct new fertilizer facilities, purchase existing plants or land to increase fertilizer output through expansion, or invest in fertilizer terminals and transportation infrastructure that improves the efficiency of the domestic supply chain….

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Potential homebuyers on the sidelines may get a break this summer as list prices decreased by 2.5 percent year over year in June, the biggest decline since 2017, according to a July 1 report by Realtor.com.
Another sign that the market could be rebalancing is that, for the first time in 26 months, homes were on the market for no longer than a year earlier, and pending sales climbed by 3.7 percent year over year—increasing for the seventh month in a row—the housing listings and data platform indicated.
“Eight straight months of falling prices and seven straight months of rising pending sales are not a contradiction,” Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said in the report. “Sellers are reading market conditions and are pricing accordingly from the start rather than listing high and cutting later, and buyers are taking note and making bids.”…

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The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in June, as hiring momentum slowed heading into the summer.
Payrolls grew by 57,000 last month, a sharp slowdown from May’s 129,000 gain, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on July 2.
Markets had forecast an increase of 110,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate eased to 4.2 percent, from 4.3 percent—also below economists’ estimates.
This is a developing story. Please check back for further updates.
…

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U.S. factory activity eased from its four-year high in June as the manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace, new industry data released on July 1 show.
The widely watched Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—a monthly survey to determine the sector’s prevailing economic direction—dipped to 53.3, from 54 in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management. This represented the sixth consecutive month of growth—a PMI above 47.5 percent indicates an expanding economy.
Output and new orders continued to expand but slowed from the previous month, as frontrunning by U.S. firms may have run its course.
Thirty-four percent of the survey’s comments were positive, while 66 percent were negative. Price volatility, the war in Iran, and tariffs were the most mentioned developments….

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Businesses added more employees and laid off fewer workers last month, supporting a strong U.S. labor market, according to new data.
Private employers added 98,000 new jobs in June, from 122,000 in the previous month, payroll processor ADP reported on July 1.
This came in slightly below the consensus forecast of 113,000.
Employment gains were broad-based, led by education and health services (48,000) and trade, transportation, and utilities (15,000). Jobs in financial services also jumped 14,000, while manufacturing picked up 5,000.
Companies of all sizes also bolstered headcount, with small businesses—companies with fewer than 49 employees—adding 53,000 positions.
“The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand. We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said in a statement….

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Businesses added more employees and laid off fewer workers last month, supporting a strong U.S. labor market, according to new data.
Private employers added 98,000 new jobs in June, from 122,000 in the previous month, payroll processor ADP reported on July 1.
This came in slightly below the consensus forecast of 113,000.
Employment gains were broad-based, led by education and health services (48,000) and trade, transportation, and utilities (15,000). Jobs in financial services also jumped 14,000, while manufacturing picked up 5,000.
Companies of all sizes also bolstered headcount, with small businesses—companies with fewer than 49 employees—adding 53,000 positions.
“The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand. We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said in a statement….

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Nothing could derail the U.S. stock market in the first half of 2026.
Wall Street has shrugged off various events since January: the war in Iran, concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, private credit stress, and renewed inflation challenges.
This has led to U.S. stocks climbing or flirting with all-time highs.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average put together its best first-half performance since 2021, registering a 9 percent gain. The yardstick of 30 leading U.S. companies is now trading in record territory, firmly above 52,000.
Change is also coming to the index, as the Dow Jones is replacing Verizon with Alphabet….

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The ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom underscores a harder-to-resolve supply issue for copper, according to veteran natural resource investor Rick Rule.
Speaking recently with Siyamak Khorrami, host of EpochTV’s “Market Insider,” Rule said the increasingly energy-intensive lives people around the world are living have pushed up demand for copper. With companies and countries investing heavily in AI, future demand for the red metal will be “staggering,” he said.
At the same time, the world, especially the United States, doesn’t have enough copper development projects “in the pipeline,” Rule said, making a copper shortage and higher prices inevitable.
Growing Supply Deficit
According to the International Copper Study Group, global refined copper consumption rose to 28.2 million metric tons in 2025 from 25.8 million metric tons in 2022, while production increased to 28.6 million metric tons from 25.2 million metric tons over the same period. This represents a supply surplus of 400,000 metric tons….

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Frustrated by rising home prices in the Northeast and coastal areas, 19.1 percent of home seekers across the nation considered relocation in the first quarter of 2026, according to a June 29 Redfin report. Florida, Las Vegas, and Phoenix ranked among the most popular destinations.
The share was slightly up from 18.9 percent in the same period in 2025, and marked the highest share on record since 2021. Analyzing more than 100 metro areas, Redfin identified those interested in relocating from home searches outside their current region. Users must have viewed at least 20 for-sale or for-rent homes in a destination during a one-month period to be considered as those seeking to relocate there….

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Commentary
The big news last week was Micron Technology’s (MU) earnings announcement on Wednesday, marking the grand finale to a stunning earnings announcement season. According to Earnings Insight from FactSet, year-over-year earnings for the S&P grew by 23.1%, the second straight 20%+ quarterly earnings surge.
Micron’s revenues rose 345.8% to $41.46 billion (vs. $9.3 billion in the same quarter a year ago), and in the same period, earnings soared by an astronomical 1,368% to $28.24 billion or $24.67 per share (vs. 1.89 billion or $1.68 per share last year). Excluding extraordinary items, Micron’s operating earnings were $25.11 per share. The analyst community was expecting revenue of $35.25 billion and operating earnings of $20.28 per share, so Micron Technology posted a 17.6% revenue surprise and a 23.8% earnings surprise. The company also raised its quarterly guidance to between $49 billion and $51 billion in revenue, substantially higher than the analysts’ consensus estimate of $43.2 billion. The stock is up 300% so far this year, but last Friday’s Barron’s said Micron “Could Still Double from Here.”…

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President Donald Trump has temporarily suspended certain duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco after declaring an emergency over fertilizer supplies.
Trump said the move will help ensure American farmers have enough fertilizer as global supply disruptions continue to pressure agricultural markets.
The White House issued a proclamation on June 29, authorizing duty-free imports of certain Moroccan phosphate fertilizers for up to eight months, or until the declared emergency ends.
The decision follows weeks of concern over fertilizer supplies after conflict in the Middle East disrupted trade and shipping routes, including around the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for global fertilizer and energy shipments….

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Call it a “RAMpocalypse.”
The global artificial intelligence (AI) arms race has triggered a memory chip shortage.
Demand for memory chips is shifting from everyday consumer products to data centers.
“We are in the midst of a memory super cycle,” Di Zhou, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, told The Epoch Times in a note.
Since typical modern hyperscale data centers consume tens of millions of semiconductor chips—analog, foundational, logic, and memory—they will account for about 50 percent of all global chip sales. A single AI server rack contains more than 4,500 packaged chips.
By comparison, the average smartphone contains as many as 30 individual chips….

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U.S. stocks saw heightened volatility this week amid investor concerns about financing massive artificial intelligence (AI) projects and shortages of critical components such as memory chips.
Lower oil prices and a solid gross domestic product (GDP) report helped contain the losses, mostly in the tech sector, as investors directed funds into other sectors rather than pulling them out of equities altogether.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.60 percent to close at 51,876. The S&P 500 closed 1.95 percent lower to 7,354, near the low for the week. The Nasdaq Composite was down 4.60 percent, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.02 percent.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index closed the week at 18.41, up 6.54 percent….

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Depending on where you choose to live, $1,500 a month can get you a 1,378-square-foot, three-bedroom apartment in McAllen, Texas, or 210 square feet in Manhattan—smaller than a typical studio.
A June report from RentCafe indicates that in 64.5 percent of 200 major U.S. cities, $1,500 a month covers an average of 703 square feet of space—enough for at least a one-bedroom rental.
With the national average apartment rental at $1,740 as of March, apartment seekers can expect about 835 square feet of living space.
According to the report, McAllen offers the nation’s largest living spaces available for $1,500 monthly rent.
Livability.com, an online national resource for those considering relocation, calls McAllen “the perfect South Texas community,” due to its low cost of living, vibrant arts and music scene, and strong local economy. The website notes that more than 100 Fortune 500 companies also have a presence in the city….

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As an alternative to packing planes full of passengers paying lower prices, U.S. Airlines are taking a more disciplined approach to the peak July 4 travel weekend by offering less capacity, according to a June 26 report from IBA.
The global aviation intelligence and advisory firm headquartered in the United Kingdom reported that this year, capacity from June 27 to July 4 has declined slightly among U.S. airlines, despite a strong demand among holiday travelers.
“July 4th capacity tells a punchy story of fewer low-cost carrier seats, more full-service carrier capacity, and a market being managed for margin rather than volume,” Dan Taylor, IBA head of consulting, said in a news release emailed to The Epoch Times….

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Micron Technology stock surged following the June 24 release of its third-quarter earnings and fourth-quarter outlook, which crushed expectations and showed demand for memory chips is still soaring.
Shares of the chipmaker jumped nearly 16 percent on Thursday, closing the session at $1,213, with a market cap of nearly $1.37 trillion. At its intra-day peak of $1,255, its market cap briefly passed Meta and Tesla, making Micron the 11th-largest company in the world before falling behind the two companies at the market close.
“Micron’s record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook for Q4 reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era,” Sanjay Mehrotra, president and CEO of Micron, said. “Micron is investing at record levels in technology, products and supply to address our customers’ rapidly growing demand. We believe our multi-year strategic customer agreements will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance.”…

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The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits declined sharply to the lowest level in four weeks, new government data show.
Initial jobless claims declined by 12,000 to a one-month low of 215,000 for the week ending 20, according to the Department of Labor.
This came in below the economists’ forecast of 225,000.
The four-week average, which strips out week-to-week volatility, ticked up to 224,250.
Over the past five years, unemployment claims have hovered between 200,000 and 250,000. In April, claims fell to their lowest level since 1969, reaching 190,000.
Employment conditions have been improving over the last three months after a rocky start to 2026. Hiring momentum has picked up heading into the summer months, while layoffs have remained low….

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Consumer spending and business investment powered the U.S. economy in the first quarter, according to the final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The January–March GDP growth rate came in at 2.1 percent.
The initial estimate was 2 percent, then revised downward to 1.6 percent in the second projection.
Data show that consumer spending and business investment contributed significantly to the last quarter’s expansion.
In the first three months of 2026, consumer spending rose 0.5 percent.
Despite war-driven inflationary pressures, shoppers are still opening their wallets, and this is not entirely due to higher gasoline prices.
Excluding gasoline and automotive dealers, retail sales have been resilient. Additionally, Bank of America debit and credit card spending has been robust throughout much of the Iranian conflict….

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Oil prices fell to their lowest levels since before the outbreak of the Iran war on Thursday as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, signaling that crude exports from the Gulf are steadily returning to normal and easing prolonged supply disruption fears.
Brent crude futures for August delivery fell about 1.4 percent to around $72.70 a barrel in early morning trading on June 25, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped about 1.1 percent to below $70. Prices have now fallen for four straight sessions, wiping out all of the gains recorded since the conflict began.
The decline comes as confidence grows that a preliminary U.S.–Iran peace agreement reached last week will hold, allowing oil shipments to resume through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints….

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The United States is currently short millions of homes, according to various estimates. At the same time, with housing starts falling to their lowest level in six years in May, Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), recently predicted that 2026 will be another “down year” for new home construction.
He said many factors are impeding the pace of new homebuilding, but local legal and regulatory burdens are “the really big one,” particularly in states such as California and New York.
Entry-Level Housing Shortage
Speaking with Siyamak Khorrami, host of EpochTV’s “Market Insider,” Dietz said potential homebuyers are facing short-term challenges from rising mortgage rates resulting from higher inflation and oil prices, and long-term challenges from housing shortages caused by a decade and a half of underbuilding, which have pushed home prices to present high levels. …

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The S&P 500’s performance in the first half of 2026 tells two very different stories. On one hand, the benchmark index has surged to record highs. On the other, the rally has been unusually narrow, driven largely by artificial intelligence (AI) and energy stocks while much of the rest of the market has lagged.
“Strip out AI and energy, and the S&P 500 is down,” Torsten Slok, partner and chief economist at Apollo, wrote in a post on the firm’s website.
Data from Fidelity as of June 18 shows the index’s gains are led by the information technology sector—the sector at the core of the AI trend—up by 21.06 percent year to date, followed by energy, up by 18.61 percent, and materials, up by 12.70 percent….

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America’s largest banks have passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test with flying colors.
Since the global financial crisis almost 20 years ago, the Fed has conducted annual stress tests to determine whether the largest banks could withstand an economic shock.
Major banks could endure a “severe recession” and keep lending to businesses and households, the Fed said in its latest stress test results released on June 24.
Under this year’s hypothetical scenario involving 32 banks—with $708 billion in total loan losses—capital positions declined by just 1.6 percentage points in aggregate, remaining firmly above the 4.5 percent minimum capital requirement.
“Today’s results underscore the strength of the banking system,” Michelle Bowman, the Fed vice chair for supervision, said in a statement….

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Sales of newly built homes fell unexpectedly in May, marking the second consecutive month-over-month decline, according to a June 24 report from the Census Bureau.
New home sales fell 7.3 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000, down from 626,000 in April, following a 5.7 percent drop the previous month. The sales level is far below market expectations of about 640,000 for May.
The May new home sales also declined by 6.8 percent from the May 2025 rate of 622,000.
Rising mortgage rates and inflation, along with economic uncertainty, may have kept many new home seekers out of the market in May, according to Bill Owens, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)….

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Small investors accounted for nearly one-third of single-family home investor purchases in the United States in 2025, the highest share in 15 years, while large institutional investors continued to retreat, according to a June 23 Realtor.com Investor Report.
Meanwhile, investor purchases in the housing market remained steady.
“The investor market has found a new equilibrium,” Realtor.com senior economist Hannah Jones said in the report. “The dynamics shaping competition in entry-level housing are shifting—but that competition hasn’t gone away, particularly in affordable Midwest and Sun Belt markets.”
The data show that investors of all sizes scooped up 11.3 percent of all home purchases in 2025—an uptick from 11 percent in 2024. Nearly 534,000 homes were bought by investors last year, representing a 0.7 percent year-over-year increase. However, investors sold just 442,000 properties—a 1.5 percent decline from 2024….

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday described a doctrine of “economic statecraft” that would link U.S. economic policy more closely to national sovereignty and security, contending that assumptions underpinning the postwar global order have created critical vulnerabilities that adversaries can exploit.
Speaking at The Economic Club of New York’s America 250 Gala Dinner on the eve of the nation’s 250th anniversary, Bessent argued that the United States helped build an open economic system that brought broad global benefits, but that system needs to be reconsidered.
“We came to believe that access to the American market could be extended without condition—and therefore without consequence,” Bessent said in prepared remarks. “We assumed that closer economic integration would result in a greater convergence of interests. That supply chains would function in every crisis. Low prices would compensate for lost capacity. And above all, that other countries would treat our firms as fairly as we had treated theirs.”…

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Despite elevated mortgage rates and high home prices, the majority of Americans still favor buying a home rather than renting in the current housing environment, a new report from Bank of America said.
BofA’s Homebuyer Insights Report, released on June 23, shows that 53 percent of survey respondents said buying a home is the preferred option versus renting or living with family members, the first time in three years of positive homebuying sentiment.
“We are seeing meaningful changes in attitudes toward homeownership,” Matt Vernon, head of consumer lending at Bank of America, said.
“Despite real and persistent challenges in the market, buyers and owners are increasingly optimistic, and many are starting to move forward rather than waiting on the sidelines.”…

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Commentary
Crude oil prices fell almost 30% in the last month, from levels above $109 per barrel on May 19 to just $76.50 on June 19, the lowest cost for a barrel of crude since March 4, in the first week of the war in Iran.
All this happened in the wake of President Trump signing a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, effectively reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Navy blockade on Iran’s ports was briefly lifted, but the sailing may not be smooth, since Iran announced over the weekend that the Strait of Hormuz is closed once again, due to Israel’s strikes in Lebanon, as Iran is trying to exert leverage to put pressure on Israel….

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U.S. gasoline prices have fallen for a sixth consecutive week, slipping below $4 per gallon nationally, as easing concerns over global oil supplies and improving prospects for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz provided relief for motorists during the peak summer travel season.
The national average price for regular gasoline stood at $3.93 per gallon on June 23, according to the American Automobile Association, or AAA, down from $3.99 a week earlier and more than 58 cents below levels seen a month ago.
Separate data from fuel-tracking service GasBuddy showed prices fell 14.1 cents over the past week to an average of $3.85 per gallon on Monday, extending a decline that has erased roughly 15 percent from gasoline prices since their May peak….

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California’s billionaire tax proposal has garnered enough signatures to become eligible for the general election ballot on Nov. 3, Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber announced June 17.
Weber said the initiative gained 962,000 required projected signatures, calculated through random sampling, 110 percent of the approximately 875,000 valid signatures needed by June 24. She said she will certify the initiative as qualified on June 25.
The measure is a proposed one-time tax of up to 5 percent on individuals with a net worth of more than $1 billion living in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026, with some exceptions that include certain pensions and retirement accounts.
The state, home to more billionaires than any other, already relies on its top 1 percent of earners for nearly half of its personal income tax revenue….

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Stocks recorded strong gains this week, led by a rally in technology shares as the signing of a peace deal between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices lower and helped calm fears of interest rate hikes.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.41 percent to close at 51,564. The S&P 500 closed 1.44 percent higher to 7,500, below the high reached earlier in the week. The Nasdaq Composite fared much better, up by 2.74 percent, while the Russell 2000 gained 2.01 percent.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index closed the week at 16.40, down by 15.64 percent.
Stocks opened the shortened week sharply higher on June 15 amid lower oil prices, after the United States and Iran reached an agreement on the previous day to end the conflict in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the week. West Texas Intermediate crude plunged more than 5 percent to around $80 per barrel, close to a two-month low, paving the way for the easing of inflationary pressures that cast a veil of uncertainty over the United States and the global economies. …

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Rental affordability is on the rise, according to a June 18 Zillow report, which stated that 74 percent of America’s apartment rentals were affordable for a median-income household in May.
An analysis by the nation’s leading real estate and rental marketplace shows that last month had the highest share of affordable units ever recorded for May. To be considered affordable, a median-income household would spend no more than 30 percent of its income on rent.   
The national median monthly rent across all property types was $1,951 in May, according to the analysis. Using the 30 percent formula, a household would need to earn about $6,500 a month before taxes for that rent to be affordable. In San Jose, California, the median rent was $3,625—the highest in the country. A household there would need to earn just over $12,000 per month for that price to be considered affordable….

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The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits eased from last week’s four-month high as the job market continues to hold steady.
Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000 for the week ending June 13, according to new Department of Labor data released on June 18. The previous week’s reading was revised up to 230,000.
This came in slightly above the market forecast of 225,000.
The four-week average, which strips out week-to-week volatility, ticked up by 4,000 to 223,250.
Momentum in the U.S. labor market has seemingly stalled this month, maintaining the same low-fire, low-hire position of the past two years.
“Despite a strong payroll report in May, this is still a low-hire, low-fire market, and the labor data have yet to point to gathering momentum,” Indeed Hiring Lab economists said in a June 18 research note….

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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh hosted his first policy meeting as head of the U.S. central bank, leaving interest rates unchanged on June 17.
Warsh also held his first press conference, telling the media that a series of reforms to how the Fed communicates with the public are coming soon.
Financial markets panicked when Warsh concluded his remarks, while President Donald Trump says he is “guided” by what his replacement for Jerome Powell wants. Market watchers believe change is coming to the 113-year-old institution.
Here are the key takeaways from Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Shorter Statement
The committee publishes statements at the end of its two-day policy meeting. These feature a brief summary of economic conditions, the rate action, biased language (tightening or easing), the balance sheet, and voting members’ decisions. They are typically around 400 words….

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The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as chairman of the U.S. central bank.
Officials voted 12–0 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent.
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East,” the post-meeting Federal Open Market Committee statement reads. “Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
Inflation is still running above the committee’s 2 percent target, partly because of supply‑side shocks that have pushed up prices in areas such as energy, the Fed said. …

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Americans searching for affordable apartments may be in luck this summer, as the downward rental trend continues, according to Realtor.com’s May Rental Report.
Last month marked the 34th consecutive month of year-over-year declines for studio to two-bedroom rents across the country’s 50 largest metro areas. The national median asking rent declined by 1.5 percent, or $26, compared with a year ago, standing at $1,686 per month in May.
An analysis of each apartment category showed that median studio rents nationwide fell by 1.9 percent, or $27, year over year to $1,422. One-bedroom rents were down by 1.5 percent, or $24, to $1,573, and two-bedroom rents also dropped by 1.5 percent, or $28, to $1,885….

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Housing starts in the United States fell to their lowest level since 2020 as builders grapple with high construction costs and weak demand, while consumers wrestle with elevated mortgage rates and affordability.
Total housing starts, which include single-family homes, apartments, and condominiums, declined by 15.4 percent from April to May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million housing units, a Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development report stated on June 16. May’s overall housing starts were 8.7 percent lower than the same month in 2025, with single-family home starts decreasing 1.9 percent from April.
The decline in the total number of new starts was led by a steep dip in new multifamily construction, which tumbled 40.2 percent month over month to a seasonally adjusted pace of 295,000 units for buildings that have five or more apartments. Multifamily starts were down by 14.2 percent year over year….

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States in the Midwest and South received all of the “A” and “B” grades for affordability and new homebuilding awarded in Realtor.com’s 2026 Affordability & Homebuilding Report Cards released on June 15. Indiana took the top spot with an “A,” moving up from fourth place last year, while New York ranked last with an “F.”
Indiana homebuyers can purchase a typical single-family home for a median price of  $295,810, spending about 28.3 percent of their average monthly income on mortgage payments—below the 30 percent threshold used to define affordability. In New York, potential buyers would need to spend 55.2 percent of their household income to cover the mortgage costs at a median listing of $668,173….

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Japan’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in more than three decades on June 16, citing broadening inflation pressures and rising energy costs.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) voted 7–1 to raise its policy rate to around 1 percent from 0.75 percent, marking the highest benchmark interest rate since 1995. The new rate takes effect on June 17.
The decision comes as policymakers assess the economic fallout from months of conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted energy supplies and pushed up oil prices worldwide.
“Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part, partly due to the impact of the situation in the Middle East,” the central bank said in its June 16 policy statement….

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The U.S. Supreme Court on June 15 declined to hear a legal challenge to tariffs imposed on Chinese imports by U.S. President Donald Trump during his first term in 2018.
The decision follows an appeal by HMTX Industries and other businesses after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit last year upheld the tariffs, which Trump previously imposed on Chinese goods under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 in response to China’s unfair trade practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation.
The plaintiffs petitioned the Supreme Court to review the ruling, but the high court denied the request on June 15, keeping the tariffs in place. The justices did not provide any explanation for the decision….

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The U.S. private credit default rate remained at a record high in May, according to the latest update from Fitch Ratings released on June 15.
Private credit woes this year have taken a backseat to various headwinds and tailwinds, whether the war in Iran or SpaceX’s blockbuster debut on Wall Street.
But data suggest that pressures are still mounting for the industry.
Fitch Ratings said its Private Credit Default Rate remained at a record 6 percent in May, unchanged from the previous month.
Monitoring approximately 1,500 private credit issuers, Fitch logged 14 default events last month. Healthcare providers, business services, and industrial manufacturing each registered three events….

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Rising housing prices in the United States continue to pressure homeowner affordability, a trend most keenly felt in California, which has 105 cities listing starter homes costing more than $1 million.
Nationwide, a record 242 cities in 26 states now have starter homes listed at or above the $1 million threshold, Zillow researchers stated on June 15. Starter homes are typically smaller, lower-priced residences that meet the limited affordability requirements of first-time homebuyers. Starter home prices averaged $198,649 nationally in the first quarter, up by 1.7 percent from a year earlier, and are usually in the lower third of home values for any given region, Zillow noted.
However, the number of cities where starter homes have surged to the seven-figure mark increased by 7 percent year over year on the strength of an extended run-up in housing prices, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said. Home values have seen positive annual appreciation each year dating back to the start of 2012, FHFA stated, with year-over-year prices rising in 65 of the largest metropolitan regions in the first quarter of 2026….

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Rising housing prices in the United States continue to pressure homeowner affordability, a trend most keenly felt in California, which has 105 cities listing starter homes costing more than $1 million.
Nationwide, a record 242 cities in 26 states now have starter homes listed at or above the $1 million threshold, Zillow researchers stated on June 15. Starter homes are typically smaller, lower-priced residences that meet the limited affordability requirements of first-time homebuyers. Starter home prices averaged $198,649 nationally in the first quarter, up by 1.7 percent from a year earlier, and are usually in the lower third of home values for any given region, Zillow noted.
However, the number of cities where starter homes have surged to the seven-figure mark increased by 7 percent year over year on the strength of an extended run-up in housing prices, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said. Home values have seen positive annual appreciation each year dating back to the start of 2012, FHFA stated, with year-over-year prices rising in 65 of the largest metropolitan regions in the first quarter of 2026….

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U.S. President Donald Trump on June 15 threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on French wines and champagne unless France eliminates its digital services tax on large American technology companies.
Trump said he delivered the warning directly to French President Emmanuel Macron, demanding that Paris scrap its 3 percent levy on major U.S. tech firms or face steep duties on some of France’s best-known exports.
“I asked him not to charge American companies, and if they do, I have no choice but to charge a 100% tariff on all champagnes and all wines coming out of France,” Trump told the New York Post in an interview. “All [Macron] has to do is get rid of the sales tax, and he wouldn’t have that kind of pressure.”…

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U.S. President Donald Trump on June 15 threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on French wines and champagne unless France eliminates its digital services tax on large American technology companies.
Trump said he delivered the warning directly to French President Emmanuel Macron, demanding that Paris scrap its 3 percent levy on major U.S. tech firms or face steep duties on some of France’s best-known exports.
“I asked him not to charge American companies, and if they do, I have no choice but to charge a 100% tariff on all champagnes and all wines coming out of France,” Trump told the New York Post in an interview. “All [Macron] has to do is get rid of the sales tax, and he wouldn’t have that kind of pressure.”…

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