The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday, but its latest projections delivered a surprise: more policymakers now expect the next move to be a rate increase rather than a rate cut.

In its first policy decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed voted 12-0 to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, where it has remained since December.

The bigger story was not the decision itself, but what came next.

The Fed’s updated economic projections showed officials abandoning their earlier expectation of a rate cut this year. Instead, the median forecast now points to a benchmark rate of 3.8% by the end of 2026, compared with 3.4% in the Fed’s March outlook.

Of the 18 officials submitting forecasts, nine now expect at least one rate hike before year-end, while six foresee two quarter-point increases.

Just three months ago, most policymakers were still expecting lower rates.

Inflation Changes the Conversation

The shift reflects growing concern over inflation.

Fed officials now expect their preferred inflation gauge to finish the year at 3.6%, significantly above the central bank’s 2% target and well above the 2.7% forecast issued in March.

Higher energy prices have been a major factor behind the inflation outlook, forcing policymakers to reconsider the path of monetary policy.

The Fed’s latest projections also show:

• Economic growth: 2.2%
• Unemployment: 4.3%
• Inflation: 3.6%

The new forecasts suggest the central bank is becoming increasingly concerned that inflation could remain elevated longer than previously expected.

What It Means for Consumers

For households, the message is straightforward: borrowing costs are likely to remain high.

Mortgage rates, auto loans, business financing, and credit card interest rates are all influenced by the Fed’s policy stance. If the central bank ultimately raises rates again, those costs could increase further.

The upside for consumers is that savings accounts, money-market funds, and certificates of deposit may continue offering relatively attractive yields.

For Americans waiting for cheaper financing to purchase a home, vehicle, or expand a business, relief may be further away than expected.

Warsh’s First Meeting as Chair

Wednesday’s decision marked the first policy meeting led by Kevin Warsh, who was nominated by President Donald Trump.

Warsh introduced a shorter and simplified policy statement and announced plans to review several aspects of how the Fed communicates with markets and the public.

In an unusual move, Warsh declined to submit his own interest-rate projection to the Fed’s closely watched “dot plot,” saying he did not believe it was helpful to the policymaking process.

He indicated the Fed would review its broader communications strategy, including projections, press conferences, meeting minutes, and transcripts.

Markets React

Investors reacted negatively to the Fed’s more hawkish tone.

By Wednesday afternoon:

• The S&P 500 fell about 0.6%
• The Nasdaq declined roughly 0.7%
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost approximately 160 points
• The 2-year Treasury yield jumped nearly 11 basis points

The market reaction reflected disappointment among investors who had hoped a new Fed chair might signal a path toward lower interest rates.

Instead, policymakers delivered a clear message: inflation remains the priority.

Looking Ahead

The Federal Reserve is still officially in a wait-and-see mode, but the debate inside the central bank appears to be changing.

For much of the past year, the question was when rates would be cut.

Now, for the first time in this cycle, the discussion has shifted toward whether the next move may need to be a hike.

JBizNews Desk
Washington, D.C.

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Smith & Wesson Brands reported a sharp jump in sales and profit on Wednesday, and behind the numbers sits a demand story the Maryville, Tennessee gunmaker rarely spells out: a country where fear — much of it driven by a record stretch of antisemitic violence — is sending first-time buyers to gun counters. The company posted results for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year ended April 30, with handguns accounting for the overwhelming majority of shipment growth.

The clearest signal is the gap between the company and the wider market. Handgun shipments into the sporting-goods channel rose 23.2% even as the national background-check measure rose just 1.1%, and handguns made up more than 80% of units shipped. People are not simply buying more guns — particular buyers are, for particular reasons.

One of those reasons runs straight through the American Jewish community.

In its annual audit released May 6, 2026, the Anti-Defamation League called 2025 one of the most violent and deadly years for Jews in the United States, counting 6,274 antisemitic incidents of assault, harassment, and vandalism — an average of 17 incidents per day. The year before, in 2024, the group recorded 9,354 incidents, a record high. “Numbers that would have shocked us five years ago are now our floor,” ADL Chief Executive Jonathan Greenblatt said.

The violence has been concrete and recent.

On May 21, 2025, two Israeli Embassy staffers were shot and killed outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington. Days later, on June 1, 2025, a man threw Molotov cocktails at a Run for Their Lives gathering supporting Israeli hostages in Boulder, Colorado, an attack that later claimed the life of an 82-year-old woman. Additional incidents followed, including a truck driven into a synagogue in West Bloomfield, Michigan, in March 2026, and an arson attack at Mississippi’s oldest synagogue in January 2026.

The response has been measurable.

Surveys released in October 2025 by the ADL and the Jewish Federations of North America found that 9% of American Jews had purchased a firearm because of security concerns, while 13% had installed new security systems. For a community historically associated with relatively low rates of gun ownership, the shift is significant.

Organizations have emerged to meet that demand.

Lox & Loaded, a Jewish firearms-training organization founded in March 2025, has expanded to 21 states, 40 chapters, and more than 1,000 members. In April 2026, the group announced a partnership with the National Rifle Association to provide expanded training opportunities and range access. Other organizations, including Magen Am and the Community Security Service, have expanded security training programs for synagogues and Jewish institutions. Collectively, Jewish organizations now spend an estimated $765 million annually on security measures.

The financial results reflect the demand.

Fourth-quarter net sales reached $178.4 million, up 26.7% from a year earlier, while earnings came in at 36 cents per share. Full-year sales totaled $523.8 million, an increase of 10.4%. The board declared a quarterly dividend of 13 cents per share, payable on July 15.

Chief Financial Officer Deana McPherson pointed directly to handguns as the primary driver of performance.

“Our outperformance was mostly driven by handgun shipments, which represented over 80% of our units shipped,” she said.

New products generated 37.5% of fourth-quarter revenue, and management said it expects overall firearm demand to remain relatively stable. President and CEO Mark Smith has credited recent product launches and disciplined pricing for helping drive growth.

The same firearms purchased by some consumers for protection continue to place Smith & Wesson at the center of the national debate over gun violence.

Survivors of the 2022 Highland Park Fourth of July parade shooting have sued the company, alleging it improperly marketed a rifle to vulnerable young men. The case remains active. Earlier this week, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge by gun manufacturers to a New York law allowing the state and private plaintiffs to sue firearm companies over criminal misuse of their products. Smith & Wesson was among the challengers.

The firearms industry argues that such lawsuits conflict with the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, a federal law enacted in 2005 that shields manufacturers from many claims arising from criminal misuse of firearms. Gun-control advocates counter that companies should face accountability when marketing or business practices contribute to violence.

For investors, the earnings report highlights a company benefiting from strong demand and favorable product trends. For the broader public, it underscores a more complicated reality: a firearm manufacturer posting some of its strongest results in years while a growing number of Americans — including many Jews who once avoided gun ownership — decide that personal protection has become a necessity.

JBizNews Desk
Wall Street

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President Donald Trump threatened Earlier this week to slap a 100% tariff on all French wine and champagne unless France scraps the tax it charges large American technology companies, escalating a long-running fight over digital taxation just as he headed to a summit on French soil.

In an interview with the New York Post, Trump said he had taken the warning directly to French President Emmanuel Macron.

“I asked him not to charge American companies, and if they do, I have no choice but to charge a 100% tariff on all champagnes and all wines coming out of France,” he said, adding that all Macron needs to do is drop the tax.

At the center of the dispute is France’s digital services tax, a 3% levy it introduced in 2019 on the revenue that big technology firms earn within the country.

The tax falls heavily on American giants such as Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft, and because it applies to gross revenue rather than profit, companies pay it even in years they earn little.

Washington has argued for years that the tax unfairly singles out U.S. firms.

Macron showed no sign of backing down.

Speaking from the G7 summit he is hosting in the French Alps, he said it is not for the United States to decide French or European law and made clear the tax would stay as long as he is in office.

With his term ending in 2027, Macron has grown less concerned with pleasing the American president.

For France’s winemakers, though, the threat is serious.

The United States is the single biggest buyer of French wine and spirits, accounting for about 21% of the industry’s exports last year.

French and European wines already face a 15% U.S. tariff, up from 10% earlier, and exports to the United States slumped about 21% last year.

Doubling the price of a bottle with a 100% tariff would deal a heavy blow to an industry already under strain, and French exporters reacted with alarm.

Here is what it would mean closer to home.

A 100% tariff is effectively a doubling of the cost of bringing French wine and champagne into the country, and much of that increase tends to reach the shelf.

A bottle that sells for $40 today could approach $60 or more, hitting American restaurants, importers and shoppers who favor French labels.

In that sense, a tax aimed at protecting U.S. tech companies would land squarely on U.S. wine drinkers.

The clash is part of a much bigger standoff.

Digital services taxes have become a flashpoint between Washington and its trading partners, with the United States arguing they discriminate against American firms that dominate the internet economy.

During Trump’s first term, U.S. trade officials opened formal investigations into France’s tax and proposed similar tariffs.

Last year, Canada scrapped its own digital tax under pressure from Trump to keep trade talks alive, a precedent the administration would surely like France to follow.

So far, France is not following it.

The threat now hangs over the G7 gathering, an awkward backdrop for a meeting meant to project unity among allies.

Whether it becomes a real tariff or remains a negotiating club depends on whether Paris blinks, and for the moment, Macron is holding firm.

American wine lovers, and the businesses that sell to them, will be watching closely.

Évian, France — JBizNews Desk

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Investors headed into Wednesday focused on the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision while oil prices continued their recent decline, extending a five-session losing streak as traders weighed growing expectations for additional global crude supplies.

Markets traded modestly higher in early action as investors awaited the central bank’s announcement later in the day. The focus remained on interest rates, inflation, and any signals policymakers might provide about the direction of monetary policy in the months ahead.

The S&P 500 edged higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also posted gains. Market participants largely expected the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, shifting attention toward policymakers’ economic projections and commentary regarding inflation and economic growth.

On the corporate front, earnings reports remained in focus.

Jabil reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results, benefiting from continued demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure and data center investments. The manufacturing services company exceeded analyst expectations on both earnings and revenue, helping lift sentiment across parts of the technology sector.

CarMax also drew attention after releasing quarterly results as investors continued to assess the outlook for consumer spending and the used-vehicle market. Analysts remain divided on the company’s turnaround prospects amid a challenging retail environment.

Technology shares were mixed following recent profit-taking across the semiconductor sector. Investors continued to evaluate whether the rapid growth driven by artificial intelligence can support current valuations after a powerful rally over the past year.

In commodities trading, oil prices remained under pressure. Brent crude extended its decline toward levels not seen in several months, while West Texas Intermediate also moved lower. Traders pointed to expectations for increased global supply, including potential additional exports from major producers and higher output from members of the OPEC+ alliance.

The decline in oil helped ease some inflation concerns that have weighed on financial markets in recent months. Lower energy prices can reduce transportation and production costs across the economy, potentially supporting consumers and businesses.

Gold prices also softened as investors reduced some safe-haven positions, while market volatility remained relatively subdued ahead of the Fed announcement.

By the afternoon, attention was expected to shift almost entirely to the central bank’s decision and accompanying comments. Investors will be looking for clues about whether policymakers believe inflation remains a significant threat or whether economic conditions may eventually justify lower interest rates.

With earnings season continuing and energy markets adjusting to changing geopolitical conditions, traders are expected to remain highly focused on incoming economic data and central bank guidance in the days ahead.

JBizNews Desk
Wall Street

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The world could go from scrambling for every barrel to drowning in crude within about a year and a half, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday in its monthly Oil Market Report, the first edition to carry a full-year forecast for 2027.

The Paris-based agency, which advises 32 member countries on energy policy, laid out a sharp reversal. After a brutal stretch in which the U.S.-Iran war knocked millions of barrels a day offline and pushed fuel prices to painful highs, the report said a steady rebound in production — provided the interim peace deal between Washington and Tehran actually holds — would lift global supply far beyond what the world is on track to burn.

The numbers tell the story. The agency expects oil supply to climb by roughly 8 million barrels a day next year, reaching about 110.3 million barrels a day, as Persian Gulf production comes back online and OPEC+ raises its output targets. Demand, by contrast, is seen rising a far more modest 2 million barrels a day, to 105.3 million. That gap points to an enormous glut in 2027 — what the agency called a significant overhang building across the market.

That would be a stunning flip from the shortage gripping the market right now. The IEA again cut its demand outlook for this year, saying the pain from high prices has spread well beyond the regions and industries hit first. It now sees 2026 demand at 103.3 million barrels a day, down from 104 million in its May report and a 3.9 million-barrel drop from 2025 levels.

Second-quarter deliveries were especially weak. Early data showed consumption running 5 million barrels a day below a year earlier — the first global quarterly demand drop since the pandemic year of 2020. The agency said the weakness is carrying into the summer, with shipments of major fuels, gasoil in particular, straining across nearly every region as steep prices and a tougher economy push every product category into decline.

Prices have already started to ease as a result. North Sea Dated crude, a global benchmark, tumbled more than $40 a barrel to around $82 between early May and mid-June as buyers pulled back. That is a long way down from the swings earlier in the war, when the benchmark spiked toward $144 a barrel before sliding below $100 on conflicting signals about whether a deal would get done.

Supply this year is still badly depressed. The agency pegged 2026 output at 102.4 million barrels a day, a small upgrade from its last report but a 3.9 million-barrel fall from 2025. May production came in at 94.5 million barrels a day — down 600,000 from April and a striking 13.6 million below where the world was producing before the conflict began.

The strain shows up clearly in storage. Global oil inventories have been drained by an average of 3.8 million barrels a day since the U.S.-Iran war started, with May alone seeing a 4.6 million-barrel-a-day draw. Government emergency stocks held by IEA member countries fell to their lowest level since December 1990, as nations kept releasing reserves to plug the gap.

For all the optimism about 2027, the agency was careful to flag how fragile the peace is. While the interim agreement clears a path for Middle East exports to recover, it warned that practical and political hurdles — including the slow work of clearing mines from shipping lanes and unresolved arrangements for moving cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz — leave real downside risk. The agency stressed that its 2027 rebound is subject to a substantial level of uncertainty tied directly to whether the proposed deal sticks.

Refineries remain under pressure in the meantime. The report sees crude processing shrinking by 2 million barrels a day this year, to 82 million, led by a steep drop over the spring, before recovering by about 3.1 million barrels a day in 2027 as crude supplies normalize.

If the glut does materialize, the agency framed it as a rare opening. A wave of surplus oil, it said, would give governments and companies a chance to refill drained tanks and even build new strategic reserves — a priority for many countries now rethinking their energy plans after the shock of the past several months. For drivers and households that have been squeezed at the pump and on home heating, a market tipping back toward oversupply would be the clearest sign yet that the worst of the price spike is in the rear-view mirror — so long as the guns stay quiet.

JBizNews Desk
Wall Street

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NEWTOWN, Pa. — Shares of Traws Pharma collapsed on Monday, sinking to an all-time low after the small drugmaker said British regulators had blocked a key test of its experimental flu treatment. In a statement issued late Friday, June 12, the company said the United Kingdom’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) had given a negative review to its planned mid-stage human study of tivoxavir marboxil, forcing the trial to be postponed.

The reaction was brutal. Traws Pharma stock fell about 17% in early Monday trading and dropped as much as 24% during the session, sliding to roughly $0.97 a share — a new 52-week low for a stock that traded as high as $3.27 over the past year. With limited Wall Street coverage, investors who do follow the company voted with their feet, wiping out a large chunk of its already small market value in a single morning.

Tivoxavir marboxil, the company’s lead drug, is a long-acting antiviral designed to treat and prevent influenza, including dangerous strains of bird flu. The blocked study was a human challenge trial, in which healthy volunteers would have received either the drug or a placebo and then been deliberately exposed to a controlled flu strain. That study was the centerpiece of the company’s near-term plans, and the regulator’s refusal leaves a major hole in its roadmap.

The British decision is especially painful because it follows a similar setback from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In February, the FDA placed a clinical hold on the company’s application to test the drug, citing concerns about mutagenicity — the potential of a substance to cause genetic mutations. With both the FDA and the MHRA now raising red flags, the path forward has narrowed sharply.

Traws Pharma is trying to reassure investors that the program still has life. “While we have had a setback in the development of our lead compound for influenza, the program continues to be a high priority,” said Dr. Robert Redfield, the company’s chief medical officer and former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Chief executive Iain Dukes said the feedback affects the timing of the study but not the company’s confidence in the science. He pointed to strong results in three animal models of bird flu and said the company has enough cash to operate into the first quarter of 2027 while advancing backup compounds designed to retain the original drug’s strengths without the mutagenicity concerns.

For a company of this size, timing and cash are everything. Traws Pharma raised up to $60 million in a private placement in April specifically to fund the now-postponed UK study — money raised for a trial that will not happen on schedule. Small clinical-stage drug developers typically have no products on the market and no sales. They survive on investor capital and the promise of future breakthroughs. When regulators halt a lead program, company value can disappear overnight.

Regulators such as the MHRA and FDA serve as gatekeepers between a laboratory discovery and a medicine patients can actually use. Their approval opens the door to testing and commercialization. Their objections can freeze a program, increase costs and force a company back to the drawing board.

For Traws Pharma, back-to-back regulatory setbacks in two countries have forced a strategic reset. The company’s hopes now rest increasingly on backup candidates that have yet to prove themselves in human testing.

The broader stakes extend beyond one stock. Long-acting flu treatments — particularly those that may be effective against bird flu — remain a significant public-health goal. But Monday’s plunge serves as a reminder of how fragile small biotechnology companies can be, and how quickly a regulatory decision thousands of miles away can erase years of investor optimism.

JBizNews Desk
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 52,000 for the first time Tuesday, setting a fresh record even as technology stocks retreated and investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

The Dow gained approximately 370 points, or 0.7%, finishing at an all-time high. The broader market moved in the opposite direction. The S&P 500 fell about 0.4%, the Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 1%, and the Russell 2000 declined roughly 0.6%.

After Monday’s technology-led rally following news of a U.S.-Iran peace framework, Tuesday saw investors rotate into more traditional sectors. Money flowed out of high-growth technology and artificial intelligence stocks and into financial, industrial, and blue-chip companies that carry greater weight in the Dow.

Market Movers

Financial and industrial stocks led the advance.

Goldman Sachs gained about 1.3%, Caterpillar rose roughly 2.2%, and American Express added nearly 1.7% as investors favored companies tied more directly to the broader economy.

One of the market’s biggest individual stories remained SpaceX, which surged approximately 20% after announcing plans to acquire Anysphere, the artificial intelligence startup behind the Cursor coding platform, in a deal valued at $60 billion. Despite that jump, weakness across much of the technology sector weighed on the Nasdaq.

Commodities

Oil prices remained relatively stable after recent declines tied to the U.S.-Iran agreement that reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude traded near $81 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered around $80, levels close to two-month lows. The decline reflects the fading geopolitical risk premium that had pushed energy prices higher during months of conflict.

Analysts noted that oil markets are now returning to more normal trading patterns as investors unwind positions built around expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough.

For consumers, lower oil prices could translate into additional relief at the gas pump in the weeks ahead.

Focus Turns to the Fed

Attention now shifts to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement.

Treasury markets signaled expectations for a measured approach. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to roughly 4.46%, while the 2-year yield slipped to about 4.05%.

Warsh takes over at a time when inflation has moderated, housing activity has softened, and energy prices have moved lower. Those factors generally support easier monetary policy, but investors remain uncertain about the timing and pace of any future rate cuts.

Markets will closely examine Wednesday’s statement and press conference for clues about the Fed’s outlook for the remainder of the year.

Looking Ahead

Another key event arrives Friday, when the formal signing of the Iran agreement is scheduled in Switzerland. Investors will be watching for confirmation that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues uninterrupted, a development that could place additional downward pressure on energy prices.

For now, the market is sending mixed signals. The Dow is reaching record highs on the strength of banks and industrial companies, while technology stocks that fueled much of the recent rally are taking a pause.

Whether that rotation continues may depend largely on what the Federal Reserve says next.

Wall Street — JBizNews Desk

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American households felt a little less gloomy in early June, recording their first meaningful improvement in sentiment since January. The University of Michigan said Friday that its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9 from May’s record low of 44.8, a gain of roughly 9% as easing gasoline prices offered consumers some relief.

Joanne Hsu, director of the university’s Surveys of Consumers, said the improvement was broad-based but cautioned that “views of the economy are still relatively dour.”

The rebound ended a four-month decline and came in ahead of economists’ expectations. Both major components of the survey improved: consumers reported feeling somewhat better about current economic conditions and slightly more optimistic about the months ahead. The gains were seen across age groups, income levels, educational backgrounds and political affiliations, with lower-income households showing some of the strongest improvement.

Even with the increase, consumer sentiment remains historically weak.

At 48.9, the index is still roughly 13% below where it began the year and about 19% lower than a year ago. The survey’s long-term average stands at 83.8, meaning June’s reading remains more than 40% below normal levels. In fact, despite the rebound, it remains the second-lowest reading recorded in the survey’s seven-decade history.

The improvement highlights how closely consumer attitudes remain tied to energy prices.

Since February, geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran have rattled energy markets and pushed fuel costs higher. Disruptions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz helped drive the national average gasoline price above $4.50 per gallon by May, putting additional pressure on household budgets already strained by inflation.

That is why even a modest decline in fuel prices can have an outsized impact on sentiment. For many consumers, gasoline prices are among the most visible indicators of economic health because they encounter them several times a week. When prices fall, confidence often improves quickly.

Inflation, however, remains a significant concern.

Consumers’ long-term inflation expectations held at 3.4%, remaining above levels generally considered comfortable by Federal Reserve policymakers. Persistent inflation expectations can complicate monetary policy decisions because they suggest consumers still expect prices to continue rising at an elevated pace.

That creates a challenge for the Federal Reserve as policymakers evaluate the path of interest rates. If inflation expectations remain elevated, the central bank may have less flexibility to lower borrowing costs, potentially delaying relief for consumers facing high mortgage, credit-card and auto-loan rates.

There is also an important timing factor in the survey results.

The interviews were conducted between May 19 and June 8, before the weekend announcement of a deal aimed at ending the conflict between the United States and Iran and before the subsequent decline in oil prices. If energy costs continue moving lower following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sentiment could improve further when the final June reading is released later this month.

For businesses, consumer confidence remains one of the most closely watched indicators in the economy.

Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity, and shifts in confidence often influence purchasing behavior. When households feel pressure, discretionary spending is typically among the first areas affected, impacting restaurants, retailers, travel companies and other consumer-facing industries.

Several major retailers and restaurant chains have already reported signs of more cautious spending and have increasingly relied on promotions and value-oriented offerings to attract customers.

The months ahead may determine whether June’s rebound marks the beginning of a broader recovery in consumer confidence or merely a temporary improvement.

A continued decline in gasoline prices, combined with greater stability in global energy markets, could help confidence recover further and support stronger spending. On the other hand, renewed inflation pressures or another spike in fuel costs could quickly reverse the gains seen this month.

For now, the message from American consumers appears cautiously optimistic. Conditions feel somewhat better than they did a month ago, and the sharp deterioration seen earlier this year has eased. But households remain far from confident that the economic challenges of the past several months are fully behind them.

JBizNews Desk
© JBizNews.com All Rights Reserved. Reproduction or distribution without written permission is prohibited.

American households felt a little less gloomy in early June, recording their first meaningful improvement in sentiment since January. The University of Michigan said Friday that its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9 from May’s record low of 44.8, a gain of roughly 9% as easing gasoline prices offered consumers some relief.

Joanne Hsu, director of the university’s Surveys of Consumers, said the improvement was broad-based but cautioned that “views of the economy are still relatively dour.”

The rebound ended a four-month decline and came in ahead of economists’ expectations. Both major components of the survey improved: consumers reported feeling somewhat better about current economic conditions and slightly more optimistic about the months ahead. The gains were seen across age groups, income levels, educational backgrounds and political affiliations, with lower-income households showing some of the strongest improvement.

Even with the increase, consumer sentiment remains historically weak.

At 48.9, the index is still roughly 13% below where it began the year and about 19% lower than a year ago. The survey’s long-term average stands at 83.8, meaning June’s reading remains more than 40% below normal levels. In fact, despite the rebound, it remains the second-lowest reading recorded in the survey’s seven-decade history.

The improvement highlights how closely consumer attitudes remain tied to energy prices.

Since February, geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran have rattled energy markets and pushed fuel costs higher. Disruptions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz helped drive the national average gasoline price above $4.50 per gallon by May, putting additional pressure on household budgets already strained by inflation.

That is why even a modest decline in fuel prices can have an outsized impact on sentiment. For many consumers, gasoline prices are among the most visible indicators of economic health because they encounter them several times a week. When prices fall, confidence often improves quickly.

Inflation, however, remains a significant concern.

Consumers’ long-term inflation expectations held at 3.4%, remaining above levels generally considered comfortable by Federal Reserve policymakers. Persistent inflation expectations can complicate monetary policy decisions because they suggest consumers still expect prices to continue rising at an elevated pace.

That creates a challenge for the Federal Reserve as policymakers evaluate the path of interest rates. If inflation expectations remain elevated, the central bank may have less flexibility to lower borrowing costs, potentially delaying relief for consumers facing high mortgage, credit-card and auto-loan rates.

There is also an important timing factor in the survey results.

The interviews were conducted between May 19 and June 8, before the weekend announcement of a deal aimed at ending the conflict between the United States and Iran and before the subsequent decline in oil prices. If energy costs continue moving lower following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sentiment could improve further when the final June reading is released later this month.

For businesses, consumer confidence remains one of the most closely watched indicators in the economy.

Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity, and shifts in confidence often influence purchasing behavior. When households feel pressure, discretionary spending is typically among the first areas affected, impacting restaurants, retailers, travel companies and other consumer-facing industries.

Several major retailers and restaurant chains have already reported signs of more cautious spending and have increasingly relied on promotions and value-oriented offerings to attract customers.

The months ahead may determine whether June’s rebound marks the beginning of a broader recovery in consumer confidence or merely a temporary improvement.

A continued decline in gasoline prices, combined with greater stability in global energy markets, could help confidence recover further and support stronger spending. On the other hand, renewed inflation pressures or another spike in fuel costs could quickly reverse the gains seen this month.

For now, the message from American consumers appears cautiously optimistic. Conditions feel somewhat better than they did a month ago, and the sharp deterioration seen earlier this year has eased. But households remain far from confident that the economic challenges of the past several months are fully behind them.

JBizNews Desk
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One of the biggest names on the Las Vegas Strip is changing hands. On Thursday, May 28, Fertitta Entertainment announced it had reached a deal to buy Caesars Entertainment in an all-cash transaction valued at about $17.6 billion, in what would be the largest casino takeover in U.S. history. The buyer is billionaire Tilman Fertitta, the Houston restaurant-and-casino mogul who already owns the Golden Nugget casinos, the Landry’s restaurant empire and the NBA’s Houston Rockets.

Under the agreement, Caesars shareholders will receive $31.00 in cash for each share they own. That is a 49% premium over where the stock traded on February 25, the last day before rumors of a deal began to swirl. The price tag includes roughly $5.7 billion in equity and the assumption of about $11.9 billion of Caesars’ existing debt. The Caesars board approved the deal unanimously and is urging shareholders to vote yes, calling the offer “compelling.”

Tilman Fertitta is one of the more colorful figures in American business. He built Landry’s from a single seafood restaurant into one of the country’s largest hospitality and dining companies, owns the Golden Nugget casino brand, and currently serves as the U.S. ambassador to Italy and San Marino. Buying Caesars dramatically expands his empire: the combined company would run about 60 resorts worldwide, including the eight Caesars properties along the Strip such as Caesars Palace, the Flamingo and The Linq.

Day-to-day, much would stay the same. Caesars chief executive Tom Reeg, chief financial officer Bret Yunker and president and operating chief Anthony Carano are all expected to keep their jobs. The Carano family, which holds roughly 5% of Caesars, agreed to roll part of its stake into the new, combined business rather than cash out.

The purchase is not contingent on financing, which signals confidence the money is in place. Fertitta Entertainment is paying with a mix of its own equity, the assumed Caesars debt, and new debt arranged by a group of 10 banks. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are advising Fertitta, while PJT Partners is advising Caesars. Once the deal closes, Caesars stock will stop trading on the Nasdaq and the company will go private — meaning ordinary investors will no longer be able to buy a piece of it.

The agreement includes what is known as a “go-shop” period running through about July 11, during which Caesars and its advisers are free to look for a better offer. If another bidder emerges with a higher price, the board can consider it. Such windows rarely produce a competing deal, but they let the board show shareholders it sought the best possible terms.

The timing reflects where the casino business sits right now. The biggest operators carry heavy debt loads from years of building and buying, and taking a company private gives new owners room to reshape it away from the quarter-to-quarter pressure of the stock market. For Fertitta, owning both Golden Nugget and Caesars creates a hospitality giant spanning Las Vegas, Atlantic City, regional casinos and a large online betting operation, since Caesars also runs a sports-betting, online-casino and poker platform.

For the tens of thousands of people who work at Caesars properties, a buyout like this usually brings a close look at costs, even as the buyer promises a smooth transition. For customers, the company says the merger will mean a wider range of destinations and rewards across more resorts. And for the gambling industry, the deal is a marker of how much money is still flowing into Las Vegas and regional gaming — a single owner is willing to spend $17.6 billion betting that Americans will keep coming to the tables.

The deal still needs approval from Caesars shareholders and from gaming and antitrust regulators, a process that can take many months. If it clears, the house that grew into one of the Strip’s defining brands will belong to one of the most aggressive dealmakers in American hospitality.

JBizNews Desk
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U.S. stock futures traded little changed following a strong market rally as investors shifted their focus from easing Middle East tensions to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, the first to be led by new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near flat, while S&P 500 futures slipped about 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures eased roughly 0.3%, reflecting a pause after a broad advance in equities.

Markets rallied after President Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran had reached a breakthrough agreement expected to be formally signed later this week. U.S. officials have said the deal could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, helping drive oil prices sharply lower and boosting shares of airlines, cruise operators, transportation companies, and other fuel-sensitive sectors.

Attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve.

The central bank begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday and will announce its decision Wednesday afternoon, followed by Warsh’s first press conference as Fed chair.

On the rate decision itself, expectations remain relatively clear.

According to CME FedWatch data, traders overwhelmingly expect policymakers to leave the federal funds rate unchanged within its current range of 3.50% to 3.75%. A recent Reuters survey of economists also showed broad expectations that rates will remain unchanged in the near term.

The significance of this meeting lies elsewhere.

In addition to its policy decision, the Fed will release updated economic forecasts and a revised dot plot, which reflects policymakers’ expectations for future interest-rate moves. Those projections could provide the clearest indication yet of whether the central bank believes inflation pressures are easing or whether additional tightening may be required.

Market expectations have shifted considerably in recent months.

Earlier this year, many investors expected the Fed to begin cutting rates before year-end. However, stronger-than-expected economic growth, a resilient labor market, and renewed inflation pressures have caused many forecasters to reconsider those assumptions.

Consumer prices rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, marking the highest inflation reading in three years. At the same time, employers added 172,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and reinforcing the view that the economy remains stronger than many analysts anticipated.

That combination of persistent inflation and solid employment growth has complicated the outlook for monetary policy.

Several Wall Street firms have adjusted their forecasts accordingly. Goldman Sachs recently pushed its expected timeline for rate cuts into 2027, citing continued inflation concerns and stronger economic activity.

Warsh enters the meeting facing heightened scrutiny.

Confirmed by the Senate last month, the new Fed chair is widely viewed as more focused on inflation risks than some of his predecessors. During his confirmation process, Warsh emphasized the importance of open debate among policymakers and signaled a willingness to challenge consensus when necessary.

Economists note that inflation pressures remain visible in several areas of the economy, particularly within the services sector, where price growth has remained stubborn despite earlier signs of moderation elsewhere.

The political environment adds another layer of complexity.

President Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates and argued that the economy does not require tighter monetary policy. Any indication that the Fed could consider additional rate increases would likely place Warsh in a difficult position between market expectations, economic data, and political pressure.

The Fed itself has shown signs of internal disagreement. Recent meetings produced some of the most notable policy dissents seen in years as officials debated the appropriate path for rates and inflation management.

For consumers, the outcome matters far beyond Wall Street.

The federal funds rate influences borrowing costs throughout the economy, affecting mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, business lending, and savings accounts. If policymakers signal that rates will remain elevated for longer, many borrowers could face continued pressure from high financing costs.

At the same time, higher rates generally benefit savers by supporting stronger yields on cash deposits and fixed-income investments.

Investors are expected to focus less on Wednesday’s rate announcement itself and more on the language surrounding it.

The updated forecasts, dot plot, and Warsh’s comments during his first post-meeting press conference may provide critical clues about whether the Fed sees inflation cooling sufficiently to eventually lower rates or whether policymakers believe additional tightening remains a possibility.

After markets spent the previous session reacting to geopolitical developments and falling oil prices, the next major move may depend on what the Federal Reserve’s new leader signals about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

JBizNews Desk
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NEW YORK — Warnings about artificial intelligence-driven job losses are growing louder, even as labor-market data reveal a significant gap in America’s unemployment safety net.

This month, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei renewed calls for policymakers to prepare for large-scale workforce disruption from AI. At the same time, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that most unemployed Americans never apply for unemployment benefits.

According to BLS findings, nearly 75% of unemployed workers did not seek unemployment assistance in 2022, a trend labor economists say remains largely unchanged today.

Amodei has repeatedly warned that AI could dramatically reshape white-collar employment, arguing that government action should begin before displacement accelerates.

Forecasts vary considerably.

Amodei has suggested AI could eliminate as much as half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years. Investor Kai-Fu Lee has similarly predicted that AI could disrupt roughly half of all jobs by 2027.

Mustafa Suleyman, who leads Microsoft’s AI division, has argued that much office work could eventually be automated, while JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has urged policymakers and businesses to begin planning now for significant labor-market changes.

Other analysts are more optimistic.

Research from Morgan Stanley suggests that while AI will reshape many occupations, new jobs are likely to emerge as older ones disappear, limiting long-term unemployment.

Even Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have recently moderated some of their earlier predictions.

What is clear is that workforce reductions are already occurring.

Nearly 120,000 technology-sector employees have reportedly been laid off this year as companies pursue AI-driven efficiency initiatives.

Despite those cuts, broader labor-market indicators remain relatively stable. Weekly unemployment claims continue to average roughly 200,000 to 250,000, while the national unemployment rate has edged up to approximately 4.4%, from 4.2% a year earlier.

The larger concern may be what happens if future layoffs accelerate.

According to a 2023 BLS survey, 55% of unemployed workers who did not apply for benefits believed they were ineligible. Reasons included voluntary resignation, termination for cause, insufficient work history, or jobs not covered by unemployment programs.

Others cited confusing rules, administrative barriers, or uncertainty about whether the process was worth pursuing.

Labor experts note that declining union membership may also leave more workers without guidance when navigating benefit systems. U.S. union membership fell to approximately 10% in 2024, the lowest level on record.

The consequences extend beyond individual households.

Unemployment benefits help maintain consumer spending during economic downturns by providing temporary income to displaced workers. When large numbers of unemployed individuals do not receive assistance, the economic impact of layoffs can spread more rapidly through local communities.

Reduced spending affects retailers, landlords, restaurants, and service businesses, increasing pressure throughout the economy.

Amodei has proposed several responses, including stronger worker protections, improved tracking of AI-related job displacement, expanded retraining programs, and the creation of a federal body focused on advanced AI oversight.

Other policy experts have called for simplifying unemployment-benefit systems and improving public awareness of eligibility requirements.

For now, the labor market remains relatively resilient.

But the combination of rising AI-related workforce reductions and low participation in unemployment programs highlights a vulnerability that could become more significant if automation accelerates.

Whether artificial intelligence ultimately creates more jobs than it eliminates remains uncertain.

What is already clear is that millions of workers are not accessing the benefits currently available to them — a challenge policymakers may need to address long before any large-scale AI disruption arrives.

Wall Street — JBizNews Desk

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NEW YORK — Wall Street kicked off a holiday-shortened week with a broad rally on Monday after President Donald Trump announced late Sunday on Truth Social that a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war was “complete,” clearing the way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil prices sharply lower.

“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Trump wrote in his post.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said a formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland, adding another sign that markets believe the conflict is winding down.

The agreement removed the single biggest weight on stocks over the past two months. Since the war began in late February, fears that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would choke off global oil supplies helped push crude above $90 per barrel and kept inflation concerns front and center. With that threat easing, investors returned to many of the stocks they had abandoned during the conflict.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.20%, or approximately 614 points, ending near 51,817.

The S&P 500 rose 1.49%, gaining approximately 111 points to close near 7,542, up from Friday’s finish of 7,431.46.

The Nasdaq Composite led the major indexes higher, climbing 2.38%, or roughly 616 points, to close near 26,505.

The Russell 2000 added 0.79%, finishing around 2,967.

Despite the impressive headline numbers, the rally was somewhat concentrated. By midafternoon, only slightly more than half of listed stocks were advancing, with much of the gains driven by technology shares.

Market Movers

Away from geopolitics, the day’s biggest corporate story was a major media transaction.

Fox Corporation announced it would acquire streaming-device maker Roku for $160 per share in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at approximately $22 billion.

The announcement sent Roku soaring about 20% to approximately $143.66, making it one of the strongest performers of the day. Despite the jump, Roku still traded below the agreed acquisition price.

Fox investors reacted far differently.

Fox Class A shares plunged 17.2%, while Fox Class B shares fell 15.7%, making the company the worst performer in the S&P 500 as investors questioned the acquisition cost.

The announcement prompted a series of analyst downgrades.

Jefferies analyst James Heaney downgraded Roku to Hold from Buy while raising his price target to $160 to reflect the acquisition price.

Baird also downgraded Roku to Neutral with a $160 target, while William Blair removed the company from its conviction list, citing surprise at the timing given Roku’s recent growth trajectory.

Among technology stocks, Intel gained 6.51% to close at approximately $124.57.

Nvidia edged up 0.16% to roughly $205.19.

Super Micro Computer declined 4.72% to $30.46.

SpaceX Draws More Investor Attention

Fresh off the largest IPO in history, SpaceX continued attracting investor interest after Australian mining billionaire Gina Rinehart disclosed that her company, Hancock Prospecting, had accumulated a stake worth more than $1 billion.

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX), which surged approximately 19% during Friday’s market debut, gained another 5% Monday.

Analysts remain divided.

CFRA Research analyst Keith Snyder maintained a Sell rating with a $115 price target, significantly below current levels.

Meanwhile, Oppenheimer continues to rate the stock Outperform with a $190 target.

Oil Falls, Volatility Drops

The biggest move of the day occurred in commodities.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell roughly 5% to around $81 per barrel.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped to approximately $84 per barrel.

Traders are betting that reopening the Strait of Hormuz will eventually restore normal shipping patterns, although analysts caution that clearing shipping backlogs may take months.

Vice President JD Vance told CNBC on Monday that the administration expects the waterway to remain open on a toll-free basis over the long term.

Precious metals moved higher.

Gold gained approximately 1.6% to around $4,309 per ounce.

Silver surged more than 4%.

Meanwhile, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) — often referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge — dropped approximately 9% to 17.68, reflecting reduced geopolitical anxiety.

Bitcoin rose roughly 1.5% to near $65,400.

Global Markets Rally

The optimism extended well beyond the United States.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 5% to a record closing high of 69,317.50.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 5.2%.

European markets also advanced as investors welcomed the prospect of lower energy costs and reduced geopolitical risk.

Looking Ahead

Markets will be closed Friday for the Juneteenth holiday, creating a shortened trading week.

Investors now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve, where newly installed Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over his first policy meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning better than a 98% probability that policymakers leave interest rates unchanged.

With oil prices falling, volatility declining and one of the market’s largest geopolitical risks apparently easing, investors will be watching closely to see whether Monday’s rally marks the beginning of a broader advance or simply a relief bounce after months of uncertainty.

JBizNews Desk
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The world’s biggest sporting event is underway in the United States, but many businesses that expected an immediate economic windfall are still waiting.

Hotels, restaurants, airlines, and tourism operators across several host cities entered the 2026 FIFA World Cup expecting a surge of international visitors. While demand has increased, early results suggest the benefits are arriving unevenly.

“Demand is real and positive, but it’s not evenly distributed across host cities,” said Jay Wardle, president of travel-data company Sojern.

The expectation was straightforward.

More teams, more matches, and more fans would mean more spending.

FIFA has projected the tournament could contribute approximately $17.2 billion to U.S. GDP, while a study by Tourism Economics estimated international visitors would stay roughly 12 days, attend multiple matches, and spend more than $400 per day.

The reality has been more complicated.

Deutsche Bank estimates that even if the tournament attracts approximately 1.2 million international visitors, the impact on U.S. GDP would amount to only about 0.05% — meaningful but relatively small within the context of the overall American economy.

Travel data reveals substantial variation between host cities.

According to Sojern, flight bookings have increased approximately 13% in Houston, 10% in Dallas-Fort Worth, and around 8% in both Miami and New York.

Other cities have not experienced the same gains.

Seattle is reportedly tracking below last year’s pace, while several host locations outside the United States have also seen softer demand than anticipated.

One challenge has been affordability.

The expanded World Cup format created more matches and significantly more available seats. At the same time, high ticket prices, expensive travel costs, and visa-related hurdles have discouraged some international visitors.

Hotels have already adjusted expectations.

Several major properties have reduced room rates after the anticipated surge in foreign visitors failed to fully materialize.

Marriott International CEO Anthony Capuano recently indicated that the company expects only a modest increase in U.S. hotel revenue from the tournament.

Meanwhile, short-term rental operators appear to be benefiting.

Airbnb has stated that it expects the World Cup to become its largest event-driven demand period ever, surpassing even the 2024 Paris Olympics.

The spending is arriving.

It is simply flowing through different channels than many traditional hospitality operators expected.

The New York–New Jersey region remains one of the most closely watched markets.

Local organizers project approximately $3.3 billion in economic impact, with New Jersey officials estimating roughly $2 billion of that total could remain within the state.

Whether those projections ultimately prove accurate remains an open question.

For now, the verdict is simple: the World Cup’s economic impact is real, but the early benefits have been uneven and smaller than many businesses anticipated.

With several weeks of matches remaining, there is still time for demand to strengthen.

The tournament may yet deliver on its economic promise.

But for many businesses, the expected flood of spending has not arrived — at least not yet.

JBizNews Desk — Sports Business

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For the first time in a generation, women are sliding backward in the climb to the top of corporate America. New research from Grant Thornton finds women now hold 31% of senior leadership positions at U.S. companies, down from 34% a year earlier and 35% in 2024. After two decades of gradual progress, the upward trend has stalled — and in some cases, reversed.

The decline is most visible in executive suites, but the problem begins much earlier. McKinsey & Co. found in its annual Women in the Workplace report that women occupy only 29% of C-suite positions, unchanged from the previous year. Women remain underrepresented at every level of corporate leadership for the eleventh consecutive year.

The numbers tell the story. Women account for roughly 49% of entry-level employees, yet their representation declines with every promotion level. By the time companies reach senior executive ranks, fewer than one-third of leadership positions are held by women.

Researchers point to what they call the “broken rung” — the first promotion from an entry-level position into management. That initial step appears to be where many women begin falling behind. According to McKinsey, for every 100 men promoted into management, only about 80 to 90 women receive the same opportunity. The disparity is even larger for women of color. Some studies found that only about 60 Black women were promoted for every 100 men advancing into management roles.

Because leadership pipelines are built over years, missing that first promotion has long-term consequences. Fewer women in management today means fewer candidates available for director, vice president, and executive positions tomorrow.

What makes the trend notable is that it is not being driven by a lack of ambition. Surveys consistently show women remain highly committed to their careers. About 65% of women say their work is an important part of their identity, slightly higher than the percentage of men who say the same.

Researchers increasingly argue that the issue is not an ambition gap but a support gap.

One major change has been the disappearance of leadership-development programs that once helped identify and prepare future executives. Jane Edison Stevenson, Global Vice Chair at Korn Ferry, says many companies have scaled back or eliminated formal management-training tracks that previously helped promising employees gain the operational experience required for senior leadership positions.

Those programs were often expensive and required years to produce results. As employee turnover increased and workers became more likely to change employers, many companies concluded the investment was no longer worthwhile.

The loss of sponsorship may be equally important. Sponsorship differs from mentorship because sponsors actively advocate for promotions and career opportunities. Research shows sponsorship is among the strongest predictors of advancement.

Yet only about 31% of entry-level women report having a sponsor, compared with 45% of men. Without influential advocates pushing for advancement, women may be less likely to receive the assignments and visibility needed for promotion.

Some experts also point to a growing sense of complacency. As women became more visible in leadership roles over the past decade, companies may have assumed progress would continue automatically.

Edison Stevenson warns that advancement does not happen on its own. If organizations are not deliberate about developing leadership pipelines, gains can quickly erode.

The changing political environment may also be playing a role. Several corporations have reduced, renamed, or scaled back diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives amid increased scrutiny and legal challenges. Heather Spilsbury, CEO of 50/50 Women on Boards, says that trend likely contributed to some of the recent decline.

Still, researchers caution against attributing the entire slowdown to DEI debates. Women’s representation in executive roles began slipping in 2023, before many of the latest corporate policy changes occurred. Analysts have struggled to identify a single explanation for the reversal.

For businesses, the issue extends beyond workplace equity. Grant Thornton found companies with more balanced leadership teams were more likely to report stronger revenue growth and faster workforce expansion. Investors, employees, and job candidates increasingly examine leadership diversity when evaluating organizations.

There are also concerns about burnout. McKinsey found that approximately six in ten senior women report experiencing frequent burnout, the highest level recorded in the study’s history. Persistent workplace pressures combined with limited advancement opportunities may be contributing to retention challenges.

There are still signs of progress. The Fortune 500 currently includes 52 women CEOs, and that figure is expected to rise to 54 this year, approaching the record 55 women chief executives reached in mid-2025.

But researchers continue to return to the same conclusion: the future of women in corporate leadership may depend less on the executive suite and more on that first promotion into management. Unless companies repair the broken rung and rebuild sponsorship and development pathways, the gains of the past decade could continue slipping away one step at a time.

JBizNews Desk
Workplace & Leadership Bureau

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NEW YORK — America’s wealthiest investors are holding unusually large amounts of cash while quietly shifting billions of dollars into alternative assets, gold, infrastructure, and global opportunities.

According to UBS’s Global Family Office Report 2026, published on May 28, many of the world’s richest families are preparing for a prolonged period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty rather than betting on a smooth continuation of recent market gains.

One of the clearest examples is Warren Buffett.

Before stepping down as chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of last year, Buffett accumulated a record $381.7 billion in cash and short-term investments, choosing not to aggressively deploy capital despite a strong stock market.

He is far from alone.

A recent Goldman Sachs survey found that wealthy households with at least $1 million in investable assets keep roughly 20% of their net worth in cash or cash-equivalent investments, including Treasury bills and other short-term government securities.

The strategy reflects growing caution.

Many affluent investors believe stock valuations have become stretched after years of gains, while concerns about inflation, interest rates, government debt, and geopolitical instability continue to linger.

Unlike previous years, cash now offers meaningful returns. Higher interest rates allow investors to earn respectable yields while waiting for better opportunities.

Several prominent investors have already taken defensive steps.

Buffett’s cash reserves continued growing even as stock prices climbed, while billionaire investor Peter Thiel reportedly reduced exposure to some of the market’s hottest artificial-intelligence stocks, including Nvidia, despite the company’s strong performance.

The moves have fueled speculation that some wealthy investors believe parts of the AI-driven rally may have become overheated.

Yet UBS says the behavior should not be viewed as panic.

Instead, the report describes a broad repositioning of portfolios.

Approximately 60% of family offices surveyed said they expect to adjust their long-term asset allocation during the next year — the highest level UBS has ever recorded and nearly double the percentage reported just one year earlier.

Maximilian Kunkel, Chief Investment Officer for UBS Global Wealth Management, described the shift as a proactive effort to prepare for emerging opportunities while reducing risk.

The biggest destination for that money is alternative investments.

According to UBS, family offices now allocate approximately 42% of their portfolios to assets outside traditional stocks and bonds. These include:

• Private equity
• Private credit
• Commercial real estate
• Infrastructure
• Hedge funds

Many investors favor alternatives because they are less tied to daily stock-market swings and can provide diversification during periods of volatility.

The wealthier the investor, the greater the use of alternatives. Goldman Sachs found that roughly 80% of investors with more than $10 million in assets hold alternative investments.

Two traditional assets are also making a comeback.

Gold allocations are rising as investors seek protection against inflation, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the U.S. dollar. Average gold holdings remain relatively small but are increasing among family offices making portfolio changes.

Infrastructure investments are also attracting attention. Assets such as data centers, power grids, transportation networks, and utilities are increasingly viewed as stable long-term investments capable of generating steady cash flow.

Artificial intelligence remains the dominant investment theme.

According to UBS, 65% of family offices identified AI as one of their highest-priority investment opportunities, followed by energy and natural resources, as well as automation and robotics.

At the same time, confidence in the U.S. dollar appears to be weakening among many wealthy investors.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect the dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency to gradually decline. As a result, some investors are increasing exposure to currencies such as the euro and Swiss franc.

While cryptocurrencies continue to attract headlines, they remain only a small portion of most family-office portfolios.

The potential impact of these shifts is significant.

According to Deloitte, there are now more than 8,000 family offices worldwide managing approximately $3.1 trillion in assets. Even modest allocation changes by these investors can influence global markets.

When asked about their biggest concerns, 64% of family offices cited a major geopolitical conflict as their top risk over the next year. Another 49% pointed to a potential global trade war, while 39% identified inflation as a primary threat.

The message from the world’s wealthiest investors is not that a crash is imminent.

Instead, they appear to be preparing for a future that may be more volatile, more fragmented, and less predictable than the one markets enjoyed in recent years.

For now, the rich are not abandoning risk entirely. They are simply keeping more cash available, spreading investments across a wider range of assets, and positioning themselves for a world they believe may become increasingly uncertain.

Wall Street — JBizNews Desk

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WASHINGTON — In July, the U.S. government will begin depositing $1,000 into investment accounts for millions of American babies under a new program known as Trump Accounts.

The U.S. Treasury Department, which is overseeing the rollout, says accounts officially open on July 4, with registration already underway. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described the initiative as a way to connect ordinary Americans to the financial markets from birth.

But while supporters see the program as a long-term wealth-building tool, a growing number of economists and policy experts question whether it can meaningfully reduce wealth inequality.

Under the program, every U.S. citizen born between 2025 and 2028 qualifies for a one-time $1,000 government deposit, provided a parent or guardian opens the account. The funds are invested in a low-cost stock-market index fund, with annual fees capped at 0.1%, and cannot generally be accessed until the child reaches adulthood.

Families, employers, charities, and others may contribute up to $5,000 annually.

Supporters point to the power of long-term compounding. Government projections estimate that a child who receives only the initial deposit could see the account grow to approximately $15,000 over time.

Critics, however, argue that the larger issue is not the initial deposit but who can afford to keep contributing.

Families able to contribute the maximum $5,000 per year could potentially build accounts worth hundreds of thousands of dollars by adulthood. By contrast, children whose families cannot contribute additional funds may be left with little more than the original government contribution and investment growth.

According to government projections, an account funded at maximum contribution levels could reach approximately $742,000 by age 18, compared with roughly $15,000 for an account receiving only the initial deposit.

That gap has drawn concern from several researchers.

David Radcliffe, policy director at The New School’s Institute on Race, Power, and Political Economy, argues the structure primarily benefits families that already possess financial resources. Connecticut State Treasurer Erick Russell has similarly warned that wealthier households may be positioned to build significantly larger nest eggs than lower-income families.

Another concern involves participation.

Because parents must actively enroll their children, some experts worry that families facing financial hardship or lacking familiarity with investing may be less likely to sign up. The Aspen Institute has noted that automatic enrollment could have increased participation among lower-income households.

Questions have also been raised about whether the program can meaningfully address longstanding racial wealth disparities.

Federal data show substantial differences in median household wealth among demographic groups. Critics note that previous “baby bond” proposals sought to target larger benefits toward lower-income children, while Trump Accounts provide the same initial deposit regardless of family income.

Supporters counter that private-sector participation can significantly expand the program’s impact.

Secretary Bessent has launched a nationwide effort encouraging additional contributions, while several prominent business leaders and corporations have pledged support. Michael and Susan Dell have committed billions toward funding accounts for lower-income children, Ray Dalio has pledged tens of millions of dollars, and companies including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have announced matching contributions for eligible employees’ children.

Supporters argue that even modest investments can introduce millions of families to long-term saving and investing, creating opportunities that otherwise might not exist.

Critics acknowledge that the accounts can provide meaningful financial benefits but remain skeptical that a universal $1,000 deposit alone can significantly narrow the wealth gap.

Whether the program ultimately reduces inequality or reinforces existing differences may depend less on the government’s initial contribution and more on who continues contributing after the account is opened.

Washington — JBizNews Desk

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FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — JetBlue is betting heavily on one airport as it works to return to profitability.

“Lauderdale has been a star for us,” JetBlue President Marty St. George said this month, describing the airline’s rapidly expanding presence at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport.

The strategy includes significantly more flights, new international destinations, premium cabin offerings, and potentially a new airport lounge. For an airline still working through losses and restructuring efforts, Fort Lauderdale has become a centerpiece of its recovery plan.

On June 1, JetBlue raised its revenue outlook for the year, citing stronger-than-expected demand.

Part of the opportunity emerged from a competitor’s collapse.

Spirit Airlines, long the largest carrier at Fort Lauderdale, ceased operations on May 2 after years of financial struggles and mounting debt. While JetBlue had already been growing its presence at the airport, Spirit’s exit created an opening to capture additional gates, routes, and customers.

According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, JetBlue now controls approximately 36% of airport capacity, up from about 24% a year ago, making it the largest airline at Fort Lauderdale.

Between May and June alone, JetBlue increased capacity by roughly 5%, even as several competitors reduced service during Florida’s slower summer travel season.

The growth has been dramatic.

JetBlue is averaging approximately 106 daily departures from Fort Lauderdale this year, compared with roughly 68 flights per day a year earlier.

During peak winter travel periods, including Presidents Day and major school vacation weeks, the airline expects to operate around 150 daily flights, bringing Fort Lauderdale close to the scale of Boston Logan International Airport, one of JetBlue’s largest hubs.

Longer term, the airline has indicated it could eventually exceed 250 daily flights from the airport by 2027.

One of the most visible signs of JetBlue’s ambitions is its expanding lounge strategy.

The carrier entered the airport lounge business only recently, opening its first BlueHouse Lounge at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York. A second location is planned for Boston in 2026.

Fort Lauderdale could become the third.

St. George said the airline continues evaluating potential locations and believes the growing number of premium travelers makes a lounge a logical addition. Airport officials have also expressed support for the project.

International service is another major focus.

Fort Lauderdale has long served as a gateway to Latin America and the Caribbean, and JetBlue has been expanding aggressively. The airline recently announced new service to Caracas, Venezuela, while adding approximately 20 new routes from the airport over the past year.

The goal is to attract more international travelers and diversify revenue beyond traditional domestic leisure routes.

Premium offerings are increasingly central to that strategy.

JetBlue built its reputation on affordable fares but is now targeting higher-spending travelers through expanded Mint service, a new domestic first-class product known as Mini Mint, and enhanced loyalty and credit-card programs tied to future lounge access.

The airline says Fort Lauderdale has exceeded internal expectations, with revenue growth continuing even as capacity expands.

That growth is especially important because JetBlue remains unprofitable.

The airline reported a $319 million first-quarter loss in 2026, compared with a $208 million loss during the same period a year earlier. Higher fuel costs and operational challenges offset stronger passenger demand.

Revenue rose nearly 5% to $2.24 billion, while revenue per available seat mile increased 6.5%, near the high end of company guidance.

JetBlue ended the quarter with approximately $2.4 billion in cash, along with access to an unused $600 million credit facility.

The company’s broader turnaround initiative, known as JetForward, aims to generate approximately $310 million in additional earnings this year and between $850 million and $950 million by 2027.

Chief Executive Officer Joanna Geraghty has described the strategy as a combination of network optimization, cost reductions, and premium revenue growth.

According to St. George, all of JetBlue’s projected second-quarter growth is coming from Fort Lauderdale, where the airline expects seat revenue to rise between 7% and 11%.

JetBlue is also benefiting from its recently announced Blue Sky partnership with United Airlines, allowing customers to earn and redeem loyalty rewards across both carriers’ networks.

The airline’s largest competitor in South Florida remains American Airlines, which operates a major international hub at nearby Miami International Airport.

There are still risks.

Fuel prices remain volatile, the airline continues to operate at a loss, and passenger traffic at Fort Lauderdale declined slightly last year after years of strong growth.

JetBlue, Broward County, and airport officials are also completing a new five-gate Terminal 5 expansion designed to accommodate future growth.

For now, the airline is making a clear bet: that Fort Lauderdale can become the engine that powers JetBlue’s return to sustainable profitability.

Travel & Aviation — JBizNews Desk

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For years, one company has owned the chips that power artificial intelligence, and everyone else has paid up. That company is Nvidia. Now the most serious challenge to its grip is coming from a rival using Nvidia’s own moves against it: Google.

The clearest sign came in mid-May, when Blackstone, the investment giant and the world’s largest owner of data centers, said it would put $5 billion into a new cloud company built around Google’s in-house AI chips. Google Cloud chief executive Thomas Kurian said the venture would give companies more ways to rent computing power. With borrowed money added in, the project could eventually command about $25 billion in spending power — and it is aimed squarely at the business Nvidia has dominated.

To understand why this matters, start with the chips.

Nvidia sells graphics processing units, or GPUs, that train and run AI models. Demand has been so high for so long that Nvidia became one of the most valuable companies in the world. Google builds its own AI chips instead, called TPUs, short for tensor processing units. For years they mostly powered Google’s own products. Now Google is selling access to them to outside customers and directly targeting Nvidia’s core market.

Here is the clever part. Nvidia did not just sell chips. It helped customers pay for them.

Using its enormous balance sheet, Nvidia helped support financing for data-center projects, making it easier and cheaper for operators to raise money, build facilities and buy more Nvidia hardware. Google is now running a remarkably similar strategy.

One example sits on the southern shore of Lake Ontario near Niagara Falls. A data-center campus known as Lake Mariner is being developed by TeraWulf, a former bitcoin miner, together with cloud provider Fluidstack. Google has provided roughly $3.2 billion in financial guarantees backing the project. In return, it received warrants that increased its stake in TeraWulf to approximately 14%.

The computing power generated by the site will be rented to Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude chatbot, and powered by thousands of Google chips.

The strategy does not stop there.

Google has also backed an Anthropic project near Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and guaranteed roughly $1.4 billion in leases tied to a facility in Colorado City, Texas. The formula remains the same: help finance large AI infrastructure projects and then fill those facilities with Google’s hardware.

For local economies, the projects bring substantial investment. The broader Anthropic-Fluidstack infrastructure expansion is expected to create thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of permanent positions across multiple states, adding a major economic development angle to the AI boom.

The effort extends all the way to the top of the AI industry.

Google has agreed to invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic and reserve massive amounts of computing capacity for the company. The arrangement is part of a broader battle among technology giants to secure long-term AI customers. Anthropic has lined up computing resources from Google, Amazon and others as demand for AI processing power continues to surge.

The message from Google is increasingly clear. The company no longer wants to be viewed simply as a search engine and software provider. It wants to become one of the primary suppliers of the infrastructure powering the AI economy.

Nvidia, at least publicly, is not concerned.

Co-founder and chief executive Jensen Huang has repeatedly downplayed the threat posed by custom AI chips. During a widely followed technology podcast appearance in April, Huang argued that Nvidia’s ecosystem is far broader than any individual custom-chip effort can match. He also suggested that Anthropic remains Google’s only major outside TPU customer and questioned whether Google’s chips are actually cheaper when all costs are considered.

Analysts see meaningful change underway nonetheless.

Stacy Rasgon, a semiconductor analyst at Bernstein, said Google is being far more aggressive about monetizing its AI infrastructure than it was in previous years. The reason is straightforward: demand now exists on a scale that simply did not exist before.

Across the technology sector, one complaint dominates conversations among AI developers, cloud providers and investors: there is not enough computing power.

That shortage is shaping the entire industry.

As artificial intelligence evolves from a race over software models into a race over computing capacity, the companies supplying the chips gain enormous leverage. The ability to provide hardware, cloud services and financing has become just as important as the technology itself.

Google recognized that reality years ago when its engineers began designing custom processors for machine-learning workloads long before today’s AI explosion. What started as an internal project has now become the foundation of a major challenge to Nvidia’s dominance.

In the short term, the battle is a corporate showdown between two technology giants. In the longer term, it will help determine who controls the computing infrastructure that powers artificial intelligence.

For the first time in years, Nvidia faces a competitor with the capital, customer relationships, chip technology and patience needed to challenge its position. And rather than inventing a completely new strategy, Google is borrowing directly from the playbook that helped make Nvidia one of the world’s most powerful companies.

JBizNews Desk | Silicon Valley

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President Donald Trump said Saturday in a Truth Social post that he will appoint James M. McDonald as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, the federal prosecutor’s office that oversees many of the nation’s most significant Wall Street investigations and financial-crime cases.

McDonald is a longtime white-collar attorney who served on Trump’s legal team in his New York hush money case, and he is now poised to take over one of the most influential law-enforcement positions in the country.

The appointment fills a vacancy Trump created earlier this month. McDonald would succeed Jay Clayton, the current U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York and former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, whom Trump nominated on June 11 to serve as Director of National Intelligence. Clayton is expected to remain in the role until his Senate confirmation process is completed.

The Southern District of New York, often referred to as “Wall Street’s top cop,” holds jurisdiction over Manhattan, the center of American finance. The office regularly handles major securities-fraud investigations, insider-trading cases, public-corruption prosecutions, terrorism matters, and complex financial crimes.

Whoever leads the office has significant influence over how aggressively federal prosecutors pursue misconduct in the financial markets.

McDonald’s background makes him an unusual choice for the position.

He is currently a litigation partner at Sullivan & Cromwell LLP, one of the country’s most prominent law firms and the same firm where Clayton worked before entering government service.

Before returning to private practice, McDonald served nearly four years as Director of Enforcement at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where he oversaw investigations involving derivatives markets, commodities trading, and digital assets. Earlier in his career, he spent three years as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Southern District of New York, giving him firsthand experience inside the office he is now expected to lead.

McDonald also worked in the White House Counsel’s Office during the administration of President George W. Bush and previously clerked for Chief Justice John Roberts of the U.S. Supreme Court.

His enforcement résumé is especially notable because of its connection to cryptocurrency.

During his tenure at the CFTC, McDonald oversaw several high-profile cryptocurrency enforcement actions as regulators struggled to define the rules governing emerging digital-asset markets.

After returning to private practice, he advised clients navigating regulatory scrutiny in the crypto sector, including work involving BlockFi, the failed cryptocurrency lender. His firm also represented the bankruptcy estate of FTX, one of the largest collapses in financial-market history.

That experience may become increasingly important.

Congress has yet to pass comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation, leaving much of the regulatory landscape shaped by enforcement actions rather than clear statutory rules. The Southern District of New York has been at the center of many of the nation’s largest crypto-related prosecutions.

McDonald’s combination of regulatory, prosecutorial, and defense experience gives him a unique perspective on how those cases are likely to be handled.

His private-sector practice extends beyond digital assets.

McDonald helped represent Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, whose fraud and conspiracy case was dropped by the Justice Department earlier this year, and he also worked on matters involving Live Nation as the company fought antitrust challenges.

Most prominently, he served on the legal team representing Trump during the appeal of the former president’s New York criminal conviction.

That connection is likely to draw scrutiny.

The Southern District has long maintained a reputation for independence from political influence, regardless of which party controls the White House. Critics are expected to question whether appointing a former personal defense attorney to lead the office could create concerns about independence or perceived conflicts of interest.

Supporters argue McDonald’s extensive prosecutorial and regulatory background distinguishes him from purely political appointments and provides the experience necessary to run one of the country’s most demanding federal prosecutor’s offices.

Trump praised the selection in his announcement.

“I am confident that Jamie will deliver strong results for our Country,” the president wrote, predicting McDonald would earn the respect of judges, prosecutors, law-enforcement officials, and the legal community.

The office itself responded positively.

“The Office welcomes the President’s choice to lead the SDNY. Mr. McDonald is widely respected,” a spokesman for the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s Office said.

Unlike many political appointees who arrive with limited prosecutorial experience, McDonald enters the role with experience as a federal prosecutor, senior regulator, and private-sector litigator.

For Wall Street, the broader business takeaway is straightforward.

The individual about to oversee the nation’s most influential financial-crimes prosecutor’s office has spent years enforcing market regulations, advising major corporations, and defending clients accused of violating those same rules.

The decisions he makes regarding securities fraud, corporate misconduct, cryptocurrency enforcement, and market manipulation will help shape the regulatory climate for the financial institutions headquartered in Manhattan for years to come.

JBizNews Desk — New York

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The Federal Reserve opens a two-day policy meeting Tuesday that ends Wednesday, June 17, with a rate decision, and it doubles as the first real test of new Chair Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as the 17th chair of the central bank in May. Markets widely expect the Fed to leave its benchmark rate parked at 3.50%–3.75%, where it has sat since December. The drama isn’t the rate. It’s everything Warsh says and does around it.

Traders are pricing in better than a 98% chance of no move, according to CME FedWatch data. What’s changed is the direction of the next step. Fed funds futures now lean toward a rate hike, not a cut, as the more likely year-end outcome — a sharp reversal from the easing path investors expected just months ago. Stubborn inflation, fueled by the Iran war’s hit to energy prices, has frozen the Fed in place.

To see how far the mood has shifted, look back a year. In June 2025, the Fed’s own projections pointed to 75 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2026. Those cuts have effectively been shelved. The March 2026 projections lifted the core inflation forecast to 2.7%, the May reading came in hotter still, and the labor market is holding firm with unemployment near 4.4%.

The bigger question is whether Warsh blows up one of the Fed’s most-watched tools. Warsh has long criticized forward guidance, and reporting indicates he may begin rolling it back as soon as this meeting — potentially dropping the dot plot rate forecast and stripping easing-or-tightening bias language from the statement. The dot plot, released quarterly, shows where each official thinks rates should go. It lands Wednesday alongside a fresh Summary of Economic Projections and Warsh’s first press conference, his first big platform to set the tone of his chairmanship.

Wall Street strategists see continuity on rates and a shift in tone. “The Kevin Warsh era has begun,” said Phil Camporeale, Chief Investment Strategist at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, who expects the Fed on hold through year-end with a likely move away from an easing bias toward a neutral stance.

Warsh inherits a divided house. Minutes from the prior meeting showed four dissenting votes, the most since 1992, and a committee split over how the Iran war should shape policy. A faction wants to guard against energy-driven inflation; others worry a slowing job market needs relief. Former Chair Jerome Powell has agreed to remain on the board, a move meant to steady the transition.

For everyday Americans, the stakes are concrete. A hold keeps borrowing costs high. The 30-year mortgage has hovered near 6.5%, credit-card and auto-loan rates remain elevated, and savers earning yield on cash will keep it a while longer. With inflation back at a three-year high, the case for cheaper money has weakened sharply.

The timing is loaded. The May Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index both landed in the committee’s deliberation window last week, and May retail sales hit the wire Wednesday morning, the same day as the decision. So the Fed’s statement will be read against fresh data on how Americans are spending. If shoppers are still opening their wallets while prices climb, that complicates any argument for cuts.

The market reaction may hinge less on the number and more on the messaging. A dot plot that erases the lone remaining 2026 cut would read as hawkish; a missing dot plot entirely would be a structural change in how the Fed talks to markets. Either way, investors will parse Warsh’s words for whether the next move is up, down, or a long pause.

The trickiest part of the backdrop is the combination policymakers fear most: high inflation paired with slowing growth, the mix known as stagflation, which leaves the Fed without a clean option. Cutting risks fueling prices; hiking risks choking a softening economy.

For now, the most likely outcome is the least dramatic one on paper: no change, again. But under a new chair determined to run a leaner, quieter Fed, “no change” may come with the biggest communication shake-up in years — and that’s what will move mortgages, markets, and Main Street in the months ahead.

JBizNews Desk — Economy

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U.S. stock futures jumped and oil prices fell sharply in Sunday evening trading after President Donald Trump announced that the United States had reached a deal with Iran to end nearly four months of war. “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump wrote, adding that he had authorized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the U.S. naval blockade. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”

The announcement triggered an immediate reaction across financial markets that have been whipsawed since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose 0.76% to 7,491.75, a gain of nearly 57 points. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 283 points, or 0.55%, to 51,888. Nasdaq futures climbed 1.26%, up 374 points to 30,036.25. Futures on the Russell 2000, which tracks 2,000 smaller American companies, opened at a record high.

Oil, which had carried a significant war premium for months, dropped sharply. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 3.8% to below $84 a barrel, its lowest level since early March. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, slid 4.3% to about $81 a barrel.

Elsewhere, gold rose 1.55% to $4,304.60, Bitcoin gained roughly 1.8% to $65,600, and the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, plunged 9% to 17.68, reflecting a dramatic decline in investor anxiety.

The heart of the agreement is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes each day. The strait has been effectively closed since the war began, sending shock waves through global energy markets and driving up the cost of oil, gasoline, fertilizer, plastics, packaging materials, and transportation.

The resulting inflation pressures rippled across the broader economy, affecting everything from grocery prices to manufacturing costs.

Trump said the strait would officially reopen Friday, when crews begin clearing mines from the waterway. Even with an order to reopen, analysts caution that restoring normal shipping operations could take weeks or even months. Hundreds of vessels remain stranded on both sides of the chokepoint, and insurance and security costs remain elevated.

Consumers may eventually see relief at the gas pump.

Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, said gasoline prices could fall to roughly $3.75 per gallon by July 4 if the agreement holds and oil continues to retreat. He cautioned, however, that the coming days will be critical in determining whether the ceasefire proves durable.

Before the war, average gasoline prices in many parts of the country were below $3 per gallon. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and soaring shipping costs pushed prices significantly higher, placing additional strain on households and businesses alike.

The energy shock also contributed to broader inflation concerns. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices in May were 4.2% higher than a year earlier, marking the sharpest annual increase since April 2023.

Iran publicly confirmed the agreement.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said on state television that both sides had agreed to halt hostilities and begin negotiations toward a comprehensive long-term settlement within the next 60 days.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also confirmed the agreement, saying preliminary talks would be followed by technical negotiations and ultimately an official signing ceremony.

Still, investors remain cautious.

Markets have repeatedly rallied on reports of diplomatic progress only to reverse course following renewed violence. New warning signs emerged Sunday.

Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that marine traffic in the Persian Gulf would continue to be regulated jointly by Iranian and Omani authorities, a position that could conflict with Trump’s insistence on unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Israeli strikes in Lebanon underscored the fragile nature of regional stability.

Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, a prominent Iranian political figure and former Revolutionary Guard commander, argued that the attacks demonstrated that Washington either could not or would not fully enforce the agreement.

The deal arrives ahead of a critical week for financial markets.

The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday for the first policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in last month as the central bank’s 17th chairman.

Most economists expect the Fed to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.50% to 3.75% range.

Before the agreement, elevated energy prices complicated the inflation outlook and reduced expectations for future rate cuts. With oil prices now falling sharply, some of that pressure could ease.

Warsh, widely viewed as an inflation hawk, has indicated that he may take a different approach from his predecessor, Jerome Powell, including potentially holding fewer post-meeting press conferences. Investors will be looking closely for signals about the central bank’s outlook on inflation, growth, and future interest-rate policy.

“The Kevin Warsh era has begun,” said Phil Camporeale, chief investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, who expects the Fed to remain on hold through the rest of 2026 while adopting a more neutral policy stance.

For now, the market reaction reflects relief after months of uncertainty, military escalation, and economic disruption.

Whether that optimism lasts will depend on two simple questions that markets will answer in the days ahead:

Will oil begin flowing normally through the Strait of Hormuz again?

And will the guns remain silent?

JBizNews Desk
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COLUMBUS, Ohio — Bath & Body Works is in the middle of a high-stakes makeover aimed at a generation that never grew up shopping its mall stores, and the effort is beginning to show results just as the company reshuffles its top finance position.

On Friday, June 12, Chief Financial Officer Eva Boratto stepped down to become CFO of drug distributor Cencora, with company veteran Tom Javitch taking over as interim CFO.

The leadership change comes just two weeks after the retailer reported first-quarter results on May 27 that exceeded its own guidance and helped send the stock up roughly 14%, providing early evidence that its strategy to attract younger consumers may be gaining traction.

The strategy has a name: the Consumer First Formula.

Launched in late 2025 by Chief Executive Officer Daniel Heaf, who assumed the top role in May 2025, the initiative aims to make the brand more relevant to younger shoppers through updated products, modern marketing, and expanded distribution channels.

Following the first-quarter earnings release, Heaf struck a measured tone.

“Our results exceeded guidance, but remain below the standard our brand is capable of delivering,” he said.

The numbers offered encouragement.

First-quarter net sales totaled $1.38 billion, down 3% from a year earlier, but adjusted earnings of $0.32 per share exceeded Wall Street expectations.

Net income rose to $183 million, up from $105 million a year earlier.

The company also reaffirmed its full-year outlook and projected approximately $600 million in free cash flow.

That matters because Bath & Body Works has faced challenges in recent years, including removal from the S&P 500 and a prolonged decline in its share price.

Perhaps the clearest example of its push toward younger consumers is its expansion onto Amazon.

The company launched its first authorized Amazon U.S. storefront on February 20, 2026, and executives say the platform is already attracting the customers they are targeting.

Management told investors the Amazon channel shows “a meaningful skew toward younger and more affluent consumers,” while also generating higher average selling prices than the company’s own channels.

For a retailer historically built around in-store fragrance testing and impulse purchases, the shift is significant.

Heaf has argued that the traditional distinction between digital and physical retail is rapidly disappearing.

The company is also targeting younger consumers through college campuses.

After entering approximately 600 campus stores in 2025, Bath & Body Works has expanded to more than 1,000 locations through multi-year partnerships.

The initiative provides low-cost exposure to students while allowing the company to gather insights into younger consumer preferences.

Chief Merchandising Officer Betsy Schumacher said the goal is to help students “make their dorm rooms feel more like home.”

Marketing has also been redesigned for the social media era.

The company recently relied on influencers and podcast advertising to promote its White Barn Neutrals candle collection, which grew approximately 20% during the first quarter and attracted a younger customer base.

The creator-focused approach is expected to expand across the company’s stores, digital properties, and future product launches.

Physical stores remain central to the strategy.

The retailer’s new Gingham+ store concept, designed primarily for off-mall locations, includes scent bars, wider aisles, and a calmer shopping environment intended to encourage browsing and product discovery.

There are signs the brand is reconnecting with younger consumers.

A recent Piper Sandler survey of approximately 6,500 teenagers ranked Bath & Body Works as their favorite fragrance brand and one of their top beauty destinations, marking its first top-10 finish in that category since 2018.

Meanwhile, the company’s My Bath & Body Works Rewards program has reached a record 38 million members, providing a substantial base of repeat customers.

The broader business case is straightforward.

Fragrance products, candles, and personal-care items are often viewed as affordable luxuries—small indulgences consumers continue purchasing even during periods of economic uncertainty.

If Bath & Body Works can attract a customer through Amazon, a college campus, or a social-media campaign at age 16 or 20, it potentially gains a customer for decades.

The challenge is execution.

Expanding through Amazon and third-party channels can create pressure on margins and brand positioning, both of which have historically been strengths for the company.

To offset those costs, Bath & Body Works has launched its Fuel for Growth initiative, a cost-reduction program targeting approximately $250 million in savings over two years.

With a new finance chief taking the reins and early signs of momentum emerging, the company’s bet is clear: win over the next generation of consumers now and reshape how Bath & Body Works reaches customers for years to come.

JBizNews Desk — Retail

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LAKEWOOD, N.J. — Dime Community Bank opened the first branch in its 162-year history located outside New York State in Lakewood, following Apple Bank into one of the fastest-growing markets in New Jersey.

Dime, founded in 1864, opened at 500 Boulevard of the Americas. Apple Bank opened its Lakewood branch in April 2025 at 140 East Kennedy Boulevard, its third location in New Jersey. Both now operate alongside national lenders already established in the township, including TD Bank and JPMorgan Chase.

More banks may soon follow.

“More banks are flirting with Lakewood now and looking to open up here as well,” said Duvi Honig, founder and CEO of the Orthodox Jewish Chamber of Commerce. “We are proud of our achievements.”

The draw is a population growing faster than anywhere else in the state. Lakewood recorded the largest population increase of any municipality in New Jersey between 2010 and 2020, expanding 45.6%, according to U.S. Census data. The Census Bureau estimated the township’s population at 141,985 residents in 2024, making it the fourth-most-populous municipality in New Jersey. Ocean County has also ranked among the nation’s faster-growing counties.

Behind that growth is one of the highest birth rates in America. Lakewood posted a birth rate of 36.1 births per 1,000 residents in 2023, the highest of any municipality in New Jersey and more than three times the statewide average of 10.9. The township recorded 5,420 births in 2024, more than any municipality in the state and approximately 5.3% of all births in New Jersey, exceeding Newark’s 3,895 births and Jersey City’s 3,842 births. Nearly half of Lakewood’s residents are under age 18.

That young and expanding population sits atop a substantial commercial economy. According to federal economic data, Ocean County generated approximately $31.7 billion in economic output during 2024, up from roughly $24 billion in 2020.

The Lakewood Industrial Park, one of the largest industrial complexes in New Jersey, spans more than 2,000 acres and approximately 200 buildings. The complex is associated with more than 10,000 jobs and approximately $2 billion in annual business activity, while serving as Lakewood’s largest commercial taxpayer.

Commercial growth has accelerated alongside residential expansion. Steven Reinman, Lakewood’s director of economic and industrial development, has described the township’s transformation into a major corporate and professional hub fueled by substantial Class A office development. Commercial real estate brokerage Avison Young reported that Ocean County maintained a 5.8% office availability rate, among the lowest in New Jersey.

Major employers continue to anchor the local economy, including Church & Dwight, which manufactures household brands such as Nair and Orajel at its Lakewood facility.

For banks, the attraction is straightforward: a rapidly growing population, large families, active real estate development, thousands of small businesses, and a significant nonprofit sector generate ongoing demand for deposits, mortgages, commercial lending, and treasury management services.

Dime, a New York State-chartered bank with approximately $15 billion in assets, cited Lakewood’s expanding commercial base in selecting the township for its first location outside New York. Apple Bank similarly pointed to the area’s growing residential and business communities when it entered the market last year.

State leaders have also recognized the region’s economic importance. In 2018, State Senator Robert Singer introduced legislation designating the second Monday of May as New Jersey Economic Development Day. The initiative originated with the Orthodox Jewish Chamber of Commerce and Duvi Honig and was signed into law in 2019, creating an annual statewide focus on economic growth, business expansion, and job creation.

Local officials expect the expansion to continue, pointing to an Ocean County population that could eventually surpass one million residents, with Lakewood serving as a principal driver of that growth.

For now, Dime’s arrival — following Apple Bank’s move into the township last year — reinforces what an increasing number of financial institutions already see: Lakewood has become one of New Jersey’s most attractive banking markets, and the next bank announcement may not be far behind.

JBizNews Desk

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WASHINGTON, June 11 — The cost of buying a home edged higher again this week, according to Freddie Mac, which reported Thursday that the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.52% from 6.48% a week earlier.

The average rate remains below the 6.84% recorded a year ago, but the latest increase adds to a gradual climb that continues to challenge homebuyers and sellers alike.

The average 15-year fixed mortgage also increased, rising to 5.84% from 5.79% last week.

Inflation and Energy Prices Drive Rates Higher

Behind the move is a combination of inflation pressures and rising energy costs.

Mortgage rates have moved higher since the conflict with Iran intensified earlier this year, contributing to increases in oil prices. Higher energy costs feed directly into inflation, and inflation expectations influence long-term borrowing costs, including mortgages.

Recent economic data reinforced those concerns.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer inflation reached 4.2% in May, the highest level in three years, while wholesale inflation climbed to 6.5%, its hottest pace in nearly four years.

Home Sales Show Signs of Life

Despite higher borrowing costs, there was some encouraging news in Freddie Mac’s report.

The company noted that stronger hiring and steady employment have helped existing-home sales reach a five-month high, suggesting some buyers are no longer waiting for rates to fall before entering the market.

That shift could be significant for a housing market that has remained largely frozen for much of the past two years.

Many buyers and sellers have remained on the sidelines, hoping for lower rates and improved affordability.

Hopes for Lower Rates Fade

Homeowners entered 2026 with optimism.

The average 30-year mortgage rate began the year near 5.99% following three Federal Reserve rate cuts during late 2025.

At the time, many analysts expected borrowing costs to continue moving lower.

Instead, inflation concerns and higher energy prices reversed that trend.

Mortgage rates have fluctuated sharply throughout the year and remain well above levels many prospective buyers hoped to see.

Higher for Longer

Most major housing forecasts now call for mortgage rates to remain elevated through the remainder of 2026.

The Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae both project 30-year mortgage rates will stay roughly between 6.3% and 6.5% through year-end.

That outlook reflects what economists increasingly describe as a “higher-for-longer” interest-rate environment.

The Real Cost to Families

For households, even small rate increases can have major financial consequences.

The difference between a 6% mortgage and a 6.5% mortgage can add thousands of dollars in interest over the life of a loan and significantly increase monthly payments.

Many buyers continue debating whether to wait for rates to fall before purchasing a home.

However, housing economists note there is a risk in waiting.

If mortgage rates decline substantially, many sidelined buyers could rush back into the market simultaneously, increasing competition and driving home prices higher.

In some cases, those higher prices can offset the savings gained from a lower mortgage rate.

Federal Reserve in Focus

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

Financial markets currently see little chance of an immediate rate cut, and some traders are even pricing in the possibility of another rate increase before the end of the year.

As long as inflation remains elevated and energy prices stay under pressure, mortgage rates are likely to remain near current levels.

For millions of Americans hoping for cheaper borrowing costs, meaningful relief may still be some distance away.

JBizNews Desk — Washington

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BlackRock moved Friday, June 12, 2026, to limit how much money investors can pull out of its largest private-credit fund, as a wave of jittery shareholders — worried about loan losses, a string of fraud cases, and whether borrowers can survive the upheaval from artificial intelligence — rushed for the exits faster than the fund will let them leave.

In a shareholder letter and regulatory filing, the firm said investors in the HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND) asked to redeem about 13.3% of the fund’s shares in the latest quarter, up from 9.3% the quarter before. BlackRock said it would buy back only 5% — roughly $620 million — and cash out the rest on a prorated basis.

And this is not just a BlackRock problem.

In the past two weeks alone:

• Blackstone capped withdrawals on its flagship private-credit fund.
• Cliffwater turned away most investors seeking to exit its roughly $31 billion fund.
• Partners Group restricted redemptions from an $8.6 billion vehicle.

Across the roughly $2 trillion private-credit market, the same concern is spreading: the long period of easy money and steady growth may be ending, and investors are discovering that getting their money back is not always as simple as it appeared when they invested.

It is the second consecutive quarter that BlackRock’s HLEND fund has hit its redemption limit and restricted withdrawals. The increase in redemption requests — roughly half again as large as the previous quarter — is one of the clearest signs yet that investor anxiety is growing rather than fading.

Why Investors Cannot Get Their Money Immediately

Private-credit funds make loans directly to companies instead of buying bonds that trade on public markets.

Because those loans are difficult to sell quickly, many private-credit funds only allow investors to withdraw a limited amount of money each quarter — typically no more than 5% of fund assets.

When investors ask for more than that, fund managers impose what the industry calls a gate. Investors receive a portion of their money immediately while the remainder stays in the fund until future redemption periods.

That is exactly what BlackRock did this quarter.

A Key Fund in BlackRock’s Private-Market Strategy

The HPS Corporate Lending Fund sits at the center of BlackRock’s push into private markets.

BlackRock acquired the business through its approximately $12 billion purchase of HPS Investment Partners last year, a deal that significantly expanded the firm’s presence in private lending.

Today, the fund manages an investment portfolio approaching $25 billion, making it one of the largest buyers of private corporate loans in the United States.

BlackRock imposed similar limits elsewhere.

The firm also capped withdrawals at its smaller BlackRock Private Credit Fund (BDEBT) after investors requested withdrawals equal to approximately 5.3% of assets. BlackRock approved the maximum 5%, or roughly $83 million.

A third vehicle, the HPS Corporate Capital Solutions Fund, received lighter redemption requests of approximately 4.7%.

Why Investors Are Nervous

Several concerns are hitting the market simultaneously:

• Rising concerns about future loan losses
• High-profile fraud cases within parts of the credit market
• Questions about how artificial intelligence will affect borrowers
• Concerns about weaker software companies facing AI disruption
• Expectations that corporate defaults could increase
• Refinancing risk as older low-interest loans mature into a higher-rate environment

Many investors worry that companies which borrowed heavily during the era of cheap money may struggle as those obligations come due.

What It Means for Everyday Investors

The private-credit industry has attracted large numbers of individual investors over the last several years.

Financial advisers frequently promoted the funds because they offered:

• Steady income
• Higher yields
• Returns that often moved independently from stock markets

The redemption restrictions serve as a reminder that higher yields often come with reduced liquidity.

Unlike stocks or publicly traded bonds, the underlying loans cannot be sold quickly. Investors who want their money back may need to wait through multiple redemption periods before receiving the full amount.

BlackRock Remains Optimistic

Despite the redemption pressure, BlackRock said it expects new investor commitments to offset withdrawals paid so far this year.

The firm also noted that higher interest rates could support future returns.

According to BlackRock, the HPS Corporate Lending Fund has generated annualized returns of approximately 10.2% since launch.

Chief Executive Larry Fink has told investors that large institutional buyers — including pension funds and insurance companies — continue to add capital on a net basis, even as some financial advisers and retail investors pull back.

Market Reaction

Investors appeared largely unfazed by the news.

Shares of BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) rose more than 1% Friday, suggesting Wall Street views the redemption pressure as manageable for now.

The broader question facing the private-credit industry is whether these redemption restrictions are temporary growing pains or the first sign of a more significant stress test for one of the fastest-growing corners of modern finance.

JBizNews Desk — New York

© JBizNews.com All Rights Reserved. Reproduction or distribution without written permission is prohibited.

The Trump administration moved Wednesday, June 10, 2026, to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for prediction markets, proposing rules that would allow most sports-related contracts to continue while banning contracts regulators believe are most vulnerable to manipulation.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a 267-page proposed rule outlining which event contracts would be permitted and which would be prohibited. The proposal represents the agency’s first formal attempt to regulate a rapidly growing industry that has blurred the line between financial markets and sports betting.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the goal is to provide clear rules for the industry while protecting market integrity and encouraging innovation.

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to future events.

Participants essentially purchase “yes” or “no” positions on whether something will happen, with contract values changing as market sentiment shifts.

Over the past year, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded aggressively into sports-related contracts, creating products that often resemble traditional sports betting.

The new proposal would largely allow that activity to continue.

What Would Be Allowed?

Under the proposed rules, prediction markets could continue offering contracts tied to:

• Game winners and losers
• Final scores
• Point spreads
• Tournament advancement
• Team statistics
• Player statistics
• Season-long performance outcomes

In practice, many of these contracts resemble traditional sportsbook products such as:

• Moneyline bets
• Point spreads
• Over/under totals
• Player prop wagers

The CFTC argues these markets provide value beyond gambling by generating information that may be useful to:

• Broadcasters
• Advertisers
• Sponsors
• Fantasy sports companies
• Analytics firms
• Sports data businesses

What Would Be Banned?

The proposal draws a firm line around contracts regulators believe are easiest to manipulate.

The CFTC would prohibit contracts involving:

• A single pitch in baseball
• One shot in hockey
• One foul in basketball
• Individual game plays
• Player injuries
• Officiating decisions
• Physical altercations during games
• Youth sports below the college level, including high school athletics

According to the agency, these contracts raise significant public-interest concerns because individual participants may have greater ability to influence outcomes.

Why Is a Financial Regulator Involved?

The key legal issue is that the CFTC treats prediction-market contracts as financial products rather than traditional wagers.

Under the Commodity Exchange Act, many event contracts are classified similarly to swaps and derivatives, placing them under federal commodities regulation.

That distinction has allowed prediction-market operators to offer sports-related contracts nationwide, including in states where traditional sports betting remains illegal.

The companies argue they are operating federally regulated financial markets rather than sportsbooks.

Growing Battle With States

That legal position has triggered opposition from state gaming regulators and tribal gaming operators.

Critics argue that prediction markets are effectively sports betting under another name and should be regulated under existing state gambling laws.

State officials have warned that allowing federally regulated prediction markets to operate nationwide could undermine:

• State licensing systems
• Tax revenues
• Tribal gaming agreements
• Consumer protections

The CFTC has largely supported the platforms in ongoing legal disputes, defending their ability to offer contracts under federal law.

Some members of Congress have also questioned whether the agency is stretching its authority beyond what lawmakers originally intended.

Industry Reaction

Initial responses from major operators were measured.

A spokesperson for Polymarket said the company welcomes greater regulatory clarity and intends to participate in the public comment process.

Kalshi said it was reviewing the proposal and had not yet reached conclusions regarding the details.

Why It Matters

The stakes extend far beyond sports fans.

A permanent federal framework could remove significant legal uncertainty hanging over the industry and potentially accelerate growth.

Clear rules could attract:

• New investors
• Additional users
• Institutional capital
• Media partnerships
• Sports-league relationships

At the same time, regulators hope restrictions on easily manipulated contracts will reduce the risk of scandals that could damage confidence in the broader market.

What Happens Next?

The proposal now enters a 90-day public comment period.

During that time:

• Prediction-market operators
• Sports leagues
• Gaming regulators
• Tribal gaming organizations
• Investors
• Members of the public

will have an opportunity to submit feedback before the CFTC drafts a final rule.

With multiple lawsuits still working through the courts and states continuing to challenge federal authority over sports-related contracts, the battle over who controls America’s rapidly growing prediction-market industry is far from over.

JBizNews Desk — Washington

© JBizNews.com All Rights Reserved. Reproduction or distribution without written permission is prohibited.

Americans and big investors are putting money into U.S. stocks faster than ever, and most of that cash is heading toward technology. Bank of America said Friday, in its closely watched weekly report on where money is moving, that U.S. stock funds drew record amounts of new money, with tech leading the way. The report, written by strategist Michael Hartnett and based on figures from EPFR Global, tracks how much money goes into and out of funds around the world each week.

To see how strong the run has been: in the week through June 10, technology funds pulled in a record $12.3 billion, part of $31.5 billion that flowed into U.S. and global stock funds. That capped an 11-week stretch of money moving into American stocks — the longest such streak since December 2025. Much of it chased computer-chip companies: the iShares Semiconductor ETF took in about $2.9 billion in a single week, and a leveraged fund that bets on the S&P 500 drew close to $3 billion.

Here is the twist that makes this week’s record unusual. At the very moment investors are handing over more money than ever, the biggest technology companies are selling them a flood of brand-new stock.

That matters because new shares soak up demand. Normally heavy buying with a fixed supply pushes prices up. But tech is issuing stock at a pace not seen in years. SpaceX went public on June 12, trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at $135 a share, in a listing valuing it near $1.75 trillion — the largest U.S. stock debut ever. OpenAI and Anthropic, two of the world’s most valuable private companies, have both confirmed plans to go public. Analysts expect the three to raise roughly $200 billion between them.

It isn’t only newcomers. Alphabet, the parent of Google, has said it plans to raise about $80 billion by selling new stock, and Meta is reported to be weighing a similar move. Both want cash to build the giant data centers that power artificial intelligence — and selling shares lets them raise it without taking on more debt.

For everyday savers, the surge has a direct connection. Capital Economics notes that U.S. companies outside the financial industry began issuing more stock than they bought back early this year, the first time since 2021. The firm also offers a caution: big jumps in new stock sales have tended to appear near the late stages of past market booms.

There is also a new source of buying coming straight from Washington. Starting July 4, the federal government begins seeding “Trump Accounts” — investment accounts for children that open with a $1,000 deposit and steer the money into low-fee funds tracking the broad stock market. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the program could push around $12 billion a year into those funds, rising toward $21 billion if families add the maximum. The money is automatic and stays put for years.

The rise has already lifted household wealth. By Bank of America’s count, the value of stocks owned by U.S. families has climbed about $6 trillion so far in 2026, after gains of roughly $10 trillion in 2025 and $9 trillion the year before. When portfolios swell, people tend to feel richer and spend more, which feeds back into the wider economy.

Not everyone is comfortable. Bank of America’s “Bull & Bear” gauge, which measures how greedy or fearful investors are, has been flashing a sell warning for several weeks — a level the bank reads as a sign buying has run hot. Hartnett has compared today’s market to 1994, when a long calm period ended abruptly once the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates.

For now, the money keeps coming. The bigger test arrives later this year, when OpenAI and Anthropic aim to complete their listings and Alphabet and Meta sell their new shares — adding hundreds of billions of dollars in fresh stock for buyers to absorb.

What These Deals Actually Mean for Your 401(k)

If you own an S&P 500 or total-market index fund, you don’t buy these stocks yourself — the fund does it for you, automatically, based on each company’s size. So a wave of giant tech listings sounds like it should pour your retirement money straight into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. The reality is more gradual, and smaller than the headlines suggest.

Two things hold it back. First, index funds only count the shares a company actually sells to the public, not the ones founders and early backers keep. At launch, these firms are floating only about 4% to 5% of their stock, so their weight in your fund starts tiny no matter how huge the valuation.

Second, getting into the S&P 500 isn’t automatic. A company has to be profitable over recent quarters and gets picked by a committee, which can take time. Broad total-market and Nasdaq funds tend to pick up new listings sooner, but still in proportion to those small public floats.