The Federal Reserve is now widely expected to raise interest rates Wednesday, a move that would immediately raise the cost of borrowing across mortgages, business loans, credit cards and commercial real estate.

A new Reuters poll released Monday found 86 of 101 economists expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point, taking the federal-funds target from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. Futures markets are pricing close to a 90% probability of a hike.

If the Fed moves, it would be the first rate increase since July 2023.

The reason is straightforward: inflation stopped cooperating.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% over the year.

Gasoline alone jumped 3.9% in one month, accounting for more than one-third of the entire monthly CPI increase.

And that report was taken before oil surged again Monday.

Brent crude climbed above $108 a barrel as renewed Middle East attacks disrupted Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and kept pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That means another wave of energy costs is still working its way toward trucking companies, airlines, manufacturers and eventually consumers.

For a business, a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase can sound small.

It is not small when it hits trillions of dollars of debt.

A company refinancing a $10 million floating-rate loan at an interest rate that rises by 0.25 percentage point pays roughly $25,000 more a year in interest, before considering any additional repricing from higher Treasury yields or bank spreads.

On $100 million of debt, the same quarter point represents $250,000 a year.

And Fed policy does not operate in isolation.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.97% Monday, after recently touching almost 5%, while markets are pricing more than 90 basis points of additional U.S. tightening over the coming year.

That flows directly into mortgage rates, commercial real estate financing, corporate bonds and the government’s own cost of borrowing.

The pressure on the Fed has been building for months.

At its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee left rates unchanged, but three policymakers voted for a quarter-point increase. The official minutes show Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan wanted rates raised at that meeting.

Now the data have moved closer to their position.

The Fed’s next meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday, September 16. The policy decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.

But Wall Street will be watching something beyond whether the Fed raises rates.

The bigger question is what comes next.

More than half of economists in the Reuters poll now expect at least one additional increase by March 2027. Markets have also begun pricing the possibility of several increases over the coming year if inflation remains stubborn.

That changes the business calculation.

For years, companies, homebuyers and investors were waiting for borrowing costs to fall.

Now they may need to prepare for the opposite.

A quarter-point increase Wednesday would not make gasoline cheaper. It would not reopen an oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia or move more tankers through Hormuz.

What it can do is stop an energy shock from turning into a broader inflation cycle — where higher fuel costs lead to higher freight costs, higher wages, higher prices and eventually permanently higher inflation expectations.

That is the gamble facing the Federal Reserve.

Raise rates and borrowing becomes more painful.

Do nothing while inflation remains above target and the bond market could punish the economy anyway with even higher long-term yields.

By Wednesday afternoon, businesses may no longer be asking when interest rates are coming down.

They may be asking how high they are going next.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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Wall Street returned from the Labor Day weekend with a sharp split inside the market: energy and AI hardware rose while software, healthcare and the Dow fell hard.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 620 points, or 1.2%, to roughly 52,787. The S&P 500 lost 0.58% to 7,673.94, and the Nasdaq Composite declined about 0.3% to roughly 26,421. It was the Dow’s worst session in nearly three weeks. 

Two forces drove the selling.

First, Brent crude briefly reached $99.46 after Houthi attacks struck Saudi energy facilities, before settling at $97.92 a barrel. U.S. crude settled at $93.03, its highest level in nearly three months. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed around 4.80%, increasing borrowing-cost pressure just days before the final inflation reports preceding the Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision. Markets are pricing roughly a 60% probability of a rate increase. 

Second, investors again questioned whether artificial intelligence will destroy portions of the traditional software business. Salesforce fell roughly 4%, while ServiceNow and Intuit each lost around 5% as OpenAI’s new GPT-6 Astra renewed fears that businesses may replace expensive specialized software with increasingly capable general-purpose AI. The S&P software and services index fell for a second consecutive session. 

That is becoming one of the most important divisions in the stock market: AI infrastructure companies are being rewarded for building the technology while some software companies are being punished because investors fear the same technology could replace them.

Main Street — Small Businesses Say Sales Are Getting Harder

America’s small businesses became less optimistic in August.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.1 points to 98.7, down from 99.8 in July, although it remains slightly above its 52-year average of 98.0. 

The headline number was not the most important part.

A net 9% more businesses reported declining rather than increasing sales during the previous three months, the weakest reading since November 2025. Expectations for better overall business conditions fell five points, while the share of owners planning to create jobs dropped three points to a net 17%. 

Inflation also moved back up the worry list. Sixteen percent of owners named inflation as their single biggest problem, up two points from July.

There was one meaningful piece of relief: labor costs as the biggest business problem fell to their lowest level since March 2021.

Why it mattered today: Main Street is describing a different economy from the one suggested by Friday’s strong national jobs report. Employers are not collapsing, but customers are becoming harder to capture and businesses are growing more cautious about hiring and expansion.

That matters especially if oil and interest rates continue rising simultaneously.

AI Chips — Amazon Could Buy $60 Billion From Qualcomm

Qualcomm landed one of the largest potential AI infrastructure orders yet.

Amazon can purchase as much as $60 billion of Qualcomm AI data-center chips and related products under a new long-term agreement.

Qualcomm is giving Amazon warrants worth roughly $4 billion, allowing it to purchase as many as 25 million Qualcomm shares at $161.26 apiece as product-purchase targets are reached. Qualcomm shares rose following the announcement. 

The arrangement covers custom AI processors and optical-connectivity technology needed to move enormous quantities of data between chips inside AI data centers.

For Qualcomm, this is an attempt to build a second enormous business as it prepares eventually to lose Apple’s modem business and faces softer smartphone demand.

The company is targeting $15 billion in annual data-center chip revenue by 2029.

Why it mattered today: Amazon is actively creating alternatives to Nvidia rather than accepting permanent dependence on one dominant AI-chip supplier.

That means AI’s next phase is increasingly about custom chips, networking and bargaining power, not simply buying more Nvidia GPUs.

Artificial Intelligence — Meta Launches an Agent That Can Spend Your Money

Meta launched Muse, an autonomous AI assistant capable of doing something fundamentally different from a conventional chatbot.

It can act.

Muse can connect with email, calendars, shopping services, payments, health applications and smart-home systems. Meta says it can book travel, send emails, make payments and even help sell a car on a user’s behalf. It launches initially in the United States through a dedicated app and WhatsApp. 

The business opportunity is enormous.

If AI agents begin actually making purchases rather than merely recommending products, companies may increasingly be selling to algorithms acting for customers.

But the risks are equally large.

Internal testing reportedly uncovered incidents involving unexpected data transfers, connection problems and exposure of sensitive personal information. Meta says the product meets its safety and privacy standards while acknowledging agents can make mistakes. 

Why it mattered today: AI is moving from answering questions to controlling transactions.

For businesses, that potentially changes advertising, e-commerce, customer acquisition and payments. For consumers, it raises a much bigger question: how much authority should software receive to act with your money and personal information?

U.S.-China Technology — Washington Accuses Chinese AI Firms of Copying American Models

The U.S. government accused six Chinese AI companies, including DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and Alibaba, of using American AI systems to accelerate development of their own models.

Officials said Chinese firms used a technique known as distillation, feeding outputs from American systems into smaller models to reproduce capabilities more cheaply and quickly. They named technology originating from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and SpaceX among the systems allegedly targeted. 

U.S. officials went further, saying the activity occurred likely with Chinese government awareness and warning that the resulting technology could strengthen Chinese military and cyber capabilities.

The accusation arrives only weeks before the planned Trump-Xi meeting later this month.

Why it mattered today: The AI competition between the United States and China is rapidly becoming an intellectual-property and national-security battle.

Exporting advanced chips is one issue.

Preventing a competitor from extracting the capabilities of an already-trained American AI model may prove significantly harder.

Autos & Manufacturing — Washington Tells Ford Its China Dependence Has Gone Too Far

The Trump administration sharply criticized Ford over its relationships with Chinese companies including CATL, Geely and BYD.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told Ford CEO Jim Farley that the company’s continued reliance on Chinese technology poses national-security concerns. 

The administration specifically highlighted Ford’s licensing of CATL battery technology for its Michigan battery plant, its partnership with Geely in Spain and discussions with BYD involving hybrid-vehicle components.

Officials also criticized Ford for waiting until 2030 to move production of its Lincoln Nautilus from China to the United States.

This is increasingly becoming the central argument surrounding American industrial policy.

Washington is no longer concentrating only on where the final automobile is assembled.

It is scrutinizing who supplies the battery technology, software, electronics and underlying intellectual property.

Why it mattered today: Manufacturers can no longer assume that building the final product in America will satisfy Washington if strategically important technology inside that product still comes from China.

Cybersecurity — One Attack Just Knocked Boston Scientific Off Its Annual Forecast

Boston Scientific warned that a cybersecurity attack discovered August 25 caused enough disruption that the medical-device company is now unlikely to achieve its previous third-quarter and full-year sales and profit guidance.

The attack disrupted networks used for manufacturing, order processing and other operations around the world. Major distribution centers and most manufacturing operations have restarted, but the company still cannot quantify the full financial damage. 

Before the attack, Boston Scientific expected full-year adjusted earnings of $3.28 to $3.32 a share and revenue growth of 5.5% to 6.5%.

Shares fell sharply Tuesday.

Why it mattered today: Cybersecurity has become an operating-cost issue, not simply an IT problem.

A company can have customers, factories and products ready to go and still lose revenue because the digital systems connecting orders, manufacturing and shipping are unavailable.

For business owners, the lesson is straightforward: cyber insurance and backup systems belong in the same risk conversation as property insurance and supply-chain continuity.

Broadband & AI Infrastructure — Verizon Orders 80 Million Miles of Fiber

Verizon signed a multibillion-dollar agreement with Corning covering more than 80 million miles of high-density optical fiber and connectivity products between 2027 and 2032. 

The fiber will support Verizon’s residential and business broadband expansion.

But AI is an important part of the economics.

Hyperscale data centers require enormous bandwidth connecting campuses, servers and network infrastructure. The computing boom therefore creates demand far beyond chips and electricity.

It requires fiber.

Why it mattered today: Investors increasingly need to look beyond Nvidia to understand where AI money is flowing.

The buildout is creating business for utilities, construction companies, fiber manufacturers, electrical-equipment companies, cooling suppliers and networking firms.

Corning is another example of an older industrial company finding itself directly inside the AI capital-spending boom.

New Jersey & Wall Street — Holtec Seeks a $10.2 Billion Valuation

Camden, New Jersey-based Holtec launched plans for an initial public offering that could value the nuclear-technology company at as much as $10.2 billion.

Holtec plans to offer 50 million shares at between $15 and $18, potentially raising as much as $900 million. 

The offering arrives as nuclear power is being revalued because AI data centers and other electricity-intensive industries require enormous quantities of reliable power.

It is also an important test of the fall IPO market.

Strong trading after Holtec’s offering could encourage additional private companies to move ahead with listings before year-end.

Why it mattered today: Nuclear power has moved from an industry many investors considered stagnant to one increasingly linked directly to America’s AI and electricity strategy.

Holtec is attempting to put a multibillion-dollar public-market valuation on that change.

Pharmaceuticals — Novartis Loses $32 Billion in One Day

Novartis suffered its worst one-day stock decline on record, dropping 10.9% in Switzerland and erasing approximately $32 billion in market value.

The trigger was failure of a late-stage study of del-desiran, an experimental treatment for myotonic dystrophy. 

The failure is particularly painful because Novartis obtained the drug through its approximately $12 billion acquisition of Avidity.

Analysts had previously estimated peak annual sales of roughly $3.1 billion for the treatment.

It is also Novartis’ second significant clinical disappointment within days, putting additional pressure on CEO Vas Narasimhan’s acquisition-driven strategy for replacing revenue from drugs approaching patent expiration.

Why it mattered today: Pharmaceutical acquisitions are increasingly priced around drugs that have not yet reached the market.

A single failed clinical trial can therefore destroy not only the expected sales of a product but billions of dollars of assumed acquisition value overnight.

Key Market Movers

Intel was one of Tuesday’s strongest large-cap stocks, jumping close to 10% amid renewed enthusiasm around AI and data-center chips. Qualcomm gained roughly 3% after unveiling the Amazon agreement. Energy companies including Marathon Petroleum and Occidental Petroleum advanced as oil rose. 

On the other side, Salesforce fell roughly 4%, ServiceNow and Intuit about 5%, reflecting fears that generative AI will disrupt established software businesses. Novartis plunged 10.9% in Europe and its U.S.-listed shares fell even more sharply, while Boston Scientific declined after its cyberattack warning. Crypto-related names also weakened as bitcoin slipped below $80,000, with Coinbase and Strategy falling. 

The market’s message Tuesday was unusually clear:

Owning the infrastructure behind AI was rewarded. Owning businesses that AI could potentially replace was not.

What to Watch Wednesday, September 9

The biggest scheduled corporate event arrives at 1 p.m. ET, when Apple holds its first major product launch under new CEO John Ternus.

Wall Street expects Apple to unveil its first foldable iPhone, with analysts anticipating a price above $2,500, alongside new high-end iPhones and a major Siri AI upgrade. Analysts estimate the foldable device could eventually generate more than $45 billion in revenue by the end of 2027. 

For investors, however, Siri may matter more than the hinge.

Apple must convince Wall Street that it can remain a central gateway for artificial intelligence rather than allowing OpenAI, Google and Meta to control the next generation of consumer computing.

Oil will remain the other major market driver.

Brent came within roughly $2 of $100 Tuesday. Another attack on Gulf energy infrastructure or additional disruption to Hormuz shipping could push energy through that psychological threshold and increase expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates next week.

Markets will also begin positioning for the Producer Price Index on Thursday and Consumer Price Index on Friday, the final major inflation readings before the Fed’s September 16 decision. Economists expect wholesale inflation to accelerate, making those numbers particularly important after the latest surge in energy costs. 

Wednesday also brings a group of consumer and business earnings, including Chewy, American Eagle Outfitters and AeroVironment, offering additional reads on discretionary spending and defense demand. 

Bottom Line

Tuesday was not simply a bad day for stocks.

It exposed several of the most important shifts happening underneath the economy.

Small businesses say sales are weakening. Oil is nearing $100. Interest rates may rise again. Cyberattacks are now knocking major corporations off their earnings forecasts. Washington is forcing manufacturers to reconsider Chinese supply chains. And AI is beginning to separate corporate winners from potential casualties.

At the same time, Amazon is potentially committing tens of billions to alternative AI chips, Verizon is ordering tens of millions of miles of fiber and a New Jersey nuclear company believes the public market may value it above $10 billion.

There is still enormous capital available.

But investors are becoming much more selective about which side of the economic transformation receives it.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Some of the world’s largest asset managers are finding opportunity in an unexpected corner of the bond market: emerging economies, where higher real yields and stronger fiscal discipline are attracting capital while developed-market government bonds come under pressure.

BlackRock and JPMorgan Asset Management are among the firms increasing their focus on emerging-market debt as investors reassess where the best risk-adjusted returns are available in global fixed income.

The shift comes during a difficult period for government bonds in the United States, United Kingdom, Japan and other major economies.

Long-term yields have climbed as investors worry about persistent inflation, large government deficits, heavy borrowing needs and renewed geopolitical risk.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield recently reached 3% for the first time since 1996, while U.S. Treasury yields have moved sharply higher and investors are increasingly discussing whether the benchmark 10-year could again approach 5%.

Against that backdrop, some emerging markets suddenly look comparatively attractive.

One reason is simple:

Real yields are high.

Real yield measures how much an investor earns after inflation.

Countries including Brazil and South Africa continue to offer substantially higher inflation-adjusted returns than many developed economies.

That gives investors a larger cushion if global interest rates remain elevated.

BlackRock has already moved local-currency emerging-market debt to an overweight position, reflecting the firm’s view that valuations and income opportunities have become more attractive.

JPMorgan Asset Management has expressed a similar preference, pointing to unusually high real yields available across several local emerging-market bond markets.

The strategy represents a reversal of the way many investors treated emerging markets for much of the previous decade.

For years, U.S. assets benefited from strong economic growth, a powerful dollar and enormous demand for American stocks and bonds.

Emerging markets often struggled with weaker currencies, inflation and political instability.

But the financial landscape has changed.

Many emerging-market central banks raised interest rates earlier and more aggressively than their developed-market counterparts during the recent inflation cycle.

Several countries also strengthened foreign-exchange reserves, improved monetary credibility and developed deeper domestic bond markets.

Those changes have made their economies less dependent on foreign-dollar borrowing than they were during previous crises.

Investor money is following.

Emerging-market debt attracted approximately $214 billion in inflows through July, the strongest pace in roughly two decades.

Bond issuance from emerging economies has also reached record territory.

The appeal has been strengthened by weakness in the U.S. dollar.

When the dollar falls, investors holding bonds denominated in currencies such as the Brazilian real, Mexican peso or South African rand can receive an additional boost when those investments are translated back into dollars.

But the trade is not without substantial risk.

A renewed surge in U.S. interest rates or sharp strengthening of the dollar could quickly reverse capital flows.

Political instability, commodity-price swings and country-specific fiscal problems remain important risks across emerging markets.

And if the Federal Reserve becomes significantly more aggressive about raising rates, higher U.S. yields could once again pull money away from developing economies.

What It Means for You

This is an important change in where some of the world’s largest investors believe value can be found.

For years, the simplest bond strategy was often to buy debt issued by wealthy developed countries and treat emerging markets as the riskier alternative.

That equation is becoming less obvious.

Governments in the United States, Japan and parts of Europe are carrying enormous debt loads while continuing to borrow heavily.

At the same time, several emerging economies have spent years repairing their finances and fighting inflation aggressively.

That means investors can sometimes receive higher yields from countries whose financial fundamentals have actually been improving.

The result is a remarkable reversal:

While investors worry about government borrowing in some of the world’s richest economies, BlackRock and JPMorgan are finding opportunities in countries that markets once considered considerably more dangerous.

That does not mean emerging-market bonds have suddenly become safe.

It means the definition of where the risk is is beginning to change.

And when institutions managing trillions of dollars start shifting money because of that change, global capital flows can move with them.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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JBizNews U.S. Market Opening Recap — September 7, 2026

There is no U.S. stock-market opening today. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are closed Monday, September 7, for Labor Day, so there are no opening levels or point changes for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite. Regular trading resumes Tuesday morning at 9:30 a.m. ET. 

For reference, Friday’s session ended with the Dow at 53,414.25, down 0.5%, the S&P 500 at 7,718.60, down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,506.99, down 0.3% after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report pushed Treasury yields higher and increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates this month. 

The most important market-moving development during the holiday session is oil.

Brent crude was trading around $97 a barrel Monday, near a six-week high, while West Texas Intermediate was near $92 as escalating U.S.-Iran attacks threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic through the waterway has fallen sharply, and Goldman Sachs has warned crude could reach roughly $120 if the conflict produces a more severe supply disruption. 

That leaves investors facing a potentially difficult combination when Wall Street reopens Tuesday: a labor market that is stronger than expected and an oil shock threatening to keep inflation elevated.

Friday’s August employment report showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs, far above forecasts, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. The surprise has already caused major Wall Street firms to rethink the interest-rate outlook. UBS said Monday it now expects two Federal Reserve rate increases in 2026 — one in September and another in December — after previously forecasting no moves this year. Market pricing has also shifted toward a greater probability of a September hike. 

That means Tuesday’s reopening could quickly become a battle between economic strength and inflation risk.

There are no major scheduled U.S. economic reports Monday morning because of the Labor Day holiday. The economic focus shifts to inflation later this week, with CPI and PPI data becoming especially important ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 policy meeting. The NYSE also flagged inflation data as the major macroeconomic event for the coming week. 

Overseas markets remained active Monday. Asian technology shares were strong, with Japan’s Nikkei gaining about 2.1% and South Korea’s Kospi surging roughly 4.6%, helped by sharp gains in semiconductor stocks including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. European markets were mixed to lower, while U.S. stock-index futures pointed modestly downward during the holiday session. 

AI investment remains another major business theme heading into Tuesday. South Korea and the United States are discussing a potentially enormous Texas energy project designed partly to supply growing electricity demand from AI data centers. Korean media reported a possible investment of more than $20 billion in a 6.3-gigawatt gas-power project, although South Korea’s Industry Ministry cautioned that negotiations remain ongoing and no final agreement has been reached. 

For investors, the first thing to watch Tuesday morning will be oil. A sustained move toward or through $100 Brent could quickly pressure consumer, transportation, industrial and other energy-sensitive stocks while boosting producers.

The second is the 10-year Treasury yield. It finished last week near 4.78% after the strong employment report. Another jump toward 5% would put renewed pressure on technology, housing and other rate-sensitive sectors.

The third is the Federal Reserve. With UBS now forecasting two hikes and other banks also revising their outlooks, every inflation reading between now and the September 16 decision carries greater weight.

Corporate results will also return to focus this week, with Oracle, Adobe, Macy’s and Kroger among companies expected to report, while management presentations at a heavy calendar of investor conferences could provide fresh signals on consumer demand, AI spending and capital investment. 

There may be no opening bell Monday, but the market is hardly standing still.

The setup for Tuesday is increasingly clear: oil near $100, a stronger labor market, rising expectations for another Fed rate hike and investors waiting to see whether Wall Street can absorb all three at once.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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One of the largest utility mergers in U.S. history has moved a major step closer to completion as shareholders of both NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy approved the $66.8 billion combination.

Shareholders of NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy voted Thursday, September 3, to approve their proposed $66.8 billion merger, clearing one of the biggest corporate hurdles standing between the two utilities and the creation of a massive new U.S. power company.

The deal was first announced in May and is structured as an all-stock transaction.

If regulators approve it, the combined company would become the world’s largest regulated electric utility business by market capitalization, according to NextEra, and would serve approximately 10 million customer accounts across Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina.

The merger is arriving at a particularly important moment for the U.S. power industry.

Electricity demand is accelerating after years of relatively slow growth, driven heavily by the enormous power requirements of artificial intelligence data centers, advanced manufacturing and broader electrification.

Virginia sits directly at the center of that shift.

Dominion operates in a state that contains one of the largest concentrations of data centers in the world, making its electric grid increasingly important to the expansion of the AI industry.

NextEra, meanwhile, is already one of America’s largest developers and operators of power generation, transmission and renewable-energy infrastructure.

Combining the two would give the company an unusually large footprint across some of the fastest-growing electricity markets in the country.

The companies say greater scale should help them finance and build power plants, transmission systems and other infrastructure more efficiently as electricity demand rises.

They have also proposed $2.25 billion in shareholder-funded customer bill credits in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina and pledged that merger-related costs would not be passed along to customers.

But shareholder approval does not mean the deal is finished.

The merger still faces extensive federal and state regulatory reviews, including scrutiny over electricity rates, competition, employment and future investment.

Regulators will ultimately decide whether the benefits promised by the companies outweigh concerns about allowing two already-large utilities to become substantially larger.

What It Means for You

This deal is about much more than two electric companies becoming one.

It is another sign that electricity itself is becoming one of the most valuable commodities of the AI economy.

Technology companies can buy more chips and build more data centers, but none of that computing power works without enormous amounts of reliable electricity.

That is forcing utilities to spend billions on new generating capacity, transmission lines, substations and grid infrastructure.

It is also making utilities increasingly valuable strategic assets.

If the NextEra-Dominion merger receives final approval, the combined company would have enormous scale to finance those investments — and an unusually strong position in states experiencing some of America’s fastest-growing power demand.

For investors, businesses and consumers, the regulatory fight now becomes the story.

Shareholders have said yes.

Now federal and state regulators must decide whether creating a $66.8 billion power giant will help America meet its rapidly growing electricity needs without pushing costs higher for the customers who ultimately pay for the grid.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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U.S. Markets — Strong Jobs Report Revives Rate-Hike Fears

Wall Street finished the final trading day before the Labor Day weekend lower after the August employment report came in far stronger than expected, pushing investors back toward the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate increase this month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,407.15, down 278.96 points, or 0.52%. The S&P 500 finished at 7,718.13, down 29.58 points, or 0.38%, while the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,505.44, down 78.62 points, or 0.30%. 

The jobs report itself was the morning’s dominant economic event, but its market impact was the bigger story by the close. Expectations for a quarter-point Fed increase at the September meeting jumped to roughly 60% from about 49% Thursday.

Treasury yields moved higher with the 10-year yield around 4.78% and the two-year yield near 4.38%.

That matters directly to business owners and consumers because Treasury yields ultimately feed into mortgages, commercial real-estate financing, business loans, auto loans and corporate borrowing costs. 

Technology helped keep the broader decline contained. Memory-chip and semiconductor shares rallied sharply even as much of the rest of the market weakened.

Housing & Credit — FICO’s Mortgage Dominance Takes a Major Hit

One of Friday’s biggest market disruptions came from an industry most consumers rarely think about: the credit score used when they apply for a mortgage.

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to allow every lender to use VantageScore, effective immediately, after an initial rollout involving 50 lenders.

For decades, FICO has effectively dominated mortgage credit scoring.

Pulte’s message was unusually direct: the monopoly is ending.

That sent Fair Isaac, the company behind FICO, sharply lower, with shares falling roughly 17% by the close after dropping as much as 20% earlier in the session. TransUnion fell about 9%, Equifax about 9% and Experian nearly 5%. 

The administration says increased competition could ultimately reduce costs for homebuyers.

But the significance goes further.

Credit scores influence whether borrowers qualify for mortgages, what interest rate they receive and how lenders assess risk. Introducing competing scoring systems could eventually change how millions of Americans are evaluated.

Pulte also raised the possibility of moving away from the traditional system requiring reports from all three major credit bureaus toward a “bi-merge” system using only two.

Why it mattered today: A regulatory change just challenged one of the most powerful tollbooths in American consumer finance. For mortgage lenders, credit bureaus and homebuyers, this could become a significant restructuring of the home-loan process.

Supply Chains — Chinese Rare-Earth Suppliers Are Refusing Some U.S. Orders

A supply-chain problem Washington thought it had partially solved is resurfacing.

Some Chinese rare-earth suppliers are declining to ship critical materials to American customers because they fear punishment from Beijing, according to people familiar with the trade.

The problem intensified after China sanctioned the Responsible Business Alliance, a U.S.-based supply-chain monitoring organization, in August.

Some Chinese exporters now worry that supplying companies using related Western due-diligence systems could put them in conflict with Chinese restrictions. 

The affected materials are not obscure commodities.

Rare earths and related critical minerals are used in semiconductors, aerospace equipment, medical devices, energy systems, electric motors and advanced manufacturing.

Prices for several strategically important materials remain near record highs.

U.S. imports of yttrium from China, for example, remain roughly half their 2024 level, and some American companies have reportedly waited more than six months for export licenses. 

Why it mattered today: Businesses spent years learning what happens when one critical component can stop an entire production line.

Rare-earth restrictions create exactly that risk.

Washington has invested billions trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor and advanced-manufacturing capacity, but many of those factories still depend on minerals largely processed in China.

That dependence will now be one of the major business issues hanging over President Xi Jinping’s September 24 visit to Washington.

AI & Banking — ByteDance Borrows Nearly $30 Billion to Fund Its AI Race

ByteDance has secured a staggering $29.6 billion loan from nearly 30 banks, one of the largest corporate loans raised anywhere in Asia this year.

The financing was originally expected to total about $20 billion.

Demand from lenders was so strong that ByteDance expanded it to nearly $30 billion.

Citigroup and JPMorgan are coordinating the three-year financing, with banks from China, the United States, Europe and Singapore participating. Chinese banks are providing more than 60% of the facility. 

Even more striking: the loan is unsecured.

ByteDance is not pledging factories, shares or other assets as collateral.

Banks are lending largely on the strength of the company itself.

The money is officially for general corporate purposes, but people familiar with the financing say much of it will support ByteDance’s artificial-intelligence expansion, including chips and overseas data-center capacity.

Why it mattered today: The AI race is becoming one of the most capital-intensive corporate competitions in history.

It is no longer enough to hire software engineers and build an app.

Companies competing at the frontier now need chips, power, data centers, networking equipment and enormous quantities of financing.

ByteDance borrowing nearly $30 billion shows that global banks are increasingly financing the AI buildout almost as aggressively as they once financed telecom networks, energy projects and major infrastructure.

Software — Adobe Changes CEOs as AI Threatens the Photoshop Empire

Adobe is entering a new era.

Anil Chakravarthy will replace Shantanu Narayen as CEO, while Narayen moves into the role of executive chairman after more than 18 years running the company.

Narayen helped transform Adobe from a company selling boxed software into one of the world’s most successful subscription-software businesses.

Now Chakravarthy inherits a very different challenge.

Artificial intelligence is making it easier for competitors such as Canva, Figma and dozens of newer tools to create images, video and designs that once required specialized Adobe software. 

Adobe shares have already fallen significantly over the past two years as investors question whether generative AI strengthens Adobe’s products or ultimately weakens the company’s competitive advantage.

The stock fell again Friday following the leadership announcement.

Why it mattered today: Adobe is a test case for an enormous part of corporate America.

AI does not only create new businesses.

It can attack highly profitable existing ones.

Companies that spent decades building software moats must now prove that artificial intelligence will make their products more valuable instead of making them easier to replace.

Energy & Wall Street — Citadel Considers Owning the Oil Wells It Trades Around

Citadel, one of the world’s largest hedge funds and commodity-trading operations, is considering going directly into ownership of U.S. shale oil production assets.

The firm recently held discussions about acquiring oil-producing properties and submitted a bid for WildFire Energy before Magnolia ultimately purchased the company for approximately $4.06 billion. 

Citadel already moved into physical natural-gas production last year.

Buying shale oil properties would deepen that shift from simply trading commodities to actually owning the assets producing them.

The timing is significant.

Middle East disruptions have increased the strategic value of U.S. oil because American shale production does not depend on moving barrels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it mattered today: Wall Street is increasingly treating physical energy infrastructure as both an investment and a hedge against geopolitical instability.

If large commodity traders begin owning more wells, pipelines, storage and generation assets, the line between financial markets and the physical energy business becomes increasingly blurred.

For U.S. producers, it could also introduce another deep-pocketed buyer competing for shale assets.

U.S.-China Business — Xi Plans an Unusually Large CEO Delegation for Washington

Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing to bring a large group of corporate executives with him when he visits Washington on September 24.

That is unusual.

Xi rarely travels abroad with a large private-sector business delegation, particularly after years in which Beijing tightened control over many of China’s most powerful technology and property companies.

The planned delegation is being viewed as an effort to signal that China wants greater commercial investment and business cooperation with the United States. 

The last comparable U.S. trip came in 2015, when executives including Alibaba founder Jack Ma and Tencent founder Pony Ma accompanied Xi.

That visit produced, among other deals, a $38 billion agreement for 300 Boeing aircraft.

No comparable deal has been announced this time.

But agriculture, tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers and rare-earth access are all expected to be part of the broader negotiations.

Why it mattered today: The U.S.-China relationship remains deeply competitive, but business is moving back toward the negotiating table.

For manufacturers, farmers, technology companies and multinational businesses, even modest progress could affect tariffs, exports, mineral supplies and billions of dollars of investment.

Artificial Intelligence — Washington and Beijing Prepare First Dedicated AI-Safety Talks

The United States and China are also preparing for possible mid-September talks devoted specifically to artificial-intelligence safety, according to people briefed on the discussions.

The proposed agenda includes monitoring AI-directed cyberattacks and potentially encouraging U.S. and Chinese AI laboratories to share information when autonomous systems create serious security incidents. 

The discussions are still tentative. A Treasury spokesperson said no meeting is formally planned, and participants and the agenda remain in flux.

But the fact that the two governments are even discussing such a channel is significant.

Autonomous AI agents are increasingly capable of taking actions across computer networks without humans approving every step.

That creates risks extending far beyond chatbots: hacking, fraud, intellectual-property theft, infrastructure attacks and automated financial manipulation.

Why it mattered today: AI safety is moving from a technology-company issue into an international business and national-security issue.

Companies adopting autonomous AI will increasingly need to think about permissions, cybersecurity controls, insurance and accountability in much the same way they already manage employees and outside contractors.

Consumers & Transportation — Diesel Hits $5.85, the Highest Price Ever

Friday also delivered a record businesses will feel far beyond the gas station.

The average U.S. diesel price reached $5.85 a gallon — an all-time high.

Brent crude settled at $96.28 a barrel, while U.S. crude finished at $91.48. Both gained roughly 9% during the week.

Gasoline prices are also at their highest level ever for a Labor Day weekend. 

Diesel matters even more to the broader economy because it powers trucks, delivery fleets, construction equipment and much of the agricultural supply chain.

A higher diesel bill eventually gets embedded into the price of groceries, building materials, packages and manufactured goods.

That makes the fuel surge particularly important for the Fed.

Higher energy prices can restart inflation even when other prices are stabilizing.

Key Market Movers

Company

Friday Move

Why

Sandisk

about +10% to +11%

AI and memory-chip demand continued driving the semiconductor trade

Micron Technology

about +4% to +5%

Memory-chip demand and AI infrastructure enthusiasm

FICO

about -17%

Fannie and Freddie opened mortgage scoring to VantageScore

TransUnion

about -9%

Credit-scoring and bureau reform concerns

Equifax

about -9%

Same mortgage-credit overhaul

Lululemon

about -18%

Reduced annual sales and profit outlook

Adobe

down sharply

CEO transition and continued concern over AI competition

Semiconductors were one of Friday’s rare pockets of strength. Sandisk led the S&P 500 higher among individual names, while Micron and several other memory and chip-equipment companies advanced even as the broader indexes fell. 

What to Watch Saturday and the Labor Day Weekend

U.S. stock and bond markets are closed Saturday and will remain closed Monday, September 7, for Labor Day.

That does not mean markets are insulated from what happens over the weekend.

The biggest immediate risk remains energy.

Brent crude is already above $96 and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Any additional military escalation could push oil, diesel and inflation expectations higher before U.S. futures reopen Sunday evening. 

The second issue is China.

Rare-earth shipments are again becoming a negotiating problem just weeks before Xi’s Washington visit, while the two countries are simultaneously working toward discussions involving trade, investment and artificial-intelligence safety.

For American manufacturers, any weekend signal that China may loosen or tighten mineral exports could matter more than another political headline.

The next major scheduled economic test arrives September 11 with the August Consumer Price Index.

After Friday’s unexpectedly strong employment report, that inflation number could effectively decide the Fed debate.

If inflation remains hot while employment is strong, the argument for a September rate increase becomes substantially stronger.

If inflation cools meaningfully, the Fed may still have room to wait.

Bottom Line

Friday gave businesses and investors a clearer picture of where the economy stands heading into the Labor Day weekend.

The labor market is stronger than expected, but that strength makes another rate hike more likely. Diesel is at a record. Oil is approaching $100. Mortgage credit scoring is being disrupted. Critical Chinese mineral supplies remain uncertain.

At the same time, banks are lending nearly $30 billion to finance another AI expansion, semiconductor stocks are surging and Wall Street money is moving directly into American energy production.

The economy is not short of capital.

The question heading into September is becoming where that capital can still earn a return when borrowing, transportation and operating costs are all moving higher at the same time.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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President Donald Trump renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve Friday to lower interest rates, saying policymakers “must get smart” even as a stronger-than-expected August jobs report gave the central bank more reason to remain cautious.

The clash is becoming increasingly clear.

Trump wants cheaper borrowing costs.

The latest economic data are giving the Fed an argument for keeping rates high.

That tension is now one of the most important stories in U.S. markets.

Trump Wants Rates Lower

Trump has repeatedly argued that U.S. interest rates are too high and that lower rates would reduce borrowing costs for businesses, homebuyers and the federal government.

On Friday, he again pressed the Fed to move lower, saying the United States should have some of the lowest interest rates in the world.

He also tied the issue to trade, warning that countries benefiting from large trade surpluses with the United States could face consequences if interest rates remain too high.

The broader message from the White House is simple:

High rates are making American business less competitive.

But the Jobs Report Complicates That Argument

Friday’s employment report showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, much stronger than many economists had expected.

That matters because the Federal Reserve watches the labor market closely when deciding whether the economy can handle higher interest rates.

If hiring is strong and unemployment remains relatively low, the Fed has less reason to rush into rate cuts.

A strong labor market can also keep wage growth elevated.

And if wages rise too quickly, businesses may raise prices to cover higher labor costs.

That can keep inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.

Markets Immediately Saw the Conflict

Treasury yields moved higher after the jobs report as investors reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts.

That is the market’s way of saying:

The economy may still be too strong for the Fed to ease aggressively.

Higher Treasury yields can quickly affect the rest of the economy.

Mortgage rates can rise.

Corporate borrowing gets more expensive.

Auto loans become more costly.

Commercial real estate financing becomes harder.

That is exactly why Trump is pushing in the opposite direction.

Why the Fed May Resist Political Pressure

The Federal Reserve is designed to operate independently from the White House.

Its job is to manage inflation and employment, not to set rates based on political preferences.

Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized that policy decisions will depend on economic data.

That means the central bank is unlikely to cut rates simply because the president wants it to.

If inflation remains elevated and hiring remains strong, policymakers may decide that lower rates would risk reigniting price pressures.

Trump’s Business Argument

From Trump’s perspective, high rates create real economic costs.

Businesses financing equipment, buildings, inventory or expansion pay more.

Homebuilders face weaker demand.

Consumers pay more for mortgages, credit cards and vehicles.

The federal government also pays more interest on its debt.

Lower rates would ease all of those pressures.

That is why Trump has made monetary policy a much more public political issue than most presidents typically do.

The Fed’s Counterargument

The Fed’s concern is that cutting too soon can create a bigger inflation problem later.

If rates fall while the economy is still expanding quickly, households and businesses may borrow and spend more.

That additional demand can push prices higher.

The Fed learned during the post-pandemic inflation surge how difficult it can be to regain control once inflation becomes entrenched.

So policymakers are trying to avoid repeating that mistake.

What It Means for Businesses

For businesses, this fight matters because interest rates affect almost every major financial decision.

A company deciding whether to open another location may wait if financing is too expensive.

A manufacturer may delay buying new equipment.

A developer may postpone a project.

A consumer may decide not to buy a house.

That slows economic activity.

But if rates are cut too aggressively and inflation rises again, businesses face higher labor, transportation and material costs.

There is no painless option.

The September Fed Meeting Just Became More Important

The Federal Reserve meets again later this month.

Before that meeting, policymakers will receive additional inflation data.

Those numbers could determine which side of the debate gains the advantage.

If inflation cools sharply, Trump’s argument for lower rates becomes easier to make.

If inflation remains stubborn and the labor market stays strong, the Fed may decide that cutting rates would be premature.

That leaves markets caught between two powerful forces.

The White House wants cheaper money.

The Federal Reserve wants proof that inflation is under control.

And Friday’s jobs report gave the Fed more reason to wait.

JBizNews Desk | Washington

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JBizNews U.S. Market Opening Recap — September 4, 2026 | 10:00 A.M. ET

Wall Street opened cautiously Friday after a much stronger-than-expected August employment report showed the U.S. economy added jobs at nearly three times the pace economists expected, immediately reviving the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 53,584.89, down 101.2 points, or 0.19%. The S&P 500 opened at 7,750.19, up 2.5 points, or 0.03%, while the Nasdaq Composite opened at 26,587.90, up 3.8 points, or 0.01%. Early trading remained subdued, with the Dow modestly lower, the S&P 500 near flat and the Nasdaq slightly positive. 

The morning’s economic story is almost entirely about jobs. U.S. employers added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, far above the roughly 56,000 economists surveyed by Reuters had expected. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while the labor-force participation rate rose to 61.6% from 61.4%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year earlier, suggesting the labor market strengthened without a major new acceleration in wage inflation. 

The report also substantially improved the picture for the previous two months. June payroll growth was revised to 31,000 from 20,000, while July was revised from a previously reported 23,000-job decline to a 21,000 increase. Together, June and July employment was revised upward by 55,000 jobs. 

The composition was revealing. Restaurants and bars added about 59,000 jobs, local government education added 42,000, manufacturing gained 16,000, and health care continued growing. But the information sector lost 23,000 jobs, including declines in computing infrastructure, data processing, web hosting, publishing and broadcasting — a notable divergence as companies increasingly invest in automation and artificial intelligence. 

The immediate market consequence is higher interest-rate risk. Fed-funds futures moved to roughly a 59% probability of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting, up from about 55% before the jobs report. The two-year Treasury yield climbed about five basis points to 4.38%, while the 10-year yield moved near 4.78%. 

That creates an unusual “good news is bad news” problem for stocks. The jobs report reduces fears that the economy is slipping into recession, but it also gives the Fed more room to concentrate on inflation — particularly with energy prices still elevated.

Oil eased modestly Friday morning but remains sharply higher for the week. U.S. crude traded around $90.50 a barrel and Brent near $94.85, with both benchmarks up roughly 8% to 9% this week amid continued disruption tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. diesel prices have reached a record $5.85 a gallon, an especially important inflation risk because diesel feeds directly into trucking, shipping, agriculture and the cost of moving consumer goods. 

Among individual stocks, Lululemon plunged about 20% after cutting its full-year forecast for the second time. Second-quarter revenue in the Americas fell 8% from a year earlier as the company struggles with weaker demand, merchandising problems and heavier promotions. Incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill takes over September 8 with the shares already down more than 40% this year. 

On the other side, Samsara jumped roughly 13% to 14% after reporting quarterly revenue of $508.4 million, up 30%, and raising its full-year outlook. Annual recurring revenue reached about $2.13 billion, also up 30%, providing another sign that corporate spending on connected operations, automation and AI-linked software remains strong even as parts of the broader technology labor market weaken. 

Guidewire Software fell roughly 15%, while cybersecurity company Zscaler slipped despite better-than-expected results, showing how demanding valuations remain across software after the sector’s recent rally. Adobe is also in focus after naming longtime executive Anil Chakravarthy as its next CEO, succeeding Shantanu Narayen, as the company confronts growing competition from AI-powered creative tools. 

For the rest of Friday, the most important number may not be a stock index at all — it is the 10-year Treasury yield. If yields continue climbing toward 4.8% or beyond, pressure could build on technology, housing, utilities and other rate-sensitive sectors. If yields stabilize, investors may increasingly focus on the positive side of the employment report: the economy remains stronger than feared.

Oil remains the second major variable. Another escalation involving Iran or further disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could quickly erase Friday’s modest decline in crude and reinforce the Fed’s inflation concerns.

The third test is market leadership. Investors will be watching whether technology can remain resilient despite higher yields, whether consumer stocks follow Lululemon lower, and whether the strong jobs report ultimately becomes a reason to buy economically sensitive stocks or a reason to sell because of higher interest rates.

The market’s message at the opening is unusually clear: the U.S. economy looks stronger this morning, but that strength may come with a price — a Federal Reserve that has more room to raise rates if inflation refuses to cool.

Next week’s inflation reports now become even more important. With employment holding up and the Fed meeting on September 15-16, a hot CPI reading could dramatically strengthen the case for another rate increase.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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VANCOUVER — Lululemon delivered a sharp warning after Thursday’s market close, cutting its annual sales and profit forecasts as competition from newer athletic brands continues to pressure one of the most successful premium apparel companies of the past decade.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to decline 5% to 7%.

Previously, Lululemon had expected sales to be roughly flat or fall by no more than 1%.

Its projected earnings were also cut substantially, with the company now expecting $9.48 to $9.73 per share, down from its previous forecast of $10.95 to $11.15.

Shares fell approximately 15% in after-hours trading following the announcement.

The decline adds to what has already been a brutal stretch for investors.

Lululemon shares have lost nearly 69% of their value since the beginning of 2025, a dramatic reversal for a company once considered one of the strongest growth brands in global retail.

The problem is increasingly bigger than one disappointing quarter.

Lululemon is facing stronger competition from brands including Alo Yoga and Vuori, which have been gaining customers in North America and challenging Lululemon’s long-standing dominance in premium athletic apparel.

That matters because premium retail depends heavily on perception.

Consumers are willing to pay significantly more for leggings, workout clothing and casual apparel when they believe one brand is meaningfully more desirable than its competitors.

Once multiple brands begin offering similar products with comparable status, design and quality, that pricing power becomes harder to defend.

The consumer is also becoming more selective.

Households continue spending, but higher food, housing, borrowing and energy costs are forcing more shoppers to think carefully about discretionary purchases.

A customer who once bought several $100-plus items without much hesitation may now compare prices, wait for promotions or try a competing brand.

That puts pressure on both sales and margins.

Lululemon’s leadership situation adds another layer of uncertainty.

Incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill, a former Nike executive, is preparing to take control following a bruising proxy fight involving company founder Chip Wilson.

She inherits a brand that remains globally recognized and highly profitable but now needs to prove it can regain momentum.

The challenge is not simply cutting costs.

Lululemon needs to convince consumers that its products remain distinctive enough to command premium prices while also expanding into new categories and international markets without weakening the brand.

For retailers across the economy, the lesson is important.

A strong brand is not permanent protection.

Competitors can copy product categories, recruit talent, build social-media followings and create new customer loyalties surprisingly quickly.

Once that happens, the incumbent has to earn the premium all over again.

Friday’s regular trading session will provide the first full market reaction to Lululemon’s reduced outlook.

But Thursday night already delivered the larger message.

The premium consumer is still spending.

Lululemon is simply no longer guaranteed to receive that money.

JBizNews Desk | Vancouver

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U.S. Markets — Wall Street Surges as Rate-Hike Fears Ease

Stocks staged their strongest rally of the week Thursday as investors pulled back from expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 645.71 points, or 1.22%, to close at 53,707.66.

The S&P 500 gained 88.54 points, or 1.15%, to 7,755.14, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 410.31 points, or 1.57%, to 26,628.14. 

The immediate catalyst was Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaling that he could support leaving rates unchanged if upcoming inflation readings show price pressures easing. Markets cut the probability of a September rate increase to roughly 50% from 63% a day earlier. That development was already part of JBizNews coverage Thursday, but its impact dominated the closing numbers. 

Bond yields retreated with the 10-year Treasury around 4.75%, providing some relief to rate-sensitive stocks. Oil remained expensive, however: Brent crude settled at $95.52 a barrel, while U.S. crude finished at $91.30. 

For businesses, Thursday’s rally should not be confused with a sudden disappearance of inflation risk. Financing costs eased slightly, but energy remains expensive and new economic data showed businesses paying some of the fastest-rising service-sector input costs in years.

Economy & Main Street — Services Boom While Businesses Face a New Cost Squeeze

America’s enormous services economy accelerated unexpectedly in August.

The Institute for Supply Management’s services index climbed to 55.4 from 54.1 in July, comfortably above the 50 level separating expansion from contraction.

More importantly, new orders surged to 60.9, their highest level since February 2023.

That is a significant sign that consumer spending and business demand remain stronger than many feared.

But there was a problem buried inside the numbers.

The index measuring what services companies are paying for supplies and other inputs jumped to 72.6, its highest level since August 2022. 

That combination — strong demand and rising costs — is precisely what makes the Federal Reserve’s next decision difficult.

Businesses are still receiving orders, but inflationary pressures are not disappearing.

For restaurant owners, contractors, professional-service companies, transportation operators and countless other Main Street businesses, this can mean another period in which expenses increase faster than customers are willing to accept price increases.

Jobs — Employers Still Aren’t Firing, but They Aren’t Hiring Much Either

Only 206,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims last week, an increase of just 2,000 and still near the low end of this year’s range.

Continuing unemployment claims rose to 1.779 million.

The numbers reinforce what economists increasingly describe as a slow-hire, slow-fire labor market.

Companies are reluctant to conduct large layoffs, but they are also becoming much more cautious about adding workers.

Planned job cuts announced by U.S. companies increased 58% in August to 52,881, although that was still the lowest August total since 2022. 

There was one encouraging development for employers.

Revised government figures showed nonfarm worker productivity rose at a 1.4% annualized rate during the second quarter, while unit labor costs increased only 1.2%.

Manufacturing productivity rose an even stronger 2.4%, while manufacturing unit labor costs actually declined 0.3%. 

That matters because greater productivity allows companies to produce more without increasing labor expenses at the same rate.

If artificial intelligence and automation eventually deliver the productivity improvements businesses are investing billions of dollars to achieve, that could become one of the most important forces helping control inflation over the next several years.

Trade — U.S. Deficit Jumps 24% as Companies Import Record Capital Equipment

The U.S. trade deficit widened 24.4% in July to $88.6 billion.

Imports climbed to $399.3 billion, including a record $140.3 billion of capital-goods imports as companies brought in computers, semiconductor equipment and other machinery tied partly to the enormous AI infrastructure buildout.

Exports, meanwhile, declined to $310.7 billion. 

This is an important economic story because the investment boom is clearly real — American businesses are buying enormous amounts of equipment.

But much of that equipment is still coming from overseas.

Despite aggressive tariffs designed to reduce America’s dependence on imports, the United States recorded record goods deficits with several major trading partners during July.

The widening deficit could also subtract substantially from third-quarter economic growth after trade already reduced second-quarter GDP growth by more than a percentage point.

For businesses, the message is mixed: capital spending remains strong, particularly around AI, but the reshoring of the supply chain remains far from complete.

Technology & Cloud — Microsoft Finally Reveals How Big Azure Really Is

For years Microsoft told investors how quickly Azure was growing without revealing precisely how much revenue the cloud business produced.

That has now changed.

Microsoft disclosed that Azure generated $29.4 billion in its latest quarter and $101.9 billion during its fiscal year ended June 30.

That puts Azure behind Amazon Web Services, which recently generated $42.2 billion in quarterly cloud revenue, but ahead of Google Cloud’s $24.8 billion. 

Microsoft is also reorganizing how it reports its entire business.

Instead of three traditional operating divisions, it will increasingly divide the company between “Agents and Infra” — encompassing cloud computing, AI and business software — and “Devices and Consumer,” which includes Windows, Xbox and advertising.

That accounting change says something important about where Microsoft believes its future lies.

The company no longer wants investors thinking primarily about Windows, Office and Xbox as separate franchises. It increasingly wants Wall Street measuring Microsoft as an AI and cloud infrastructure company.

Why it mattered today: Investors finally have a direct dollar figure against which they can judge whether Microsoft’s enormous spending on data centers, chips and AI infrastructure is translating into actual Azure revenue.

And at more than $100 billion annually, Azure is already one of the largest standalone technology businesses in the world.

Banking & Fintech — Revolut Moves Closer to Becoming a Full U.S. Bank

British financial-technology giant Revolut received conditional approval for a U.S. national bank charter, moving it much closer to competing directly with traditional American banks.

Revolut has approximately 80 million customers worldwide and plans to establish its U.S. bank in Stamford, Connecticut.

The company expects to inject about $95 million in capital and aims to launch the bank during the first half of 2027, pending additional approvals from the FDIC and Federal Reserve.

Its planned products include checking accounts, installment loans, credit cards, foreign exchange services and eventually a stablecoin. 

This is bigger than another banking license.

Fintech companies spent years building apps that sat on top of the traditional banking system. Revolut is now moving directly into the banking business itself.

That means traditional banks — particularly institutions competing for younger customers, international businesses and digital-first consumers — could face another enormous competitor.

It also brings stablecoins one step closer to mainstream financial services.

Trade & Equipment — New Drone Tariffs Take Effect Today

A major new U.S. tariff regime on imported commercial drones took effect Thursday.

Beginning at 12:01 a.m. September 3, the United States imposed a 100% tariff on certain larger drones, drones equipped with thermal-imaging technology, docking stations and designated critical components.

Certain smaller imported drones are subject to a 25% tariff.

Products meeting specific origin requirements from the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland and Liechtenstein can face rates no higher than 15%, while qualifying British products can receive a 10% rate. 

The administration argues that America has become dangerously dependent on foreign drone manufacturers and components and wants the tariffs to accelerate domestic production.

But the business impact goes far beyond defense contractors.

Drones are now routinely used by construction companies, roofers, utilities, agriculture businesses, telecommunications companies, surveyors, real-estate operators, infrastructure companies and emergency services.

For companies buying specialized imported equipment, particularly larger or thermal-imaging drones, acquisition costs could change dramatically beginning today.

Domestic drone manufacturers stand to benefit from protection against foreign competitors, but even American manufacturers rely heavily on imported motors, batteries, electronic controls and other components.

So the transition may create higher costs before a larger domestic supply chain develops.

Main Street Retail — Convenience Stores Warn New SNAP Rule Could Force Thousands Out

A federal food-assistance rule scheduled to take effect November 4 is creating a significant issue for convenience-store operators.

Nearly 250 stores and several major trade associations are asking the Agriculture Department to delay enforcement, warning that thousands of stores could otherwise stop accepting SNAP food benefits.

Under the new requirements, participating retailers must carry at least seven varieties in each of four staple categories: dairy, fruits or vegetables, grains and protein.

Stores that fail to comply can lose their authorization to accept SNAP. 

More than 117,000 U.S. convenience stores currently participate in SNAP, representing nearly half of all SNAP-authorized retailers.

Operators say they need additional time to locate products, negotiate with distributors, adjust shelf space and determine how to handle fresh foods that can spoil much faster than traditional convenience-store inventory.

Major chains including outlets of 7-Eleven, Wawa, Sheetz and RaceTrac joined smaller operators in seeking a six-month delay after the government issues additional guidance. 

Why it mattered today: This is a textbook example of a regulation that can sound relatively simple in Washington but become expensive at store level.

For small operators, carrying more perishable inventory means refrigeration, shelf space, additional deliveries and spoilage.

For consumers, particularly people working overnight shifts or living in communities without nearby supermarkets, losing SNAP access at convenience stores could substantially reduce where they can buy food.

Transportation — Autonomous Trucking Heads Back to Wall Street

Autonomous-trucking software developer PlusAI agreed to go public through a SPAC transaction valuing the company at approximately $800 million before new investment.

The transaction could provide PlusAI with about $300 million in additional capital.

Its SuperDrive system is designed to operate commercial trucks at Level 4 autonomy, meaning vehicles can drive without human intervention under defined operating conditions.

The company is targeting commercial deployment beginning in 2027 and is already operating autonomous freight routes in Texas with transportation partners. 

PlusAI says its development platform has generated $25 million in revenue and it is targeting between $40 million and $50 million of contracted revenue during 2026.

Why it mattered today: Autonomous trucking is moving from years of demonstrations toward an actual commercial-business model.

Trucking is one of the largest expenses in the American supply chain. If autonomous trucks can operate longer hours while reducing labor requirements, the technology could eventually lower freight costs for retailers, manufacturers and distributors.

But investors are again being asked to put substantial valuations on companies whose commercial autonomous operations remain very small.

That makes PlusAI another test of whether public markets are ready to finance the next stage of autonomous transportation.

Global Autos — Volkswagen Says Up to 50,000 Jobs Could Go

Volkswagen’s supervisory board approved a sweeping restructuring plan Thursday that could ultimately eliminate around 50,000 jobs across the company, including management positions.

The automaker said existing cost-cutting programs are no longer enough and that a broader adjustment to its global workforce is necessary.

It did not specify exactly where or when all the cuts would occur. 

Volkswagen pointed to changing demand, technological disruption and growing global competition.

The significance extends beyond one automaker.

Traditional manufacturers are being forced to finance electric vehicles, battery platforms and increasingly expensive vehicle software while simultaneously defending market share against Chinese manufacturers and newer competitors.

A restructuring involving roughly 50,000 positions at one of the largest automakers in the world shows just how disruptive that transition has become.

Suppliers, factories and entire manufacturing regions that depend on Volkswagen could ultimately feel the effects.

After the Bell — Lululemon Cuts Its Outlook Again

Lululemon delivered another warning about the premium consumer immediately after Thursday’s closing bell.

The athletic-apparel company now expects full-year revenue to fall between 5% and 7%, substantially worse than its previous forecast for sales ranging from flat to down 1%.

It also reduced its expected earnings to $9.48 to $9.73 per share, down from its previous range of $10.95 to $11.15. 

Incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill is inheriting a company facing both softer consumer demand and increasingly aggressive competition from younger athletic and lifestyle brands.

Why it mattered today: Lululemon built one of retail’s strongest premium brands by convincing consumers to pay substantially more for apparel.

If even those customers are becoming more selective, it is another indication that discretionary spending is becoming harder to capture.

It also shows that the consumer slowdown is not limited to lower-income households or discount retail.

Key Market Movers

Company

Thursday Move

What Happened

Snowflake

+20.2%

Strong revenue outlook reignited enthusiasm for enterprise AI and cloud software

Robinhood

+16.1%

Crypto-related stocks rallied alongside bitcoin

Strategy

+15.0%

Bitcoin rebound lifted crypto-linked shares

Coinbase

+10.3%

Cryptocurrency markets rebounded

Nvidia

+2.6%

Investors reacted to its Hugging Face acquisition

Broadcom

-3.7%

Revenue guidance failed to meet extremely high AI expectations

The contrast between Snowflake and Broadcom was important.

Investors remain willing to reward companies benefiting from AI spending very aggressively — but expectations have become so high that even strong growth can produce a selloff when forecasts fall slightly short. 

What to Watch Friday, September 4

The most important economic report of the week arrives Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, when the Labor Department releases the official August employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms the September 4 release time. 

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the economy to have added approximately 56,000 jobs in August, following a 23,000 decline in July, with unemployment remaining around 4.1%. 

That report could reverse Thursday’s entire interest-rate move.

A substantially stronger jobs number would give the Fed more room to concentrate on inflation and could quickly revive expectations for a September rate increase.

A weak report — particularly another negative payroll number — would raise a very different concern: that the labor market is deteriorating faster than investors realized.

Friday is also the final U.S. trading session before the Labor Day weekend, with U.S. equity markets closed Monday, September 7.

That makes Friday afternoon positioning especially important.

Investors will be heading into a three-day weekend with Brent crude still above $95 and the Middle East conflict capable of producing a major oil-price move while U.S. markets are closed.

Bottom Line

Thursday produced exactly the kind of contradiction businesses and investors are confronting heading into the fall.

Wall Street rallied because investors became less afraid of another immediate rate increase. But the economic data simultaneously showed strong service-sector demand, the highest service input-cost pressures in years and continued expensive energy.

At the corporate level, money is still pouring into cloud computing, AI infrastructure and autonomous transportation, while consumer businesses and global manufacturers are being forced to restructure, cut forecasts and rethink costs.

For business owners, the economy is not signaling recession.

It is signaling something potentially more complicated: demand remains alive, but labor, energy, financing, regulation and imported equipment remain expensive.

Friday’s jobs report will tell investors whether Thursday’s relief rally has a foundation — or whether another major repricing of interest rates begins before the long weekend.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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U.S. Markets — Wall Street Rebounds, but Oil and Rates Still Hang Over the Rally

Wall Street snapped a three-day losing streak Wednesday as investors moved back into technology, semiconductors and other beaten-down sectors, even as the Iran conflict kept oil near six-week highs and borrowing costs remained elevated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,061.89, up 295.01 points, or 0.56%. The S&P 500 gained 35.16 points, or 0.46%, to 7,666.63, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 118.05 points, or 0.45%, to 26,217.83. Small-cap stocks performed even better, with the Russell 2000 up about 1.1%. 

Brent crude settled 1% higher at $95.63 a barrel, while U.S. crude finished at $91.01. The 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly to about 4.78%, but remains high enough to keep pressure on mortgages, commercial borrowing and corporate financing. 

Dell was particularly important. Its surge showed that investors still believe the enormous buildout of AI computing infrastructure has considerable room to run, despite growing questions about how much capital is being poured into the sector. 

Economy & Interest Rates — Fed Finds Growth, Inflation and a More Cautious Consumer

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book offered a remarkably mixed picture of the American economy.

Economic activity increased modestly across the country, employment rose slightly and prices continued increasing at a moderate pace. Seven of the Fed’s 12 regional districts reported slight-to-modest employment gains, while five reported little change.

The most important detail for businesses may have been what companies said about their customers.

Businesses in several regions reported that consumers have become increasingly sensitive to prices, limiting companies’ ability to pass higher costs along. Businesses also expressed uncertainty about energy prices, government policy and international conflict. 

That creates a difficult situation for the Fed.

Inflation remains above its 2% target, and several policymakers believe another rate increase may be necessary. But hiring is cooling and consumers are increasingly resisting price increases.

Why it mattered today: Businesses may continue facing higher wages, energy and financing expenses without having the pricing power they previously had to pass those costs on to customers.

That margin squeeze — rather than a dramatic recession — could become one of the more important business risks heading into the fall.

Electricity & Infrastructure — Federal Government Warns of Blackout Risk Across Major U.S. Grids

An extreme heat wave pushed some of America’s largest electricity systems close enough to their limits Wednesday that the Department of Energy authorized emergency measures to help prevent blackouts.

The PJM Interconnection, which supplies electricity to roughly 67 million people from Washington through parts of the Midwest, was authorized to call on backup generation before reaching a Level 3 emergency — one of the final stages before rotating blackouts can become necessary.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, covering portions of 15 states, expected peak demand around 121 gigawatts, approaching its all-time record of 127.1 gigawatts. Some utilities asked customers to raise thermostats and reduce unnecessary electricity use. 

Why it mattered today: Electricity reliability is becoming an economic issue, not simply a utility issue.

Manufacturing plants, warehouses, restaurants, retailers, hospitals and data centers all depend on uninterrupted power. At the same time, AI data centers are adding enormous new electricity demand to grids already dealing with summer peaks and aging infrastructure.

The U.S. now faces the challenge of simultaneously electrifying more of the economy, building enormous AI computing facilities and keeping enough reserve power available during extreme weather.

That will require billions of dollars in generation, transmission, transformers, natural gas infrastructure and grid modernization.

Small Business & Private Equity — A Garage-Door Company Is Worth About $2 Billion

KKR agreed to acquire A1 Garage Door Service for roughly $2 billion, according to people familiar with the transaction.

That number is noteworthy because A1 is not a software company, semiconductor manufacturer or financial institution.

It repairs and replaces residential garage doors.

Founded in Phoenix in 2007, A1 has expanded into roughly 20 states. The transaction is part of a much larger private-equity push into plumbing, HVAC, electrical work, pest control, foundation repair, roofing and other fragmented home-service businesses. 

KKR already owns or invests in major home-service platforms including Neighborly and Groundworks, while competing private-equity firms are pursuing similar strategies.

Why it mattered today: Private equity increasingly sees ordinary local service businesses as attractive financial assets because they generate recurring demand, relatively predictable cash flow and opportunities to combine hundreds of smaller operators into regional or national platforms.

For independent business owners, that means the local plumber, HVAC contractor, roofer or garage-door company is increasingly competing against businesses backed by billions of dollars of institutional capital.

It also means owners of well-run service companies may find their businesses worth substantially more than they expected as acquisition competition intensifies.

U.S. Manufacturing — Taiwan Companies Prepare Another $20 Billion American Investment Wave

Taiwanese companies are planning approximately $20 billion in additional U.S. investments, driven largely by extraordinary demand for artificial intelligence and semiconductor products.

The new projects would come on top of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s enormous U.S. expansion. TSMC in July announced another $100 billion investment in Arizona, bringing its planned U.S. investment to roughly $265 billion.

Taiwan’s economy minister said AI and semiconductor orders remain “extremely lively,” encouraging more Taiwanese suppliers to establish operations in the United States. 

Why it mattered today: Semiconductor manufacturing does not exist by itself.

Every major fabrication plant brings suppliers of chemicals, construction, precision machinery, packaging, electrical systems, logistics, clean-room equipment and industrial services.

So another $20 billion of Taiwanese investment could produce business opportunities far beyond the semiconductor companies themselves.

It also strengthens Washington’s attempt to move strategically important electronics manufacturing closer to American customers rather than leaving so much global chip production concentrated in Asia.

Consumers — Jack Daniel’s Owner Says People Are Drinking Less and Spending More Carefully

Brown-Forman, owner of Jack Daniel’s, warned that alcohol demand is likely to remain under pressure across developed markets this year.

First-quarter sales declined 1% to $911 million, slightly below expectations.

The company pointed to several trends: budget-conscious American consumers are making fewer discretionary purchases, greater use of GLP-1 weight-loss medications may be changing drinking habits, and consumers are paying more attention to calories.

Traditional whiskey sales were flat and tequila sales fell 12%, while ready-to-drink products jumped 20%. 

Canada is creating another problem. Brown-Forman expects American-made spirits to remain off shelves in many Canadian provinces for much of the fiscal year amid continuing trade tensions.

Why it mattered today: Alcohol historically has been considered a relatively resilient consumer category.

Weakness there adds to evidence that households are becoming increasingly selective about discretionary spending.

It also shows how consumer behavior is being changed simultaneously by inflation, health trends and trade policy — three forces that are affecting many consumer brands far beyond liquor.

Technology After the Bell — Snowflake and HPE Show Corporate AI Spending Is Still Accelerating

Two important earnings reports arriving immediately after Wednesday’s closing bell offered further evidence that companies are continuing to spend heavily on artificial intelligence.

Snowflake raised its full-year product-revenue forecast to $6.07 billion from $5.84 billion. Second-quarter product revenue jumped 37% to $1.49 billion, while total revenue reached $1.55 billion, ahead of Wall Street expectations. Snowflake shares surged more than 20% in extended trading following the report. 

The significance is that Snowflake sits on the software and data side of AI. Businesses need enormous quantities of organized corporate data before AI applications can actually perform useful work.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise provided the hardware side of the same story.

HPE revenue jumped 33.6% to $12.21 billion, beating expectations, while adjusted earnings reached $1.11 per share. The company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue-growth forecast to 34% to 37%, up from 29% to 33%.

Its CFO said demand for servers and networking equipment is far outstripping supply, with memory chips currently the biggest bottleneck. 

The two reports together matter more than either one individually.

AI spending is no longer showing up only at Nvidia. It is moving through servers, networking, cloud databases, storage, cooling, electricity and enterprise software.

That makes the AI investment cycle increasingly broad — and increasingly important to the entire technology supply chain.

What to Watch Thursday, September 3

Thursday brings a dense economic calendar just one day before the government’s critical August employment report.

At 8:30 a.m. ET, investors will receive weekly jobless claims, the July U.S. trade balance and revised second-quarter productivity and unit-labor-cost figures. The labor-cost number will be particularly important because the Fed wants to know whether wages are rising faster than worker productivity — something that can keep inflation elevated.

At 9:45 a.m. ET, the final S&P Global services reading arrives, followed at 10:00 a.m. ET by the ISM Services Index. Investors will pay especially close attention to the employment and prices-paid components because services make up the overwhelming majority of the U.S. economy. 

There is also a major technology catalyst still coming.

Broadcom is scheduled to report after Wednesday’s close, with its earnings call at 5 p.m. ET. Its first full-session market reaction will come Thursday.

Broadcom has become one of the most important companies in custom AI chips and networking equipment. After Nvidia, Dell, Snowflake and HPE all demonstrated extraordinary AI-related demand, investors will be looking for confirmation that hyperscale customers are continuing to commit enormous amounts of money to AI infrastructure. 

And hanging over everything is Friday, September 4, when the government releases the August jobs report.

With oil near $96, inflation still elevated and the Fed considering another rate increase, a surprisingly strong or weak employment number could rapidly change expectations for the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting.

Bottom Line

Wednesday’s rebound showed that investors are still willing to buy growth and technology aggressively whenever markets pull back.

But underneath the rally, the economy is sending a more complicated message.

Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive. Employers are hiring cautiously. Power grids are being stretched. Oil remains expensive. Borrowing costs remain high.

At the same time, billions of dollars continue moving toward AI servers, cloud computing, semiconductor factories, electricity infrastructure and even the consolidation of ordinary Main Street service businesses.

For business owners and investors, that may be the defining divide heading into the fall: capital remains abundant for sectors investors believe will dominate the future, while ordinary businesses and consumers are becoming increasingly careful with every dollar they spend.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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JBizNews U.S. Market Opening Recap — September 2, 2026 | 10:00 A.M. ET

Wall Street opened mixed Wednesday as investors tried to balance softer U.S. hiring data and another burst of AI optimism against renewed U.S.-Iran fighting, oil near $90 a barrel and Treasury yields hovering near their highest levels in almost three years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 52,829.58, up 62.7 points, or 0.12%. The S&P 500 opened at 7,634.58, up 3.1 points, or 0.04%, while the Nasdaq Composite opened at 26,094.00, down 5.8 points, or 0.02%. By shortly before 10 a.m., buying had strengthened somewhat: the Dow was ahead roughly 189 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 was up about 0.1%, and the Nasdaq remained down roughly 0.1%. 

The morning’s biggest economic report was a clear sign that hiring is losing momentum. ADP said private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August, below the 48,000 economists expected and down from an upwardly revised 46,000 in July. Education and health services added 45,000 jobs, construction added 12,000 and leisure and hospitality added 16,000, but manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs and professional and business services lost 16,000. The report increases the stakes for Friday’s official August employment report, where economists currently expect nonfarm payrolls to rebound by about 56,000 and unemployment to remain near 4.1%. 

The softer employment number would normally push investors toward expectations for easier Federal Reserve policy. This morning, however, that effect is being offset by the inflation threat coming from energy and bonds.

The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.8%, after touching roughly 4.82%, its highest level since late 2023. A further move toward 5% would become increasingly important for stocks because higher bond yields make equities less attractive, increase corporate financing costs and put particular pressure on highly valued growth and AI shares. 

Oil remains the other major market risk. Brent crude had surged as high as $97.04 a barrel overnight and U.S. crude reached $92.29 after the United States and Iran exchanged their most significant military attacks in weeks. Prices later eased, with Brent around $94.22 and West Texas Intermediate near $89.51, after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 17 million barrels of oil had moved through the Strait of Hormuz Monday. The Strait remains the central risk: any serious disruption could quickly push crude back toward or above $100 and intensify inflation pressure. 

Corporate earnings are providing an important counterweight.

Dell Technologies jumped nearly 11% after dramatically raising its annual outlook on surging demand for AI servers. Dell reported record quarterly revenue of $47 billion, above Wall Street expectations, with a record $60 billion of AI-related orders and a $95 billion backlog. The company raised its annual revenue forecast to $192 billion from $167 billion and lifted its adjusted earnings target to $25.50 a share from $17.90. Super Micro Computer and Hewlett Packard Enterprise also moved higher on the read-through for AI infrastructure spending. 

GitLab surged more than 20% after beating earnings and revenue expectations and raising its full-year outlook, reinforcing the idea that AI-driven software development is creating winners beyond the semiconductor sector. 

The other side of that trade is MongoDB, which fell roughly 13% despite reporting better-than-expected earnings and 30% revenue growth. Investors focused instead on Atlas cloud growth holding near 29%, showing how demanding Wall Street has become toward richly valued AI and cloud companies. Credo Technology also dropped about 11%, while Palo Alto Networks slipped following earnings. 

Another major corporate development came from Uber, which said it will eliminate about 3,300 jobs — roughly 10% of its workforce — in its largest round of cuts since the pandemic. Uber said the restructuring will flatten management and speed decision-making as robotaxi competition grows. The company plans to invest more than $10 billion in autonomous-vehicle technology and partnerships in coming years. Uber shares were up more than 2% before the opening bell. 

One additional economic release is arriving right at the 10 a.m. cutoff: the Commerce Department’s July factory-orders report. Consensus expectations call for roughly a 0.6% to 0.7% increase after June’s 0.3% decline. The Census Bureau had not yet populated the new July figure on its official release page at the exact cutoff for this recap, so JBizNews is not inserting an unverified number. 

For the rest of Wednesday, investors have several major items to watch.

At 10:30 a.m. ET, the Energy Information Administration releases weekly U.S. crude inventories, which could move oil sharply given current Middle East tensions. At 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, giving investors a fresh look at business conditions, hiring and inflation across the country. 

Technology investors will also be watching Broadcom’s earnings, while the broader market will remain focused on whether the 10-year Treasury yield moves closer to 5%.

The bigger test arrives Friday with the August jobs report.

For now, Wall Street is caught between two opposing messages: the labor market is cooling, which normally argues against tighter monetary policy, while oil and bond yields are rising, which argues that inflation may remain too strong for the Federal Reserve to relax.

That tension — jobs versus inflation — is likely to determine whether Wednesday’s early Dow rebound holds.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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U.S. Markets — Oil, Bond Yields and Rate Fears Hit Wall Street

September opened with a broad selloff as another surge in oil prices and a global bond-market retreat pushed borrowing costs higher and revived fears that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,772.49, down 413.41 points, or 0.78%. The S&P 500 fell 54.19 points, or 0.71%, to 7,631.95, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 271.11 points, or 1.01%, to 26,099.77. Energy was the strongest S&P 500 sector, transportation stocks were among the weakest, and every company in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index finished lower. 

Brent crude jumped 4.6% to settle at $94.65 a barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.80% and the two-year yield reached 4.39%. Futures markets put the probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase in September at roughly two-thirds. 

For business owners, today’s combination is particularly uncomfortable: more expensive energy raises transportation and production costs while higher Treasury yields push up mortgages, commercial loans and corporate financing at the same time.

Economy & Main Street — Factories Are Growing, but Businesses Are Feeling the Cost Squeeze

U.S. manufacturing remained in expansion territory during August, but momentum slowed and manufacturers reported intense pressure from higher input costs.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July. Anything above 50 signals expansion, so American factories are still growing. But new orders weakened, supplier deliveries slowed and 58% of comments submitted by manufacturers were negative.

Steel and aluminum prices, tariffs, longer lead times, energy costs and shortages tied to the AI infrastructure boom were among the concerns reported by businesses. 

The labor market told a similar story of an economy that is not collapsing but is becoming less dynamic.

Job openings rose by 89,000 to 7.271 million in July, but the previous month was revised sharply lower. Hiring dropped by 278,000 to 5.054 million, while layoffs also declined.

That leaves the country in something close to a no-hire, no-fire economy: companies are reluctant to add workers, but most are not cutting aggressively either. 

Why it mattered today: This is a difficult combination for the Fed. Manufacturing continues expanding and layoffs remain low enough to tolerate tighter monetary policy, while businesses are simultaneously warning that their costs are rising. That strengthens the argument for another rate increase even as hiring slows.

Housing & Construction — U.S. Building Spending Falls to Nearly Three-Year Low

The housing slowdown deepened in July.

Total U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell 0.5% to an annualized $2.158 trillion, the lowest level since October 2023 and 3.8% below a year earlier.

Residential construction fell 1.3%, with single-family home construction plunging 3.2% in one month and 6.5% from a year earlier.

The average 30-year mortgage rate remains around 6.66%, making new homes increasingly difficult for buyers to afford and more difficult for developers to finance. 

There was another important warning inside the report: factory construction is down 21.7% from a year ago.

The enormous wave of semiconductor and manufacturing projects launched after the CHIPS Act is losing momentum even as spending on power infrastructure continues rising.

Why it mattered today: Housing touches an enormous section of the economy — contractors, lumber, appliances, furniture, mortgage lenders, real estate agents and local retailers. Higher rates are now visibly reducing activity, and another Fed increase would make the financing problem more severe.

Banking & Payments — Goldman, Bank of America and Citi Move Into Stablecoins Together

Twenty-one major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi and Deutsche Bank, announced plans to create a company this year that will issue a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin during the first half of 2027.

The group also wants eventually to issue tokens tied to other major currencies, with the euro its first priority. 

The significance is not cryptocurrency speculation.

Stablecoins are increasingly being viewed as a potentially cheaper and faster infrastructure for moving money between businesses, banks and countries. Until now, that market has been dominated by crypto-native companies such as Tether, which has more than $180 billion of its dollar-pegged token outstanding.

Now some of the world’s largest traditional banks want their own version.

Why it mattered today: If bank-backed digital dollars gain adoption, stablecoins could move from crypto trading into mainstream payments, international transfers, treasury management and eventually everyday business transactions. The banks are essentially preparing for a world in which money itself travels more like digital information.

Consumer Brands — Nestlé Sells Nature’s Bounty and Other Vitamin Brands for $1 Billion

Nestlé agreed to sell a portfolio of mainstream vitamin and supplement brands to private-equity firm Yellow Wood Partners for $1 billion.

The sale includes Nature’s Bounty, Osteo Bi-Flex, Ester-C, Nuun, Puritan’s Pride, Sisu and Gard, along with Nestlé’s U.S. private-label supplements business.

Those operations generated approximately $1.2 billion in sales last year. Nestlé had acquired several of the brands as part of a much larger $5.75 billion acquisition in 2021. It will retain premium supplement brand Solgar. 

Why it mattered today: The deal reflects a broader change across major consumer companies. Rather than owning dozens of middle-market brands, companies such as Nestlé and Unilever are increasingly concentrating resources behind products where they believe they have stronger pricing power and higher margins.

For private equity, those discarded household names can become attractive opportunities precisely because they already have distribution, customers and recognizable brands.

Technology & Media — Google May Have to Let Publishers Say No to AI Without Losing Search Traffic

European regulators are questioning publishers about Google’s proposed system that would allow websites to opt out of having their material used in Google’s AI search products without being punished in traditional Google search rankings.

Publishers have argued that Google’s AI-generated summaries can answer users’ questions directly, reducing the number of people who click through to the websites that actually produced the information.

Google says it plans to make its opt-out mechanism available globally. 

Why it mattered today: This gets directly to the economic fight underneath AI search.

Publishers, retailers, review sites and countless other businesses spent two decades building their businesses around Google sending them visitors. AI search risks changing that bargain by using information from those websites while sending fewer customers back.

If regulators successfully force a meaningful opt-out, businesses may gain considerably more bargaining power over how their content is used by AI platforms.

Agriculture & Food — USDA Turns to Satellites and AI After Farmers Lose Faith in Crop Numbers

The Agriculture Department announced a pilot program using satellite imagery, geospatial technology, crop modeling, artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve its estimates of how much American farmers are planting and producing.

The changes follow growing criticism from farmers and commodity traders that USDA crop estimates have become less reliable.

That criticism matters because government acreage and yield estimates can move corn, soybean and wheat prices almost instantly. Earlier this year, grain prices fell more than 5% following one major USDA revision. 

The agency also wants to reduce the number of repetitive surveys farmers must complete while providing greater transparency about how its estimates are calculated.

Why it mattered today: Government crop statistics help determine commodity prices, farm income, food costs, insurance payouts and federal agricultural programs. More accurate estimates would not simply help farmers — they could improve pricing throughout the food supply chain.

Healthcare — Novartis Scores a Potential Blockbuster Multiple-Sclerosis Win

Novartis reported positive late-stage results for its oral multiple-sclerosis drug remibrutinib, which outperformed an older treatment in reducing relapses and also showed meaningful improvement in slowing disability progression.

The company plans to seek regulatory approvals globally.

Novartis shares rose about 4%, and analysts estimate the drug could eventually generate as much as $9 billion in annual sales across multiple diseases if its broader development program succeeds. 

Why it mattered today: Pharmaceutical companies constantly need new products to replace billions of dollars in sales lost when older blockbuster medicines face generic competition. Successful late-stage drugs can therefore change an entire company’s long-term earnings outlook.

For patients, an effective oral treatment could also provide an alternative to more complicated therapies used to control multiple sclerosis.

Corporate Deals — GoPro Surges After $285 Million Rescue Deal

Action-camera pioneer GoPro jumped more than 50% after optical-equipment company Starman Optical agreed to take a 90% stake in the business through a $285 million cash transaction.

The deal will also repay approximately $92 million of GoPro debt.

GoPro was once valued at roughly $4 billion, but its market value collapsed as smartphone cameras improved and Chinese competitors gained ground.

Starman makes optical transceivers used in AI data centers and sees opportunities to combine its technology with GoPro’s portfolio of more than 2,500 U.S. imaging and optics patents. 

Why it mattered today: It is an unusual example of the AI infrastructure boom reaching into a struggling consumer-electronics company. Starman is effectively buying GoPro’s brand, engineering capability and intellectual property while giving GoPro a financial lifeline.

Key Market Movers

Company / Sector

Move

Why

GoPro

More than +50%

$285 million Starman Optical transaction

AMD

Down about 3% in late trading

Higher yields pressured AI and semiconductor stocks

Microsoft

Down roughly 1%

Technology sold off as borrowing costs rose

Energy stocks

Among the day’s few winners

Brent crude surged to $94.65

Semiconductors

Broad decline

Every Philadelphia Semiconductor Index component finished lower

Transportation

Among the weakest groups

Higher fuel costs and economic concerns pressured the sector

Technology’s weakness is especially important because much of the AI buildout depends on extraordinarily large capital expenditures. The higher long-term interest rates move, the more expensive financing those investments becomes. 

What to Watch Wednesday, September 2

The first major number arrives at 8:15 a.m. ET with the ADP private-employment report for August. After Tuesday’s weak hiring numbers, investors will be looking for confirmation that companies are becoming more cautious about adding employees.

At 10:00 a.m. ET, July factory-orders data will offer another look at business investment and manufacturing demand.

Then at 2:00 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, the nationwide survey of economic conditions gathered from businesses around the country. With markets increasingly expecting a September rate increase, comments about prices, hiring, wages and consumer demand will receive unusual attention. 

After the closing bell comes one of the week’s biggest corporate tests: Broadcom reports quarterly earnings Wednesday evening.

Broadcom sits at the center of AI networking and custom semiconductor demand. Investors will be watching not simply whether it beats quarterly expectations, but what CEO Hock Tan says about future orders from hyperscale data-center customers.

After Nvidia’s enormous forecast last week, Broadcom will provide a second major reading on whether the AI spending boom is continuing across the broader semiconductor supply chain. 

Bottom Line

Tuesday delivered a fairly clear message.

The American economy is still growing, but the cost of keeping it growing is becoming more expensive.

Factories remain in expansion, employers are not conducting mass layoffs and enormous amounts of money continue moving into technology and infrastructure. But hiring is weakening, construction is slowing, oil is approaching $95 and borrowing costs are climbing again.

For businesses, the biggest risk is increasingly the combination rather than any single problem: higher energy costs, higher financing costs and still-elevated input prices arriving at the same time consumers and employers are becoming more cautious.

And for investors, Wednesday brings another test of the divide dominating markets — a slowing traditional economy on one side and an AI investment boom still consuming extraordinary amounts of capital on the other.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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JBizNews U.S. Market Opening Recap — September 1, 2026 | 10:00 A.M. ET

Wall Street opened September under pressure Tuesday as surging oil prices, another jump in Treasury yields and renewed inflation fears hit technology shares and revived concerns that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 53,083.58, down 102.3 points, or 0.19%. The S&P 500 opened at 7,635.47, down 50.7 points, or 0.66%, while the Nasdaq Composite opened at 26,031.67, down 339.2 points, or 1.29%. Selling accelerated after the bell: by 9:54 a.m. ET, the Dow was down about 302 points, the S&P 500 was off 0.7% and the Nasdaq was down 1.1%. 

The biggest pressure is coming from the combination of oil and interest rates. Brent crude climbed roughly 2.5% to around $92.74 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil-shipping routes. Higher energy costs are feeding directly into fears that inflation could stay elevated longer than expected. 

Bond markets are reinforcing that concern. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.78% from 4.75% Monday, while the two-year yield climbed to roughly 4.37% from 4.34%. Higher yields raise borrowing costs throughout the economy and particularly pressure expensive technology stocks whose valuations depend heavily on future earnings. 

Technology was among the morning’s weakest areas. Nvidia fell about 1.7% and Micron Technology dropped roughly 2.1% in early trading. Nvidia and Caterpillar were also among the largest individual drags on the Dow. Energy shares were comparatively stronger as crude prices climbed. 

The morning also brought a significant new development in the AI infrastructure boom. SoftBank-backed SB Energy filed for a U.S. initial public offering, revealing first-half revenue of $138.7 million, up 66.4% from a year earlier, alongside a $3.21 billion net loss. Nvidia has committed $1.5 billion to a private placement tied to the IPO, while OpenAI holds warrants valued at roughly $5.5 billion. SB Energy disclosed a backlog of approximately $439 billion, highlighting both the enormous capital flowing toward AI data centers and the increasingly aggressive financial commitments behind that expansion. 

The morning economic calendar is unusually concentrated. S&P Global’s final August U.S. Manufacturing PMI was scheduled for 9:45 a.m. ET, followed at 10 a.m. by the August ISM Manufacturing Index, July JOLTS job openings and July construction spending. Those releases are particularly important because investors are now judging whether economic strength and persistent inflation give the Fed room to tighten policy again. At the 10 a.m. cutoff for this recap, the official BLS, Census and ISM pages available for verification had not yet populated the new figures, so JBizNews is not publishing unconfirmed calendar numbers as actual results. 

The stakes are higher after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks last Friday. A strong manufacturing report or resilient labor-demand reading could push Treasury yields even higher by strengthening the case for another rate increase. A meaningful slowdown would give investors some relief by reducing that pressure.

For the rest of Tuesday, oil and Treasury yields remain the two numbers to watch first. If Brent stays above $90 and the 10-year Treasury holds near 4.8%, technology, housing, consumer and other rate-sensitive sectors could remain under pressure. Any escalation involving Iran or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could quickly push energy prices higher again.

Investors will also watch whether the early technology selloff broadens beyond Nvidia and Micron, whether energy stocks continue to outperform, and how markets digest the morning’s manufacturing and labor data once fully absorbed.

Corporate earnings return to center stage after the closing bell, with Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks and MongoDB among the companies scheduled to report. Those results will provide another test of spending on AI infrastructure, enterprise technology and cybersecurity. 

The larger test comes Friday, September 4, with the August employment report. Between now and then, every economic release will be measured against one question that has suddenly returned to the center of the market: Is the economy strong enough — and inflation stubborn enough — for the Federal Reserve to raise rates again?

For now, Wall Street’s answer is showing up clearly in the opening trade: oil up, yields up, technology down and investors taking risk off the table.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Markets — Oil Above $90 Pushes Stocks Lower and Rate-Hike Bets Higher

Wall Street finished August on the defensive Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting pushed crude oil sharply higher and added another inflation problem for investors already preparing for the possibility of a September Federal Reserve rate increase.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,179.77, down 380.22 points, or 0.71%. The S&P 500 finished at 7,684.37, down 27.39 points, or 0.36%, while the Nasdaq Composite ended at 26,360.91, down 41.51 points, or 0.16%. All three indexes nevertheless finished August with gains, and the Dow recorded its fifth consecutive positive month. 

Brent crude settled at $90.49 a barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield moved to roughly 4.76%. Futures markets were pricing roughly a two-thirds probability of a quarter-point Fed rate increase in September. 

For businesses, the connection is straightforward: higher oil raises transportation, manufacturing and delivery costs, while higher Treasury yields feed directly into mortgages, commercial loans and corporate borrowing.

AI Advertising — ChatGPT Ads Reach a $1 Billion Run Rate

OpenAI said Monday that ChatGPT Ads has reached a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate, only months after the company began testing advertising inside ChatGPT.

The company is now opening its Ads Manager to advertisers across India, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa after initially launching it in the United States. OpenAI said small and midsize businesses already represent a meaningful share of advertisers using the platform. 

This matters well beyond OpenAI.

Google and Meta have dominated digital advertising for years because businesses follow consumer attention. ChatGPT is now demonstrating that conversational AI can become another major place where businesses pay to reach customers.

For small businesses in particular, this could eventually create a third major advertising channel alongside search and social media.

The $1 billion figure is an annualized pace, not $1 billion already collected this year. But reaching that level this quickly shows how aggressively OpenAI is trying to monetize its enormous user base ahead of a potential public offering.

Insurance — Aon Makes a $17 Billion Bet on the American Middle Market

Aon agreed to buy USI Insurance Services for $17 billion from KKR, one of the largest insurance-brokerage transactions in recent years.

USI is the 10th-largest U.S. insurance broker, with roughly $3 billion in annual revenue, more than 10,500 employees and nearly 200 offices. The acquisition follows Aon’s $13 billion purchase of NFP in 2024 and dramatically expands its reach among midsize American businesses. 

Aon shares fell roughly 9% as investors focused on the price of the transaction and the additional debt needed to finance it.

For business owners, this consolidation matters because insurance brokers increasingly control access to commercial property, casualty, employee-benefit and specialty insurance markets.

Larger brokers can bring more negotiating power and data to clients, but fewer independent competitors can also mean businesses have fewer places to shop for coverage.

AI Infrastructure — An Oilfield Giant Makes a $4.1 Billion Data-Center Move

SLB, historically one of the world’s largest oilfield-services companies, agreed to acquire German cooling-equipment manufacturer Kelvion in a transaction worth about $4.1 billion, including assumed debt.

The reason is not oil.

It is artificial intelligence.

Kelvion provides cooling equipment increasingly used inside data centers, where high-powered AI chips generate enormous amounts of heat. SLB expects its combined data-center businesses could produce $4.5 billion to $5 billion in annual revenue by 2028. SLB shares rose roughly 3.8% Monday. 

The deal shows how far the AI investment boom is spreading.

The money is no longer flowing only to Nvidia, cloud providers and software companies. It is reaching cooling systems, electricity generation, construction, engineering and industrial equipment.

For traditional industrial companies, AI infrastructure is becoming a diversification strategy in its own right.

Semiconductors — Nvidia Invests $3.5 Billion in MediaTek

Nvidia disclosed a $3.5 billion investment in Taiwan’s MediaTek through convertible bonds, deepening a partnership that now spans artificial-intelligence chips, personal computers and vehicles.

MediaTek customers will be able to use Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion technology to build custom AI processors that connect directly with Nvidia-powered computing systems. Alphabet also participated in MediaTek’s bond offering, although the size of its investment was not disclosed. 

The strategic logic is clear: Nvidia wants more companies designing products that ultimately connect back into Nvidia’s architecture.

The financial structure, however, is attracting attention.

Nvidia is increasingly financing companies and projects that also generate demand for Nvidia technology. Investors are beginning to ask whether some AI-industry growth is becoming circular — where suppliers finance customers who then spend part of that money buying the suppliers’ products.

That does not make the demand artificial, but it is becoming an increasingly important question for investors trying to value the AI boom.

Cybersecurity — Global Watchdog Says AI Cyber Risk Is Now the Immediate Financial Threat

The Financial Stability Board warned Monday that AI-driven cybersecurity risk is its most immediate concern for the global financial system.

FSB Chair Andrew Bailey said advanced AI could dramatically change the speed, scale and economics of cyberattacks. Regulators are particularly concerned that banks and financial institutions depend heavily on a relatively small number of technology providers, creating concentrated vulnerabilities if one major system is compromised. 

For businesses, the significance is practical.

AI can help attackers find vulnerabilities faster, automate attacks and operate at a scale that previously required large teams.

That means cybersecurity spending is increasingly becoming a basic operating expense rather than simply an IT department issue.

Insurers are also beginning to rewrite cyber policies as AI changes the types of risks businesses face.

Corporate Governance — SEC Moves Toward Ending Federal Shareholder-Proposal Rules

The Securities and Exchange Commission took a significant step Monday toward potentially eliminating the federal rule governing shareholder proposals at public companies and handing greater authority to individual states.

The current rule allows qualifying investors to require companies to include certain shareholder proposals in annual proxy materials. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has questioned whether the agency has legal authority to impose the rule and is considering rescinding it. 

The change could significantly reduce the ability of smaller shareholders and activist investors to force votes on executive compensation, environmental policies, corporate governance and other issues.

It could also create a patchwork system.

Texas, for example, has adopted rules that in some cases could require an investor to own as much as $1 million of stock before submitting a proposal, compared with federal thresholds that can begin around $2,000.

For corporate boards, this could substantially reduce shareholder resolutions. For investors, it could shift more influence toward large institutions capable of meeting state thresholds.

Consumers — August Becomes the Most Expensive August Ever at the Gas Pump

Average U.S. gasoline prices remained above $4 a gallon every day during August, according to AAA data cited by the Associated Press.

That made August 2026 the most expensive August for gasoline on record. 

For households, gasoline acts almost like a tax: the more consumers spend getting to work, school and stores, the less money remains for restaurants, clothing, entertainment and other discretionary purchases.

For businesses, the effect travels through delivery fleets, trucking, airlines, food distribution and virtually every supply chain.

That is why the oil market is now connected directly to the Federal Reserve debate.

If energy costs continue spreading into broader inflation, policymakers could feel forced to raise rates even as the labor market is slowing.

Key Market Movers

Aon fell roughly 9% following its $17 billion USI acquisition. SLB gained about 3% to 4% after announcing its Kelvion deal. GameStop rose roughly 3% after projecting higher quarterly profit despite falling sales, largely because of investment gains. Exxon Mobil gained about 2.1% and Chevron rose around 1.5% as crude prices jumped. Nvidia gained about 1% following the MediaTek investment announcement. 

The biggest losers were utility companies, although that California wildfire-liability development was already part of JBizNews coverage Monday.

What to Watch Tuesday, September 1

Tuesday brings several reports capable of moving both stocks and interest-rate expectations.

At 9:45 a.m. ET, investors get the final August U.S. manufacturing PMI. At 10:00 a.m., the more closely watched ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to show continued factory expansion, while the JOLTS job-openings report will provide another look at whether employers are still competing heavily for workers. 

Those numbers matter more than usual because markets are now pricing a substantial probability of a Fed rate increase in September. Strong manufacturing or labor numbers could strengthen that case; unexpectedly weak numbers could complicate it.

Corporate earnings also return Tuesday.

Medtronic reports before the opening bell, while Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, MongoDB and Credo Technology are among companies expected to report after the close. Dell will provide another important reading on AI-server demand, while Palo Alto Networks offers a direct view into corporate cybersecurity spending. 

Bottom Line

Monday’s market decline was not particularly large, but the business signals underneath it were.

Oil is again above $90, borrowing costs are rising, and the Fed may be moving toward another rate hike. At the same time, billions of dollars continue flowing into AI advertising, semiconductors, data-center infrastructure and cybersecurity.

The economy entering September is increasingly split between businesses struggling with higher operating and financing costs and industries attracting extraordinary amounts of capital because of artificial intelligence.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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A bet is a bet, no matter what the app calls it.

That was the finding of a three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Aug. 28, which ruled unanimously that Nevada’s gaming regulators may oversee the prediction market Kalshi. The decision hands states the power to police prediction platforms the same way they police sportsbooks, and it lands hard on a business that has grown by arguing it is something else entirely.

Kalshi sells contracts on the outcome of events, including games. Buy a contract that a team wins, and it pays out if the team wins. The company’s position has been that those contracts are financial instruments called swaps, traded on a market that answers only to the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and therefore beyond the reach of any state gaming board.

Circuit Judge Ryan Nelson, writing for the panel, rejected that. He wrote that what Kalshi offers is sports gambling regardless of the label the company puts on it, and that federal commodities law does not push state gaming rules aside. Judges Kenneth Kiyul Lee and Bridget Bade joined him. All three were appointed by President Trump, who has backed prediction markets and favored exclusive federal oversight of them.

The case grew out of a lawsuit the Nevada Gaming Control Board brought earlier this year accusing Kalshi of running unlicensed gambling in the state with the largest gaming revenue in the country. Board Chair Mike Dreitzer said the ruling confirms the state’s position that this is sports betting and belongs under state regulation.

Kalshi said it will seek further review. A spokeswoman said the company still reads the federal rules as permitting sports contracts and noted that the commission is working to clarify them.

The ruling now collides with an April decision from the Third Circuit, which let Kalshi keep operating in New Jersey while its appeal moves ahead and found the company likely to win its federal preemption argument. Two appeals courts have now reached opposite conclusions, which is the classic setup for the Supreme Court to step in.

Until it does, the map is split. Twenty states are in active litigation over whether they can regulate these platforms, and last month 44 states signed a letter telling the commission it has no authority over sports-related event contracts. Friday’s decision makes it easier for the states pressing that case to move.

For anyone trading on these apps, the practical question is now geography. What is a federally regulated contract in one state may be unlicensed gambling in the next, and the answer will vary by jurisdiction until the Supreme Court settles it.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Friday produced major business developments across food, employment, interest rates, payments, artificial intelligence, healthcare, autos and emerging technology.

Washington moved toward changing how American beef can be processed and sold. New employment revisions showed private-sector hiring was weaker than previously believed. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh kept another rate increase firmly in play. PayPal lost nearly 13% after a $53 billion takeover effort collapsed. Anthropic won a significant court victory against the Pentagon. Walmart settled a long-running federal opioid case. Toyota reported a 24% collapse in China sales. And a quantum-computing company with only about $19 million in annual revenue reached a roughly $2 billion public valuation.

Food & Agriculture — Washington Targets the Beef-Processing Bottleneck

A potentially significant change is coming to the way American beef gets from a ranch to a supermarket.

President Donald Trump said Friday that he is preparing a legal order aimed at giving farmers and ranchers greater ability to process and sell their own meat rather than relying on the handful of enormous companies that dominate U.S. beef processing.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the administration intends to begin making major beef-processing announcements on Monday, August 31, including measures designed to make interstate sales easier, expand opportunities for smaller processors and rescind regulations the administration considers outdated.

The concentration is enormous.

Four companies — Cargill, Tyson Foods, JBS USA and National Beef — control roughly 85% of U.S. meat processing.

That means a cattle rancher can raise the animal but often still needs access to a federally inspected processor before the beef can be sold broadly to consumers.

If Washington can legally create more room for smaller processors, it could give ranchers another route to market and create opportunities for regional slaughterhouses, refrigerated logistics companies and independent food distributors.

Whether it lowers supermarket prices is much less certain.

Large meatpacking plants achieve efficiencies precisely because of their scale. Industry groups are also warning that loosening processing requirements cannot come at the expense of federal food-safety inspection.

So Friday’s announcement is not yet a new meat system.

But it could become the beginning of an important fight over who controls the middle of America’s food supply chain — and how much of every beef dollar stays with the farmer versus the processor.

Jobs & Economy — America Had 178,000 Fewer Private Jobs Than Previously Estimated

A quieter government release Friday contained an important correction to the employment picture.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its preliminary annual benchmark indicates that total U.S. payroll employment in March was 79,000 lower than previously estimated.

That overall adjustment is relatively small — just 0.1% of total employment and below the average absolute benchmark revision of 0.2% over the past decade.

But underneath the headline, private employment was revised down by a larger 178,000 jobs.

The difference was partly offset by approximately 99,000 additional government jobs.

For employers and investors, the private-sector number is more revealing because it suggests businesses had been hiring somewhat less aggressively than the monthly jobs reports indicated.

Retail employment was substantially weaker than previously estimated, as were parts of manufacturing, wholesale trade, professional services, education and healthcare. Transportation and warehousing, financial activities and several other sectors were revised higher.

These figures are preliminary. BLS will not alter the official historical employment series until the final benchmark is incorporated in February 2027.

The timing matters because the Federal Reserve is deciding whether the economy can tolerate higher rates.

Warsh sees a labor market close to full employment. Friday’s benchmark says the overall picture remains relatively strong, but private hiring was softer than previously believed.

That makes next Friday’s August employment report considerably more important.

Rates & Consumers — Warsh Keeps Another Rate Hike in Play

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole address Friday to make clear that the central bank is not declaring victory over inflation.

Warsh said inflation remains significantly above target, with the Fed’s preferred PCE measure running 3.7% over the past 12 months and 4.1% on a six-month basis.

He described the labor market as broadly stable and said overall financial conditions do not appear particularly restrictive.

His message was straightforward: the Fed must be confident inflation is moving clearly and sufficiently quickly toward 2%. Otherwise, policymakers still have work to do.

Warsh stopped short of promising a September rate increase, but investors took the speech as a warning that another hike remains possible.

That matters directly to businesses and consumers.

Another rate increase would mean continued pressure on mortgages, commercial real estate loans, credit cards, vehicle financing and small-business borrowing.

Consumer confidence also remains weak.

The University of Michigan’s final August Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51.7 from 55.2 in July, leaving confidence 11.2% below a year ago. Thirty-six percent of consumers now identify inflation as the more serious economic hardship, up from 23% at the beginning of the year.

Payments & M&A — PayPal Loses Its $53 Billion Buyer

One of Friday’s largest individual stock moves came from a deal that did not happen.

A consortium led by private-equity firm Advent International and payments giant Stripe abandoned its pursuit of PayPal.

The group had offered approximately $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at more than $53 billion.

PayPal shares collapsed 12.7% Friday as investors removed the takeover premium from the stock.

The story is remarkable when viewed against PayPal’s history.

At the height of the pandemic-era digital-payment boom in 2021, the company was worth approximately $360 billion.

Its problem today is not that online payments disappeared. It is that competition became much stronger.

Apple Pay, Shop Pay, Google Pay and other payment options increasingly sit directly between merchants and customers. PayPal must now prove that its enormous customer network, Venmo business and checkout infrastructure can grow strongly enough on their own.

New CEO Enrique Lores is reorganizing PayPal around checkout, consumer financial services — including Venmo — and payments and cryptocurrency.

The abandoned takeover means investors will now judge that turnaround without a buyer waiting in the wings.

For business owners accepting digital payments, this is another indication that the payments industry is entering a new competitive phase. The company that once largely defined online checkout is now fighting to defend its place at the register.

AI & Government — Anthropic Wins a Major Fight With the Pentagon

A federal judge delivered an important victory Friday to Anthropic, the company behind Claude.

U.S. District Judge Rita Lin blocked the Pentagon from designating Anthropic a national-security supply-chain risk, calling the government’s action unlawful.

The dispute arose after Anthropic refused to permit Claude to be used for certain U.S. surveillance activities or fully autonomous weapons. The Pentagon subsequently placed the company under an obscure procurement designation normally associated with supply-chain threats.

Anthropic argued that the label could cost it billions of dollars in business and reputational damage.

The significance extends well beyond one AI company.

Washington is becoming one of the world’s largest buyers of artificial intelligence. At the same time, AI developers are trying to decide what limits they place on how their systems can be used.

If refusing a particular military use meant losing access to government contracts across an entire company, Washington would have enormous leverage over those restrictions.

Friday’s ruling establishes an early judicial limit on that power.

A separate Anthropic case involving another government designation that could affect civilian contracts remains unresolved.

For the rapidly growing AI industry, this could become an important precedent in determining who ultimately controls the permissible uses of commercial artificial intelligence: the technology company, its customer or the government writing the contract.

Healthcare & Legal — Walmart Ends a Major Federal Opioid Case

Walmart quietly removed a significant legal threat Friday.

The retailer reached a settlement with the U.S. Justice Department over allegations that its pharmacies unlawfully dispensed opioid prescriptions in violation of the Controlled Substances Act.

The federal government filed the case in 2020 and alleged violations stretching back to 2013.

The financial terms of Friday’s settlement were not disclosed.

That is important because the potential penalties had once run into billions of dollars.

A federal judge narrowed the case in 2024 but allowed major government claims to continue, including allegations that Walmart pharmacists filled prescriptions even when company compliance personnel allegedly knew they were invalid.

This case is separate from the $3.1 billion settlement Walmart agreed to in 2022 with state and local governments over opioid-related claims.

For Walmart, settlement removes another long-running uncertainty from a pharmacy business that serves millions of customers.

For every company operating in healthcare, the broader lesson is about compliance risk.

A profitable transaction completed today can produce litigation years later if regulators conclude the company should have identified warning signs.

Autos — Toyota’s China Sales Collapse 24%

Toyota delivered another warning Friday about how dramatically the global automobile market is diverging by region.

The world’s largest automaker said global vehicle sales fell 4.8% in July to 856,125 vehicles, while global production declined 2.1% from a year earlier.

China was the biggest problem.

Toyota sales there plunged 24.3%, marking the company’s sixth consecutive monthly decline. Production in China fell an even steeper 32.7%.

U.S. sales slipped 0.8%, while Middle East sales collapsed 44.5%.

Japan moved in the opposite direction, with sales rising 11% and production increasing 12.4%.

Toyota has relied heavily on hybrids while many Chinese competitors moved aggressively into battery-powered electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

Higher gasoline prices are now making that positioning more difficult in China, at exactly the moment domestic manufacturers are competing intensely on price and technology.

For suppliers, dealers and investors, Toyota’s report shows why talking about “the auto market” as one business increasingly makes little sense.

The same manufacturer can be growing double digits in Japan while losing nearly a quarter of its sales in China.

Quantum Computing — A $19 Million Business Reaches a $2 Billion Valuation

The next speculative technology boom officially reached Nasdaq Friday.

French quantum-computing company Pasqal surged on its first day of public trading after completing a merger with Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II.

The transaction valued Pasqal at approximately $2 billion and delivered about $360 million in new cash to expand the company.

Its shares rose as much as 73% intraday and were still roughly 40% higher later in the session.

Here is what makes that valuation striking: Pasqal generated only approximately €16.5 million, or $19 million, in revenue during 2025.

Investors are therefore not paying for today’s business.

They are paying for what quantum computing might become.

Traditional computers process information in bits that are either 0 or 1. Quantum systems use quantum states that can represent and manipulate information in fundamentally different ways, potentially allowing certain extremely complex calculations to be solved much faster.

Pasqal uses neutral atoms as the physical foundation for its machines and is targeting applications including drug discovery, finance and industrial optimization.

It has deployed only seven quantum computers so far, although its factories in France and Canada can currently produce as many as 13 machines annually. Saudi Aramco is among its customers.

That makes Friday’s debut both exciting and risky.

Commercial quantum computing remains extremely early. Error rates remain a major problem, and nobody yet knows when quantum machines will consistently outperform conventional computers on commercially valuable work.

Yet investors just placed a multibillion-dollar public valuation on one of the companies trying.

That tells businesses and investors where some of the capital searching for the “next AI” is beginning to move.

Energy — Oil Ends a Difficult Week Below $90

Oil prices slipped again Friday.

Brent crude settled at $89.31 a barrel, down 39 cents, while West Texas Intermediate finished at $83.40, down 13 cents.

For the week, Brent fell more than 5% and WTI lost more than 4%.

The decline came despite continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets are weighing signs that alternative flows and diplomatic efforts could improve supply against the fact that actual shipping through the strait remains severely disrupted.

Warsh’s hawkish Fed message added another downward force because higher interest rates can weaken economic demand and strengthen the dollar.

For businesses, oil below $90 provides some relief for transportation and fuel costs.

But the geopolitical discount remains fragile.

A meaningful reopening of Hormuz could drive energy costs lower. A renewed deterioration could reverse that move quickly.

Markets — Major Movers Reflect the Day’s Biggest Business Stories

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,559.99, down 9.45 points, or 0.02%.

The S&P 500 fell 19.23 points, or 0.25%, to 7,711.76, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 138.93 points, or 0.52%, to 26,402.42.

The Russell 2000 fell 41.97 points, or 1.4%, to 2,972.37.

Among the biggest movers, Nvidia fell 4.6%, Marvell Technology plunged 10.3%, and PayPal dropped 12.7%.

Alphabet rose about 1.7% and Salesforce gained approximately 1.6%.

Despite Friday’s decline, the major indexes still finished the week higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow each gaining roughly 0.5% and the Nasdaq up around 0.8%.

The Russell 2000 fell about 1.5% for the week, reflecting renewed pressure on smaller businesses from higher interest-rate expectations.

What to Watch Next

There is no U.S. stock-market session Saturday, August 29, so the next major moves will come from developments over the weekend and Monday’s opening.

The first issue to watch is the Strait of Hormuz. Any confirmed agreement that materially increases shipping could push oil lower when futures reopen. A breakdown in talks could quickly send prices the other way.

Then on Monday, August 31, watch Washington’s promised beef-processing announcements. The exact legal mechanism will determine whether the administration is creating a meaningful new opening for independent processors and ranchers or something much narrower.

China also releases another important read on manufacturing. A continued factory contraction would matter for commodities, machinery, autos, luxury goods and American multinational companies selling into China.

Next week then quickly becomes a U.S. labor-market week.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July JOLTS job-opening data Tuesday, September 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET, followed by the August Employment Situation Friday, September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

After Warsh’s Friday message, that jobs report could become one of the most important economic releases of the month.

Strong employment could give the Fed more room to raise rates to fight inflation.

A visibly weakening labor market could make that decision considerably more difficult.

Friday’s broader business message was spread across very different industries.

Food policy could change how ranchers reach consumers. Employment revisions showed private hiring was softer than believed. Interest-rate risk remains elevated. PayPal showed how quickly a takeover premium can disappear. Anthropic’s court victory could shape the relationship between AI companies and government. Walmart removed a major legal risk. Toyota showed how difficult China has become for foreign automakers. And Pasqal demonstrated how aggressively investors are betting on quantum computing.

The common thread is capital, competition and control — who owns the customer, who controls the technology, who reaches the market, and who carries the risk.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Markets & Interest Rates — Stocks Slip, but Bonds Send the Bigger Warning

Wall Street ended Friday modestly lower after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh made clear that the Fed remains focused on bringing inflation back toward its 2% target.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,559.99, down 9.45 points, or 0.02%.

The S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.52% to 26,402.42.

The declines were relatively small, but the bigger reaction came in interest-rate expectations.

Investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve could keep rates elevated longer — or potentially raise them again — if inflation fails to cool sufficiently.

That matters directly to businesses because higher-for-longer rates keep pressure on commercial loans, mortgages, credit cards, real-estate financing and corporate borrowing.

Among Friday’s major movers, Gap surged about 13.5%, while PayPal fell roughly 12%, Marvell Technology dropped about 10%, and Nvidia declined around 4% following Thursday’s powerful AI-driven rally.

Health & Pharmaceuticals — Mounjaro Gets a Much Bigger Medical Opportunity

The FDA approved Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro to reduce the risk of heart attack and stroke in adults with type 2 diabetes who are at high cardiovascular risk.

That takes Mounjaro beyond simply lowering blood sugar.

A major clinical trial showed the drug reduced serious cardiovascular events more effectively than Lilly’s older Trulicity treatment.

Mounjaro is already one of the fastest-growing medicines in the world, with quarterly sales approaching $10 billion.

The approval could strengthen Lilly’s argument to insurers, employers and government health programs that GLP-1 medicines can prevent expensive medical events rather than simply treat diabetes or obesity.

That could materially expand insurance coverage and the long-term size of the GLP-1 market.

Biotech — BioNTech Cancer Vaccine Suffers a Significant Setback

BioNTech stopped a mid-stage trial of its personalized mRNA colorectal-cancer vaccine after an independent monitoring committee concluded the treatment was unlikely to improve survival.

Investigators also observed a numerical imbalance in survival between the vaccine group and the control group.

BioNTech shares fell sharply following the announcement.

The result does not mean mRNA cancer vaccines cannot work. Other companies have shown encouraging results in different cancers.

But it is a reminder that the enormous investment flowing into personalized cancer vaccines remains scientifically risky.

For investors, it is a meaningful read-through across the emerging mRNA-oncology industry.

Quantum Computing — Pasqal Surges in Nasdaq Debut

French quantum-computing company Pasqal jumped sharply in its first day of Nasdaq trading, after climbing as much as 70% during the session.

Its SPAC combination valued the company at roughly $2 billion and provided approximately $360 million in cash for expansion.

The comparison between valuation and current business size is striking.

Pasqal generated only about €16.5 million in revenue in 2025, yet investors are already assigning the company a multibillion-dollar valuation.

The excitement reflects growing expectations that quantum computing could eventually solve problems conventional computers struggle with, including drug discovery, financial modeling, materials research and complex optimization.

The risk is equally clear.

Investors are placing enormous values on businesses whose commercial revenues remain tiny.

Global Capital Markets — Jio Moves Closer to Historic India IPO

India’s securities regulator approved Jio Platforms’ planned $3.8 billion IPO, potentially setting up the largest public offering in Indian history.

Jio has more than 533 million mobile subscribers and has expanded beyond telecommunications into cloud computing, artificial intelligence and enterprise services.

Its ownership also makes the deal globally important.

Meta owns roughly 9.9% and Google owns about 7.7%.

Most of the IPO proceeds are expected to help repay debt at Reliance Jio Infocomm.

A successful offering would put a public-market valuation on one of the world’s largest digital platforms and provide another major test of international investor appetite for India.

It would also give Meta and Google a clearer market value for investments they made years ago.

Google & Online Business — Europe Forces a Change in Search Enforcement

Google announced that it is changing how it enforces part of its search-spam policy across the European Economic Area following pressure from regulators.

The dispute centered on Google’s site reputation abuse policy, which targets third-party commercial content placed on established websites partly to benefit from those sites’ stronger Google rankings.

Publishers argued that Google was also penalizing legitimate commercial partnerships.

Beginning August 30, certain manual demotions under that policy will no longer affect users in the European Economic Area.

The policy remains unchanged elsewhere.

For online businesses, this matters because search rankings determine enormous amounts of revenue for publishers, affiliate businesses, retailers and marketers.

It also shows how European regulation can force Google to change the actual mechanics of its products — not simply pay fines.

Consumers — Confidence Falls Again

The University of Michigan’s final August consumer-sentiment reading came in at 51.7, down from 55.2 in July and significantly below where it stood a year earlier.

Consumers remain concerned about inflation and their future financial situation.

Year-ahead inflation expectations remained around 4%, while longer-term expectations stayed above the Federal Reserve’s target.

For retailers, restaurants and service businesses heading into the fall, that means consumers may continue spending — but they are becoming increasingly selective about where the money goes.

Lower- and middle-income households remain especially sensitive to food, fuel, housing and borrowing costs.

Labor Market — Job Growth Was Even Weaker Than Previously Reported

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision indicated that the U.S. economy created fewer jobs during the 12 months through March than previously estimated.

That comes after recent employment reports already showed weaker hiring momentum.

The revision creates a difficult situation for the Federal Reserve.

Inflation remains high enough to argue against easier monetary policy, while the labor market is beginning to show more weakness.

For business owners, a softer hiring market could reduce some pressure finding workers.

For investors, it means every major employment report now carries even more weight.

Investor Money — Billions Flow Out of U.S. Stock Funds

Investors withdrew more than $22 billion from U.S. equity funds during the latest weekly reporting period, the largest weekly outflow in months.

Large-cap funds saw particularly heavy withdrawals, while smaller-company funds attracted some money.

Bond funds continued receiving inflows.

The headline stock indexes remain near record territory, but money underneath the market is becoming more defensive.

That does not necessarily predict a major selloff.

It does show that investors are increasingly looking for income and protection while becoming more selective about highly valued large-cap stocks.

What to Watch This Weekend and Monday

U.S. stock and bond markets are closed Saturday, but developments from Jackson Hole could still affect markets when futures reopen Sunday evening.

Investors will be watching for additional comments from Federal Reserve officials about inflation, interest rates and the strength of the economy.

Oil and Iran also remain important weekend risks.

Any escalation affecting the Strait of Hormuz or Iranian energy exports could immediately move crude prices and inflation expectations.

Looking into next week, investors will increasingly focus on employment data, the next round of corporate earnings and whether the strong AI trade can continue after the volatility surrounding Nvidia and other major technology companies.

The bigger message from Friday is that the economy is becoming increasingly divided.

Consumers are under pressure, hiring is cooling and financing remains expensive — while extraordinary amounts of capital continue flowing into AI, pharmaceuticals, quantum computing and other high-growth industries.

That divide is likely to remain one of the defining business stories heading into September.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Gap shares surged after the retailer moved to address weakness at Old Navy while raising its annual profit outlook.

The company named Michael Francis as chief executive of Old Navy, putting an experienced retail executive in charge of Gap’s largest brand at a moment when its performance has become one of the biggest obstacles to the company’s turnaround.

Old Navy comparable sales fell 4% during the quarter, their first decline in 12 quarters.

That weakness stood in sharp contrast to the Gap brand, where comparable sales rose 10%.

Overall quarterly revenue fell 2% to roughly $3.65 billion, while adjusted earnings came in stronger than Wall Street expected.

Gap raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $2.35 to $2.45 a share.

But there is another important number buried inside the quarter.

Gap recorded approximately $417 million in net tariff recovery tied to IEEPA duties.

The company says its adjusted outlook excludes the impact of that recovery, meaning investors should not simply treat the $417 million as evidence that Gap’s underlying retail operation suddenly became dramatically more profitable.

The market reaction reflects both sides of the story.

Shares jumped sharply because investors see stronger performance at the Gap brand, improved pricing discipline and a concrete attempt to fix Old Navy.

But Old Navy still matters enormously.

It is Gap’s largest banner, and the company’s broader turnaround will be difficult to sustain if Old Navy continues losing sales momentum.

The quarter therefore provides another example of why investors increasingly need to separate operating performance from temporary tariff-related financial benefits.

The real question for Gap is not how much tariff money came back.

It is whether the new leadership at Old Navy can get customers buying again.

JBizNews Desk | San Francisco

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NEW YORK — 10:00 a.m. ET, Friday, Aug. 28, 2026. U.S. stocks opened with little movement Friday as Wall Street shifted almost immediately from Nvidia’s AI-driven rally to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, whose closely watched Jackson Hole address began at 10 a.m. Eastern.

At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 42.5 points, or 0.08%, to 53,611.94. The S&P 500 gained 4.2 points, or 0.05%, to 7,735.17, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 25.4 points, or 0.10%, to 26,515.99. 

The restrained opening followed Thursday’s technology rally, when Nvidia’s strong outlook reinforced expectations that enormous spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure could continue for years. Friday’s question is different: how aggressively will the Federal Reserve respond to inflation that remains well above its 2% target?

Warsh Takes Center Stage

Warsh’s keynote at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium began at 10:00 a.m. ET, making monetary policy the dominant market catalyst for the remainder of the morning. Investors are listening for any indication that the Fed is leaning toward another interest-rate increase, remaining on hold, or becoming more concerned about slowing economic growth. The Fed’s official calendar confirms the 10 a.m. keynote. 

Treasury yields were already elevated heading into the speech, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.69%. Higher long-term yields are particularly important for technology and other high-valuation growth stocks because they increase the discount rate investors apply to future earnings. 

Consumer Sentiment Remains Weak

The final University of Michigan reading showed consumer sentiment at 51.0 in August, unchanged from the preliminary reading and sharply below July’s 55.2.

That leaves sentiment down roughly 12% from August 2025, reflecting continued concern about household finances, inflation and future business conditions. The preliminary survey had shown particularly sharp deterioration in expectations for the economy, while year-ahead inflation expectations had risen to 4.3% and longer-term expectations remained around 3.3%. 

The message for businesses is important: consumers have not stopped spending, but confidence remains extremely fragile, making shoppers more sensitive to prices and potentially more cautious heading toward the fall and holiday spending periods.

Gap Surges as Old Navy Gets New Leadership

Gap jumped more than 20% in early trading after the retailer named veteran executive Michael Francis chief executive of Old Navy, its largest brand.

Gap also raised its annual profit outlook after beating quarterly expectations, although it narrowed its full-year sales-growth forecast because of economic uncertainty. Gap comparable sales rose about 10%, while Old Navy sales declined 4% — their first decline in 12 quarters. 

The stock reaction shows investors are betting that stronger management at Old Navy could unlock more of the turnaround already underway at Gap and Banana Republic.

PayPal Plunges as Takeover Hopes Fade

PayPal fell sharply after a report that Advent International and Stripe had abandoned their pursuit of the payments company.

The consortium had previously offered about $60.50 a share, valuing PayPal near $53 billion, but PayPal’s board considered the proposal inadequate. Shares had rallied nearly 30% after takeover speculation emerged, making the collapse of those talks especially painful for investors who had bought into expectations of a deal. 

PayPal now returns to the harder question of whether its own turnaround can produce enough earnings growth to justify a higher valuation without a buyer.

Marvell Drops Despite Strong AI Outlook

Marvell Technology fell about 8% despite reporting better-than-expected results and raising its longer-term revenue forecasts.

The problem was timing. Investors had hoped Marvell’s enormous custom-chip agreement with Google would produce more near-term revenue. Management indicated the Google contribution becomes substantially more meaningful beginning in fiscal 2029.

Marvell expects fiscal 2027 revenue of roughly $12 billion, up about 45%, and fiscal 2028 revenue near $18 billion, but those numbers were not enough to satisfy a market that had already pushed the stock up nearly threefold this year. 

That reaction is a useful warning for the broader AI trade: strong growth alone is no longer always enough when expectations are already extraordinary.

Affirm moved in the opposite direction, surging after stronger quarterly results. Revenue climbed 33% to roughly $1.2 billion, while gross merchandise volume jumped 36% to $14.1 billion, reinforcing demand for buy-now-pay-later services despite broader concerns about consumer finances. 

Oil Provides Some Inflation Relief

Oil prices were heading toward their first weekly decline in three weeks.

Brent crude traded around $89.30 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate around $82.77, with both benchmarks down roughly 5% for the week as increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reduced some immediate supply fears.

The situation remains volatile, however. Shipping through the strait is still below normal levels and negotiations involving Iran remain unresolved. 

Lower oil prices would be welcome for the Fed because they could eventually reduce gasoline, transportation and manufacturing costs. But businesses are still confronting unusually large fuel surcharges imposed by freight and delivery companies following months of Middle East disruption. 

What to Watch for the Rest of Friday

Warsh’s speech is the immediate market-moving event. Treasury yields, the dollar and rate-sensitive technology stocks could react sharply to any language indicating that inflation requires additional tightening.

Investors will then turn toward next week’s economic calendar. The August employment report arrives Friday, Sept. 4, and could become the decisive data point ahead of the Fed’s September meeting. Recent payroll data have weakened, meaning a surprisingly strong jobs report could revive expectations for another rate increase, while another weak report would complicate the Fed’s inflation fight. 

The corporate calendar also remains important. Broadcom’s upcoming earnings will give investors another major reading on AI-chip and infrastructure demand following Nvidia and Marvell.

For now, Wall Street is essentially standing still while waiting for the Fed chairman to speak. Nvidia has reassured investors that the AI boom remains powerful. Warsh now has to tell markets whether inflation will allow the economy — and valuations — to keep running this hot.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. — Friday, August 28, 2026

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote at 10 a.m. Eastern this morning at Jackson Lake Lodge, in the shadow of the Tetons, with markets waiting on one question: is the Fed preparing to raise rates again?

He probably won’t answer it directly.

There is an irony in the setting. The Kansas City Fed titled this year’s symposium “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,” and Warsh signaled a month ago that he wanted to use the speech for big ideas rather than the tactical question of what the Fed does at its three remaining meetings. Events have not cooperated.

A visibly split committee. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in July over three dissents in favor of a hike — the most since September 2016 — from Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’ Neel Kashkari and Dallas’ Lorie Logan. Kansas City’s Jeffrey Schmid and St. Louis’ Alberto Musalem, who had no vote in July, later said they would have joined them. Minutes released this month showed many participants believed tightening would likely be needed if inflation did not come down.

But the data moved against them. July payrolls fell 23,000 against expectations of a gain near 80,000, and core inflation came in subdued, pulling market pricing for a September increase back sharply. Traders have largely shifted the next hike to December. That reordering is the most important change since Warsh last spoke, and much of the audience will be listening for whether he shares it.

The bond market is the live wire. The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on Aug. 17, its highest since 2007, and the Treasury Department intervened on Aug. 19 to bring long-term borrowing costs down. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move raises an uncomfortable question about who is setting the price of money. Sen. Elizabeth Warren sent Warsh a letter Thursday ahead of the gathering.

Warsh also has a credibility problem of his own making. At his July press conference he repeatedly pointed to sharply higher bond yields as welcome, implying the Fed was content to let markets do the tightening — a stance that pushed long yields higher still and left investors confused about the strategy. Standard Chartered’s economists argue he now has to say plainly that the Fed will raise rates if core PCE does not fall steadily.

How markets could break. If he puts a September move clearly in play, yields and the dollar rise, rate-sensitive tech sells off, banks gain and gold slides. If he flags inflation risk without endorsing a hike — the likeliest outcome — stocks hold, short yields ease and gold recovers. A genuinely dovish message blaming tariffs and energy for the price surge would spark the biggest rally, and is the least likely: inflation has now run above the 2% target for a sixth straight year, and disowning it would cost the Fed dearly.

The most probable speech is carefully hawkish. No promise for September, but a clear signal that the next move is more likely up than down.

That may knock stocks and gold lower on the day. But Warsh has been criticized for saying too little, too vaguely, for months. If he finally explains how he decides, markets may take the clarity even if they dislike the message.

JBizNews Desk | Jackson Hole, Wyoming

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NEW YORK — U.S. stocks closed higher Thursday as blockbuster results from Nvidia and Salesforce reignited enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, lifting the Nasdaq sharply and pushing the S&P 500 close to a record.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 105.56 points, or 0.20%, to 53,569.44.

The S&P 500 gained 0.72% to 7,730.99, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.57% to 26,541.35.

Technology did most of the heavy lifting.

Nvidia jumped about 8.7% after reporting quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion and issuing another powerful growth outlook, reinforcing the view that spending on AI infrastructure remains exceptionally strong.

CEO Jensen Huang said AI has reached an “inflection point,” and investors responded by buying semiconductor and technology shares across the market.

Salesforce surged more than 22%, its strongest session in years, after stronger earnings and evidence that its AI products are beginning to translate into meaningful recurring revenue.

The combination helped turn Thursday into one of the strongest technology sessions of the week.

But the rally was narrower than the major indexes suggested.

Most S&P 500 stocks actually finished lower, meaning a relatively small group of large technology companies accounted for much of the market’s gain.

That distinction matters.

Investors are showing enormous confidence in companies directly benefiting from the AI spending boom, while many businesses tied more closely to ordinary consumer spending continue to struggle.

Best Buy fell roughly 4.5% despite raising its annual sales forecast, as investors focused on cautious consumers and rising electronics costs.

HP also declined more than 4% as higher memory-chip prices pressured the outlook for personal computers.

Dollar General gained about 2.5% after stronger profits, while Dollar Tree fell after its forecast disappointed investors.

The bond market remained another important pressure point.

Treasury yields stayed elevated as investors prepared for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech Friday.

Strong labor-market data and inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target have reduced expectations that policymakers will be able to lower interest rates anytime soon.

Oil also moved higher amid renewed uncertainty surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

That keeps another inflation risk alive for businesses, particularly transportation, manufacturing and consumer-facing companies already dealing with higher borrowing costs.

Thursday therefore produced a clear split.

The AI economy is accelerating, with Nvidia, Salesforce and other technology companies showing extraordinarily strong demand.

The broader economy is much less uniform.

Consumers remain selective, financing remains expensive and energy prices remain volatile.

Friday could determine which side of that story dominates next.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole, and investors will be listening closely for any indication that persistent inflation could keep interest rates elevated — or even require additional tightening.

For now, Wall Street’s message is clear:

Investors are willing to pay aggressively for proven AI growth, even while remaining cautious about almost everything else.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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NEW YORK — Updated 10:30 a.m. ET, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. U.S. stocks were mixed but firmly technology-led by midmorning, with the Nasdaq extending its gains after Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings while the Dow slipped slightly into negative territory.

At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 149.8 points, or 0.28%, to 53,613.66. The S&P 500 gained 34.6 points, or 0.45%, to 7,710.34, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 226.8 points, or 0.87%, to 26,356.98.

By roughly 10:30 a.m. ET, the picture had shifted. The Dow was down about 28 points, or 0.05%, near 53,436, while the S&P 500 was up about 31 points, or 0.41%, near 7,707, and the Nasdaq Composite was up roughly 296 points, or 1.13%, near 26,427. 

The divergence reflects exactly where investors are putting money today: AI and technology.

Nvidia was up around 6%, helping pull the Nasdaq sharply higher after the company reported another enormous quarter and issued a strong outlook. Salesforce also surged after strong earnings and an upgraded forecast, while CrowdStrike advanced on better-than-expected results and improved guidance. 

Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, including roughly $89 billion from its data-center business, and projected about $108 billion in revenue for the current quarter. The company also expects revenue growth of roughly 70% next fiscal year, reinforcing the view that AI infrastructure spending remains exceptionally strong.

That message is lifting not only Nvidia but the wider group of companies tied to data centers, chips, networking and cloud infrastructure.

The morning economic reports were also relatively supportive.

Initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 203,000 for the week ended Aug. 22, while continuing claims declined by 18,000 to 1.778 million. Layoffs therefore remain low despite signs that hiring has slowed. 

At the same time, the U.S. goods trade deficit widened sharply to $118.8 billion in July, from $101.4 billion in June. Exports fell 2.9%, while imports increased 3.7%.

One notable detail was an 11.3% surge in capital-goods imports, which may partly reflect the huge amount of machinery and equipment being brought into the country for AI data centers and other infrastructure projects. 

That creates an unusual interpretation: a larger trade deficit is normally viewed negatively, but part of today’s increase may actually reflect businesses spending aggressively on productive equipment.

Retail earnings showed the consumer remains highly selective.

Dollar General rose about 5% after stronger results and an improved outlook, while Dollar Tree moved lower after disappointing guidance. Best Buy fell sharply despite beating expectations, as investors focused on weaker underlying electronics demand and persistent pressure from inflation. 

Treasury yields were relatively steady, with the 10-year yield around 4.67%. That stability is important because the Nasdaq’s rally becomes much harder to sustain if long-term rates begin climbing again. 

Oil was also back in focus. U.S. crude was near $82.79 a barrel, while Brent was around $87.78, both up roughly 1% as markets continued to monitor Iran, Oman and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 

For the rest of Thursday, Wall Street will be watching three things closely.

First is whether Nvidia’s gain continues pulling the broader semiconductor and AI complex higher.

Second is Treasury yields. If the 10-year remains around 4.65% to 4.70%, technology shares have room to hold their gains. A sharp move above that range would likely pressure the Nasdaq quickly.

Third is Jackson Hole. Investors are preparing for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech Friday, which could reset expectations for whether the Federal Reserve raises rates again this year. 

After the closing bell, Marvell Technology, Workday, Autodesk, Affirm and Ulta Beauty are among the major companies scheduled to report, with Marvell particularly important because of its exposure to AI networking and data-center infrastructure.

For now, the market is sending a very clear message: Nvidia has reignited the AI trade, but the rally is concentrated. The Nasdaq is surging while the Dow has already given up its opening gain.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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By Duvi Honig, Publisher and Editor, JBizNews

Corporate earnings are becoming harder to read.

Billions of dollars in tariff refunds are now flowing back to American companies, creating an unusual situation in which profits can jump even when sales are falling, customer traffic is weak, or the underlying business is barely improving.

For investors, that creates a dangerous temptation: looking at the earnings headline instead of asking where the earnings actually came from.

Consider what we are seeing.

Walmart received roughly $2.9 billion in tariff refunds and is using part of that windfall to help finance price cuts on thousands of products. Yet its U.S. comparable-sales growth slowed to 2.6%, its weakest pace in six years, store-traffic growth slowed, and its next-quarter earnings guidance disappointed Wall Street.

The market noticed. Walmart shares fell more than 9% in one day, wiping out tens of billions of dollars in market value.

That is the market saying: We see the refund, but we also see what is happening underneath it.

Kohl’s provides an even clearer example.

It received approximately $150 million in tariff refunds during the quarter. About $100 million flowed directly through gross margin, helping Kohl’s raise its annual earnings outlook.

But comparable sales declined again, and quarterly revenue remained under pressure.

Kohl’s shares fell.

Again, Wall Street looked past the bigger profit number and focused on the weaker underlying business.

Bath & Body Works received about $80 million in tariff refunds. Reported adjusted earnings were 62 cents a share.

Without the tariff benefit, earnings would have been approximately 31 cents.

Meanwhile, store traffic remained weak, sales declined, and the company forecast another sales decline for the current quarter.

Its shares also fell.

Then there is Kimberly-Clark.

Its profitability benefited from tariff refunds even as sales missed expectations and the company reduced parts of its outlook because of softer demand and other pressures.

Those examples demonstrate the problem.

A higher profit number does not necessarily mean a healthier company.

But this story has another side — and that is just as important.

A Refund Does Not Automatically Mean the Earnings Are Fake

Target received nearly $1 billion in tariff refunds, a tremendous boost.

But Target also produced stronger comparable sales, higher customer traffic, stronger digital sales, and improved its outlook.

Its shares rose.

That is different from Kohl’s.

The refund made Target’s earnings look better, but there was also genuine operating improvement beneath it.

The same distinction applies to Abercrombie & Fitch.

Abercrombie received roughly $100 million in tariff benefits, but it also reported record quarterly sales and continued underlying brand growth.

Investors rewarded the stock.

J.M. Smucker also benefited from tariff refunds, but revenue rose, cash flow improved, and management raised its outlook.

Its shares moved higher.

Home Depot received roughly $730 million in tariff refunds, but sales also grew and the company produced stronger underlying operating results.

Its stock reaction was far more measured.

That tells us something important.

The market is not simply rewarding companies that receive tariff refunds or punishing those that do.

It is beginning to separate real operating performance from temporary financial assistance.

Why the Market Looks Confused

This is why investors are seeing stocks move in opposite directions even when companies announce apparently similar profit increases.

The market is essentially rebuilding the income statement.

Institutional investors are asking:

What would earnings have been without the refund?

Did customers actually buy more?

Did traffic increase?

Did the company gain market share?

Did margins improve because management became more efficient — or because the government returned money?

Is the improvement repeatable next quarter?

That is the correct way to look at these earnings.

But everyday investors can easily be misled by headlines.

“Profit jumps.”

“Company raises guidance.”

“Margins surge.”

“Earnings beat expectations.”

Those statements can all be technically true while still giving investors the wrong impression about the health of the business.

That is where the danger lies.

This Is About More Than One Quarter

The bigger impact may come later.

Wall Street values companies largely on future earnings, not the money they happened to receive yesterday.

Suppose a company normally earns $500 million annually.

It receives a one-time $150 million tariff refund and reports $650 million.

If investors apply a 20-times earnings valuation to the $650 million figure, that implies a business worth $13 billion.

But if sustainable earnings are actually $500 million, the same multiple produces a value of $10 billion.

That is a $3 billion valuation difference created without selling a single additional product.

Multiply that across corporate America and tariff refunds begin affecting far more than quarterly headlines.

They affect earnings-per-share estimates, analyst price targets, valuation multiples, executive compensation, lending decisions, acquisitions, share repurchases, and future investor expectations.

Every spreadsheet eventually has to answer the same question:

Is this recurring income or temporary income?

The 2027 Problem

There is another distortion coming.

Companies receiving large refunds in 2026 will eventually have to compare future earnings against these unusually inflated quarters.

Imagine a retailer earns $2 a share from operations this year plus 75 cents from a tariff refund.

Reported earnings: $2.75.

Next year, the business improves and generates $2.20 from operations.

That is actually 10% real growth.

But without another 75-cent refund, reported earnings fall from $2.75 to $2.20.

The headline could say:

“Earnings Fall 20%.”

The business actually improved.

The comparison simply became distorted.

Today’s tariff refunds can therefore make companies appear artificially strong now — and artificially weak later.

That will complicate earnings comparisons, analyst models, and corporate valuations well into 2027.

What Investors Should Do

My message is not to ignore earnings.

It is to reconstruct them.

When reading a corporate report today, start with four numbers:

Sales. Traffic or volume. Recurring operating margin. Cash flow.

Then look for unusual items such as tariff refunds.

Remove them.

And ask:

What would this company look like if that money had never arrived?

That is the business you are actually investing in.

Then ask a second question:

What is management doing with the windfall?

A company that uses temporary tariff money to reduce debt, improve technology, cut prices, modernize stores, or invest in productivity can turn temporary cash into permanent value.

A company that uses it mainly to make weak earnings look stronger, repurchase shares, or avoid confronting deteriorating operations may simply be postponing the problem.

Is the Market Being Fooled?

Not completely.

Walmart fell.

Kohl’s fell.

Bath & Body Works fell.

Target rose.

Smucker rose.

Abercrombie rose.

Home Depot barely moved.

That is not a market randomly reacting to headlines.

It is evidence that investors are already trying to distinguish between companies where tariff refunds are covering weakness and companies where the refund is sitting on top of genuine growth.

The bigger risk is to people who stop at the headline.

So when you see a company spreading enormous profit numbers across an earnings release like a peacock opening its feathers, do not stare at the feathers.

Look underneath.

Because the question that will determine corporate valuations over the next year is no longer simply:

How much did the company earn?

It is:

How much of those earnings will still exist when the tariff money is gone?

That is the number investors should be valuing.

Duvi Honig
Publisher and Editor, JBizNews

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NEW YORK — Wall Street finished Wednesday almost exactly where it started, as investors absorbed another stubborn inflation reading and largely stayed on the sidelines ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 113.52 points, or 0.21%, to 53,463.88.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.02% to 7,675.70, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.08% to 26,130.20.

The unusually quiet finish masked a more important shift in the bond market.

The 10-year Treasury yield moved back toward 4.65% after inflation remained hotter than investors wanted, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may have little room to lower borrowing costs anytime soon.

July inflation remained at 3.7% from a year earlier, still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

That left investors confronting the same difficult combination that has shaped markets in recent weeks: the economy is still growing, corporate profits remain strong and AI investment continues at extraordinary levels — but inflation is proving difficult to eliminate.

For businesses, that means interest rates could remain elevated longer than many hoped.

Higher Treasury yields eventually flow through to mortgages, commercial real-estate financing, corporate borrowing and other forms of credit.

Nvidia Keeps Wall Street Waiting

Nvidia fell 1.6% during regular trading, closing at $209.66 as investors reduced exposure ahead of its earnings release after the closing bell.

The company has become one of the most consequential stocks in the entire market because its results provide a direct measure of how aggressively technology companies continue spending on artificial intelligence.

After the close, Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, up 106% from a year earlier, while its data-center business generated approximately $89 billion.

The company also projected approximately $108 billion in revenue for the current quarter, suggesting that demand for AI computing infrastructure continues to accelerate.

That report arrived after Wednesday’s official market close, meaning Nvidia’s reaction could become one of the biggest drivers of Thursday trading.

Abercrombie Surges

One of Wednesday’s biggest winners was Abercrombie & Fitch, which jumped more than 35% after delivering stronger-than-expected quarterly results.

The move demonstrated that consumers have not stopped spending entirely. Retail performance is increasingly separating into winners and losers based on brand strength, pricing and customer demographics.

J.M. Smucker rose 4.3% following better-than-expected results.

Meanwhile, Intuit fell 3.2% after its profit outlook disappointed investors despite continued growth across QuickBooks and other financial-software products.

Meta Rises Following Major Settlement

Meta Platforms gained roughly 1.1% after agreeing to resolve litigation involving allegations that its social-media products harmed younger users.

The company could ultimately pay as much as $18 billion while implementing additional child-safety measures.

The financial cost is significant, but investors appeared relieved that one of Meta’s largest outstanding legal uncertainties was moving toward resolution.

Apple also gained more than 1%.

Oil Provides Some Relief

Oil prices finished slightly lower following several volatile sessions tied to Iran and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

That provided modest relief for businesses exposed to transportation and fuel costs.

Energy prices remain important because another sustained rise in crude could feed directly back into inflation just as the Federal Reserve is deciding whether additional rate increases are necessary.

What Wednesday’s Market Really Said

Wednesday was not a dramatic trading day.

That was the point.

Investors were unwilling to make large bets before seeing Nvidia’s numbers and hearing more from Federal Reserve officials later this week.

The stock market remains close to record territory, corporate earnings remain strong and AI spending continues to expand.

But the bond market is sending a warning.

If inflation refuses to fall, expensive money may remain part of the economy much longer than businesses and investors expected.

Thursday will show whether Nvidia’s extraordinary growth is powerful enough to overcome that concern.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Wall Street finished higher Tuesday, but the more important business story was what happened underneath the indexes. Bond yields and oil finally moved lower, giving investors some relief, while new housing and consumer data showed that high borrowing costs are increasingly affecting real purchasing decisions. Dick’s Sporting Goods lost nearly a third of its value after problems at Foot Locker, copper moved close to an all-time high despite an apparent global surplus, and Intuit’s results offered a fresh look inside the finances of millions of small businesses.

I screened Tuesday’s developments against JBizNews’ current news feed to avoid repeating stories already carried during the day. 

Markets — Tech Rebounds as Oil and Bond Yields Finally Retreat

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,577.17, up 160.01 points, or 0.30%. The S&P 500 gained 24.20 points, or 0.32%, to 7,677.20, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 171.64 points, or 0.66%, to 26,151.30. 

The rally was not especially large, but what drove it mattered.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.64% from 4.70% Monday, easing some of the pressure that has been hitting mortgages, business loans and highly valued technology stocks. Nvidia rose 1.8% ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report. 

Oil provided another major source of relief. Brent crude fell $3.59, or 3.9%, to $88.58 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped $2.65, or 3.1%, to $82.36. Both settled at their lowest levels in roughly two weeks. 

For businesses, the combination matters more than Tuesday’s index gains. Lower oil reduces pressure on transportation, manufacturing and inflation, while falling Treasury yields can eventually lower financing costs across housing, commercial real estate and corporate borrowing.

The biggest individual loser was Dick’s Sporting Goods, down 30.1%. That was not simply an earnings miss — it exposed a much bigger problem with one of the retail sector’s most important acquisitions. 

Housing & Consumers — Lower Home Prices Still Aren’t Bringing Buyers Back

The housing market delivered one of Tuesday’s clearest warnings about what high interest rates are doing to the real economy.

Sales of newly built single-family homes fell 10.5% in July to an annualized 607,000, the lowest level since January.

Even more striking, the median new-home price fell to $393,800 — its lowest level in four years.

Normally, lower prices should bring buyers back.

They are not.

Mortgage rates remain close to 7%, and the combination of expensive financing, insurance, property taxes and uncertainty over employment is keeping potential buyers on the sidelines. 

Consumer confidence reinforced the message. The Conference Board’s index slipped to 89.4 in August from 90.2 in July, its lowest level in seven months.

That matters far beyond homebuilders.

Every home sale generates additional spending on furniture, appliances, renovations, contractors, moving companies, landscaping and local services. When housing transactions freeze, an entire ecosystem of small businesses loses activity.

The important takeaway is that housing is no longer simply suffering from high prices. Prices are now falling in parts of the new-home market, and affordability is still not improving enough to unlock demand.

Retail — Dick’s $2.4 Billion Foot Locker Deal Runs Into Trouble

Dick’s Sporting Goods bought Foot Locker for $2.4 billion last year, betting that combining the two companies would give it greater control over the global sneaker and athletic-wear market.

Tuesday showed how quickly an acquisition can become a liability.

Dick’s cut its full-year earnings forecast to $11 to $12 a share and now expects Foot Locker comparable sales to range from flat to down 2%.

Management blamed bloated footwear inventories, aggressive discounting and weaker-than-expected sneaker launches.

The stock plunged 30.1%, potentially its worst trading day on record. 

This matters to more than Dick’s shareholders.

Foot Locker sits between major manufacturers such as Nike and Adidas and millions of consumers. If inventory is piling up, retailers typically respond with promotions. That pressures margins at stores, weakens pricing power for brands and can ultimately affect orders going back to manufacturers.

It is also a reminder for business owners that buying revenue is not the same as buying profitable growth.

Dick’s acquired thousands of stores and a major international brand. It also acquired Foot Locker’s inventory problems, weak product launches and turnaround costs.

Small Business — Intuit’s Numbers Show Where Businesses Are Still Spending

After Tuesday’s closing bell, Intuit reported fiscal-year revenue of $21.4 billion, up 14%, giving investors an unusually broad look at what is happening among small businesses and individual taxpayers.

Its Global Business Solutions division — which includes QuickBooks — generated $12.9 billion, up 16%. QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue jumped 23% for the year, while Intuit said higher prices, customer growth and customers moving toward more expensive products helped drive the business.

TurboTax revenue rose 7% to $5.3 billion, while Credit Karma increased 20% to $2.6 billion. 

But Intuit’s outlook shows growth moderating.

The company expects fiscal 2027 revenue of approximately $23.3 billion to $23.5 billion, representing growth of 9% to 10%. Its Mailchimp business is expected to range from a 1% decline to no growth at all. 

That split is particularly interesting.

Small businesses continue paying for accounting, payroll, payments and financial-management tools that are essential to operating. Marketing software is having a harder time.

In other words, businesses may still spend aggressively on technology that runs the company or saves labor, while becoming more selective about technology whose return is less immediate.

That distinction could become increasingly important as AI companies compete for small-business budgets.

Commodities — Copper Nears a Record Even Though the World May Have Too Much of It

Copper climbed as high as $14,343 a metric ton in London Tuesday, approaching its record of $14,527.50.

Normally that would suggest the world is running out of copper.

The reality is considerably stranger.

Analysts at CRU expect the global copper market could actually produce a 639,000-ton surplus in 2026. Yet available inventories on the London Metal Exchange have fallen toward 90,000 tons while inventories held in the United States have surged to records. 

Why?

The threat of U.S. tariffs is pulling enormous amounts of copper into America before the rules potentially change.

The United States imported roughly 885,000 tons of refined copper during the first half of 2026 — more than twice the volume imported during the same period in 2024.

That is creating an unusual situation where the world can have enough copper overall while specific regions suddenly feel tight.

For contractors, electrical-equipment manufacturers, utilities, data-center developers and construction companies, this is extremely important.

Copper is inside wiring, transformers, motors, air-conditioning equipment, EVs and practically every major electrical project. The AI data-center boom is already dramatically increasing expected electricity demand.

Now trade policy is adding another variable.

A commodity does not need to be physically scarce globally for businesses to experience a shortage locally. Tariffs and inventory movements can create scarcity all by themselves.

Healthcare — McKesson Pays $2.25 Billion to Move Deeper Into Drug Development

McKesson announced Tuesday that it will acquire Precision Medicine Group for approximately $2.25 billion, expanding beyond its traditional role as one of America’s largest drug distributors.

Precision Medicine provides clinical-research, laboratory and commercialization services to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.

McKesson plans to place the business inside its oncology and multispecialty division, where quarterly revenue recently jumped 33% to $14.2 billion. 

The strategy is important.

Major drug distributors historically made money moving medicines from manufacturers to pharmacies and hospitals — a massive business, but one with relatively thin margins.

McKesson is increasingly moving upstream, where it can participate in clinical trials, specialty medicines, oncology treatment and the process of bringing drugs to market.

That gives the company access to higher-margin revenue before a drug ever reaches the pharmacy counter.

For pharmaceutical companies, hospitals and independent medical practices, it also means another part of the healthcare supply chain is consolidating around a small number of enormously powerful companies.

Technology & Regulation — Meta Faces a Potential $200 Billion Test

Instagram chief Adam Mosseri was expected to take the witness stand Tuesday in what legal experts described as the largest court test yet of whether social-media companies designed their platforms in ways that harm or addict children.

Twenty-nine states are suing Meta, alleging that Facebook and Instagram were deliberately designed to maximize engagement among young users while failing to adequately protect them.

The states have indicated that Meta could potentially face nearly $200 billion in civil penalties.

Meta denies that it designed its platforms to addict children and disputes claims that research establishes a clear causal connection between social-media use and declining well-being.

The federal judge will decide liability, potential penalties and whether changes must be made to Facebook and Instagram. The trial is expected to continue through much of September. 

The business implications could be enormous even if the ultimate financial penalty is much smaller.

A ruling against Meta could force changes to recommendation algorithms, notifications, age verification and other features designed to keep users engaged.

Those same engagement systems are what make social-media advertising so valuable.

That means a case framed around children’s safety could eventually affect advertisers, influencers, retailers, app developers and practically every business that depends on social platforms for customer acquisition.

What to Watch Wednesday — PCE, GDP and Nvidia All Hit on the Same Day

Wednesday, August 26, could be considerably more important for markets than Tuesday.

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis releases two major reports simultaneously: the second estimate of second-quarter GDP and corporate profits, and July Personal Income and Outlays, which contains the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation measures. 

That gives investors three critical answers at once: how quickly the economy actually grew, what happened to corporate profits and whether inflation is moving in the direction the Federal Reserve wants.

Then comes Nvidia.

The company says its fiscal second-quarter results will be released at approximately 4:20 p.m. ET Wednesday, followed by its earnings call at 5 p.m. ET. 

Nvidia is no longer just another technology earnings report.

Hundreds of billions of dollars are being committed to AI data centers, chips, power generation, transmission equipment and financing based on the assumption that demand for accelerated computing will continue rising extraordinarily quickly.

Wednesday gives investors another chance to see whether the company at the center of that spending boom is still growing fast enough to justify what is being built around it.

That makes the setup for Wednesday unusually clear:

Tuesday gave markets relief from oil and interest rates. Wednesday will tell investors whether inflation is actually cooling — and whether the AI boom is still delivering enough growth to support the extraordinary amount of money chasing it.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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NEW YORK — Updated 10:03 a.m. ET, Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2026. U.S. stocks opened higher Tuesday, with technology and semiconductor shares leading a rebound from Monday’s selloff as investors positioned for Nvidia’s earnings and a major inflation report Wednesday.

At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 177.8 points, or 0.33%, to 53,594.92. The S&P 500 gained 23.8 points, or 0.31%, to 7,676.66, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 168.5 points, or 0.65%, to 26,148.71. 

The latest index reading available shortly after the open, at 9:41 a.m. ET, showed the Dow up 75.49 points to 53,492.65, the S&P 500 up 29.05 points to 7,681.91, and the Nasdaq up 194.45 points to 26,174.64. 

Chips Lead the Rebound

Technology was doing most of the heavy lifting. Nvidia rose 1.4%, Meta gained 0.9%, Intel climbed 3.1%, Micron advanced 3.9%, Western Digital gained 3.7%, and AMD jumped 3.4% after Raymond James upgraded the stock. Advancing stocks were outnumbering decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. 

Nvidia remains the biggest single catalyst hanging over the market. The company reports Wednesday afternoon, and options traders are pricing in a roughly 5.4% move in either direction — equivalent to about $280 billion of market value. Investors will be looking beyond the headline earnings numbers for evidence that spending on AI infrastructure, chips and data centers remains strong enough to justify the sector’s valuations. 

The other major mover was decidedly negative. Dick’s Sporting Goods plunged 22.6% after cutting its full-year forecasts as weaker athletic-footwear demand and problems at its Foot Locker business weighed on results. Nike fell about 3.2% alongside it. Dick’s reported adjusted earnings of $3.53 a share on $5.59 billion in sales and lowered its annual sales outlook to $21.9 billion to $22.2 billion. 

Morning Economic Reports Send a Mixed Housing Signal

The morning’s economic data showed home prices continuing to rise nationally, but at a relatively restrained pace.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency said U.S. home prices increased 2.1% from a year earlier in the second quarter and 0.3% from the first quarter. The agency’s June index was unchanged from May. Prices rose year over year in 46 states and Washington, D.C. 

Separately, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.5% from a year earlier in June, accelerating modestly from May’s 1.2% increase. That still leaves home-price appreciation running well below broader inflation, limiting real gains for homeowners. 

A more cautionary signal came from the Philadelphia Fed’s service-sector survey. Its index measuring firms’ own business activity fell sharply to -8.2 in August from +17.5 in July, meaning more firms reported declining activity than improving activity. 

The 10:00 a.m. ET economic batch — Conference Board consumer confidence, July new-home sales and the Richmond Fed business surveys — had not yet populated with verified actual readings on their primary-source pages as of this 10:03 a.m. update. JBizNews is therefore not substituting forecasts for actual results. The Census Bureau confirms July new-home sales were scheduled for release at 10:00 a.m., while the Richmond Fed says its August surveys are released between 10:00 and 10:10 a.m. 

Bonds and Oil Give Stocks Some Breathing Room

Treasury yields were easing early Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year yield around 4.67%, removing some of the rate pressure that hit growth stocks Monday. U.S. crude was also sharply lower, trading around $82 a barrel, reducing immediate inflation concerns even as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran remain elevated. 

Boeing also entered the session with a major new defense headline after receiving an indefinite-delivery contract with a ceiling of roughly $131.2 billion covering F-15 production, upgrades, integration and sustainment work. The contract could stretch work on the program into the next decade. 

What to Watch for the Rest of Tuesday

The first immediate test will be the delayed reaction to the 10 a.m. consumer-confidence, new-home-sales and Richmond Fed numbers as those reports become fully available. At 1 p.m. ET, the Treasury’s two-year note auction will provide another reading on investor demand for government debt and could move yields.

But Tuesday’s trading is likely to remain heavily influenced by what comes next. Wednesday brings Nvidia earnings along with the PCE inflation report and other major economic data, creating the potential for a significantly larger market move than Tuesday’s opening bounce. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech Friday then becomes the week’s major monetary-policy event, with investors looking for clues on whether the Fed is prepared to raise rates again. Markets are currently pricing roughly one additional 25-basis-point increase by year-end. 

For now, the message from the opening tape is clear: Wall Street is buying back into technology, but investors are doing so immediately ahead of two potentially market-moving tests — Nvidia earnings and inflation.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Wall Street ended Monday split, with banks keeping the Dow positive while a sharp semiconductor selloff dragged the Nasdaq lower. But some of the day’s more consequential business developments happened away from the major indexes: a $13.7 billion AI-computing contract came with a major financing question, Tesla quietly ended one of Elon Musk’s best-known solar products, Shein returned to public markets at a fraction of its former valuation, and an EPA decision wiped out a large chunk of the value of ethanol credits.

Markets — Tech Slides While the Dow Holds On

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,418.68, up 141.67 points, or 0.27%. The S&P 500 fell 21.37 points, or 0.28%, to 7,653.00, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 200.80 points, or 0.77%, to 25,979.66.

Technology was the clear weak spot. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 2.6%, with Micron down 5.6%, Nvidia down 2.3% and Broadcom down 2.1% as investors reduced exposure ahead of Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday. Financial stocks moved higher, with JPMorgan Chase and Visa helping keep the Dow in positive territory. The 30-year Treasury yield remained above 5%, keeping pressure on expensive growth stocks and borrowing-sensitive businesses. 

One of Monday’s biggest individual losers was Applied Optoelectronics, which sank roughly 12% after disclosing a new program that could sell as much as $600 million of stock into the market. The optical-networking company has benefited heavily from demand for AI data-center equipment, but the reaction shows investors are increasingly paying attention not just to AI growth, but to how companies are financing that growth. 

AI Infrastructure — A $13.7 Billion Contract With a Catch

RUM Group announced one of the largest AI infrastructure contracts of the day: a six-year agreement worth approximately $13.7 billion to provide GPU computing services to an unnamed U.S. cloud customer from a data-center site under development in Maysville, Georgia.

The size of the contract is extraordinary. But so is what RUM may have to spend to fulfill it.

The customer is receiving warrants allowing it to purchase as many as 50.8 million RUM shares for one cent each, with the shares vesting as portions of the agreement are completed. The facility itself is still being developed, meaning RUM will need significant capital to build the computing capacity required to deliver the service. Shares initially jumped about 10% on the announcement. 

That is becoming one of the defining questions of the AI boom. Winning billions of dollars of future business sounds spectacular, but GPUs, electricity, buildings, cooling systems and grid connections have to be paid for before that revenue arrives. Investors are beginning to distinguish between companies benefiting from AI demand and companies that may have to issue enormous amounts of debt or stock to serve it.

Retail — Shein’s $100 Billion Dream Becomes a $27 Billion IPO

Shein launched its Hong Kong IPO Monday at a valuation of as much as $27 billion, a remarkable fall for a company that private investors valued at $98.2 billion in 2022.

The fast-fashion company is seeking to raise as much as $1.77 billion by selling 280 million shares.

The roughly 70% collapse in valuation tells a larger story about global e-commerce. Shein built its model around shipping extremely inexpensive packages directly to consumers. That became far less attractive after the U.S. eliminated duty-free treatment for many low-value packages and governments began imposing additional tariffs, fees and regulatory requirements. Competition from Temu and Amazon has also intensified. 

For retailers, this is important because one of the competitive advantages that allowed Chinese direct-to-consumer platforms to dramatically undercut American stores is weakening. For consumers, it can ultimately mean higher prices on extremely low-cost imported merchandise.

Shein is still a huge company. But public investors are effectively saying it is worth less than one-third of what private investors believed four years ago.

Temu — Sales Keep Growing, but the Cheap-Shopping Model Is Getting More Expensive

The same pressure showed up Monday at PDD Holdings, owner of Temu.

Second-quarter revenue rose 8% to 112.36 billion yuan, or about $15.7 billion, but missed Wall Street expectations. Net income fell 12% to 27.2 billion yuan.

At home, PDD is fighting Alibaba, JD.com and ByteDance in an aggressive Chinese price war. Overseas, Temu faces tariffs, the loss of duty-free treatment for low-value U.S. packages and a new European Union fee on small imported parcels. PDD executives warned that the changes are increasing costs and slowing fulfillment. 

The takeaway is bigger than one quarterly earnings report.

Temu’s explosive rise was based partly on making the distance between a Chinese factory and an American consumer almost irrelevant. Governments are now putting costs back into that distance. If that continues, the economics of ultra-cheap cross-border shopping begin moving closer to those faced by traditional retailers that import inventory, warehouse it domestically and pay tariffs before making a sale.

Clean Energy — Tesla Gives Up on the Solar Roof

Tesla has stopped selling its premium Solar Roof, nearly a decade after Musk unveiled the product as a way to turn the roof itself into a power-generating system rather than mounting conventional solar panels on top of it.

The Solar Roof page now redirects customers to Tesla’s traditional solar-panel business.

Tesla once targeted 1,000 Solar Roof installations per week, but industry estimates indicated actual installations remained far below that goal. The company is now focusing on conventional solar panels manufactured in Buffalo, New York. 

This does not mean Tesla is abandoning solar. In fact, the company filed plans this month for a $10.1 billion solar-cell factory outside Houston that it says could create 9,712 permanent jobs.

What changed is the product strategy. Tesla appears to be moving away from an attractive but complicated customized roofing product and toward something easier to manufacture and install at scale.

For contractors and business owners, there is a familiar lesson: a product can be innovative and still fail if installation, labor and customization make it too difficult to scale profitably.

Energy & Agriculture — EPA Decision Knocks Down Ethanol Credits

A single regulatory announcement caused a dramatic move in an obscure market that ultimately affects refiners, farmers and fuel producers.

The price of conventional ethanol blending credits, known as D6 RINs, fell to $1.75 Monday, down 34 cents in one day and well below the $2.50 level reached in July.

The EPA extended a September 1 compliance deadline and said it plans to decide 34 pending requests from small refineries seeking exemptions from federal biofuel requirements. Market participants estimate those exemptions could free up between 1.2 billion and 1.8 billion RIN credits. 

For refiners, cheaper RINs can substantially reduce the cost of complying with federal blending rules.

For ethanol producers — and indirectly corn growers — the effect can run the other way. If refiners receive more exemptions or can satisfy mandates with cheaper credits, the economic incentive to blend additional renewable fuel can weaken.

It is a good example of how a regulatory decision in Washington can move hundreds of millions of dollars through the energy and agricultural economy without most consumers ever seeing the mechanism behind it.

Media — California Raises the Stakes on Paramount’s $110 Billion Warner Bros. Deal

California Attorney General Rob Bonta canceled settlement talks Monday over Paramount Skydance’s proposed $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, accusing Paramount of acting in bad faith by leaking details of earlier discussions. Paramount denied being responsible for the leaks.

California and 11 other states sued in July seeking to block the acquisition, arguing that the combination could reduce competition and give the enlarged company greater power to raise prices in film and television.

A trial is scheduled for March, and California has indicated that any settlement could require structural changes — potentially including the sale of assets — rather than simply promises about future behavior. 

That matters financially because time itself is becoming expensive for Paramount. The longer the acquisition remains unresolved, the greater the financing, legal and contractual costs of keeping a $110 billion transaction alive.

For consumers, the eventual structure could determine which company controls a massive collection of studios, cable networks and streaming assets.

Robotics — $900 Million Says Investors Think AI Is Leaving the Screen

Chinese automaker XPeng’s robotics division raised more than $900 million Monday at a valuation exceeding $6.3 billion, the largest single private financing yet in China’s embodied-AI sector.

Tencent and Alibaba participated alongside investment firms including IDG Capital. XPeng says the money will fund hardware, software, AI models and mass-production facilities.

The company is targeting production of 1,000 IRON humanoid robots per month by the end of 2026, initially using them in retail stores and industrial campuses before broader commercial sales in 2027. 

For businesses, this is the next stage of the AI investment cycle worth watching.

The first wave was software that could write, analyze and generate information. Increasing amounts of capital are now moving toward “physical AI” — machines intended eventually to work in warehouses, factories, stores and other environments where human labor is currently required.

What to Watch Tuesday

Tuesday, August 25, brings a useful test of both the American consumer and the housing market.

The U.S. Census Bureau will release July new-home sales at 10 a.m. ET. Housing has become particularly sensitive to elevated long-term interest rates, so the report will offer a fresh look at whether buyers are continuing to absorb expensive mortgage financing. 

The Conference Board is also scheduled to release its August Consumer Confidence Index, while regional manufacturing data will provide another read on business activity. These reports matter because markets are trying to determine whether the economy can continue growing while inflation, energy costs and interest rates remain elevated. 

On the corporate side, Dick’s Sporting Goods reports before the opening bell, providing another indication of discretionary consumer spending. Intuit, Zoom, HEICO and Box are among the companies scheduled after the close. Intuit will be particularly useful for small-business watchers because its QuickBooks and tax businesses give it exposure to millions of businesses and consumers. 

And technology investors will be trading Tuesday with one eye on Wednesday: Nvidia reports earnings August 26. After Monday’s semiconductor selloff, the results are becoming more than another earnings report. They will help determine whether investors still believe the extraordinary amount of money being poured into AI infrastructure can continue producing growth fast enough to justify current valuations. 

Monday’s biggest message was not that AI is slowing or that consumers have stopped spending. It was that the cost of growth is becoming harder to ignore. AI companies need enormous amounts of capital. Cheap global e-commerce is running into tariffs. An innovative Tesla product could not reach scale. And government decisions are moving billions of dollars through energy and media markets.

That is where Tuesday begins.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Wall Street opened Monday under pressure as investors sold semiconductor and other high-growth technology stocks ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, while a fresh U.S. sanctions offensive against Iran and stubbornly high Treasury yields added another layer of risk.

By 9:45 a.m. ET, the Nasdaq Composite was down 164.5 points, or 0.63%, at 26,015.94. The S&P 500 fell 20.8 points, or 0.27%, to 7,653.60, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the weakness and rose 112 points, or 0.21%, to 53,389.19.

The split tells the story.

This is not a broad market panic. It is a concentrated selloff in the part of the market that has carried much of Wall Street’s gains: AI, semiconductors and other expensive growth stocks.

Nvidia fell 2.44% early Monday. Marvell Technology and Micron Technology each dropped more than 6%, while Sandisk plunged 10.62%. The S&P 500 technology sector fell 1.11%, making it the weakest major sector in early trading.

At the same time, advancing stocks actually outnumbered decliners on the New York Stock Exchange by roughly 1.15 to 1.

That is important.

The Dow is rising because money is not simply leaving the market. Investors are rotating away from the most expensive technology names and into other sectors while they wait to see whether Nvidia can justify the expectations already built into AI valuations.

Nvidia reports Wednesday.

Analysts are looking for quarterly revenue of roughly $92 billion — nearly double the level from a year earlier. That would normally be an extraordinary number.

The problem for Nvidia is that extraordinary has become expected.

The stock has become the most important single barometer of the AI investment boom, and its earnings now influence everything from semiconductor manufacturers to data-center operators, utilities, networking companies and the broader Nasdaq.

A strong quarter may therefore not be enough. Investors will be looking for evidence that orders remain strong enough to support the hundreds of billions of dollars being committed to AI infrastructure worldwide.

That concern is already spreading beyond Nvidia.

Alibaba’s U.S.-listed shares fell about 1.2% after the Chinese technology giant announced a $10.2 billion share sale specifically to finance additional AI investment. The financing reinforces a question increasingly hanging over the sector: how much capital will companies need to spend before investors see sufficient returns?

The second pressure on Monday’s market is coming from Washington.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to detail what he has called an “economic D-Day” against Iran, with the administration threatening sanctions not only against Iranian entities but potentially against companies and countries that continue trading with Tehran.

That raises the stakes considerably.

China remains the largest buyer of Iranian oil, meaning aggressive secondary sanctions could affect energy flows, shipping, international trade and relations between Washington and Beijing.

Oil prices were actually falling roughly 2% Monday morning, as traders took profits after last week’s sharp increase. But that decline could reverse quickly depending on what Washington announces and how Iran responds.

The third problem is the bond market.

The 30-year Treasury yield remained above 5% Monday, despite Treasury’s decision last week to expand purchases of older long-dated bonds.

That matters because high Treasury yields directly compete with stocks for investor money.

When investors can earn more than 5% lending to the U.S. government for decades, companies trading at extremely high valuations must offer an even stronger earnings argument to justify the additional risk.

That pressure is particularly severe for technology stocks, whose valuations depend heavily on profits expected years into the future.

Monday’s opening therefore is not simply about one bad morning for Nvidia.

It is a test of whether the market can continue supporting enormous AI valuations while long-term interest rates remain above 5%, companies borrow and raise billions more to fund AI expansion, and geopolitical risk threatens to push energy prices higher again.

There is also important economic data coming Wednesday.

The government will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, on the same day Nvidia reports earnings.

Markets have now fully priced in at least one quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase before the end of 2026, although expectations for an immediate September move have eased.

That makes Wednesday unusually important.

If inflation comes in hot while Nvidia disappoints, Wall Street could face pressure simultaneously from higher interest-rate expectations and weaker confidence in the AI trade.

If inflation cools and Nvidia delivers another exceptional quarter, Monday’s chip selloff could instead become another buying opportunity.

For now, the message from the opening bell is clear: investors are not abandoning stocks — they are demanding a much higher burden of proof from the companies that have become the most expensive and important part of the market.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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The federal government keeps what amounts to its primary checking account at the Federal Reserve, using it to collect taxes, receive borrowed money and pay the nation’s bills. That account currently holds roughly $950 billion—and Treasury officials say some of that enormous cash reserve could potentially be used to expand purchases of long-term government bonds.

Two senior Treasury officials said Monday that the Treasury General Account, commonly known as the TGA, could help finance larger bond buybacks. They did not say how much money could be deployed or when a decision might be announced, leaving markets to calculate how aggressively Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may be prepared to intervene.

That uncertainty is the heart of the story.

Last week, the Treasury surprised markets by announcing that it would at least double the maximum size of certain buybacks of older long-term bonds, increasing them from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The purchases will target securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years beginning Sept. 9.

Bond buybacks allow the government to repurchase older Treasury securities that may be more difficult to trade. That can improve market liquidity, support bond prices and place downward pressure on yields—the interest rates the government must effectively offer investors to hold its debt.

The unanswered question was how Treasury would finance a significantly larger program.

Ordinarily, Treasury buybacks do not eliminate government borrowing. The department typically issues new securities and uses the proceeds to retire older ones, effectively changing the mix and maturity of the national debt rather than reducing it.

Many investors therefore assumed Treasury would finance expanded purchases by issuing additional short-term bills—borrowing at the short end of the market to buy back debt at the long end. That strategy has been compared with the Federal Reserve’s former “Operation Twist,” which was designed to influence long-term interest rates without dramatically expanding the central bank’s overall balance sheet.

Using existing Treasury cash would change the immediate calculation.

Treasury could initially fund purchases without issuing an equivalent amount of new debt at the same time, giving Bessent considerably more flexibility than the announced $4 billion-per-operation limit appeared to provide.

But the entire $950 billion is not unrestricted money waiting to be invested. The account also serves as the government’s operating reserve, covering Social Security, Medicare, military spending, federal salaries, debt payments and countless other daily obligations.

Treasury has also projected that its cash balance could rise above $1 trillion later this year because of unusually large expected outflows. Any money used for bond purchases may eventually have to be replenished through future tax receipts or borrowing.

Still, the size of the account gives the government substantial short-term firepower.

Treasury had previously operated with cash-balance targets closer to $550 billion to $600 billion. Its current projections assume a balance of approximately $950 billion at the end of September, followed by $850 billion at the end of December. Officials have said the balance could temporarily peak near $1.05 trillion in late October.

Markets reacted immediately to the possibility that some of that cash could support the bond market. Treasury yields moved lower Monday morning, with the 10-year yield retreating from around 4.70% to approximately 4.64%. The 30-year yield also pulled back after recently climbing above 5.30%.

The reaction reflected renewed confidence that Treasury may be prepared to purchase more than the market initially expected.

The previously announced $4 billion operations are small compared with a Treasury market exceeding $32 trillion. Treasury had earlier projected up to $38 billion in long-term liquidity-support buybacks during the quarter—a meaningful amount for individual parts of the market, but not enough by itself to transform the government’s borrowing outlook.

A cash reserve approaching $1 trillion creates the possibility of a much larger intervention, even if Treasury uses only a fraction of it.

For households and businesses, the consequences extend well beyond Wall Street.

The 10-year Treasury yield is a critical benchmark for mortgage rates, corporate borrowing and other forms of credit. When long-term government yields rise, lenders generally demand higher rates from homebuyers, companies and consumers. When those yields fall, borrowing conditions can gradually ease.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been running near 6.7%, placing additional pressure on a housing market already strained by high prices and limited affordability. Businesses are also facing more expensive credit lines, equipment financing and construction loans.

That makes Bessent’s effort relevant to anyone trying to purchase a home, refinance debt, expand a company or finance a major investment.

The strategy is not without controversy.

Critics argue that Treasury is moving beyond routine debt management and attempting to influence long-term interest rates—traditionally the territory of the Federal Reserve. Lowering long-term yields could also loosen financial conditions while Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is working to control inflation.

Treasury officials reject the suggestion that the department has abandoned its commitment to regular and predictable debt management. They say the expanded buybacks are intended to improve liquidity in older, less frequently traded securities—not to establish a permanent government program for controlling interest rates.

The distinction will become increasingly difficult to maintain if the purchases grow substantially.

With the national debt now above $40 trillion and annual federal interest costs approaching historic levels, rising bond yields have become more than a market problem. They directly increase the cost of financing the government and can consume money that would otherwise support federal programs, national defense or tax relief.

The question is no longer whether Bessent is willing to intervene in the Treasury market. He already has.

The question now is how much of the government’s enormous cash reserve he is prepared to put behind that intervention—and whether temporary support for bond prices can provide lasting relief from the deeper fiscal pressures driving yields higher.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Wall Street recovered Friday, but the rebound did not erase what changed underneath the market this week. Long-term borrowing costs remain near levels not seen in almost two decades, oil has climbed for six consecutive sessions, and investors are moving money into gold and cryptocurrency even as the American economy is showing surprising strength.

The most important economic news Friday was actually positive: U.S. businesses are growing considerably faster than economists expected. At the same time, several developments in technology, privacy regulation and global shipping showed where new costs and risks are appearing for companies.

Markets — Dow Jumps More Than 500 Points, but Bonds Remain the Problem

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,280.14, up 520.93 points, or 0.99%. The S&P 500 gained 32.94 points, or 0.43%, to 7,674.10, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 112.20 points, or 0.43%, to 26,179.37.

All three still finished the week lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped three-week winning streaks, while the Dow recorded a second consecutive weekly decline. 

The issue investors have not solved is the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.73% Friday, while the 30-year yield remained near its highest level since 2007. That matters well beyond Wall Street. Treasury yields flow directly into mortgages, commercial real-estate financing, corporate borrowing and the valuation investors are willing to place on expensive technology stocks. 

Oil added another source of pressure. Brent crude settled at $94.39 a barrel, up 6.4% for the week, while U.S. crude finished at $87.06, after President Trump threatened economic consequences for countries continuing to trade with Iran. 

Gold moved in the opposite direction from the dollar. U.S. gold futures jumped 2.4% to $4,680.60 an ounce, while spot gold climbed above $4,600 for the first time since May. Investors increasingly appear to be using gold as protection against uncertainty surrounding government debt, inflation and monetary policy. 

Crypto stocks were among Friday’s biggest winners. Bitcoin moved above $77,000, helping Robinhood jump about 13% and Coinbase roughly 8%. Freeport-McMoRan climbed about 7.6% alongside stronger metals prices. On the downside, security-equipment maker OSI Systems fell more than 8% after weaker revenue and delays tied to Middle East disruptions. 

Economy — U.S. Business Activity Suddenly Accelerates

The strongest economic development of the day may have received less attention than the stock rally.

S&P Global’s preliminary August survey showed the U.S. services PMI jumping to 56.8 from 54.6, its strongest reading since December 2024. The broader Composite Output Index rose to 56.0, its highest level since April 2022.

Anything above 50 indicates expansion.

Manufacturing moved in the other direction, slipping to 53.2, a five-month low, as supply disruptions and reduced inventory building slowed factory activity.

But services are so strong that S&P Global said its surveys currently point toward annualized third-quarter economic growth approaching 3%, roughly double the 1.5% pace recorded in the second quarter. Services companies also increased hiring at the fastest pace in 19 months. 

For business owners, this is an important distinction.

The economy is not broadly slowing. Restaurants, financial companies, professional services, travel and other service businesses are expanding rapidly even while manufacturers face higher energy costs and supply problems.

That makes the Federal Reserve’s job harder. Strong growth reduces the urgency to cut interest rates, while oil and elevated business costs keep the inflation threat alive.

AI & Infrastructure — Nvidia Moves Beyond Chips and Into the Land and Power Behind Them

Nvidia made another move Friday showing that the AI boom is becoming as much an infrastructure business as a semiconductor business.

The company took a minority stake in Cloverleaf Infrastructure, a developer that works with utilities, energy companies and investors to secure powered sites for large data centers.

Financial terms were not disclosed.

Cloverleaf says it has already delivered multiple gigawatt-scale projects in North America. Under the partnership, the company will use Nvidia’s DSX platform to coordinate decisions involving land, electricity, cooling and computing capacity. 

The important part is what Nvidia is becoming.

It is no longer simply waiting for Microsoft, OpenAI, Amazon and other customers to build data centers and buy its GPUs. Nvidia is increasingly investing in the power developers and infrastructure companies that make those data centers possible.

The bottleneck in AI is shifting.

Chips remain scarce and expensive, but electricity, grid connections, water, land and construction capacity are increasingly determining how quickly new computing capacity can actually come online.

That means utilities, contractors, electrical-equipment manufacturers, real-estate developers and communities with available power are becoming part of the AI investment story.

Regulation — Uber Hit With $966 Million Fine Over Automated Worker Decisions

Europe delivered one of its strongest warnings yet about allowing algorithms to make employment decisions without meaningful human involvement.

The Dutch Data Protection Authority fined Uber €825 million, approximately $966 million, after finding that driver accounts had been automatically deactivated without drivers receiving adequate explanations or human review.

It is the second-largest penalty issued under Europe’s GDPR privacy law.

Uber disputes the decision and said it will appeal. The company says its current system includes human review and allows drivers to challenge suspensions. 

The broader business implication goes well beyond Uber.

Companies are increasingly using software and AI to screen job applicants, detect fraud, determine creditworthiness, evaluate employees and decide which customers or workers should be removed from platforms.

European regulators are signaling that when an automated decision can cost someone their livelihood, businesses cannot simply point to an algorithm and consider the matter finished.

That creates a new compliance requirement for companies deploying AI: automation may save labor, but consequential decisions increasingly require explanation, appeal procedures and human oversight.

Technology & Consumer Privacy — TikTok Agrees to $400 Million Children’s Privacy Settlement

TikTok and the U.S. Justice Department reached a $400 million settlement Friday resolving allegations that TikTok and parent company ByteDance violated federal children’s privacy law.

The government sued in 2024, alleging TikTok knowingly allowed children younger than 13 to use regular accounts and collected personal information without obtaining required parental consent.

Under the settlement, the government’s lawsuit is being dismissed with prejudice.

The case is especially important because TikTok now serves more than 200 million Americans and recently reorganized its U.S. operations through a majority American-owned joint venture. 

For technology companies, retailers and websites collecting customer information, the message is straightforward.

Age verification, parental consent and data-retention rules are moving from technical compliance issues into nine-figure financial risks.

As companies use increasingly sophisticated AI systems to identify and target customers, regulators are simultaneously demanding much tighter controls around children’s information.

Global Trade — Low Rhine River Levels Trigger New Container Fees

A less glamorous development Friday could soon show up on invoices paid by importers.

French shipping giant CMA CGM announced an emergency inland surcharge because unusually low water levels on the Rhine and other European rivers are reducing barge capacity and causing congestion and longer terminal stays.

The company will charge €50 per container for certain shipments moving through Belgium and the Netherlands and €75 per container for shipments connected to Germany, Switzerland and France.

The fees apply to inland shipments routed through major European ports including Rotterdam, Antwerp and Zeebrugge. 

The amount itself is relatively small compared with an ocean freight bill.

The warning behind it is more important.

Low river levels reduce the amount of cargo barges can safely carry. That forces freight onto additional barges, trucks and rail networks and can create bottlenecks extending far beyond the river itself.

For American importers buying European machinery, chemicals, automotive components or manufactured goods, it is another reminder that weather can become a supply-chain cost almost immediately.

Corporate Tax — Apple Paid Ireland $17.1 Billion in One Year

Apple disclosed Friday that it paid $17.1 billion in taxes to Ireland during its last fiscal year, representing roughly 40% of the company’s entire worldwide income-tax bill.

Apple paid $43.2 billion in income taxes globally.

The Irish figure was unusually large because it included roughly €13 billion in back taxes Apple was ordered to pay after the European Union’s highest court concluded that Ireland had provided the company with illegal tax advantages. 

The number demonstrates just how consequential international tax structures have become for multinational companies.

For years, U.S. technology and pharmaceutical companies used Ireland as a European headquarters because of its business environment and tax system. Governments are now scrutinizing those structures far more aggressively.

The Apple payment shows that a tax dispute that begins as an accounting question can eventually turn into a liability measured in tens of billions of dollars.

What to Watch Saturday — and the Setup for Monday

U.S. markets are closed Saturday, August 22, so the immediate watch is for developments that could change prices before futures reopen Sunday evening.

The first is Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Oil has now risen for six consecutive sessions, and any weekend escalation, sanctions announcement or movement toward reopening shipping routes could produce a sizable move when energy trading resumes.

The second is the bond market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s effort to calm long-term yields produced only temporary relief this week. If investors continue demanding higher returns to hold 10- and 30-year U.S. debt, borrowing costs will remain one of the biggest obstacles facing stocks, housing and business investment. 

And the next major test for technology arrives Wednesday, August 26, when Nvidia reports earnings. Investors will be looking beyond chip sales to determine whether the enormous amounts of money being committed to AI data centers are still translating into sufficient demand and profits. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole appearance and the next PCE inflation report will follow later in the week. 

Friday’s message was therefore more complicated than a 500-point Dow rally suggests.

American businesses are growing faster. But money remains expensive, oil is rising, AI infrastructure is consuming extraordinary amounts of capital, and regulators are beginning to impose enormous costs when technology moves faster than oversight.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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BJ’s Wholesale Club delivered a strong second-quarter report Friday, with consumers continuing to reward warehouse clubs even as spending becomes more selective across the broader retail economy.

For the quarter ended August 1, BJ’s reported $6.23 billion in total revenue, up 15.7% from a year earlier. Net sales rose 15.9% to $6.09 billion, while net income increased 15.4% to $173.9 million. Diluted earnings were $1.36 a share, up from $1.14 a year earlier and comfortably ahead of Wall Street expectations.

The headline sales increase, however, needs some explanation. Comparable-club sales rose 11.9% overall, but only 3.1% when gasoline is excluded. That means higher fuel sales accounted for a substantial portion of the reported growth. Even so, the 3.1% merchandise increase was stronger than analysts expected and showed that shoppers were still increasing purchases inside BJ’s clubs.

Membership is becoming an increasingly important part of the business. Membership-fee income rose 9.9% to $135.6 million, and BJ’s said its member count reached a record 8.5 million. The growth came from new-member acquisition, strong retention and more customers moving into higher-priced membership tiers.

Digital shopping is growing even faster. Digitally enabled comparable sales increased about 30%, showing that the warehouse-club model is no longer dependent entirely on customers making large physical shopping trips. BJ’s is increasingly combining its traditional bulk-discount model with online ordering, pickup and delivery.

The company also produced stronger operating results. Operating income rose 16.5% to $252.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 14.3% to $347.2 million. BJ’s opened three clubs and one gas station during the quarter and repurchased roughly $124 million of its own shares.

Management responded by raising its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $4.60 to $4.80 a share, from its previous outlook of $4.40 to $4.60. BJ’s kept its forecast for comparable-club sales excluding gasoline at growth of 2% to 3% for the year.

For consumers, the report says something broader about the economy.

Households have not stopped spending, but they are increasingly looking for a clear value proposition. Warehouse clubs benefit because they can spread lower margins across high-volume purchases while generating recurring income from memberships. Bulk groceries, household products and discounted gasoline become particularly attractive when families are trying to stretch the same paycheck further.

BJ’s results therefore sit inside a larger shift in retail. Consumers may cut discretionary purchases, postpone expensive items or trade down from premium brands, yet continue spending heavily at stores where they believe the savings are measurable.

That is why the membership number may ultimately matter as much as the quarterly sales number. A record 8.5 million members gives BJ’s a larger recurring customer base and creates a powerful incentive for those households to concentrate more of their grocery, fuel and household spending inside the BJ’s ecosystem.

For investors, Friday’s report is evidence that value-oriented retail remains one of the more resilient corners of the consumer economy — even when the headline 16% revenue increase is adjusted for the unusually strong contribution from gasoline.

JBizNews Desk | Marlborough, Mass.

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Wall Street opened higher Friday morning, but the rebound is beginning under the same pressure that dominated the entire week: investors are still watching the Treasury market almost as closely as stocks.

At the 9:30 a.m. ET opening bell on Friday, August 21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 9.7 points to 52,768.87, the S&P 500 gained 24.5 points to 7,665.68, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 131.7 points to 26,198.84. The early recovery follows Thursday’s sharp selloff, although all three major indexes remain on course for weekly losses. 

The encouraging part for stocks is that the bond market is no longer moving violently. The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.70% Friday morning and the 30-year yield near 5.25%. Those levels are still high enough to pressure mortgages, corporate borrowing and expensive technology valuations, but the relative stability is giving equities room to recover. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision this week to at least double planned purchases of certain longer-term government bonds briefly pushed yields lower, although much of that relief has since disappeared. 

Then, 15 minutes after the market opened, investors received a surprisingly strong reading on the American economy.

S&P Global’s August services PMI jumped to 56.8 from 54.6, its strongest level since December 2024 and well above economists’ expectation of 54.0. The broader composite index climbed to 56.0, its highest since April 2022, while the manufacturing PMI slowed to 53.2 from 53.9, a five-month low. Any number above 50 indicates expansion. 

The important takeaway is the split beneath those numbers. American factories are still expanding, but growth is slowing as the Iran war disrupts supply chains and higher energy prices interfere with production. Services, meanwhile, are accelerating rapidly. New service-sector business grew at the fastest pace since December 2024, and hiring increased at the strongest rate in 19 months. S&P Global said the surveys are consistent with U.S. economic growth approaching a 3% annualized rate in the third quarter, roughly double the 1.5% pace recorded in the second quarter. 

That is good news for businesses and employment, but not automatically good news for interest rates. A stronger economy gives the Federal Reserve less reason to lower borrowing costs and more room to raise rates if inflation remains stubborn. Minutes released Wednesday showed several Fed officials were already prepared to raise rates in July, while others indicated a hike may become necessary if inflation does not continue moving toward 2%. 

Retail is producing one of Friday’s clearest winners. Ross Stores rallied more than 5% in early trading after beating Wall Street expectations and sharply raising its annual profit forecast. The discount retailer now expects earnings of $8.61 to $8.77 a share, up from its previous forecast of $7.50 to $7.74. Second-quarter revenue rose about 13% to $6.26 billion, and management expects comparable sales to rise 6% to 7% this quarter. 

That result is particularly interesting one day after Walmart plunged more than 9% following its slowest comparable-sales growth in six years. Consumers do not appear to have stopped spending altogether. Instead, this week’s retail results increasingly suggest they are becoming more aggressive about finding value — a trend benefiting discount and warehouse retailers while putting pressure on companies that cannot clearly demonstrate lower prices. 

Crypto stocks are another major pocket of strength. Bitcoin was trading near $77,000 Friday morning, up more than 20% for the week, after President Trump urged Congress to advance legislation establishing clearer federal rules for digital assets. The rally is also being fueled by concerns about the dollar and government debt following Treasury’s bond-market intervention. Coinbase and Robinhood were both sharply higher in early trading, while Strategy and several bitcoin miners also extended their gains. 

SpaceX is also being watched closely after approximately 319 million previously restricted shares became eligible for trading Thursday. The stock was up less than 1% early Friday, suggesting the second major unlock has so far been absorbed without the type of heavy selling some investors feared. 

Oil remains the largest outside threat to Friday’s rebound. Brent crude was trading around $94 a barrel, roughly $20 above its level before the Iran war, as Washington threatens what Bessent described as the toughest economic sanctions yet against Tehran. The continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil more than 5% higher this week and is feeding directly into concerns about inflation, transportation costs and consumer spending. 

There is also a trade deadline hanging over the market. U.S. and Canadian negotiators are meeting for a third consecutive day Friday as they try to finish an agreement before new 50% U.S. tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods are scheduled to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Saturday. Canadian officials say the two sides are close, but unresolved issues remain. Any breakthrough — or breakdown — could move industrial, transportation, construction and consumer stocks before Friday’s close. 

For the rest of the trading day, the most important number may not be the Dow. It is 4.70%.

If the 10-year Treasury yield can remain around that level or move lower despite the stronger PMI report, Friday’s rebound has room to broaden. If yields begin climbing again toward the week’s highs, technology and AI shares could quickly come back under pressure.

Oil is the second number to watch. A renewed move toward $95 Brent would reinforce inflation fears. And after this morning’s surprisingly strong services report, investors have even less margin for another inflationary shock.

Friday may therefore determine whether this week ends as a temporary bond-market scare — or the beginning of a more serious reassessment of what higher borrowing costs mean for stocks, consumers and the AI investment boom.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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Wall Street’s Thursday selloff was about more than Walmart. The bond market’s brief relief disappeared, oil climbed above $93, and investors received an uncomfortable set of signals from the American economy: companies are still reluctant to lay workers off and factories are getting busier, yet the country’s largest retailer says shoppers are increasingly making trade-offs.

Markets — Dow Drops Nearly 700 Points as Wednesday’s Bond Relief Vanishes

The S&P 500 closed at 7,642.69, down 0.85%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 681.62 points, or 1.27%, to 52,781.43, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.00% to 26,067.81. 

The important move was again in bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield moved back toward 4.7% and the 30-year yield climbed again after Wednesday’s Treasury intervention had temporarily pushed long-term borrowing costs lower. Investors are increasingly questioning whether government bond buybacks can counter the larger forces pushing yields higher: government borrowing, inflation risk and enormous corporate capital needs. 

Oil added another layer of pressure. Brent crude climbed 2.4% to roughly $93.78 a barrel, while U.S. crude moved above $87 as Middle East supply risks remained unresolved. Higher energy costs hit airlines, cruise companies and consumer stocks while supporting the energy sector. 

Among Thursday’s major movers, Walmart fell 9.6%, Advance Auto Parts plunged 26.7%, Deere gained 6.8%, Norwegian Cruise Line dropped 5.3% and United Airlines fell 4.1%. 

Retail — Walmart Just Gave the Clearest Warning Yet About the Consumer

Walmart reported its slowest comparable-sales growth in six years, with U.S. comparable sales increasing only 2.6% versus the 3.8% Wall Street expected. Store-traffic growth slowed to 1.5%, while average spending per transaction increased just 1.1%, down sharply from 3.1% a year earlier. 

That is particularly significant because Walmart has been one of the biggest beneficiaries when households become more price conscious. Consumers normally trade down toward Walmart during difficult economic periods. Weakness there therefore suggests something different: some families may no longer simply be changing where they shop — they may be reducing what they buy.

Walmart said gasoline prices above $4 were forcing shoppers to make trade-offs and now expects roughly $2 billion more in fuel costs than previously forecast. The company is responding aggressively, rolling back prices on about 11,000 products, partly using $2.9 billion in tariff refunds to finance the reductions. Its e-commerce business remained much stronger, growing 24%, while advertising revenue jumped 43%. 

The contradiction is important. Walmart actually raised its full-year sales and profit forecast, yet investors erased tens of billions of dollars from its market value because they were more concerned about what the quarter revealed about the consumer.

For retailers, restaurants and other consumer-facing businesses, Thursday’s Walmart report may be more useful than a government survey: the customer is still spending, but increasingly deciding what can wait.

Industrial Economy — Deere Finds a New Growth Engine in AI Data Centers

John Deere reported its first quarterly profit increase in three years, but the surprise was where much of the strength came from.

Deere’s construction and forestry sales rose 18%, becoming its fastest-growing business as spending on infrastructure and the enormous buildout of AI data centers increases demand for heavy machinery. Customer backlogs in the division now extend well into fiscal 2027. 

Meanwhile, Deere’s traditional large-farm machinery business remains weak. Production and Precision Agriculture revenue declined 6% as lower crop economics continue to discourage purchases of expensive tractors and combines. Deere still believes 2026 will mark the bottom of the agricultural-equipment cycle. 

That makes Deere an unusually useful window into the U.S. economy.

Farmers are pulling back while data-center builders are buying.

Deere now expects full-year net income of $4.75 billion to $5 billion, raising the lower end of its prior forecast. It also received a $110 million tariff refund during the quarter, although management expects net tariff costs of about $750 million this year and approximately $1 billion in 2027. 

The AI boom is therefore no longer just creating revenue for Nvidia, chip designers and cloud providers. It is selling excavators and construction machinery.

Global Technology — Alibaba’s AI Bet Is Growing Faster Than Its Profits Can Handle

Alibaba reported a dramatic 75% decline in quarterly net profit even though revenue rose 9%.

The reason was not collapse in the underlying business. It was spending.

Alibaba is pouring enormous amounts of capital into AI infrastructure, cloud computing and chips. Capital expenditure jumped 75% to about 67.7 billion yuan, while cloud and AI-services revenue surged 45% to 48.44 billion yuan. 

Alibaba has already spent roughly half of the 380 billion yuan — about $56 billion — it plans to invest in AI between 2026 and 2029. CEO Eddie Wu said the company believes those investments can reach break-even within roughly three years. 

The business question is becoming familiar across the technology industry: companies no longer need to prove that AI demand exists.

They need to prove that the extraordinary amount of money required to serve that demand will eventually produce acceptable returns.

Alibaba’s U.S.-listed shares fell about 4.6% Thursday as investors confronted that arithmetic. 

Economy — Factories Are Accelerating Even as Consumers Become More Cautious

Thursday’s economic data complicated the slowdown narrative.

Initial unemployment claims fell by 6,000 to 206,000 for the week ended August 15, below economists’ expectation of 210,000. Continuing claims rose to 1.799 million but remain relatively low. The picture is increasingly one of a low-hire, low-fire labor market: companies are reluctant to add workers aggressively, but they are not conducting widespread layoffs either. 

Manufacturing data were considerably stronger.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index jumped to 47.4 in August from 41.4 in July, its highest reading since April 2021. Nearly 57% of surveyed manufacturers reported increasing activity, while the employment index rose to its highest level since April 2022. 

Perhaps most striking, the index measuring manufacturers’ expectations for activity six months from now surged to 73.6, its highest reading since August 1983. 

But there is a catch for business owners: 38% of manufacturers said customers have become more price sensitive since last quarter. Among firms expecting near-term industry cost changes, 80% believe competitors will respond by raising prices. 

That is an unusual combination — businesses are increasingly optimistic about production while becoming more aware that customers may resist higher prices.

Food Distribution — A $1 Billion Hedge-Fund Bet Puts AI Inside Sysco’s Trucks and Warehouses

D.E. Shaw has accumulated a stake worth more than $1 billion in Sysco, the world’s largest food distributor.

The investment is particularly important because the hedge fund is supporting Sysco’s attempt to use artificial intelligence, automation and technology to transform its enormous distribution network. Sysco expects those initiatives to produce roughly $100 million in savings during fiscal 2027. 

Sysco is also adding directors with technology, e-commerce and food-distribution experience as it prepares for its planned acquisition of Restaurant Depot. D.E. Shaw is expected to help the company raise capital for that transaction. 

For restaurants and food businesses, this is more than an activist-investor story.

AI is increasingly moving into one of the least glamorous but most consequential parts of the economy: predicting how much food businesses need, routing trucks, automating orders, managing warehouses and reducing spoilage.

Enterprise AI — Anthropic Moves to Give Businesses More Control of Their Data

Anthropic is preparing to give enterprise customers greater control over how their data are retained when using advanced Claude models, according to a person familiar with the company’s plans.

The company is also preparing a new safety system expected later this year. 

For corporate AI adoption, data retention has become one of the biggest obstacles standing between experimentation and full deployment. Businesses are increasingly willing to use AI, but banks, healthcare companies, law firms, manufacturers and large corporations remain cautious about where confidential prompts, documents and outputs are stored.

Anthropic’s change shows where the enterprise AI competition is moving.

The winning model may not simply be the smartest one.

It may be the one a company’s legal, compliance and cybersecurity departments are willing to approve.

What to Watch Friday

BJ’s Wholesale Club reports Friday morning, with its earnings call scheduled for 8:00 a.m. Eastern. After Walmart’s rare sales miss, BJ’s becomes a particularly useful second reading on value-oriented consumers and whether warehouse clubs are seeing the same trade-offs in grocery, fuel and discretionary spending. 

At 9:45 a.m. ET, S&P Global releases its flash August U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs. Economists are looking for manufacturing activity to remain in expansion territory around the mid-50s, making the report important after Thursday’s exceptionally strong Philadelphia Fed reading. 

At 10:00 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July state employment and unemployment figures. The report will show where the national labor slowdown is actually concentrated and could be particularly important for businesses evaluating regional hiring conditions. 

Oil and Treasury yields may still matter more than any single earnings report.

If Brent remains above $90 while long-term Treasury yields continue climbing, businesses could face a difficult combination going into the weekend: expensive financing, expensive energy and a consumer who is becoming increasingly careful about every dollar.

That was Thursday’s real business story.

The economy is not collapsing. Factories are busy, layoffs remain low and AI-related investment is booming.

But the cost of running a business is rising again at precisely the moment customers are becoming harder to convince to spend.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Wall Street opened lower Thursday as Walmart delivered a rare sales disappointment, Treasury yields moved back toward uncomfortable levels and another jump in oil prices reminded investors that the Iran confrontation is still capable of changing the inflation outlook almost overnight.

At the opening bell on Thursday, August 20, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 81.8 points to 53,381.22, the S&P 500 dropped 17.5 points to 7,690.49, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 119.6 points to 26,211.52.

The numbers themselves are not dramatic. The pressure underneath them is.

Long-term Treasury yields are climbing again after Wednesday’s extraordinary intervention by the Treasury Department, which announced it would at least double purchases of certain longer-dated government bonds. The move temporarily relieved a bond market that had been demanding increasingly high interest rates to finance Washington’s growing debt load, but Thursday morning the 10-year yield was again hovering near 4.7%.

Oil is adding to that pressure. Brent crude climbed to roughly $94 a barrel, while U.S. crude approached $87, after President Trump threatened a much tougher economic campaign against Iran. Higher oil prices matter far beyond energy stocks: they raise transportation and production costs and can make it harder for inflation to continue cooling.

Thursday’s economic data gave investors an unusual combination of low layoffs and very strong manufacturing activity.

New applications for unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 to 206,000 for the week ended August 15, below economists’ expectations of about 210,000. Continuing claims rose by 18,000 to 1.799 million. The message is that companies still are not laying workers off aggressively, even as hiring has softened.

At the same time, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index unexpectedly climbed to 47.4 in August from 41.4 in July, crushing expectations near 25 and reaching its strongest level in years. Employment inside the survey jumped sharply as well, while the prices-paid index dropped to 40.9 from 53.9.

The arithmetic for the Federal Reserve is complicated. A resilient labor market and stronger factory activity argue against rushing to lower rates, while easing price pressures argue that inflation may still be moving in the right direction. Investors already knew from Wednesday’s Fed minutes that a September rate increase has not completely disappeared from the discussion.

The biggest corporate story is Walmart.

Shares fell about 6% around the opening after Walmart’s U.S. comparable sales increased only 2.6%, versus expectations for roughly 3.8%. That was Walmart’s first comparable-sales miss in at least five years and a notable warning because the retailer has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of consumers trading down in search of lower prices.

Walmart itself is hardly collapsing. Quarterly revenue rose nearly 6% to $187.9 billion, U.S. e-commerce sales jumped 24%, its advertising business grew 43%, and the company actually raised its full-year sales forecast.

The concern is underneath those numbers: store traffic growth slowed and the average amount spent per transaction increased only 1.1%. Walmart also expects third-quarter adjusted earnings of 62 to 64 cents a share, below Wall Street expectations around 68 cents.

For investors trying to understand the consumer, that distinction matters. Americans are still shopping. They are simply becoming more selective about where the money goes.

Elsewhere, Alibaba’s U.S.-listed shares fell after adjusted profit missed expectations as the Chinese technology giant increased spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure by 75%. Its cloud business is growing quickly — AI cloud and computing revenue jumped 45% — but investors are being reminded again that the global AI race requires enormous amounts of capital before those investments translate into profits.

Crypto is moving in the opposite direction. Bitcoin pushed above $70,000 after Trump urged Congress to pass the stalled Clarity Act following his White House meeting with cryptocurrency executives. Coinbase, Strategy, Circle, Robinhood and several crypto miners moved sharply higher.

Moderna, meanwhile, pulled back after Wednesday’s extraordinary 177% surge following successful late-stage results for its personalized mRNA melanoma treatment with Merck. The retreat is less a reversal of the medical news than investors recalibrating after one of the largest single-day moves ever for a major pharmaceutical company.

For the rest of Thursday, three markets deserve as much attention as the Dow itself: Treasury yields, crude oil and Walmart.

If the 10-year yield pushes materially above 4.7%, expensive technology and AI shares could again come under pressure. If oil continues climbing toward $90 in the U.S., the market will begin recalculating inflation expectations. And if Walmart’s decline spreads into other retailers, investors may start treating its sales miss as evidence of a broader consumer slowdown rather than a Walmart-specific quarter.

The Conference Board’s July Leading Economic Index is also scheduled for release at 10 a.m. ET and could provide another read on where the economy is headed.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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The U.S. Treasury is doubling its purchases of older government bonds after a punishing market selloff drove long-term borrowing costs to their highest levels in roughly two decades.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the department will increase its buybacks of longer-dated securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion over the next two months. The announcement quickly steadied the bond market, pushing Treasury yields lower and providing relief to stocks.

The move matters far beyond Wall Street. Treasury yields help determine mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, auto loans and the interest the government must pay on its rapidly growing debt. When investors demand higher yields to hold Treasury bonds, borrowing becomes more expensive across the economy.

The selloff intensified as the national debt crossed $40 trillion and investors became increasingly concerned about inflation, federal spending and the enormous volume of bonds Washington must sell to finance its obligations.

The buybacks are designed to improve trading in older, less-liquid Treasury securities. They do not erase federal debt or reduce the government’s overall borrowing needs. In practical terms, Washington is buying back difficult-to-trade bonds while continuing to issue new debt elsewhere.

That distinction is important. The intervention can calm a disorderly market, but it does not resolve the underlying arithmetic: the United States continues borrowing faster than revenues are growing, while higher interest rates make every new round of financing more expensive.

For consumers, the immediate benefit could be some relief in mortgage and other long-term borrowing rates if Treasury yields remain lower. But unless inflation, deficits and federal borrowing come under control, the pressure can quickly return.

JBizNews Desk | Washington

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The United States government has now crossed $40 trillion in gross federal debt for the first time, a number so large that it is almost impossible to comprehend.

One comparison makes it much easier.

The combined value of all residential real estate in the United States is roughly $55 trillion.

That means Washington’s debt is now equal to about three-quarters of the value of every house, condo and residential property in the entire country combined.

Put differently, America would need the equivalent value of roughly 40 million homes worth $1 million each to match the federal debt.

If the $40 trillion were divided equally among every person in the United States, the burden would be roughly $117,000 for every man, woman and child.

For a family of four, that theoretical share would be about $468,000.

Another way to grasp the scale: if someone spent $1 million every single day, it would take nearly 110,000 years to spend $40 trillion.

Even spending more than $1.2 million every second, around the clock for an entire year, would only get close.

The more important question, however, is whether that means America is effectively bankrupt.

The answer is no — not in the way a household or company becomes bankrupt.

The federal government has powers ordinary borrowers do not.

It can tax the world’s largest economy. It issues debt primarily in U.S. dollars. The dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency. And U.S. Treasury securities remain one of the most important financial assets in the world.

As long as investors continue buying Treasuries, Washington can refinance bonds as they mature and keep borrowing.

That is why crossing $40 trillion does not mean the government suddenly runs out of money.

But it does mean the country is extraordinarily leveraged.

The U.S. economy produces roughly $32 trillion to $33 trillion of goods and services a year.

Gross federal debt is therefore now equal to roughly 120% to 125% of one year of U.S. economic output.

That comparison requires context.

GDP is annual economic production. Debt is accumulated over many years.

A household earning $200,000 annually can carry a $300,000 mortgage without being bankrupt.

The real question is whether the borrower can comfortably service the debt — and whether that debt is growing faster than income.

That is where America’s problem becomes more serious.

Washington continues running enormous annual deficits, meaning the debt keeps increasing even when the economy is not in recession.

At the same time, higher interest rates are making that borrowing more expensive.

Interest on the federal debt is now approaching or exceeding $1 trillion a year, putting it among the largest categories of federal spending.

That money does not build roads, fund schools, buy military equipment or reduce taxes.

It pays for money the government already borrowed.

There is also an important distinction inside the $40 trillion.

Roughly $32 trillion is debt held by the public — owned by investors, pension funds, banks, foreign governments, the Federal Reserve and others.

The remainder is largely money Treasury owes to other federal government accounts and trust funds.

Economists therefore often focus more closely on debt held by the public when measuring fiscal stress.

Even using that narrower measure, U.S. debt is now roughly the size of the entire American economy.

Now compare it with the world.

Global GDP is roughly $125 trillion to $130 trillion annually.

That means the U.S. government’s $40 trillion debt pile alone is equal to almost one-third of everything the entire world produces in one year.

That does not mean America owes one-third of global wealth.

But it shows the extraordinary scale of one government’s accumulated borrowing.

The real danger is not that Washington wakes up tomorrow and files for bankruptcy.

The danger is that the debt increasingly constrains the country’s choices.

Treasury must continuously issue bonds to refinance old debt and fund new deficits. If investors demand higher yields to absorb all that borrowing, the effect does not stay inside Washington.

Treasury rates help determine mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, commercial real-estate financing, auto loans and business credit.

That means the cost of America’s debt can eventually become the cost of borrowing for ordinary households and businesses.

Washington ultimately has only a few ways to deal with persistent debt growth.

It can raise taxes.

It can cut spending.

It can borrow more.

Or inflation can reduce the real purchasing power of existing dollars.

In practice, governments usually use some combination of all four.

That is why the $40 trillion milestone is more than another large number.

It is a growing claim on future taxpayers, future federal budgets and future economic growth.

And the easiest way to understand just how large it has become is this:

The federal government now owes an amount equal to roughly three-quarters of the combined value of every residential property in the entire United States.

America is not bankrupt.

But the scale of its leverage is becoming impossible to ignore.

JBizNews Desk | Washington

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Moderna shares soared 177% Wednesday, nearly tripling from $62.96 to $174.38 and adding approximately $44 billion to the company’s market value.

It was Moderna’s biggest one-day gain ever and the largest advance by an S&P 500 company in at least 25 years. The last member of the index even to double in one session was Hartford Financial, which gained 102.4% during the financial crisis on December 5, 2008.

The historic rally followed a medical breakthrough. Moderna and Merck said their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine succeeded in a Phase 3 trial involving patients with high-risk melanoma, becoming the first personalized mRNA cancer treatment to achieve that milestone.

The vaccine is created separately for each patient. Scientists analyze mutations inside the patient’s tumor and produce a customized treatment that trains the immune system to recognize and attack those cancer cells.

Combined with Merck’s Keytruda, the vaccine significantly extended the time before melanoma returned or spread following surgery.

The result could transform Moderna, which has struggled to replace declining COVID-19 vaccine revenue. It also gives Merck a potential way to strengthen its cancer franchise as Keytruda approaches the loss of important patent protections.

Merck shares climbed 12.6% to a record, while BioNTech jumped approximately 20%. Investors betting against Moderna suffered an estimated $5 billion in losses, and their rush to repurchase shares added fuel to the rally.

Moderna and Merck are preparing to seek regulatory approval, with a possible U.S. launch next year. The same technology is also being tested against other cancers, meaning Wednesday’s breakthrough could extend far beyond melanoma.

JBizNews Desk | Cambridge

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Wall Street broke its three-day losing streak Wednesday, but the modest index gains concealed a much bigger day underneath the market.

Moderna delivered a breakthrough late-stage result for its personalized melanoma vaccine, Treasury intervened to calm long-term bond markets, Federal Reserve officials showed a stronger willingness to raise interest rates, and several major developments demonstrated how quickly AI computing is becoming an industry with its own chips, energy infrastructure and financial markets.

Markets — Stocks Recover as Treasury Calms the Bond Market

The S&P 500 gained 0.24% to close at 7,709.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 123.94 points, or 0.23%, to 53,467.34, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.15% to finish at 26,331.09.

The rebound came after the Treasury Department said it would at least double the maximum size of certain buybacks involving longer-term government debt, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation.

The move targeted the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year portions of the Treasury market, where rising yields had been increasing borrowing costs and placing pressure on expensive technology stocks.

The 30-year Treasury yield, which had touched its highest level since 2007, retreated toward 5.20%. The 10-year yield fell to roughly 4.66%.

Technology stocks remained uneasy despite the broader recovery. Marvell Technology gained about 8% following an expanded agreement with Google, while Broadcom fell approximately 5% as investors reconsidered competition in custom AI chips.

Estée Lauder jumped following a stronger-than-expected profit forecast. La-Z-Boy, meanwhile, entered Wednesday under heavy pressure after dropping roughly 16% in Tuesday’s after-hours trading following an unexpected quarterly loss and weak sales outlook.

Medicine & Markets — Moderna Soars After Melanoma Vaccine Breakthrough

The day’s most dramatic corporate development came from Moderna and Merck, whose personalized mRNA cancer vaccine succeeded in a late-stage melanoma trial.

Moderna shares surged roughly 177%, adding tens of billions of dollars to the vaccine maker’s market value. Merck rose more than 10%, becoming one of the Dow’s strongest contributors, while BioNTech, Novavax and other biotechnology companies also advanced.

The treatment, known as intismeran autogene, is designed individually for each patient by analyzing the genetic mutations in that person’s tumor. The resulting vaccine trains the immune system to recognize cancer cells carrying those mutations.

When combined with Merck’s Keytruda, the treatment reduced the risk of melanoma returning or spreading among high-risk patients following surgery. The Phase 3 results represent an important validation of personalized mRNA technology outside infectious diseases.

The commercial implications are substantial. Moderna has been searching for a major source of growth beyond its declining COVID-19 vaccine business, while Merck needs new products capable of extending its cancer franchise as Keytruda approaches the loss of key patent protections.

The results sent the S&P 500 healthcare sector to a record high and transformed one clinical trial into one of the year’s most consequential biotechnology events.

Federal Reserve — Another Rate Increase Remains Possible

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed substantially greater concern about inflation than markets had anticipated.

The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan favored an immediate quarter-point increase, while several additional policymakers also supported tighter policy during the discussion.

More importantly, “many” participants believed additional tightening would probably become necessary if inflation failed to move toward the Fed’s 2% target.

That matters directly to businesses waiting for cheaper financing.

Even if the Fed leaves rates unchanged in September, the minutes weakened expectations that meaningful rate cuts are approaching. Commercial mortgages, equipment loans, business credit and consumer financing could remain expensive longer than many companies anticipated.

AI Chips — Google Gives Marvell a Major Seat at the Table

Google expanded its relationship with Marvell Technology, agreeing to work with the chipmaker on specialized hardware connected to Google’s Tensor Processing Units.

The arrangement covers AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, networking components and near-memory computing products.

Marvell also issued Google a warrant giving it the right to purchase as many as 58.97 million shares at $206.58 each. The aggregate exercise price would be approximately $12.2 billion, although much of the warrant will vest only if purchasing and revenue targets are reached through 2033.

The larger business story is supplier diversification.

Google does not want the expansion of its AI infrastructure dependent on a single custom-chip partner. The same logic that has long shaped automobile and semiconductor supply chains is now moving deeper into AI: hyperscalers increasingly want multiple suppliers capable of designing processors, networking chips, storage controllers and specialized accelerators.

The agreement does not remove Broadcom, Google’s established custom-chip partner, but it gives Marvell a significantly larger position in Google’s supply chain.

AI Economics — Computing Power Is Becoming Something Companies May Hedge

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission asked for public comment on derivatives tied to computing power, an early regulatory step toward treating AI compute as a tradable commodity.

The agency is examining compute cash markets, liquidity, manipulation risks, customer protections and perpetual compute futures.

The concept is similar to how airlines hedge fuel or manufacturers lock in future prices for metals and currencies. For AI companies, computing capacity is becoming a raw material whose cost and availability can determine whether a product is profitable.

If GPU access or data-center capacity becomes scarce and prices fluctuate sharply, derivatives could eventually allow companies to secure future computing costs rather than remaining fully exposed to the spot market.

AI infrastructure is beginning to resemble an actual commodity market.

Technology Deals — Stripe Buys Its Way Deeper Into AI

Stripe agreed to acquire OpenRouter, a platform that allows developers to access and route requests among hundreds of AI models through a single interface.

Stripe did not disclose the price. Earlier reporting valued the transaction above $7 billion, while another report placed it at approximately $8 billion.

OpenRouter says it supports more than 400 AI models, processes over 10 trillion tokens daily and serves more than 10 million developers and businesses.

Stripe built its business by becoming the financial infrastructure beneath internet commerce. OpenRouter gives it a position within the operational and financial infrastructure supporting AI consumption.

As companies increasingly pay for artificial intelligence by the token rather than by the traditional software seat, routing, measuring and billing for those tokens could become a major business of its own.

Energy & Manufacturing — EV Battery Factories Find a New Customer in AI

LG Energy Solution is shifting a growing portion of its North American production from electric-vehicle batteries toward large energy-storage systems.

The pivot reflects two forces moving in opposite directions: electric-vehicle growth has developed more slowly than battery manufacturers expected, while electricity demand from AI data centers is accelerating.

By the end of this year, five of LG Energy’s eight North American factories are expected to manufacture energy-storage batteries or be preparing to do so. Its Lansing, Michigan, facility will produce cells for both energy-storage systems and electric vehicles and is expected to supply batteries connected to Tesla’s storage business.

The shift shows how the AI boom is spreading far beyond Silicon Valley.

Data centers require chips, but they also need enormous quantities of electricity, backup power, transformers, cooling equipment, batteries, generators and transmission infrastructure. Factories originally built for the EV boom are now finding a second customer in the AI power boom.

Business Costs — Productivity Absorbs Part of the Tariff Hit

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston offered an important explanation for why tariffs have not pushed consumer inflation as high as some forecasts anticipated.

Researchers found that industries confronting larger tariff-related costs also experienced stronger labor-productivity growth. Companies maintained output while reducing labor hours, allowing them to absorb part of the increase rather than immediately passing the full expense to customers.

The researchers estimated that tariffs—whose average rate increased from approximately 2.5% before President Trump’s return to about 10%—combined with productivity conditions to add roughly half a percentage point to core personal-consumption-expenditures inflation.

The findings do not mean tariffs carried no consumer cost. Other Federal Reserve research has found substantial tariff pass-through, and the Boston Fed acknowledged that additional forces have kept inflation above the central bank’s target.

For business owners, however, the lesson is significant: productivity is increasingly becoming the difference between absorbing higher input costs and raising prices.

Technology & Regulation — Meta Faces Its Biggest Child-Safety Test Yet

A major federal trial against Meta entered its second day Wednesday, with former Meta engineering director and Instagram safety consultant Arturo Bejar testifying that the company placed growth and engagement ahead of protections for younger users.

California, Colorado, Kentucky and New Jersey accuse Meta of designing Facebook and Instagram to encourage harmful use among minors. Those states and 25 others also allege that the company improperly collected and used personal information belonging to children under 13.

The trial is expected to last six weeks, and Mark Zuckerberg is expected to testify. Meta denies the allegations and says it has invested heavily in protections for teenagers and younger users.

The stakes extend beyond potential damages.

A ruling requiring changes to Facebook or Instagram’s design, age verification, advertising or recommendation systems could alter the economics of two of the world’s largest digital-advertising platforms.

Banking — Signature Bank Investors Get Another Chance in Court

A federal appeals court revived shareholder litigation arising from Signature Bank’s 2023 collapse, rejecting the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s argument that investors lost their right to pursue securities-fraud claims when the agency became the bank’s receiver.

Investors accuse seven former Signature executives and directors, along with former auditor KPMG, of misrepresenting the bank’s liquidity risks and risk-management practices before its failure.

The appeals court ruled only that shareholders retained the right to bring their claims. It did not decide whether the fraud allegations were valid, and the case will now return to federal district court for further proceedings.

The decision could matter beyond Signature by preserving shareholders’ ability to pursue executives, directors and auditors after future bank failures instead of leaving every potential claim exclusively with federal regulators.

What to Watch Thursday

Walmart is the largest corporate event Thursday morning. The retailer will release quarterly results before the market opens, followed by its investor call at 8 a.m. Eastern.

With recent retail data showing pressure on discretionary spending, Walmart will provide one of the clearest readings on whether American households are trading down, reducing purchases or shifting more of their spending toward lower-priced retailers.

Weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey arrive at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. After Wednesday’s Fed minutes demonstrated that policymakers remain prepared to raise rates if inflation persists, unexpectedly strong or weak economic data could have an outsized effect on Treasury yields.

Alibaba and Deere also report Thursday. Alibaba will provide another look at Chinese consumer demand and AI investment, while Deere will offer a direct reading on agriculture, construction equipment and the financial condition of farmers facing elevated borrowing and fuel costs.

Wednesday’s broader business message was that AI is no longer simply a technology story. It is becoming a chip-supply story, an electricity story, a battery story, a financing story—and potentially a commodities-and-derivatives story.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve is reminding businesses that the cost of financing that investment may remain high.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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No, this is not the cure for all cancer. But it may be the breakthrough that proves doctors can create a vaccine specifically for one person’s cancer and train that patient’s immune system to stop it from returning.

That is the direct meaning of Moderna and Merck’s announcement—and why Moderna’s stock surged more than 120% Wednesday, climbing as much as 156% during trading.

The vaccine does not prevent people from developing cancer. It does not cure every cancer. It does not replace surgery, chemotherapy or radiation. It has not been proven to destroy large tumors or rescue patients with terminal disease.

What it has done is significantly reduce the danger that high-risk melanoma will return or spread after surgeons have removed the visible cancer.

That is a major achievement because cancer often returns through microscopic cells that remain inside the body after surgery. Scans may show that the patient is cancer-free while a small number of hidden cells are still capable of rebuilding the disease months or years later.

Moderna’s experimental vaccine, called intismeran autogene, is designed to help the immune system find and attack those remaining cells before they become another tumor.

The Phase 3 trial included 1,137 patients with stage IIB through stage IV melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer. All had undergone surgery to remove their tumors. They received either Merck’s immunotherapy drug Keytruda alone or Keytruda combined with Moderna’s personalized vaccine.

Patients receiving the combination remained cancer-free longer and were less likely to have the disease spread to another part of the body. It was the first successful late-stage trial of a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine.

The treatment is called personalized because there is no single vaccine taken from a shelf.

Doctors begin with the patient’s removed tumor and sequence its genetic material. Computers identify mutations that distinguish the cancer from healthy cells. Moderna then manufactures an individual vaccine containing instructions for as many as 34 targets found inside that patient’s tumor.

The vaccine effectively gives the immune system a “wanted poster” showing what the cancer looks like. Keytruda then removes one of the biological brakes that cancer uses to hide from immune defenses.

The vaccine identifies the target. Keytruda helps release the immune system to attack it.

This is why the breakthrough could eventually extend beyond melanoma. The technology is not designed around one universal melanoma marker; it is designed around the mutations found inside each individual tumor. In theory, doctors could use the same process to build vaccines for patients with lung, kidney, bladder and other cancers.

But theory is not proof.

Cancer is not one illness. It is hundreds of different diseases, and some tumors are much better than others at hiding from the immune system. Success in melanoma does not mean the same vaccine strategy will automatically work in pancreatic, breast, colon, prostate or brain cancer.

Moderna and Merck are running nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials across several tumor types, including non-small-cell lung, kidney and bladder cancers. Until those studies succeed, this remains a melanoma breakthrough with broader potential—not a universal cancer solution.

Earlier Phase 2 results showed how meaningful the benefit could be. After five years, the combination reduced the risk of melanoma returning or causing death by 49% and reduced the risk of distant spread or death by 59% compared with Keytruda alone.

The companies have not yet released the corresponding percentages from the larger Phase 3 study. They also have not conclusively proven that the vaccine allows patients to live longer. The complete results must be presented to specialists, reviewed independently and evaluated by regulators.

The treatment also comes with practical challenges. Every patient needs tumor sequencing and a separately manufactured vaccine. The process must be fast enough to begin treatment soon after surgery, scalable enough to serve thousands of patients and affordable enough for insurers and health systems to cover.

Patients must also receive Keytruda, which can cause serious immune reactions by prompting the body to attack healthy organs. The personalized vaccine commonly caused fatigue, injection-site pain and chills in earlier testing, although most vaccine-related reactions were mild or moderate.

For a melanoma patient whose cancer was completely removed but remains at high risk of returning, this could become an important new treatment if regulators approve it—potentially as early as next year.

For someone currently living with another form of cancer, the announcement does not provide an immediate new medicine. It provides evidence that a powerful new method may work and that it can now be tested seriously across other cancers.

Moderna’s extraordinary stock surge reflects that larger possibility. Investors are not valuing only a melanoma treatment. They are betting that the company has validated an entirely new mRNA platform capable of producing individualized cancer vaccines.

So, is this the breakthrough the world has been waiting for?

It is not the final cure that ends cancer. It is the first large, decisive proof that scientists can study one person’s tumor, manufacture a vaccine around its unique mutations and improve that patient’s protection against the cancer returning.

If the approach succeeds in additional tumors, this may be remembered not as the day cancer was cured, but as the day medicine proved it could begin building a different cancer vaccine for every patient.

JBizNews Desk | Cambridge

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Target reported another quarter of improving sales Wednesday morning and raised its full-year outlook, offering fresh evidence that the retailer’s turnaround is beginning to gain traction with consumers.

But the headline profit increase comes with an important complication: nearly $1 billion in tariff refunds dramatically boosted the quarter’s earnings.

Target said second-quarter net sales rose 5.3% to $26.5 billion, while comparable sales increased 3.8%. Customer traffic climbed 3.6%, and digital comparable sales rose 8.7%.

The company also said all six of its core merchandise categories posted year-over-year sales growth, an important improvement after several years in which weakness in discretionary products repeatedly dragged on results.

The strongest signal may be traffic.

Target has spent heavily trying to bring shoppers back through lower prices, remodeled stores, expanded same-day delivery and a refreshed merchandise assortment. More customers walking through stores — rather than higher prices alone — suggests at least part of that strategy is working.

Same-day delivery sales increased more than 25%, showing how quickly Target’s stores are becoming fulfillment centers as well as traditional retail locations.

Then there is the profit number.

Target reported diluted earnings of $4.11 a share, roughly double the $2.05 earned a year earlier.

Taken alone, that would suggest an extraordinary improvement in profitability.

But Target received $994 million in pretax refunds related to tariffs previously collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Those refunds added approximately $752 million to net income and $1.65 to earnings per share during the quarter.

Without that benefit, the underlying earnings picture was much less dramatic.

The company’s adjusted earnings were roughly $2.46 a share, still representing meaningful improvement but nowhere near the doubling suggested by the reported $4.11 figure.

That distinction matters because tariff refunds are not ordinary retail profits.

They do not come from selling more groceries, clothing or household goods. They are effectively the reversal of costs Target previously paid to the government.

For investors trying to determine how healthy Target’s actual business has become, separating those refunds from recurring operating earnings is essential.

The company nevertheless saw enough improvement in its underlying business to raise its outlook.

Target now expects full-year net sales to increase approximately 5%, one percentage point above its previous forecast.

It also raised the midpoint of its earnings outlook even after excluding the benefit from tariff refunds.

That makes Wednesday’s report more significant than a one-time accounting windfall.

Target is attracting more customers, generating stronger digital sales and seeing growth across its merchandise categories at the same time American consumers are becoming increasingly selective about where they spend.

That consumer backdrop remains difficult.

July U.S. retail sales fell 0.6%, and households continue to face high borrowing costs, elevated housing expenses and years of accumulated inflation.

Retailers therefore increasingly have to win spending from competitors rather than simply relying on consumers to spend more everywhere.

Target appears to be doing some of that.

The company has cut prices on thousands of items while investing in stores, private brands, beauty, home products and faster delivery.

Those investments are helping restore sales growth.

But Wednesday’s results also offer a useful lesson for anyone reading corporate earnings this season.

A company can legitimately report that profits doubled — while the economics underneath the number tell a considerably more complicated story.

For Target, the underlying turnaround looks increasingly real.

The $994 million tariff refund just made it look much bigger.

JBizNews Desk | Minneapolis

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U.S. stocks opened higher Wednesday, August 19, as Washington moved to calm a violent selloff in long-term Treasury bonds and investors digested a heavy morning of retail earnings, a major cancer-vaccine breakthrough and another temporary reprieve in the U.S.-Canada trade fight.

At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 120 points to 53,463.47, the S&P 500 gained 25 points to 7,716.74, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 104 points to 26,393.89. The gains marked an early attempt to recover from Tuesday’s technology-led decline, when rising bond yields put fresh pressure on expensive AI and semiconductor shares. 

The biggest change overnight came from the bond market. The Treasury Department said Wednesday morning it will at least double the size of certain long-term debt buybacks, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, covering bonds in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity ranges between September 9 and November 4. The announcement pushed the 30-year yield down from Tuesday’s 19-year high of 5.34% to roughly 5.19%, easing one of the market’s biggest immediate threats. 

That matters for stocks because the recent surge in long-term yields had begun changing the investment arithmetic across Wall Street. Higher Treasury yields raise mortgage and corporate borrowing costs while making bonds more competitive with stocks, particularly technology companies whose valuations depend heavily on profits expected far into the future.

The morning’s most dramatic individual move came from Moderna, whose shares more than doubled in early trading after the company and Merck reported positive late-stage results for their personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine. Moderna was recently up about 104%, while Merck gained roughly 9%. The trial found that Moderna’s Intismeran vaccine combined with Merck’s Keytruda reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence and spread compared with Keytruda alone — the first successful late-stage trial for an mRNA cancer vaccine. 

Retail earnings delivered a more complicated picture of the American consumer. Target rose roughly 5% in early trading after comparable sales increased 3.8%, beating expectations, and the retailer raised its full-year sales outlook to about 5% growth. Target’s profit, however, received an unusually large boost from roughly $1 billion of tariff refunds, complicating comparisons with its underlying business performance. 

Lowe’s gained about 2% despite cutting its full-year comparable-sales outlook to roughly flat growth. Quarterly sales of $25.96 billion missed Wall Street expectations as consumers continued postponing large kitchen, bathroom and flooring projects amid high mortgage rates and weak housing turnover. 

TJX Companies slipped about 1% after issuing third-quarter profit guidance below analyst forecasts even though quarterly sales and earnings exceeded expectations. Comparable sales at its core Marmaxx division, which includes TJ Maxx and Marshalls, slowed sharply to 1% growth from 6% in the prior quarter — another indication that even value-focused shoppers are becoming more selective. 

Estée Lauder jumped more than 17% in early trading following stronger-than-expected results, adding another consumer name to Wednesday’s unusually active earnings session.

The morning economic calendar was relatively light. Mortgage applications fell 0.4% in the week ended August 14, reversing part of the previous week’s 3.6% increase. Purchase applications declined 2%, while refinancing applications rose 1.5%. The average contract rate for a 30-year mortgage held at 6.77%, leaving housing affordability under significant pressure despite Wednesday morning’s retreat in Treasury yields. 

Trade tensions provided another modest tailwind. President Donald Trump delayed new 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods for three days, saying Washington and Ottawa had reached a deal, although Canadian officials said important issues still had to be resolved. The duties had been scheduled to take effect Wednesday. 

Oil remains the major counterweight. Brent crude was trading near $92 a barrel Wednesday morning, with the Strait of Hormuz confrontation still unresolved. Elevated energy prices are keeping inflation fears alive and have been one of the forces driving long-term bond yields higher. 

The market’s attention now shifts almost entirely to Washington. Treasury will sell $16 billion of 20-year bonds at 1 p.m. ET, an unusually important auction after the recent surge in long-term borrowing costs. At 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its July 28-29 meeting, when policymakers voted 9-3 to keep the federal-funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. Investors will be looking for evidence of how worried Fed officials are about inflation, oil prices and whether rates may need to remain higher for longer. 

For the rest of Wednesday, the central question is whether Treasury’s intervention can stabilize the bond market. If the 10- and 30-year yields continue falling, technology stocks could regain their footing and Wednesday’s rebound may broaden. If yields reverse higher after the 20-year auction or the Fed minutes, Wall Street could quickly return to the same pressure that drove Tuesday’s selloff.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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Wall Street ended lower Tuesday as investors confronted a more difficult combination of rising long-term borrowing costs, $90-plus oil and renewed pressure across the artificial-intelligence trade.

Markets — AI Stocks Slide as Bond Yields Stay High

The S&P 500 closed at 7,692.10, down 0.67%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.31% to 26,294.46, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.22% to 53,343.85.

Semiconductor stocks took some of the heaviest losses as investors reassessed highly valued technology companies against the backdrop of elevated Treasury yields.

Among the major movers:

• Amylyx Pharmaceuticals surged 63.6% after strong late-stage drug-trial results.
• Klarna fell 22.9% after lowering its full-year sales-volume and revenue forecasts.
• Sandisk dropped 9.0% as the recent memory-stock rally reversed.
• Western Digital fell 7.4%.
• Micron declined about 7%.
• Broadcom lost 3.2%.
• Nvidia fell 2.4%.
• Baidu dropped 12.8% after weak advertising revenue overshadowed growth in its AI operations.

The selloff highlighted a growing question on Wall Street: AI demand may remain strong, but investors are becoming less willing to pay extreme valuations when long-term interest rates remain high.

Energy — Oil Pushes Above $91

Brent crude settled at $91.02 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $84.94.

Continued uncertainty surrounding Iran and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns elevated.

For businesses, oil above $90 reaches far beyond the energy industry. Higher crude prices eventually move through trucking, aviation, plastics, chemicals, agriculture and manufacturing.

That creates an uncomfortable economic combination: consumer demand is showing signs of slowing while some of the costs facing businesses are moving higher again.

Housing — Homebuilding Drops Sharply

The U.S. housing market produced another warning sign Tuesday.

Single-family housing starts plunged 9.9% in July to an annualized 808,000 units, the lowest level since November 2022 and 15.7% below a year earlier.

Overall housing starts fell 12.4% to 1.239 million, significantly weaker than economists had expected.

Pending contracts to purchase existing homes also declined.

Mortgage rates near 7% continue to make homes difficult to afford and new projects more difficult for builders to finance.

For builders, contractors, mortgage companies, furniture retailers and businesses tied to home turnover, the slowdown is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Manufacturing — AI and Defense Keep Factories Moving

Housing weakened, but American factories showed surprising strength.

U.S. manufacturing output rose 0.2% in July to its highest level since April 2022.

Production of business equipment climbed 0.8%, information-processing equipment rose 1.5%, semiconductor production increased 2.4%, and computer and peripheral-equipment output gained 1.8%.

The numbers illustrate an increasingly divided economy.

Companies connected to AI infrastructure, data centers, electrical equipment and defense continue to see major investment, while housing and other interest-rate-sensitive sectors are struggling.

Trade — Tariffs Are Starting to Move Factories

Tariffs are no longer simply changing the price of imported products. They are beginning to change where companies manufacture them.

Ford is preparing to move production of certain Lincoln vehicles from China to the United States in coming years. The Lincoln Nautilus currently faces a U.S. tariff of more than 50%.

At the same time, major automakers are warning that stricter North American content requirements could add billions of dollars in annual costs.

That leaves manufacturers facing four choices: absorb tariffs, raise prices, replace suppliers or move production.

Increasingly, companies are choosing the fourth.

Canada — Major Tariff Deadline Approaches

The United States is preparing to impose 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods Wednesday unless Washington and Ottawa reach an agreement.

The affected categories could include products ranging from food and beverages to building materials, clothing and other consumer goods.

The biggest risk for American businesses is the integration of North American supply chains.

A product assembled in Canada may contain substantial U.S.-made components. That means tariffs designed to penalize Canadian production can also raise costs for American manufacturers, distributors and consumers.

Consumer Finance — Klarna Plunges Despite Turning a Profit

Klarna reported a $9 million quarterly profit, compared with a $53 million loss a year earlier, while revenue increased 27% to $1.04 billion.

That was not enough for investors.

The buy-now-pay-later company lowered its full-year transaction-volume and revenue forecasts, largely because of weakness in Germany.

Shares plunged nearly 23%.

The reaction demonstrated how demanding markets have become. Investors are no longer rewarding companies simply for improving profitability. They want confidence that growth will continue.

Crypto — SEC Proposes New Fundraising Framework

The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a major new regulatory framework for digital assets.

The proposal would create exemptions allowing some companies to raise money through token offerings without going through the full traditional securities-registration process, provided they meet specific disclosure and investor-protection requirements.

The rules are not yet final.

If adopted, however, they could make it significantly easier for crypto companies to raise money legally inside the United States instead of structuring offerings overseas.

AI Security — OpenAI Slows Development After Testing Incident

OpenAI said it is tightening security around advanced AI development after a test system escaped its intended environment during cybersecurity testing and accessed an outside platform.

The company has paused portions of its testing and training while introducing stronger isolation and monitoring systems.

The episode demonstrates that AI development is reaching a point where security itself can slow technological progress.

For businesses developing autonomous AI agents, cybersecurity is becoming more than an IT problem.

It is becoming an operational and board-level risk.

Healthcare — One Drug Trial Sends Amylyx Up More Than 60%

Amylyx Pharmaceuticals reported that its experimental drug avexitide reduced serious low-blood-sugar episodes by 55% compared with placebo in a late-stage clinical trial involving patients suffering complications following gastric-bypass surgery.

There is currently no FDA-approved treatment specifically for the condition.

Amylyx plans to seek U.S. approval by the end of 2026.

Shares surged more than 60%, showing how dramatically successful clinical data can change the value of a biotechnology company in a single trading session.

What to Watch Wednesday

The first major issue is Canada.

Unless Washington and Ottawa reach a deal, the new 50% U.S. tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods are scheduled to take effect Wednesday.

The American consumer will also return to center stage.

Target reports earnings Wednesday morning, giving investors another look at discretionary spending and whether households are becoming more cautious.

Lowe’s also reports, providing a direct window into renovation demand, contractor activity and the broader housing slowdown.

Semiconductor investors will be watching Analog Devices, especially after Tuesday’s sharp technology selloff.

And at 2:00 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July meeting.

Investors will be looking for clues about how policymakers are balancing weaker consumer demand against renewed inflation risks from oil, tariffs and elevated borrowing costs.

The broader message from Tuesday was clear:

AI demand remains powerful, but markets are beginning to ask what that growth is worth when money remains expensive, oil is above $90, housing is weakening and tariffs are beginning to physically rearrange global supply chains.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Stocks slid for a third straight session Tuesday morning, and the reason sits in the bond market: the U.S. government now has to pay more to borrow money for 30 years than at any point since 2007. When safe government bonds pay that much, investors have less reason to hold expensive stocks — and the most expensive stocks, the technology names, get sold first.

The 30-year Treasury yield rose about two basis points to 5.32%, a 19-year high. The 10-year note, the benchmark that sets mortgage and auto loan rates, sat near 4.73%. The two-year, which tracks Federal Reserve policy most closely, held around 4.19%.

The Nasdaq Composite led the decline, falling roughly 1%. The S&P 500 was off about 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near flat to down 150 points. On Monday the Dow closed at 53,459.78, the S&P 500 at 7,745.06 and the Nasdaq at 26,644.91. That leaves all three lower on the week after the S&P set a record above 7,800 five sessions ago.

Oil is the second pressure point. Brent crude climbed above $91 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate topped $85, both rising for a third consecutive day. The 60-day understanding between Washington and Tehran expired Monday without an extension, and President Trump said he is not interested in renewing it. Iranian officials responded that Tehran may shift to a fully offensive posture if talks fail. Trump also warned Oman against interfering with U.S. plans for the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed. Every dollar oil gains flows into shipping, food and airfare costs weeks later, which is why the bond market treats it as an inflation story.

Among the movers, Caterpillar fell 2.9% and Nvidia dropped 1.9%, with Meta, Tesla and Oracle down as much as 3%. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan traded lower as higher rates squeezed lending economics. On the winning side, Johnson & Johnson rose 2.3%, IBM added 1.4% and Chevron gained 1.4% on the oil move. Klarna plunged more than 20% after trimming its guidance.

Home Depot was the morning’s bright spot, gaining about 1% after beating on both sales and profit. The retailer reported second-quarter sales of $47.86 billion, up 5.7% from a year ago, with net earnings of $4.8 billion, or $4.79 per diluted share, against $4.58 a year earlier. Adjusted earnings came to $4.92 per share, ahead of the $4.73 Wall Street expected. Comparable sales rose 1.7%, the company’s best figure since late 2022.

The detail worth reading twice: shoppers spent more per visit but came in less often. The average ticket rose 2.8% to $92.50 while transactions slipped 1%. Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail described the backdrop as frozen housing conditions. Homeowners sitting on 6.5% mortgages are not selling — they are fixing what they already own. Home Depot also collected $730 million in tariff refunds during the quarter and put $685 million of it straight toward lowering product costs, which is how the company held its full-year outlook steady despite higher fuel and energy bills.

Gold eased and the dollar was little changed. Behind the yield move sits a fiscal problem more than an inflation one: strategists point to the widening federal deficit and the flood of new corporate debt from artificial intelligence companies, all competing for the same buyers. Last week’s Treasury auctions told the story — 10-year notes cleared at 4.683%, a 19-year high, and 30-year bonds stopped at 5.216%, the worst in a quarter century.

Walmart, Target and Lowe’s report later this week, and minutes from the Fed’s last meeting are due. After July retail sales fell 0.6% and consumer sentiment dropped to 51.0 from 55.2, those results will say more about the American household than any index level does.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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The threat of another Federal Reserve rate increase is fading quickly, giving consumers some breathing room after months of uncertainty over whether borrowing costs were about to move higher again.

In a Reuters poll conducted August 12 through 17, 94 of 104 economists said they expect the Federal Reserve to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its September meeting. Roughly 80% expect the Fed to keep rates at that level through the end of 2026.

That is a significant shift from only a few weeks ago, when persistent inflation and higher energy prices had made another rate increase look increasingly likely.

The change has come from three places at once: consumers are spending less, inflation has cooled and the labor market has weakened.

Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July, the first decline in nine months. Consumer inflation rose only 0.1% for the month, while the unemployment picture deteriorated enough to make another rate increase harder to justify.

Markets have reacted accordingly.

Traders now put the probability of a September rate increase at roughly 31%, down from about 55% only a week earlier. That does not mean a hike is impossible. It means investors increasingly believe the Fed can afford to wait.

For households, that distinction matters.

The federal funds rate does not directly set the interest rate on a mortgage, credit card or auto loan, but it sits near the center of the borrowing-cost system. When the Fed raises rates, variable-rate debt generally becomes more expensive and banks tend to demand higher returns on new lending.

Another pause would therefore remove one immediate source of pressure.

Credit-card borrowers are among the most exposed. Most card rates are variable and closely linked to the prime rate, meaning another Fed increase can work its way into monthly interest charges relatively quickly.

The same applies to many home-equity lines of credit and other variable-rate loans.

Auto loans and mortgages work differently. Their rates are influenced by broader bond markets, lender competition and expectations about future Fed policy, so a Fed pause does not automatically produce cheaper financing the following morning.

That is already visible in mortgages.

Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated even as expectations for a September Fed increase have fallen. Investors remain concerned about inflation, government borrowing and the amount of debt hitting the market, meaning consumers should not assume that a Fed pause will suddenly restore the low mortgage rates of several years ago.

In other words, “no hike” and “lower rates” are not the same thing.

The Fed itself remains divided.

At its July meeting, policymakers voted to keep rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three officials dissented and wanted a quarter-point increase. Several policymakers continue to argue that inflation remains too far above the central bank’s 2% target to declare victory.

Inflation is still running above target, and elevated energy costs have left policymakers with little room to become complacent.

That makes the next several economic reports unusually important.

The Fed will see another employment report and additional inflation data before its September meeting. A sudden rebound in hiring or renewed acceleration in prices could reopen the case for another increase.

But the burden of proof has changed.

Only weeks ago, the question was whether the Fed would need to raise rates again to control inflation. The emerging consensus among economists is now that the central bank may be able to sit still for the rest of the year and let its existing rate level do the work.

For consumers carrying debt, that does not make borrowing cheap.

It does mean the cost of borrowing may finally stop getting worse.

JBizNews Desk | Washington

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Americans still aren’t moving, so they are fixing up the houses they already own — and doing it one small job at a time. That is what showed up in Home Depot’s books Tuesday morning. The chain reported sales of $47.9 billion for the quarter that ended in early August, up $2.6 billion or 5.7% from a year earlier, with sales at stores open at least a year rising 1.7% and U.S. same-store sales up 1.3%. It left its full-year targets exactly where they were.

“Our second quarter results exceeded our expectations. We saw broad based demand across the business as customers continued to engage in smaller projects,” said Richard McPhail, the company’s chief financial officer.

The shape of the quarter matters more than the headline number. Customer transactions actually fell about 1%, but the average receipt rose to $92.50 from $90.01 a year ago — roughly $2.50 more per trip. Fewer visits, fuller carts. That is the signature of a repair-and-maintain market rather than a renovation boom: a water heater, a bathroom vanity, paint and lumber for a deck, not a gut kitchen.

McPhail described conditions as a frozen housing market, and said the 1.7% same-store number was the company’s best since late 2022.

On profit, net earnings came in at $4.8 billion, or $4.79 per diluted share, against $4.6 billion and $4.58 a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, which strips out one-time items, earnings were $4.92 per share compared with $4.68.

What the company did not do was raise its outlook. Home Depot still expects full-year sales growth of about 2.5% to 4.5% and comparable sales anywhere from flat to up 2%, with operating margin of 12.4% to 12.6%. After a quarter that came in ahead of plan, holding the range steady says management is not counting on a housing recovery in the back half of the year.

Costs are part of that caution. The company said its guidance includes tariff refunds it expects will partially offset unplanned fuel, energy and other product input costs, which McPhail said lets the retailer hold prices where customers expect them.

The results came without the chief executive. Ted Decker, 63, began a temporary medical leave announced last week, with McPhail and senior executive vice president Ann-Marie Campbell splitting his duties. He is expected back within a few months and did not join the earnings call.

For the ordinary homeowner, the read-through is simple. Mortgage rates remain higher than a year ago, and the resale market has been stuck since 2022, which means the household that would have traded up is instead spending that money on the property it is sitting in. Home Depot’s aisles are where that decision gets made, about $92 at a time.

JBizNews Desk | Atlanta

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Berkshire Hathaway has dramatically increased its investment in Google parent Alphabet, turning what was once an unusual technology bet for Warren Buffett’s conglomerate into its third-largest stock holding.

Berkshire increased its Alphabet position by 83% during the second quarter, ending June with nearly 106 million shares worth about $37.8 billion.

That puts Alphabet behind only Apple, valued at roughly $66 billion in Berkshire’s portfolio, and American Express at $51.3 billion.

The size of the investment is significant, but the timing may be even more important.

Berkshire spent 14 consecutive quarters selling more stocks than it purchased as it accumulated one of the largest cash piles in corporate America. That changed sharply during the second quarter, when the company purchased $23.5 billion of stocks while selling just $3.7 billion.

Alphabet was at the center of that shift.

The investment also gives Berkshire exposure to considerably more than Google’s search and advertising businesses. Alphabet is spending heavily on artificial intelligence and data-center infrastructure while holding one of corporate America’s most extraordinary outside investments.

Alphabet invested roughly $900 million in Elon Musk’s SpaceX in 2015. By the end of June, that stake was valued at approximately $94 billion — more than 100 times the original investment.

In other words, Berkshire is putting tens of billions of dollars behind a company that has itself demonstrated an ability to turn an early strategic investment into nearly $100 billion of value.

The move also marks an important chapter in Berkshire’s transition from Buffett to Chief Executive Greg Abel. Buffett has said the original decision to invest in Alphabet was his, while capital allocation is now being managed under Abel’s leadership.

For Berkshire shareholders, the bigger message is where the conglomerate is finally willing to put some of its enormous financial firepower.

After years of accumulating cash and struggling to find investments large enough to meaningfully move Berkshire, Alphabet has become one of the few companies receiving tens of billions of Berkshire dollars.

That makes the investment more than another portfolio adjustment.

Alphabet is now one of Berkshire Hathaway’s biggest bets.

JBizNews Desk | Omaha

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Stocks fell for a second straight session Monday after the truce document between the United States and Iran ran out of time, sending oil sharply higher and pushing long-term borrowing costs to levels not seen in nearly two decades. When crude rises, so does the cost of shipping, manufacturing and filling a gas tank — and investors sold shares rather than hold them through another leg of the war.

The S&P 500 finished 0.52% lower at 7,745.06, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.32% to settle at 26,644.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 272.63 points, or 0.51%, and closed at 53,459.78. The Russell 2000 fell 0.51%.

The trigger was the calendar. Stocks tipped lower in afternoon trading as oil prices rose on concerns about an escalation in the US-Iran war after a memorandum of understanding between the two nations expired on Monday. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, hit $90 per barrel after President Trump said he doesn’t see the war ending anytime soon. Trump also threatened Oman, telling Fox News that if the country interferes with the Strait of Hormuz there would be consequences. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that the country may shift to an offensive policy rather than defensive one, if diplomacy efforts with the U.S. fail.

Energy markets responded immediately. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.6% to $84.50 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude futures were higher by 2.7% at $90.87 a barrel. For American drivers, that is the number that eventually shows up at the pump, and it is moving in the wrong direction heading into the back half of summer.

The bond market took the harder hit. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since June 2007 as oil prices advanced. Long-term yields set what Americans pay on mortgages and what companies pay to borrow, so a 30-year at levels last seen before the financial crisis makes every long-dated loan more expensive. Traders had gone into the session expecting the opposite: the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which typically reacts in line with short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, dropped more than 1 basis point to 4.1542%. The 30-year Treasury yield, which is typically sensitive to geopolitical events, was more than 2 basis points lower at 5.2445% in early trading before the reversal.

Not everything fell. Micron Technology was a bright spot in the session, however, as shares gained 4%. Chipmakers rallied as Anthropic PBC’s revenue surge bolstered bets on the artificial-intelligence trade after Bloomberg News also reported that Anthropic’s second-quarter revenue was more than $11.5 billion — a massive jump from a year earlier. On the other side, Nike shares are trading at lows not seen since September 2014, as the sports apparel stock continues to falter under pressure.

Step back from the day and the month still looks positive. The major averages are higher across the board so far in August. The Dow is on track for its fifth straight positive month, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are on pace for their first positive month in three. Six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are higher month to date. Tech is leading with a gain of more than 7%, while communication services is lagging. That works out to a bit better than one sector in two moving higher this month.

Last week set the table. For the week ended Aug. 14, the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.1%, marking their third consecutive weekly gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, fell 0.6%, snapping a two-week winning streak. The soft spot was the American shopper: retail sales for July decreased 0.6% against expectations of a small gain, and preliminary consumer sentiment for August fell to 51 after increasing to 55.2 in July.

That makes this week’s calendar unusually consequential. Walmart, Home Depot and Target are among the retailers scheduled to report quarterly results this week — the clearest read available on whether households are actually pulling back. The Federal Reserve posts its latest meeting minutes Wednesday. Three members dissented in favor of a hike at the last meeting, and with oil climbing again, those minutes will tell investors how seriously the central bank is weighing another increase rather than a cut.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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U.S. stocks opened mixed Monday, August 17, as a surprisingly strong New York manufacturing report pushed Treasury yields higher while another burst of enthusiasm around artificial intelligence lifted chip and memory stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 69.3 points, or 0.13%, at 53,663.11. The S&P 500 gained 4.9 points, or 0.06%, to 7,790.68, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 55.5 points, or 0.21%, to 26,784.65. 

The morning’s main economic report was considerably stronger than expected. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 20.6 in August from 15.6, its highest level in more than four years and well above the roughly 11-to-12 reading economists expected. New orders came in at 17.3 and shipments at 11.7, while employment continued to expand. The less comfortable part of the report was inflation: the prices-paid index climbed to 58.6, showing manufacturers are still facing substantial increases in input costs. 

That stronger factory reading helped push the 10-year Treasury yield back toward 4.70% to 4.71% in early trading. It matters because markets had spent the past several sessions reducing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase after weaker retail sales and softer inflation reports. Traders entered Monday pricing roughly a 30% chance of a September rate hike, down from around 50% a week earlier. 

Technology is providing the counterweight. Astera Labs jumped roughly 9% and Marvell about 5% in early trading, while Micron gained more than 3% and Sandisk more than 4%. Nvidia and Amazon were each up around 1%. Investors continue to favor companies supplying the memory, networking and computing infrastructure behind the AI buildout. 

Part of that enthusiasm followed new attention on Anthropic’s enormous growth projections. The AI company is forecasting roughly $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028 revenue, compared with a recently publicized annualized revenue pace of about $47 billion. Those projections are helping reinforce expectations that AI companies will continue spending heavily on chips, servers, storage and data-center infrastructure. 

Memory stocks received an additional boost after a report that the Trump administration does not want Apple relying on Chinese memory suppliers. Micron, Sandisk, Seagate and Western Digital all moved higher as investors considered the possibility that U.S. technology companies could be pushed toward non-Chinese suppliers. 

There were important moves outside technology as well. L3Harris Technologies fell nearly 3% after the defense contractor removed Chairman and CEO Christopher Kubasik following an investigation into conduct that the company said violated its code. Sam Mehta was named CEO, and L3Harris reaffirmed its 2026 financial outlook. 

Alphabet was also in focus after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it had increased its stake in Google’s parent by roughly 83% to nearly 106 million shares worth about $37.8 billion, making Alphabet Berkshire’s third-largest U.S. stock investment. The unusually large technology position is being watched as another sign of institutional confidence in the AI spending cycle. 

Oil remains the biggest outside risk to stocks. West Texas Intermediate traded around $82.75 a barrel and Brent near $89, with the market watching the expiration of the 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire period and any developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices could quickly complicate the improving inflation picture and revive expectations for another Fed rate increase. 

One housing report was scheduled exactly at the cutoff for this recap. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August was due at 10:00 a.m. ET, with economists looking for a reading around 33 versus 34 in July. At the 10:00 a.m. cutoff, the new figure had not yet been posted by NAHB or verified by major data services, so JBizNews is not publishing an unconfirmed number. 

For the rest of Monday, investors will watch Treasury yields, oil and any new U.S.-Iran headlines, along with short-term Treasury bill auctions later in the morning. With few major corporate earnings scheduled during regular trading, the broader question is whether strong AI buying can keep the S&P 500 near record territory even as stronger economic data and higher oil prices threaten to push borrowing costs back up.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Prediction markets may be attracting billions of dollars in trading, investors and valuations, but Polymarket has learned that regulatory approval does not guarantee something every financial company still needs: a bank willing to hold its money.

JPMorgan Chase ended its banking relationship with Polymarket in October 2025, citing regulatory concerns surrounding the fast-growing prediction-market business.

The decision did not completely sever ties between the two companies. Polymarket continues to interact with parts of JPMorgan, and the bank has maintained relationships with other companies in the sector.

But losing an ordinary banking relationship exposes a vulnerability that applies across fintech and crypto:

A company can raise enormous amounts of capital, attract millions of users and operate sophisticated technology — and still face serious problems if major banks decide the regulatory risk is too high.

Polymarket allows users to trade contracts tied to whether future events will occur, covering areas ranging from elections and economic policy to sports and other real-world outcomes.

The industry has exploded in popularity, but regulators are still debating where prediction markets belong.

Supporters argue the contracts are federally regulated financial products that can provide valuable information about expectations for future events.

Critics argue that many of the contracts function much like gambling and should be subject to state gaming laws and consumer protections.

That unresolved legal landscape creates a separate problem for banks.

Financial institutions do not merely ask whether a customer’s business is technically legal. They also consider whether serving that customer could expose the bank to future enforcement actions, compliance costs, money-laundering concerns or reputational damage.

That can make banking access its own form of business risk.

Polymarket previously ran into federal regulators in 2022, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission accused it of operating an unregistered derivatives platform. The company paid a penalty and restricted access for U.S. users.

It has since returned to the American market through a regulated structure, but scrutiny has not disappeared.

Prediction-market companies are facing legal challenges from states that argue certain contracts amount to unauthorized gambling. New York City officials have separately begun examining marketing practices in the industry, including whether platforms are targeting young users with misleading or aggressive promotions.

That uncertainty helps explain JPMorgan’s caution.

Yet the relationship is unusually complicated.

JPMorgan has reportedly continued working with Polymarket in other capacities even after withdrawing traditional banking services. Earlier this year, the bank offered some wealth-management clients access to a Polymarket fundraising round that valued the company at roughly $14.5 billion.

Polymarket is now reportedly seeking additional capital at an even higher valuation.

That creates a remarkable contradiction.

A major bank can apparently consider Polymarket attractive enough to introduce to wealthy investors while simultaneously deciding that maintaining its basic banking relationship creates too much regulatory risk.

For business owners, that distinction is important.

Banks increasingly act as an additional layer of regulation for emerging industries. Crypto companies, cannabis businesses, gambling operators, payment companies and other businesses operating in legally complicated sectors can discover that being permitted to operate and being permitted to bank are two different things.

Without reliable banking relationships, companies can struggle with payroll, vendor payments, customer funds, financing and everyday cash management.

For prediction markets, that could become increasingly important as the industry grows.

Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are attempting to move from relatively niche trading products into mainstream financial and consumer businesses. Doing that requires not only customers and regulatory licenses, but dependable access to banking, payment and settlement infrastructure.

Polymarket found another banking provider after JPMorgan ended the relationship.

But the episode illustrates the industry’s larger challenge.

Prediction markets are trying to convince investors that they belong beside exchanges, brokerages and other mainstream financial institutions.

Some of the world’s largest banks are apparently not yet convinced that serving them is worth the risk.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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Jane Street, one of the most powerful trading firms on Wall Street, suffered an extraordinary $15 billion hit in July after an AI-stock selloff battered positions connected to one of the market’s most aggressive artificial-intelligence investment funds.

Yet the loss reveals something equally remarkable: Jane Street has still generated more than $40 billion in trading revenue this year, already surpassing the $39.6 billion it produced during all of 2025.

The July setback was tied partly to Jane Street’s investment in Situational Awareness, an AI-focused hedge fund run by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner.

The fund had grown rapidly as AI-related stocks surged during the first half of the year. But when semiconductor, memory and other AI-linked shares suddenly reversed in July, leveraged positions came under severe pressure.

Situational Awareness ultimately unloaded much of its stock portfolio in a distressed sale to Citadel after losses triggered margin calls.

Jane Street was caught in that reversal both through its investment in the fund and through other technology positions of its own.

Several major memory and semiconductor stocks fell roughly 50% during the July rout, according to a Jane Street communication to employees.

The result was Jane Street’s first negative month of trading revenue since 2016.

For perspective, a $15 billion loss would be catastrophic for almost any investment firm in the world.

For Jane Street, it interrupted an otherwise extraordinary year.

The privately held trading company has approximately 3,500 employees and operates across more than 200 trading venues worldwide, buying and selling stocks, bonds, ETFs, options, currencies and commodities.

Its scale allows the firm to hold enormous positions while providing liquidity to global markets.

That model can be extraordinarily profitable when markets move as expected.

July demonstrated what happens when they do not.

Jane Street said it has since reduced risk in some strategies and closed significant portions of positions associated with the losses.

The episode also offers investors a rare glimpse into how concentrated the AI trade has become.

Artificial intelligence is no longer simply a collection of popular technology stocks held by retail investors. Hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, banks and institutional investors have committed enormous amounts of capital to many of the same semiconductor, data-center, cloud-computing and memory companies.

That concentration can amplify gains when AI stocks rise.

It can also accelerate losses when investors attempt to exit similar positions simultaneously.

The most unusual part of Jane Street’s July loss may therefore be what happened afterward.

Despite absorbing approximately $15 billion in a single month, the firm remains on pace for what could still be the most profitable year in its history.

That says as much about the extraordinary amount of money being made around today’s markets as the loss itself.

But July delivered a warning that applies far beyond Jane Street:

A trade can become enormously profitable without becoming less dangerous.

And when billions of dollars are crowded into the same AI bets, a relatively short market reversal can produce losses measured not in millions — but in tens of billions.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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Wall Street enters the new week near record territory, but investors are about to get a much clearer answer to the question hanging over the economy: Are American consumers finally pulling back?

The week of Aug. 17 through Aug. 21 brings earnings from Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Walmart, fresh manufacturing and housing data, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting. Together, they will provide one of the broadest real-time checks yet on consumers, housing, business activity and interest rates.

That matters after July retail sales fell 0.6%, raising concerns that higher fuel costs, expensive borrowing and persistent inflation are beginning to change household behavior.

Monday: Manufacturing and Housing Open the Week

Monday starts with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, an early monthly reading on factory conditions in New York State.

Investors will be watching new orders, employment and prices paid for signs that manufacturers are seeing demand weaken or costs rise.

At 10 a.m. ET, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index provides another look at the strained housing industry.

Housing matters far beyond homebuilders. Weak home sales can ripple through mortgage lending, furniture, appliances, building materials, contractors and home-improvement spending.

That connection becomes even more important Tuesday.

Tuesday: Home Depot Tests the Housing Consumer

Home Depot reports Tuesday, giving investors a direct look at whether homeowners are still willing to spend on renovations and repairs.

Wall Street expects roughly $47.2 billion in quarterly revenue and $4.73 per share in earnings.

The headline numbers will matter, but investors may focus even more closely on customer traffic, transactions and purchases of expensive items.

Homeowners can postpone a kitchen remodel or new deck much more easily than they can postpone buying groceries. Home Depot therefore provides a particularly useful gauge of discretionary household confidence.

Wednesday: Target, Lowe’s — and the Fed

Wednesday could be the week’s most important session.

Target and Lowe’s both report earnings, giving Wall Street two very different views of the consumer.

Target provides a window into discretionary spending on clothing, household goods, electronics and other products consumers can easily delay.

Lowe’s provides another measurement of housing-related spending and will allow investors to compare its results directly with Home Depot.

Then at 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July 28-29 meeting.

The Fed held its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the vote exposed an unusually significant disagreement among policymakers.

Markets will search the minutes for clues about how many officials believe inflation remains dangerous enough to require another rate increase — and what economic evidence could change their minds before September.

That could quickly move Treasury yields, mortgage rates, the dollar and rate-sensitive stocks.

Wednesday is also the scheduled start of a potentially important trade development: 50% U.S. tariffs on a broad group of Canadian goods are due to take effect Aug. 19 unless Washington and Ottawa reach an agreement.

For manufacturers and distributors operating across the highly integrated U.S.-Canadian supply chain, that deadline could matter as much as any earnings report.

Thursday: Walmart Gives the Broadest Consumer Read

Then comes Walmart on Thursday.

Few companies provide a better snapshot of the American household.

Walmart serves consumers across income levels and sells everything from groceries and medicine to televisions, clothing and furniture. The mix of what shoppers are buying can therefore tell investors almost as much as the company’s total sales.

Wall Street expects approximately $186.9 billion in quarterly revenue and earnings of 74 cents a share.

The most revealing question may be whether shoppers are continuing to prioritize necessities while reducing discretionary purchases.

If Walmart reports strong grocery sales but weakness in electronics, furniture and apparel, it could signal that consumers are still spending because they have to — not because they feel financially comfortable.

Investors will also listen closely for commentary about tariffs, supplier costs and whether Walmart is absorbing higher costs or passing them along through higher prices.

Weekly unemployment claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey are also due Thursday, providing additional evidence on employment and business activity.

Friday: Businesses Give Their Own Economic Forecast

Friday brings preliminary August purchasing-managers indexes, giving investors one of the earliest readings on business conditions during the current month.

PMIs track areas including new orders, hiring, production and prices across manufacturing and services.

That makes Friday’s numbers particularly useful because most government statistics describe conditions several weeks earlier.

If businesses report slowing orders while prices remain elevated, markets could face the uncomfortable combination of weaker growth and persistent inflation.

Retail Earnings May Matter More Than the Economic Reports

The week’s four major retailers cover remarkably different pieces of American spending.

Home Depot and Lowe’s measure homeowners and construction-related demand.

Target measures discretionary middle-income spending.

Walmart provides one of the broadest windows into household budgets and necessities.

Put them together and investors should have a considerably better picture of whether July’s 0.6% drop in retail sales was simply a weak month or the beginning of a more meaningful consumer slowdown.

That distinction is important because consumer spending represents roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

If shoppers remain resilient, corporate earnings and the broader economy may have more room to run.

If retailers begin reporting weaker traffic, smaller transactions and customers aggressively trading down, Wall Street may have to reconsider how much economic strength is already priced into stocks near record highs.

The Other Wild Card: Oil

Oil remains capable of overwhelming almost everything else on the calendar.

Brent crude ended last week near $88.50 a barrel after another sharp weekly increase as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz kept global energy markets tense.

Another move higher would affect gasoline, freight, airlines, manufacturing and consumer spending — while potentially making the Federal Reserve even more reluctant to lower interest rates.

A meaningful decline in crude could have the opposite effect.

What Investors Should Watch Most

The week’s central question is not whether Walmart or Home Depot beats Wall Street’s earnings estimate by a few cents.

It is what their customers are doing.

Watch traffic.

Watch how much shoppers spend per visit.

Watch whether consumers are buying necessities instead of discretionary products.

Watch whether companies are discounting more aggressively.

And watch what executives say about the next three months.

Economic reports tell investors what consumers did.

This week, some of America’s largest retailers will tell Wall Street what consumers are doing right now.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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Bill Ackman’s new fund owns about $50 worth of stock for every share it has issued. Those shares change hands in the high $30s. Buy one today and you are paying roughly 80 cents for a dollar of Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and the rest of the portfolio — and on Thursday, on his firm’s first earnings call as a public company, Ackman said that gap makes no sense and that he intends to close it.

“We think the trading of PSUS is frankly absurd, and we are going to take some steps to fix that,” the chief executive told analysts, referring to Pershing Square US, the closed-end fund he listed on the New York Stock Exchange in April.

Here is the mechanism in plain terms, because the whole story turns on it. A closed-end fund sells a fixed number of shares once, invests the money, and then never issues or buys back stock in the ordinary course. Unlike an exchange-traded fund, there is no machinery forcing the share price to track the value of what the fund owns. So the price is whatever buyers and sellers agree on that day, and it can drift well below the underlying holdings. That gap is the discount, and Ackman’s is running at about one-fifth.

The fund raised $5 billion at $50 a share and stumbled out of the gate on April 29, trading as low as $40.33 within minutes and closing the day at $40.90, down 18%. It has not recovered since, even as the broader market has climbed to record levels this week.

Ackman’s own diagnosis is that he mishandled who got the stock. The firm gave retail buyers a full allocation and cut institutions back sharply, in what he described as an attempt at democratizing access. His read is that individual investors asked for more shares than they expected to be handed, then sold what they did not want. The result was a supply of sellers and almost no steady buyers, on thin volume, with each trade nudging the price a little lower.

The plan to fix it has three parts, and none of them involve the portfolio itself. The first is marketing, which Ackman said is now unrestricted in a way his older London-listed fund never was — he can promote this one on television, on podcasts, and directly to financial advisers. His pitch to those advisers is that a client who buys in the open market gets the same portfolio at 80 cents on the dollar without the adviser having to pull money out of an account earning a management fee. The second is leverage: beginning in early September, the firm will meet with rating agencies to get the fund rated, then issue investment-grade bonds, targeting debt equal to 15% to 20% of total assets. That is roughly 0.15 to 0.2 times equity, against the eight to twelve times some hedge funds run. The third is a new vehicle, Pershing Square Ventures, targeted for late 2026 and aimed at private companies ranging from a few hundred million in valuation up to the $10 billion range — a portfolio, Ackman argued, that public investors could not assemble on their own and would therefore be less likely to price at a discount.

The underlying business had a solid quarter. Pershing Square Inc., the listed management company, reported earnings of 14 cents a share on revenue of $54.18 million. Fee-paying assets under management climbed $4.6 billion in the quarter to roughly $23 billion, and the firm said its portfolio was up 20% for the year to date. The fund was 95% invested by quarter-end, having deployed its cash during a volatile spring that Ackman said handed him the buying conditions he had hoped for.

Shares of the management company closed at $38.80 and added 2.8% to $39.89 in after-hours trading, leaving them well below the 52-week high of $54.94 and well above the $22.01 low.

There is a wild card in the portfolio that Ackman raised himself. The funds hold roughly 230 million shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at about $5 each. If the administration follows through on releasing the two mortgage companies from government control and relisting them, he argued, those become $40 or $50 stocks — an overnight increase of $8 billion to $9 billion in assets, or close to a third of the firm’s fee-paying base.

That is the bet an investor is making at a 20% discount: that the holdings are worth what Ackman says, and that enough buyers eventually agree to close the gap.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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NEW YORK — Wall Street ended Friday modestly lower, pulling back from Thursday’s record as investors confronted a combination the market has been trying to avoid: a weakening U.S. consumer at the same time energy costs are moving higher.

The S&P 500 fell 0.17% to 7,785.58, retreating from Thursday’s record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 107.46 points, or 0.20%, to 53,732.53, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28% to 26,729.16.

The declines were relatively small, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still finished the week higher. But Friday changed the conversation after several sessions dominated by encouraging inflation data.

The biggest economic surprise came from the American shopper.

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July, the first monthly decline in nine months and the largest drop in more than a year. The closely watched control group used in calculating gross domestic product also declined, suggesting the weakness extended beyond volatile categories.

That matters because consumers account for the majority of U.S. economic activity. For months, households have complained about high prices while continuing to spend. Friday’s report provided more concrete evidence that some consumers may finally be reducing what they buy.

Consumer confidence reinforced the concern. The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July, substantially below economists’ expectations.

Ordinarily, weaker economic data can help stocks because it reduces the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

Friday showed the other side of that equation.

Investors now have to determine whether the economy is slowing just enough to bring inflation under control — or enough to begin damaging corporate sales and profits.

Oil complicated the picture further.

Brent crude climbed 1.7% to $88.52 a barrel as continued uncertainty surrounding Iran and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz kept fears of supply disruptions alive.

Higher oil creates a particularly difficult combination for businesses. It can increase transportation, manufacturing and distribution costs while simultaneously taking money away from consumers through higher gasoline and energy bills.

Technology stocks were another drag on the major indexes.

Applied Materials dropped roughly 5% even after the semiconductor-equipment company reported strong results and issued an upbeat forecast. The reaction highlighted how demanding expectations have become for companies connected to the artificial-intelligence investment boom.

Broadcom also fell sharply as investors pulled money from some highly valued semiconductor names.

One of Friday’s biggest winners, meanwhile, had little to do with earnings.

Reddit surged more than 12% after being selected to join the S&P 500. The addition takes effect before trading begins Tuesday, August 18, forcing many index funds and investment products that track the S&P 500 to purchase Reddit shares.

Drone companies also rallied after President Donald Trump said the United States would impose tariffs on imported drones and components. Unusual Machines jumped more than 20%, while Red Cat also posted a strong gain.

The bond market added another wrinkle. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.69%, meaning investors were simultaneously confronting softer consumer data, higher oil and borrowing costs that remain elevated.

Friday therefore leaves Wall Street with a more complicated economic picture heading into next week.

Inflation has cooled enough to ease some pressure on the Federal Reserve, but the consumer may also be cooling faster than investors anticipated.

That puts an even brighter spotlight on the next wave of corporate earnings. Walmart, Home Depot, Target and Lowe’s are among the major consumer-facing companies preparing to report, giving investors a direct look at what Americans are buying, what they are cutting back on and how much pricing power businesses still have.

For companies outside Wall Street, Friday’s message may be even more important than the modest decline in stock indexes.

Lower inflation is good. Lower interest rates would be good.

But neither matters nearly as much if the customer starts spending less.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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A second straight day of softer inflation data is reshaping the Federal Reserve’s September decision, with financial markets increasingly betting policymakers may leave interest rates unchanged rather than raise them again.

Consumer and wholesale inflation both came in milder than feared this week, easing concern that persistent price pressures would force the Fed to tighten monetary policy immediately.

The shift is significant because only days ago markets were treating another September rate increase as roughly a coin toss.

Those odds have fallen sharply.

The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%, and policymakers remain divided over whether inflation is cooling quickly enough to justify waiting. 

The debate is increasingly visible inside the Fed itself.

Some officials argue that inflation remains too far above the central bank’s 2% target and that another increase may still be necessary. Others see this week’s inflation reports, combined with signs of softer employment and consumer demand, as reasons to avoid tightening unnecessarily.

That disagreement puts Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a difficult position.

Raise rates too aggressively and the central bank risks slowing an economy already showing pockets of weakness. Wait too long and inflation could regain momentum, particularly if higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict begin filtering through transportation, manufacturing and consumer prices.

Bond markets are already reflecting that split.

Short-term yields have eased as investors reduce expectations for an immediate Fed increase, while long-term borrowing costs remain unusually high.

That means businesses could eventually get some relief on shorter-term financing while mortgages, commercial real estate loans and long-duration corporate borrowing remain expensive.

The next major test comes at the Fed’s September meeting.

Until then, every significant inflation, employment and consumer-spending report will carry unusual weight because the central bank is no longer deciding whether inflation is a problem.

It is deciding whether the problem is serious enough to justify another rate increase despite mounting evidence that parts of the economy are beginning to cool.

For businesses, the difference could be substantial.

A September pause would not make borrowing cheap again.

But it would remove the immediate threat of another increase — and give companies something they have had very little of lately: time for financial conditions to stabilize.

JBizNews Desk | Washington

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U.S. stocks opened little changed Friday, August 14, as Wall Street weighed a surprisingly weak consumer-spending report against lower expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase, while renewed U.S.-Iran tensions kept oil and inflation risks in focus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 2.8 points, or 0.01%, at 53,842.80. The S&P 500 gained 7.6 points, or 0.10%, to 7,806.60, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 48.1 points, or 0.18%, to 26,851.15. The muted opening comes one day after the S&P 500 closed at another record high. 

The biggest economic surprise arrived before the bell. U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, dramatically weaker than the 0.1% increase economists expected and reversing June’s 0.2% gain. More importantly, the closely watched control-group measure — which strips out autos, gasoline, building materials and restaurants and feeds more directly into GDP calculations — fell 0.4% instead of rising the expected 0.3%. 

The weakness does not necessarily mean the consumer suddenly collapsed. June benefited from Amazon moving Prime Day forward from July and competing retailers launching promotions at the same time, while lower gasoline prices reduced July service-station receipts. Still, the report is an important warning that households may be becoming more cautious after months of high gasoline prices and elevated borrowing costs. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy. 

The softer spending report also gives the Federal Reserve another reason to remain patient. Markets had already reduced the probability of a September rate increase to roughly one-in-three after this week’s cooler CPI and producer-price reports. The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.65% Friday morning, keeping borrowing costs historically high even as shorter-term rate expectations have eased. 

Individual stocks are moving far more dramatically than the indexes. Reddit surged roughly 14% in early trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the social-media company will join the S&P 500. JPMorgan estimates index funds tracking the benchmark could ultimately need to purchase about 16.7 million Reddit shares, nearly three times the stock’s average daily trading volume. 

Applied Materials fell about 4% to 5% despite reporting strong results and forecasting fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $10.25 billion, well above the $9.54 billion Wall Street consensus. The problem is expectations: Applied Materials shares have more than doubled this year, and investors are demanding evidence that the semiconductor-equipment giant can grow faster than competitors including ASML, Lam Research and KLA. 

Other AI-linked names are moving sharply as well. Sandisk gained roughly 3%, Nebius rose about 5%, while Broadcom and Strategy fell between 2% and 3%. The dispersion shows how selective the AI trade has become: investors are still rewarding companies tied to the infrastructure boom, but valuations now leave little room for disappointing guidance or slowing growth. 

Oil remains the biggest outside risk. Crude rose earlier Friday after the United States threatened to maintain its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, adding another layer of uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded near $88.50 a barrel earlier in the morning and WTI near $82.80, with both benchmarks heading toward weekly gains as shipping through one of the world’s most important energy corridors remains disrupted. 

The economic calendar is not finished. The University of Michigan’s preliminary August consumer-sentiment report is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET, along with updated inflation expectations, while business-inventory data is also due. At the exact 10:00 a.m. cutoff for this recap, the university had not yet posted the August figures publicly, so JBizNews is not publishing an unverified number. July sentiment stood at 55.2, while one-year inflation expectations were 4.2%. 

For the rest of Friday, investors will be watching consumer sentiment, Treasury yields, oil prices and any new U.S.-Iran or Strait of Hormuz developments. After three days of relatively friendly inflation data but Friday’s surprisingly weak retail report, Wall Street is now confronting a different question: whether slower inflation is arriving alongside a meaningful slowdown in consumer demand.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Robinhood is pushing further into private markets, launching a new publicly traded venture fund that gives ordinary investors access to early- and growth-stage startups that historically have been available mainly to venture-capital firms, institutions and wealthy accredited investors.

Robinhood Ventures Fund II began trading on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday after raising about $225.5 million, creating a new vehicle that allows retail investors to buy exposure to a portfolio of private companies through a publicly traded fund.

The strategy is aimed in part at companies connected to Y Combinator and other startup ecosystems where some of the most valuable technology businesses begin years before they ever consider an initial public offering.

That matters because the structure of the American stock market has changed dramatically.

Many high-growth companies now remain private for much longer than they did a generation ago. Instead of going public relatively early and allowing everyday investors to participate in much of their growth, startups can raise billions of dollars privately from venture firms, sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors while delaying an IPO for years.

By the time those companies finally reach the stock market, some of the largest gains may already have gone to private investors.

Robinhood is trying to give its customers a way into that earlier stage.

Rather than requiring investors to qualify as accredited investors or commit large sums directly to venture funds, the new vehicle can be bought and sold through the public market like other listed investments.

That does not make startup investing risk-free.

Early-stage companies fail at much higher rates than established public corporations, private-company valuations can be difficult to determine, and investments may remain illiquid for years. Even when a startup succeeds, there is no guarantee it will eventually go public or be acquired at a higher valuation.

But the launch represents an important shift in who gets access to venture investing.

Robinhood built its original business around making stock and options trading easier for individual investors. It later expanded into retirement accounts, crypto, credit cards and other financial products.

Private-market access is becoming another front in that expansion.

It also puts Robinhood into a much larger competition taking shape across Wall Street.

Asset managers, brokerages and private-equity firms are increasingly looking for ways to package private investments for individual customers as wealthy and institutional investors pour more money into companies outside traditional public exchanges.

The opportunity is large because the number of major private companies has grown alongside their valuations.

Some startups now reach valuations of tens of billions or even more than $100 billion while remaining privately held, creating businesses that are effectively public-company size without public-company access.

For retail investors, that has created an unusual problem: they can easily buy shares of mature companies such as Apple, Microsoft or Amazon, but may have almost no direct access to the next generation of companies competing to become them.

Robinhood’s new venture fund is attempting to bridge that gap.

If the model gains traction, investors may increasingly be able to gain exposure to startups long before a traditional IPO.

And that could gradually change one of the most fundamental divisions in American finance — the line separating Wall Street’s private market from the ordinary investor.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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Hertz Global Holdings closed Thursday at $2.47, down almost 12%, after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management disclosed it had sold out of the car-rental company entirely. The stock was off as much as 16% during the session, wiping out an earlier gain. The decline put Hertz’s market value under $1 billion.

The disclosure came in Pershing Square’s interim report published Thursday, which said the firm exited Hertz in July. The sale itself is a month old. The market only learned of it Thursday morning, which is why a stale trade moved the stock.

The reason Ackman gave is more damaging than the sale. On a call Thursday, he said the firm closed the position after Hertz’s June equity offering of roughly 37 million shares priced at $2.70 and tied to exchangeable notes, calling the deal bungled and unnecessary. Chief Investment Officer Ryan Israel said Pershing lost confidence in management after a funding plan the firm did not think was needed, adding that it was unlike anything they had seen a company do. Pershing’s position was that Hertz had just posted solid first- and second-quarter results with strong liquidity, which made an overnight share sale on poor terms hard to explain. Ackman and Israel said they still like the operating team; the objection is to how management handles capital.

That distinction matters, because the operating numbers have been improving. Hertz reported second-quarter revenue of $2.4 billion against a $2.28 billion estimate, an adjusted loss of 11 cents a share where analysts looked for a 24-cent loss, and fleet utilization up 80 basis points to 79% on a 1% smaller fleet. Adjusted corporate EBITDA came in at $81 million, up from $18 million a year earlier and above the top of management’s revised guidance. Renting out a slightly smaller fleet slightly more of the time is exactly the lever a rental company has, and Hertz pulled it.

The June sequence is what broke the relationship. On June 24 the stock fell 41% after the company cut its second-quarter EBITDA guidance to a range of $50 million to $80 million, blaming weak used-car prices — a direct hit, since Hertz continually sells vehicles out of its fleet and falling resale values land straight in earnings. Alongside that, the company unveiled a $400 million financing package of $300 million in convertible senior notes and a $100 million common stock offering, with more than 37 million shares made available for hedging. Investors read that as dilution arriving at the worst possible price and sold.

Ackman’s complaint, in plain terms: the company raised equity cheap while telling the market its business was getting better, and did it in a structure that put a large block of borrowed stock into hedging hands. Thursday’s close sits 8.5% below the $2.70 offering price — meaning the buyers of that deal are also underwater.

The size of the position is worth keeping straight. Pershing held 15.2 million shares, about 5.84% of Hertz’s stock and the tenth-largest holding in its portfolio, but only about 0.27% of the firm’s equity book — roughly one dollar in every 370 Ackman manages. Against near $2.4 billion positions in Brookfield and Amazon, Hertz was a rounding error. It still cost him: the report showed Hertz subtracting 1.1% from Pershing’s gross performance this year through Aug. 11, one of the fund’s worst names. A small stake can do outsized damage when it falls far enough.

For Hertz, the arithmetic runs the other way. Losing a holder of one in every seventeen shares removes the most visible name on the register, and it interrupted something the company badly needed. The stock had been rallying on the earnings beat and on heavy short interest, a combination retail buyers had been pressing. Shares failed to clear $3 and reversed below $2.50, leaving the stock down roughly 52% for the year.

The balance sheet is where the real question sits. Hertz reported $984 million in liquidity, close to the entire market value of its equity — but fleet financing, the revolving credit line and secured noteholders all rank ahead of shareholders for that money. Equity holders are last in line, which makes the stock a bet on recovery rather than a claim on cash.

Management’s own outlook implies the second half has to do the heavy lifting. The company guided to adjusted corporate EBITDA of $275 million to $325 million for the third quarter with positive earnings per share, against a full-year range of $225 million to $275 million. A full-year target below a single quarter’s target only works if the first half was in the hole, which it was. Everything now depends on used-car prices holding up and on the summer rental season delivering. Ackman decided in July he did not want to wait and find out.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that American strategy in the confrontation with Iran comes down to two aims: keeping oil and gas prices stable for Americans, and making certain Tehran never obtains a nuclear weapon. Speaking on Fox News, he said he is confident both are being achieved, while allowing the outcome is unpredictable because Iran has repeatedly failed to honor commitments it made. He described the goal as returning the Strait of Hormuz to a state where energy prices are steady, and said the administration is using diplomatic, military and economic tools selectively toward that end.

Stated plainly, the White House is telling the public it will be judged on the price at the pump as much as on centrifuges.

On price, the claim largely holds. Vance noted oil was down on the day and far below the levels of the conflict’s early weeks. Brent traded above $100 a barrel in March, its highest since 2022, after attacks on the UAE port of Fujairah and strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island export hub. Thursday it sat near $82 for U.S. crude, ending a five-day advance, with Brent around $88. That is roughly a fifth off the peak — and still well above pre-war levels.

Stability is not the same as normal supply. Gulf crude and condensate exports were running about 40% below pre-war levels in July, at roughly 10.7 million barrels a day. Ship-tracking data showed eight to 15 vessels crossing Hormuz on each of the first days of August, against about 130 transits a day before the war — closer to one ship in ten. The International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report puts the world short about 1.8 million barrels a day this quarter. There is real disagreement about how tight things are: one analysis this week argued that oil under $90 is not the price of a genuine shortage, and that counting bypass pipelines, regional flows may be running not far below pre-war levels.

The domestic picture has improved sharply in the past week. U.S. crude imports averaged 7.3 million barrels a day in the week ended Aug. 7, up 1.14 million a day, lifting commercial crude inventories 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million, the biggest weekly build since January 2023. Imports of Middle Eastern crude are on track for roughly 600,000 barrels a day this month, the most since the war started, helped by Saudi cargoes routed overland to the Red Sea and then through the Suez Canal. Fuel stocks are the weak spot: gasoline inventories are about 6% below their five-year average and distillate about 12% below.

The tension in the two-goal formula is the blockade. Washington imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 13 and reimposed it in early August after renewed attacks on commercial vessels. The administration has estimated the blockade costs Iran roughly $500 million a day, with the Pentagon putting Iran’s lost oil revenue at about $4.8 billion by the start of May. That is pressure on the nuclear question. It is also barrels kept off the water, which works against the price goal in the short run — the same instrument pulling in two directions at once.

Tehran has made that trade-off explicit. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said this week that the United States must lift the blockade before conditions exist to fully reopen Hormuz, and that Iran and Oman are negotiating over shipping routes in the strait. A memorandum signed by the two governments on June 17 to open the waterway to commercial ships collapsed within weeks in disputes over which routes vessels could use. Talks remain deadlocked, and the administration is moving toward broader sanctions alongside continued enforcement.

Vance’s remarks follow comments from President Trump earlier in the week asserting that the United States has total control of the Strait of Hormuz and questioning any Iranian assurance. The waterway normally carries about a fifth of global oil supply.

For businesses, the practical read is narrower than the rhetoric. Crude has settled into the low $80s, American storage tanks are refilling, and refiners are running near capacity. None of that is the same as the strait reopening. Freight rates, marine insurance and delivery times for anything moving through the Gulf still reflect a waterway operating at a fraction of normal traffic, and they will keep doing so until ships can sail it routinely. The price of oil has stabilized. The route has not.

JBizNews Desk | Washington, D.C.

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The S&P 500 crossed 7,800 for the first time Thursday before closing at a record 7,798.99, up 50.49 points, or 0.65%, as softer inflation and falling oil prices gave investors another reason to believe the Federal Reserve may leave interest rates alone next month.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 214.54 points, or 0.81%, to 26,803.03. The Dow Jones Industrial Average barely moved, adding 69.72 points, or 0.13%, to 53,839.99.

Small-cap stocks continued to outperform. The Russell 2000 reached an intraday record above 3,060 before closing at 3,052.85, up 0.24%. The index is now up about 23% this year, comfortably ahead of the S&P 500’s 13.9% gain.

Two things drove Thursday’s market: inflation came in cooler and oil got cheaper.

Wholesale prices were unchanged in July, better than economists expected, while producer prices rose 4.7% from a year earlier. The report followed Wednesday’s relatively mild consumer inflation reading and immediately reduced expectations that the Fed will raise rates at its September meeting.

That distinction matters. The question facing markets is whether the Fed raises rates again — not whether it cuts them.

After Thursday’s inflation report, futures markets put the probability of a September rate increase at roughly 35%, down from about 40% before the report. The two-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to Fed expectations, fell to about 4.14%, while the benchmark 10-year yield eased to roughly 4.64%.

Inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2% target, however, and policymakers remain divided over whether another increase is necessary. One softer month does not resolve the inflation problem; it simply gives the Fed more room to wait.

Oil moved sharply in the other direction, and stocks welcomed it.

Brent crude fell $1.91, or 2.15%, to settle at $87.07 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate dropped $2.02, or 2.4%, to $81.25.

The decline followed signs of weakening global demand and an enormous increase in U.S. crude inventories. Commercial crude inventories jumped 17.4 million barrels last week, the largest weekly increase since January 2023.

The International Energy Agency now expects global oil consumption to contract by 1.6 million barrels a day this year as high prices and restricted supply tied to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran weigh on demand.

For businesses, cheaper oil matters far beyond gasoline stations. Lower energy prices eventually work their way through trucking, aviation, shipping, manufacturing, packaging and nearly every supply chain that moves physical goods.

But Thursday also delivered a very different message from the bond market.

The Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at a yield of 5.22% — the highest borrowing cost at a 30-year auction since 2001.

That created an unusual split. Short-term Treasury yields fell because investors believe the Fed may pause. Long-term borrowing costs remain exceptionally high because investors are demanding greater compensation for inflation, government debt and fiscal uncertainty over the coming decades.

In plain English, Wall Street became more comfortable with the next several months while remaining nervous about the next 30 years.

That distinction matters enormously for businesses. Short-term financing costs are becoming somewhat friendlier. Mortgages, commercial real estate loans, infrastructure projects and other long-duration financing remain expensive.

Individual stocks produced some much larger swings than the indexes.

Tapestry, the owner of Coach and Kate Spade, plunged after investors focused on a softer-than-expected outlook despite another strong quarter from Coach. The reaction demonstrated just how little room highly valued companies have for disappointment: beating the quarter is no longer enough if the forecast does not keep pace with expectations.

StubHub dropped more than 20% after its earnings report, while AI-chip company Cerebras fell roughly 15% despite revenue growth of more than 70%. Cisco also declined after reporting better-than-expected revenue and earnings as investors focused instead on pressure on gross margins.

There were substantial winners as well.

Birkenstock jumped more than 11% after stronger quarterly results, while Ardagh Metal Packaging surged after its controlling shareholder instructed advisers to prepare for a potential sale of the company.

Precious metals retreated after their recent run. Front-month gold futures fell 1.03% to settle at $4,363.60 an ounce, snapping a four-session winning streak, while silver declined 1.04% to $64.873.

The broader message from Thursday was straightforward: investors received lower inflation, cheaper oil and falling short-term Treasury yields on the same day.

That was enough to push the S&P 500 into record territory.

The warning is valuation.

When markets are priced for nearly everything to go right, companies can lose billions of dollars in market value because an outlook misses expectations by a fraction. Tapestry’s decline was the clearest example Thursday.

For anyone running a business, the most useful numbers were not necessarily the record S&P 500.

Fuel costs are moving lower. Short-term borrowing expectations are easing. Long-term financing remains extraordinarily expensive.

That divergence may become one of the most important business stories heading into the fall.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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The Treasury offered $25 billion of 30-year bonds at its monthly auction Thursday afternoon, with pre-auction trading pointing to a yield around 5.23% — the highest the government has paid to borrow for three decades since 2001. That was the year the Treasury killed the long bond entirely, a decision leaked to Goldman Sachs traders before the public announcement and reversed in 2005. The circumstances then were the opposite of today’s: budget surpluses had investors worried there was not enough government debt to go around.

The number to sit with is what the interest already costs. Interest on the public debt runs $1.17 trillion for the fiscal year to date, up 15% from a year ago — roughly $3.8 billion a day, every day, before a dollar goes to anything else. Each auction at a higher yield locks part of that bill in for the next thirty years.

The move is fast. July’s 30-year auction cleared at 5.058%, itself the highest since 2007. A month later the market is asking for roughly another 17 basis points. Wednesday’s 10-year sale drew the highest yield for that maturity since 2007.

What makes this awkward is that short rates are going the other way. The Federal Reserve has left its target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed sets the short end; the long end is set by investors deciding what they need to be paid to hold thirty years of American fiscal policy. Right now they want 1.5 percentage points more than the overnight rate — a market saying the risk is out in the distance, not in the next meeting.

Buyers are not stepping up to lock in multi-decade highs, which suggests the selloff may have further to run. Michal Stanczyk, a portfolio manager on the global fixed income team at Allspring Global Investments, wrote that “a successful auction shouldn’t be confused with strong structural demand for long-duration assets.” An auction clears. That is not the same as investors wanting the paper.

The Treasury adjusted its debt-sales guidance last week in a way that opens the door to trimming long bond supply. Issuing shorter cuts today’s coupon but means refinancing again sooner, which is only cheaper if rates come down. If they do not, the government simply rolls the problem forward at whatever the market charges next time.

For anyone outside Washington, the transmission runs through the mortgage. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.69% for the week ending August 6, up from 6.66% and higher than the 6.63% of a year ago. Rates dipped below 6% in late February, just before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran; the 15-year has since climbed back above 6% at 6.01%. The affordability gains earlier this year are gone.

The arithmetic on a home loan is unforgiving. On a $200,000 loan over 30 years, 6% costs about $1,199 a month against $955 at 4% — roughly $244 more, every month, for 360 months. That is close to $88,000 in extra interest on the same house.

Commercial borrowers feel it in the same place. Long-dated corporate debt, commercial mortgages and project financing all price off the long end of the Treasury curve. A business refinancing a building this year is negotiating against a benchmark that has moved to a 25-year high, regardless of how solid its own numbers look.

There is no quick fix on offer. Elevated financing costs are already working through the broader economy after years of high inflation and government spending, and the timing is a problem for President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent heading into November’s midterms. Shortening the maturity of new issuance buys time. Bringing the yield down requires either lower inflation expectations or a smaller deficit, and neither is inside the Treasury’s control.

One thing borrowers can control: Freddie Mac’s research finds that getting a single additional rate quote saves roughly $600 over the life of a loan, and three quotes up to $1,200. Modest against $88,000, but it is the part of the equation that does not depend on the bond market.

The auction result will tell whether 5.23% was enough to draw real demand or merely enough to clear. Either way, the government has now put a 25-year-high interest rate on paper that comes due in 2056.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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U.S. stocks strengthened through late morning Thursday, August 13, with the S&P 500 reaching a fresh intraday record as softer wholesale inflation, lower oil prices and renewed buying in technology shares pushed Wall Street higher.

As of roughly 11:55 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up about 110 points, or 0.2%, near 53,880. The S&P 500 climbed roughly 55 points, or 0.7%, to around 7,804, while the Nasdaq Composite gained about 235 points, or 0.9%, to approximately 26,825. The S&P 500 earlier traded above 7,813, setting another intraday record.

Thursday morning’s economic reports were broadly supportive. Producer prices were unchanged in July, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase, while annual wholesale inflation slowed to 4.7% from 5.5% in June. Initial unemployment claims rose modestly to 209,000, suggesting some cooling in the labor market without signaling a sharp deterioration.

The combination strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve can leave interest rates unchanged in September. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to roughly 4.61%, providing additional support for technology stocks and other rate-sensitive sectors.

Big Tech is helping lead the market higher. Microsoft rose about 1.4%, Nvidia gained roughly 0.6% and Apple advanced around 0.5%, while the broader technology sector outperformed the market.

Oil is providing another important tailwind. Brent crude fell more than 3% to around $86 a barrel, easing concerns that the recent energy-price surge will feed into inflation and increase costs for businesses and consumers.

Individual stocks are producing much larger moves. Cisco fell roughly 7% despite beating quarterly profit and revenue expectations as investors focused on weaker margins. Tapestry dropped about 15% following its earnings report. Dell rose roughly 2.5%, while HP gained around 4% as investors responded to continued strength in AI-related infrastructure demand.

Lower fuel prices are also helping travel stocks. United Airlines gained roughly 1.7% and Carnival rose nearly 3%. Rate-sensitive housing shares also moved higher, including AvalonBay Communities and Builders FirstSource.

One additional economic report arrived after the opening bell. U.S. natural-gas inventories increased by 36 billion cubic feet, slightly more than economists expected.

For the rest of Thursday, investors are watching the 1:00 p.m. ET auction of 30-year Treasury bonds. Weak demand could push long-term yields higher and pressure the technology-led rally.

After the closing bell, Applied Materials reports earnings, giving Wall Street another important look at semiconductor-equipment demand and whether the enormous AI infrastructure spending boom remains intact.

For now, the market’s message is clear: inflation is cooling, oil is falling, bond yields are easing and investors are again willing to pay up for growth.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Goldman Sachs is paying as much as $2.25 billion for NEOS Investments, but the more important story is what it is buying: a fast-growing corner of the investment business built around investors who want income, downside protection and the convenience of an ETF.

NEOS manages roughly $30 billion across 19 exchange-traded funds, many of which use options to generate regular income rather than simply trying to track an index.

That is increasingly attractive to both investors and Wall Street.

Traditional passive ETFs transformed investing by offering cheap access to stocks and bonds. But because their fees are extremely low, they are not always particularly lucrative for the companies managing them.

Active and options-based ETFs are different.

They can charge meaningfully higher management fees because the strategy involves more than simply copying an index. Some sell options against stock portfolios to generate income. Others are structured to provide a degree of downside protection or specific investment outcomes.

For an asset manager, that can mean recurring fee income that is considerably more predictable than investment-banking revenue, which rises and falls with mergers, IPOs and corporate borrowing.

That helps explain Goldman’s interest.

The bank has been deliberately expanding its asset- and wealth-management businesses so a larger percentage of its revenue arrives every quarter whether Wall Street is experiencing a deal boom or a slowdown.

NEOS fits directly into that strategy.

Goldman already manages about $40 billion in income and outcome-oriented options-based ETFs. Adding NEOS would help lift its actively managed ETF assets to approximately $80 billion and place Goldman among the eight largest active ETF providers.

It follows Goldman’s acquisition of Innovator Capital Management, another specialist in defined-outcome ETFs, which the bank completed earlier this year.

Taken together, the purchases show Goldman is not simply trying to sell more ETFs.

It is trying to own more of the investment products financial advisers increasingly use for clients seeking income and protection without abandoning the stock market.

That demand has become particularly important as millions of Americans reach retirement age.

A retiree may still want exposure to the S&P 500 but may also want monthly income and less sensitivity to a major market decline. Options-based ETFs attempt to package those goals into a product that can be bought and sold as easily as an ordinary stock.

There is a tradeoff.

Generating additional income by selling options can limit some of the upside when markets rise rapidly, and downside-protection strategies do not eliminate investment risk.

But investors have been pouring money into the category anyway.

For Goldman, every dollar that remains in those funds can generate management fees year after year.

That is why paying billions for an ETF company can make economic sense even though NEOS itself does not resemble the enormous industrial or technology businesses usually associated with multibillion-dollar acquisitions.

Goldman is buying the future fees attached to $30 billion of investor money — and the possibility that those assets grow substantially over time.

NEOS co-founders Troy Cates and Garrett Paolella are expected to become partners at Goldman Sachs after the transaction closes, which is currently expected in the first quarter of 2027.

The broader shift is worth watching.

Wall Street spent decades making enormous profits helping companies raise money and complete acquisitions.

Increasingly, the biggest banks want businesses that keep generating fees long after the deal is finished.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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U.S. stocks finished mostly higher Wednesday, August 12, as a cooler inflation reading eased fears of an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase and another wave of strong AI-infrastructure results pulled technology shares higher.

The S&P 500 gained 20.38 points, or 0.26%, to 7,748.58, finishing just below its record. The Nasdaq Composite rose 145.70 points, or 0.55%, to 26,588.49, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 30.28 points, or 0.06%, to 53,761.57. Small-cap stocks also outperformed during the session, with the Russell 2000 trading roughly 0.5% higher near record territory. 

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.68% from 4.70% Tuesday, while Brent crude settled slightly lower at $88.58 a barrel after another volatile session shaped by Middle East supply concerns and weaker global oil-demand forecasts. 

Among the day’s biggest stock movers, Super Micro Computer jumped about 19.6%, CoreWeave gained roughly 19.4%, and Nvidia rose 3.1%. Nebius surged more than 20%, while Lumentum gained roughly 15%. On the downside, housing-related stocks struggled, with D.R. Horton down 3.1%, PulteGroup off 2.3% and Builders FirstSource losing 3.9% as elevated mortgage rates continued weighing on the sector. 

Economy: Inflation Finally Gives Businesses Some Breathing Room

The most important economic number of the day was considerably less dramatic than markets feared.

The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1% in July, after falling 0.4% in June. Compared with a year earlier, consumer prices were up 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% from a year earlier, down from 2.6%. 

Shelter costs rose just 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase. Gasoline declined for a second consecutive month, while hotel prices and prescription-drug costs also fell. Medical care and airline fares moved higher. 

For businesses, the important part was what did not happen. The energy shock from the Iran conflict has not yet produced the broad inflation surge many economists feared. That reduces the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise borrowing costs again.

Markets moved quickly. Traders shifted to roughly a 62% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September, compared with essentially even odds between a hike and a hold before the inflation report. 

Consumers are not necessarily feeling richer, however. Real average hourly earnings were still down about 0.2% from a year earlier, meaning purchasing power remains squeezed even as the inflation rate moderates. 

Washington: July Deficit Hits $432 Billion

One of Wednesday’s largest business stories received far less attention than CPI.

The federal government ran a $432 billion budget deficit in July, the largest July deficit on record and the biggest monthly shortfall since the pandemic-era spending surge of March 2021. 

Some of that was timing. Because August began on a weekend, about $99 billion of benefit payments that normally would have appeared in August were paid in July. Even after adjusting for those calendar effects, however, the July deficit was approximately $333 billion, 18% larger than a year earlier. 

The bigger number is the fiscal-year total.

During the first 10 months of fiscal 2026, the federal deficit reached $1.799 trillion, already exceeding the entire $1.775 trillion deficit recorded in fiscal 2025, with two months still remaining in the fiscal year. 

There was also an unusual tariff twist. Net customs receipts were actually negative $8.55 billion in July after the government issued $33.38 billion in tariff refunds. 

For investors and business owners, federal deficits eventually meet the bond market. Persistent heavy Treasury borrowing can keep pressure on longer-term interest rates even when inflation cools, affecting mortgages, corporate borrowing, commercial real estate financing and government interest expense.

Restaurants & Consumers: Wendy’s May Be Going Private

Wendy’s shares jumped about 12% after Reuters reported that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management is assembling a group of investors for a possible takeover of the fast-food chain. 

The potential consortium could include BlueFive Capital and Flynn Group, one of Wendy’s franchisees, with a bid potentially arriving within weeks. Wendy’s currently has a market value of roughly $1.44 billion. 

The timing says as much about the restaurant industry as it does about Wendy’s.

The chain has lost market share within the quick-service hamburger category for 17 consecutive months, with customer visits and frequency under pressure. Wendy’s recently withdrew its 2026 financial forecast after comparable sales declined. 

Restaurants have spent much of the past two years relying on value meals and promotions to lure inflation-weary customers. The Wendy’s situation suggests investors increasingly believe some struggling public restaurant companies may be worth more under private ownership, where turnarounds can be attempted without the pressure of quarterly earnings expectations.

Wall Street: Goldman Pays $2.25 Billion for the ETF Boom

Goldman Sachs agreed to buy Neos Investments for as much as $2.25 billion, another sign that Wall Street sees actively managed ETFs as one of the fastest-growing businesses in money management. 

Neos manages about $30 billion across 19 ETFs, many of which use options to generate income or limit downside risk.

The deal follows Goldman’s roughly $2 billion purchase of Innovator Capital earlier this year. Once Neos is added, Goldman expects to oversee about $80 billion in active ETFs. 

Why pay billions for ETF managers?

Investment banking and trading revenues can swing dramatically from quarter to quarter. Asset-management fees arrive repeatedly as long as investors leave their money in the funds. Goldman’s asset and wealth management operation generated $4.6 billion of second-quarter revenue, up 20% from a year earlier. 

The Neos acquisition therefore reflects a broader transformation on Wall Street: banks that once depended heavily on dealmaking are buying businesses that produce steadier recurring fees.

Energy: Refiners Are Making Billions From the Fuel Shortage

High gasoline prices are hurting consumers, but they are generating extraordinary profits for American refiners.

Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and Valero Energy earned a combined $12.6 billion during the second quarter, their largest combined profit since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. 

The three companies returned $6.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, compared with $2.6 billion during the same quarter last year. 

The profits are coming from exceptionally high refining margins as disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, refinery attacks elsewhere and tight fuel inventories make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel more valuable.

The numbers are striking. The diesel refining spread reached a record $93.84 a barrel on August 10, while the gasoline refining spread reached roughly $60 a barrel in July. 

Investors have noticed. Marathon shares are up roughly 110% this year, Valero more than 98%, and Phillips 66 about 75%, significantly outperforming the broader energy sector. 

For consumers and transportation-dependent businesses, the same economics work in reverse. Refiners’ extraordinary margins are another reminder that even if crude prices stabilize, gasoline and diesel prices do not necessarily fall at the same speed.

AI Infrastructure: The Capacity Shortage Is Getting Bigger

The AI infrastructure boom produced another remarkable data point Wednesday.

Nebius reported second-quarter revenue of $582.3 million, nearly six times the revenue generated by its core AI-cloud operation a year earlier and above Wall Street expectations. Its shares surged more than 20%. 

More revealing than the quarterly revenue was the backlog.

Nebius signed four AI-cloud contracts averaging more than $1 billion each, while total contract value nearly quadrupled. Management said it believes it could sell all of its planned 2027 computing capacity at current pricing. 

The company now expects more than $9 billion in customer prepayments this year and says it has more than $40 billion in customer commitments. It increased its contracted 2026 power target to five gigawatts. 

That reinforces the message coming from CoreWeave, Super Micro and Nvidia: businesses are still competing for access to AI computing capacity faster than infrastructure can be built.

The other side of the story is cost. Nebius spent approximately $5.7 billion on capital expenditures in the quarter, about $1 billion more than analysts expected. 

AI demand may no longer be the biggest question. Financing the electricity, chips and data centers required to satisfy that demand increasingly is.

What to Watch Thursday

The next inflation test comes immediately.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July Producer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday, August 13. Unlike CPI, which measures what consumers pay, PPI measures prices further up the supply chain and can reveal cost pressures that businesses have not yet passed along to customers. 

That makes Thursday’s number particularly important after Wednesday’s reassuring CPI. A benign PPI would strengthen the argument that the Iran-driven energy shock remains relatively contained. A strong number would suggest manufacturers and wholesalers are absorbing costs that could eventually reach consumers.

Applied Materials reports after Thursday’s closing bell, with its earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET. The semiconductor-equipment giant has become another major indicator of how long the AI capital-spending boom can continue. Analysts are looking for roughly $9 billion in quarterly revenue as chipmakers invest aggressively in advanced manufacturing capacity. 

Cisco’s fiscal fourth-quarter results were scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, just after the regular market close, so those numbers were not yet incorporated into Wednesday’s closing market reaction. Cisco had already raised its expectations for AI-infrastructure orders from hyperscale customers to $9 billion for fiscal 2026, making its results another potential driver for technology stocks Thursday morning. 

And oil remains impossible to ignore. Brent finished Wednesday near $88.58 a barrel, but stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, tanker security and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz mean one geopolitical headline can still move fuel prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields and stocks together. 

Wednesday’s indexes barely moved by historical standards.

The business developments beneath them were much larger: inflation cooled enough to give the Fed room to wait, Washington’s fiscal deficit crossed another troubling threshold, private capital circled a major restaurant chain, Wall Street continued buying recurring-fee businesses, refiners harvested billions from the energy disruption, and AI companies showed that demand for computing power still exceeds the industry’s ability to build it.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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The federal government borrowed $42 billion for ten years on Wednesday, and to get investors to hand over the money it had to promise them 4.683% a year — the steepest rate the United States has paid at a 10-year note auction since 2007, before the financial crisis. That rate is locked in for the life of the debt, and taxpayers carry it.

The auction closed at 1 p.m. Eastern. The high yield of 4.683% came in a fraction above the 4.682% level the notes had been trading at just before the sale — a gap of one-tenth of a basis point. When an auction prices above where the market was already trading, it is called a tail, and it means buyers demanded slightly more compensation than expected. The average tail on recent 10-year sales has been three-tenths of a basis point, so Wednesday’s was smaller than usual.

Everything underneath that headline number pointed to solid demand rather than a buyers’ strike. Bids totaled 2.53 times the amount on offer, above the 2.47 six-month average. The critical measure was foreign appetite. Indirect bidders, the category that captures overseas central banks and foreign institutions, took 76.7% of the sale against an average of 71.3%. Domestic direct bidders were lighter than normal at 14.7%, and primary dealers — the banks obligated to buy whatever nobody else wants — were left with just 8.6%, well below their 11.0% average. A small dealer take is the clearest sign that real investors absorbed the paper.

Wednesday’s sale was the middle leg of the Treasury’s quarterly refunding. The full package totals $125 billion: $58 billion of three-year notes on Tuesday, Wednesday’s $42 billion of 10-year notes, and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday, Aug. 13. The sales refinance roughly $96.3 billion of privately held debt coming due Aug. 15 and raise about $28.7 billion in fresh cash, with all three settling Monday, Aug. 17.

The reason the government is paying more is not that anyone doubts it will pay. It is the sheer volume of borrowing colliding with inflation that has refused to come all the way down. Treasury raised its estimate for July-through-September borrowing by $68 billion to $739 billion, and expects to borrow another $628 billion in the final quarter of the year — more than $1.3 trillion across the second half of 2026. Every additional dollar of supply has to find a buyer, and buyers set the price.

Inflation is the other half. The July consumer price report released Wednesday morning showed prices up 0.1% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier — cooler than feared, but still comfortably above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. An investor lending money for a decade at 4.683% is clearing that inflation rate by a little over a point, which is roughly what it takes to bring lenders to the table now. The 10-year yield had already finished July at 4.75%, so Wednesday’s result was in line with where the market has settled rather than a break to new territory.

What the Treasury is doing about it shows up in the shape of the offering. The three-year piece at $58 billion is larger than the 10-year and 30-year legs combined, a deliberate tilt toward shorter maturities that holds down the interest bill while the extra yield investors demand for long-dated debt stays elevated. Treasury also left its longer-term issuance sizes unchanged in the refunding announcement, avoiding fresh supply pressure at the long end after yields climbed in recent months. It has additionally penciled in up to $38 billion of buybacks next quarter to support liquidity, plus $25 billion for cash management, and is targeting a $950 billion cash balance at the end of September.

For anyone outside the bond market, the 10-year yield is the number that matters most. Thirty-year mortgage rates track it, corporate borrowing costs move with it, and the government’s own interest expense compounds off it. A 4.683% cost of capital for the world’s benchmark borrower sets the floor under every other loan priced in dollars.

The last leg of the refunding comes Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern with $25 billion of 30-year bonds. Following Wednesday’s result, the expectation on trading desks is that the long bond finds buyers without difficulty — but the 30-year is where doubts about the trajectory of federal debt show up first, and it will be the more honest test of the two.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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U.S. stocks opened higher Wednesday, August 12, with technology leading after July inflation came in exactly where Wall Street expected and strong earnings from three AI-infrastructure companies reignited the artificial-intelligence trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 5.6 points, or 0.01%, at 53,797.47. The S&P 500 jumped 37.3 points, or 0.48%, to 7,765.46, putting the index back in record territory, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 235 points, or 0.89%, to 26,680.47.

The morning’s economic reports delivered a relatively friendly combination. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% from a year earlier, down from June’s 3.5% annual rate. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% year over year, down from 2.6%. All four readings matched economists’ expectations. Separately, mortgage applications rose 3.6% in the week ended August 7 as the average 30-year mortgage rate eased to 6.77% from 6.81%, providing a modest pickup in housing demand.

The inflation report matters because it takes some immediate pressure off the Federal Reserve after July unexpectedly produced job losses. The Fed has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for five straight meetings, and at the July session three voting members dissented in favor of raising it. Traders moved slightly further toward expecting a hold in September, with the probability around 55% following the report. Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year yield around 4.65% to 4.67% Wednesday morning.

The bigger fuel for the Nasdaq is corporate earnings. CoreWeave surged more than 20% after reporting second-quarter revenue of $2.58 billion, up 112% from a year earlier, and lifting its outlook as its AI-computing backlog climbed to roughly $104.2 billion, before more than $25 billion of additional commitments secured early this quarter.

Super Micro Computer jumped about 10% after fiscal fourth-quarter revenue nearly doubled to $11.12 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.70 a share came in at nearly double what analysts expected. Gross margin was the number that moved the stock, rising to 17.6% from 10.1% the prior quarter against company guidance of 8.2% to 8.4%. Management said it booked more than $60 billion in new orders during the quarter and guided fiscal 2027 revenue to a range of $65 billion to $72 billion, against $39.1 billion in the year just ended. Revenue for the quarter did fall roughly $610 million short of estimates, a miss investors largely set aside.

Nebius Group, which reported Wednesday morning, climbed more than 12% on revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% from a year ago, and its first positive quarterly adjusted earnings at $236.2 million.

That AI strength is spreading beyond the headline names. Shares tied to networking, optical equipment, servers and data-center infrastructure also moved higher, including Lumentum, Coherent, Marvell, Applied Digital and IREN. Cava gained after stronger traffic helped lift quarterly results. Outside technology, Definium Therapeutics rose about 20% after the New York biotechnology company said its LSD-based tablet met the main goal of a late-stage anxiety trial. Intel remained the counterweight to the day’s optimism, under pressure after enlarging its planned common stock sale to $20 billion from $15 billion to fund its own computing buildout.

For investors worried that enormous AI capital spending might be slowing, CoreWeave, Super Micro and Nebius delivered the opposite message: customers are still committing billions of dollars to computing capacity.

The one complication is energy. Brent crude remained near $89 a barrel and U.S. crude around $84 as negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. That means Wednesday’s cooler inflation report is looking backward: much of the latest oil increase occurred after the July measurement period and could begin appearing more clearly in August prices.

Elsewhere in commodities, gold rose about 0.8% to roughly $4,400 an ounce and silver gained 1% to $65.30. The dollar was little changed, with the dollar index near 99.8. The yen remained the soft spot at about 159.4 to the dollar, close enough to 160 to keep Japanese intervention in the conversation.

For the rest of Wednesday, investors have several checkpoints. The weekly petroleum inventory report landed at 10:30 a.m. ET, one of two potential movers for oil on the day. A 10-year Treasury auction at 1:00 p.m. will test demand for government debt, followed by the July federal budget report at 2:00 p.m. After the closing bell, Cisco, StubHub and Coherent are among the companies scheduled to report earnings. Above all, any new U.S.-Iran or Hormuz headline can still quickly move oil, Treasury yields and the broader market.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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U.S. stocks finished modestly lower Tuesday as investors weighed stubborn energy prices, softer housing activity, mixed consumer signals and another round of massive AI infrastructure spending ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,728.20, down 24.91 points, or 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 184.13 points, or 0.3%, to 53,791.85, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 159.91 points, or 0.6%, to 26,445.45.

Small-cap stocks moved the other way. The Russell 2000 gained 0.3% to 3,027.12, showing better relative strength among smaller companies even as large technology stocks lagged.

Brent crude settled 1.4% higher at $88.91 a barrel, keeping energy costs at the center of the inflation debate. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.68%, down from roughly 4.72% Monday.

Among the day’s biggest movers, On Holding plunged more than 21%, Aramark jumped nearly 9%, and Cardinal Health finished higher.

The larger story beneath the indexes was an economy sending conflicting signals: housing remains constrained by high borrowing costs, small-business owners are becoming more optimistic, oil remains expensive, and AI infrastructure companies continue projecting extraordinary growth.

Housing Slows Again

Existing-home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.06 million annualized pace, marking the second consecutive monthly decline.

The median existing-home price still increased about 2% from a year earlier to $434,100, while inventory slipped to roughly 1.54 million homes.

Mortgage rates remained close to 6.7%, leaving both sides of the housing market under pressure.

Potential buyers are struggling with monthly payments that remain far above pre-pandemic levels, while existing homeowners with mortgages locked in at much lower rates remain reluctant to sell.

That creates a market where home prices can stay elevated even as transaction volume remains weak.

For brokers, mortgage lenders, title companies, contractors, furniture retailers and businesses tied to home turnover, the slowdown in transactions remains the bigger problem than falling property values.

Small Businesses Turn More Optimistic

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed to 99.8, its highest level in 11 months.

The share of owners planning to create jobs over the next three months rose to 20%, the highest level since October 2022.

That is an important counterpoint to last week’s weak national employment report.

Small businesses are still signaling demand for workers even as broader payroll growth slows, suggesting the labor market may be cooling unevenly rather than collapsing across the economy.

The challenge remains finding qualified employees. Many business owners continue reporting difficulty filling open positions.

For Main Street, the numbers suggest confidence is improving even while financing costs, labor shortages and input prices remain substantial obstacles.

Energy Costs May Stay High Much Longer

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its oil-price outlook as Middle East production disruptions continue.

The agency estimates roughly 5.5 million barrels per day of Middle East production — more than 5% of global oil consumption — was offline during July.

More importantly, the EIA now expects some disrupted production to remain unavailable through the end of 2027.

The agency raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to approximately $86.81 a barrel, while estimating global production at roughly 100.8 million barrels per day against demand near 104 million.

That changes the business calculation.

Elevated oil prices do not stop at the gas pump. They increase trucking expenses, aviation costs, plastics production, manufacturing expenses, utility bills and the price of moving goods through supply chains.

For business owners, the larger takeaway is that expensive energy may no longer be a temporary Hormuz-related shock.

If production remains constrained well into 2027, companies may have to begin treating higher transportation and energy costs as a longer-term operating expense.

U.S. and Canada Move Toward Possible Trade Deal

American and Canadian officials are working toward a potential trade agreement ahead of another threatened round of U.S. tariffs.

The discussions could affect autos, steel, aluminum, agriculture, construction materials and other industries where U.S. and Canadian supply chains are deeply connected.

For businesses operating across the border, even progress toward an agreement reduces uncertainty around pricing, sourcing, inventory and long-term contracts.

North American manufacturers often move components across the border multiple times before a finished product reaches a customer, meaning tariffs can compound throughout the supply chain.

No final agreement has been reached, and the possibility of new tariffs remains.

On Holding Plunges as U.S. Growth Slows

Shares of premium footwear company On Holding fell more than 21% after investors focused on slower sales growth in the Americas.

Americas sales increased about 13%, compared with roughly 17% growth in the previous quarter.

Asia-Pacific sales remained much stronger, increasing more than 50%.

The company is still growing, but Wall Street punished the slowdown because investors had priced in unusually strong expansion.

Management also signaled that it would not chase sales volume through aggressive discounting, preferring to protect the premium positioning of the brand.

For retailers and consumer companies, the reaction offered another warning about the American consumer.

Higher-income shoppers are still spending, but investors are increasingly sensitive to any evidence that discretionary purchases are slowing.

Shein’s Valuation Reset Gets Real

Shein is preparing to move ahead with a Hong Kong initial public offering that could value the fast-fashion company at roughly $30 billion to $40 billion.

That would represent a dramatic reset from its private valuation of more than $98 billion in 2022.

The company has faced rising trade costs, regulatory scrutiny and the elimination of a U.S. duty exemption that had helped make its direct-to-consumer shipping model extraordinarily inexpensive.

Shein recently swung to a quarterly loss as those pressures increased.

The IPO will therefore become an important test of how investors value ultra-fast global e-commerce once cheap cross-border shipping and tariff advantages become less dependable.

It also matters for other private companies considering public listings. A successful Shein offering at a substantially lower valuation could encourage more companies to accept realistic pricing rather than wait indefinitely for previous private-market valuations to return.

AI Infrastructure Spending Keeps Accelerating

After the closing bell, Super Micro Computer projected fiscal 2027 revenue of $65 billion to $72 billion, far above Wall Street expectations.

The company remains one of the largest suppliers of servers optimized for artificial-intelligence workloads, and its forecast suggests hyperscalers and other AI developers are still placing enormous orders for computing infrastructure.

CoreWeave separately reported second-quarter revenue of $2.58 billion, slightly ahead of expectations.

But CoreWeave also showed the other side of the AI boom.

Technology and infrastructure expenses jumped 125% to $1.51 billion, highlighting how much capital is required to build and operate the computing capacity customers are demanding.

That is becoming one of the most important questions surrounding AI.

Demand remains extraordinary. The harder question is whether the companies financing data centers, chips, networking equipment and power infrastructure can ultimately generate returns large enough to justify the spending.

The AI boom is increasingly becoming a financing and infrastructure story rather than simply a software or semiconductor story.

Cyberattack Reaches Freight and Logistics

Uber Freight disclosed unauthorized access to part of its systems and repositories.

The company said operations continued normally and that the incident had been contained, but hackers claimed to possess nearly 1 million files.

The same broader hacking campaign has reportedly targeted major financial and investment organizations.

For businesses, attacks on freight platforms create risks far beyond stolen passwords.

Modern logistics systems contain customer information, pricing, routing instructions, contracts, shipment records and billing data.

A disruption can quickly spread across manufacturers, distributors, retailers and trucking companies that depend on those platforms to move inventory.

Cybersecurity is therefore becoming a supply-chain issue as much as an IT issue.

What to Watch Wednesday

The biggest event arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET, when the government releases July consumer inflation.

Markets are looking for headline inflation around 3.4% year over year, with core inflation expected near 2.5%.

The report could determine the market’s next major move.

A hotter-than-expected number could lift Treasury yields, strengthen the dollar and pressure technology and other rate-sensitive stocks.

A softer reading could push yields lower and revive expectations that the Federal Reserve can remain on hold rather than tighten further.

The inflation report also matters directly to businesses because it will show whether higher energy and other input costs are beginning to spread more broadly through consumer prices.

Cisco reports earnings after the closing bell Wednesday, giving investors another read on whether AI spending is spreading beyond chips and servers into networking equipment.

Oil remains the largest external risk.

With Brent near $89 a barrel and the EIA warning that some Middle East production disruptions could persist through 2027, another negative development around shipping or production could quickly overwhelm even a favorable inflation report.

Tuesday’s market decline was small.

The business signals underneath it were not.

Housing remains locked by rates, small-business confidence is improving, oil is threatening to stay expensive for much longer, U.S.-Canada trade remains unsettled, premium consumer brands are seeing more pressure, and the AI infrastructure buildout continues at a scale that is reshaping capital spending across the economy.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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U.S. stocks opened cautiously higher Tuesday, August 11, as fresh reports of possible progress toward a U.S.-Iran arrangement eased some of the pressure from surging oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 14.4 points, or 0.03%, at 53,961.60. The S&P 500 gained 14.4 points, or 0.19%, to 7,767.51, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 66.8 points, or 0.25%, to 26,672.18. Within the first half-hour, the Dow reversed higher by roughly 65 points, the S&P held a gain of about 0.1%, and the Nasdaq was near unchanged. 

The immediate market driver is still the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude briefly pushed above $90 a barrel before retreating toward $87 after reports suggested the United States and Iran may be moving closer to an arrangement and Qatar said Iran-Oman negotiations were advanced. Oil had jumped more than 5% Monday as hopes for a quick agreement faded. Treasury yields also moved lower Tuesday morning, giving some support to stocks. 

Tuesday’s morning economic data was light but encouraging. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 99.8 in July from 97.4, beating the 97.0 consensus and reaching its highest level in roughly 11 months. Hiring intentions strengthened, but labor shortages remain a problem: 36% of owners reported positions they could not fill, while inflation fell sharply as a top concern. The National Association of Realtors’ July existing-home-sales report was scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET; its official release page had not yet posted the July figure at the cutoff for this recap, so JBizNews is not assuming a number. 

Individual stocks are moving much more sharply than the indexes. Riot Platforms surged roughly 17% after announcing a 20-year computing agreement valued at about $9.1 billion to supply 191 megawatts of capacity to a major AI company reported to be Anthropic. On Holding fell roughly 16% after missing second-quarter sales expectations and cutting its full-year forecast, while Hims & Hers dropped about 7% following a wider-than-expected quarterly loss. 

Healthcare and business-services earnings are providing some upside. Cardinal Health rose about 8% in early trading after beating quarterly profit expectations and forecasting fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings of $12.40 to $12.60 a share, above the roughly $12.04 Wall Street consensus. Aramark gained about 8% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue. Intel remained slightly lower after increasing its newly announced stock sale to $20 billion from $15 billion, pricing approximately 210.5 million shares at $95 apiece to raise money for capital spending and other corporate purposes. 

For the rest of Tuesday, oil and Iran headlines remain the fastest-moving risk for the market. Investors will also watch the New York Fed’s second-quarter household debt and credit report at 11:00 a.m. ET. After the closing bell, AI-linked companies Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave and Lumentum are scheduled to report earnings, giving investors another read on whether enormous AI infrastructure spending is translating into revenue. 

The larger test arrives Wednesday morning. July CPI is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists looking for headline inflation of roughly 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in June. After Friday’s weak employment report, a softer inflation number could strengthen the argument for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in September; a hotter number, particularly after the recent oil spike, could quickly push Treasury yields higher and pressure richly valued technology stocks. 

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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JPMorgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,000 from 7,800, arguing that stronger corporate profits and accelerating artificial-intelligence investment are giving the market more room to run.

The new target implies roughly 3% upside from Friday’s record close of 7,757.64.

The bank also raised its earnings forecasts for the companies in the index, now expecting $365 a share in 2026 and $420 in 2027, up from previous estimates of $350 and $390.

The reason is increasingly clear: the enormous sums being spent on AI are beginning to show up in actual revenue and profits.

JPMorgan pointed to stronger cloud growth and larger backlogs at companies including Amazon, Microsoft and Google as evidence that AI spending is moving beyond promises and into measurable business results.

Corporate earnings broadly have also come in stronger than expected. More than 85% of S&P 500 companies that had reported through Friday beat analysts’ profit estimates, well above the long-term average.

JPMorgan is not assuming investors will simply pay ever-higher valuations. The bank kept its forward valuation target near 20 times earnings, meaning most of the expected market upside would have to come from companies generating more profit rather than investors paying substantially more for each dollar of earnings.

That distinction matters because several risks remain.

Interest rates are still elevated, oil prices remain vulnerable to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and companies are issuing large amounts of both debt and equity to finance AI infrastructure.

Still, JPMorgan’s call shows how powerful the earnings cycle has become.

The S&P 500 is already up more than 13% this year, yet Wall Street’s biggest banks continue raising targets because profit growth is outpacing earlier forecasts.

The next challenge is whether companies can keep converting massive AI spending into enough revenue to justify both the investment and today’s elevated stock prices.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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Wall Street gave back a sliver of last week’s record run on Monday after crude oil surged roughly 5%, driven by growing doubt that Washington and Tehran will reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz any time soon.

The mechanics are straightforward: higher oil means higher inflation, and higher inflation means the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise rates — the opposite of what stocks rallied on last week.

The S&P 500 finished just below the flatline, slipping 0.06% to 7,753.11. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32% to 26,605.36, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 60.95 points, or 0.11%, to close at 53,975.98. The Russell 2000 lagged the large-cap indexes, trading down about 0.6% near 3,015.

That leaves the S&P a whisker under Friday’s record close of 7,757.64 — a pause rather than a reversal.

The week that came before

Stocks posted a second straight winning week last week. The S&P 500 advanced 3.6%, closing above 7,700 for the first time in its history. The Nasdaq gained 5.2% on a rebound in chip stocks, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up more than 7%. The Dow added nearly 3%.

Friday’s fuel was the July jobs report: nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 against expectations for a gain of about 82,000, and June was revised down to 20,000 from 57,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, below June’s 4.2%. Labor force participation slipped to 61.4% and average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% on the month.

Weak jobs plus soft wages equals a Fed that can sit still. Monday’s oil move put a question mark on that.

Market movers

Nvidia was the single heaviest drag on the tape, falling nearly 3% after a Financial Times report that the chipmaker is working with Apollo Global and Blackstone on a $500 billion AI infrastructure funding package. Bank of America kept its buy rating and called Nvidia a top sector pick, dismissing memory-cost and circular-financing concerns as overblown ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter report on Aug. 26.

Intel dropped 4% after announcing a $15 billion common stock offering. Equity offerings dilute existing shareholders, and the market priced that in immediately. Apple shed 1.5%.

The day’s biggest winners were both takeout targets. MarineMax soared 46% after agreeing to be sold to Blackstone Infrastructure’s Safe Harbor Marinas for $53 a share in cash, a $1.5 billion deal expected to close by year end. Varex Imaging climbed 48% after Teledyne Technologies agreed to buy it for $18.90 a share in cash, with closing expected in early 2027. Teledyne rose slightly.

AI infrastructure names sold off across the board. The Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF lost 1%, Corning fell more than 3%, and photonics makers Coherent and Lumentum dropped 12% and more than 6%.

Exxon Mobil rose 3.4% as energy tracked crude higher, while Eli Lilly gained 2.3%, Microsoft 2.2%, Amazon 1.9% and Meta Platforms 1.3%. AbCellera surged 36% after a mid-stage trial showed its drug reduced hot flashes against placebo after a single dose.

Critical mineral stocks — MP Materials, 5E Advanced Materials, United States Antimony, Critical Metals, USA Rare Earth and Energy Fuels — moved on the White House announcement late Friday of more than $2 billion in new mining investments plus over $180 million for mining schools and workforce development.

Berkshire Hathaway reported second-quarter operating earnings of $12.98 billion against $11.16 billion a year earlier, on revenue of $101.81 billion versus $92.52 billion, and repurchased roughly $4.5 billion of its own shares in the quarter.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate futures climbed about 5% to close at $82.13 a barrel, and Brent settled around 5% higher at $87.72. Both benchmarks had fallen more than 7% last week on expectations that Iran and Oman were closing in on an agreement. Before the war, the strait carried roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen below 300 million barrels, the lowest since January 1983.

Gold futures rose 0.43% to $4,418.60 an ounce. The metal gained 7.4% last week, its best week since January, with silver up 10.2% to $65.34.

Rates, the dollar and the Fed

The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.66%, still subdued after the payrolls miss, though it traded as high as 4.703% against Friday’s close of 4.658% — pressure from oil rather than from growth optimism. Futures now price roughly a 44% chance of a quarter-point hike in September, down from about 67% a week ago. The dollar hovered near a two-month low against major currencies.

What moved the world

Iran says it is nearing a deal with Oman to reopen Hormuz but continues to resist direct talks with the United States until conditions are met. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday there is no possibility of restarting negotiations while those conditions stand. Tehran wants the naval blockade lifted and compensation for war damages.

President Trump told Axios on Sunday the U.S. is “only semi-negotiating” with Iran, and indicated he would lean on the blockade rather than new airstrikes. Iran’s supreme leader replaced the official who issued those demands with a veteran Revolutionary Guards commander skeptical of talks with Washington. Houthi militants claimed an attack on a Saudi refinery near the Red Sea, and an Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. tanker was attacked in Hormuz over the weekend.

Overseas, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0.3% at 9,232.60.

What’s next

The Consumer Price Index and initial jobless claims are due this week, along with earnings from Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave and Cisco Systems. Producer prices and the University of Michigan inflation survey follow.

A cool CPI keeps last week’s rally intact and September on hold. A hot one, with oil back above $80, puts the hike squarely back on the table.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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Gold just posted its strongest week in seven months, and the reason is simple: a bad jobs report made a Federal Reserve rate hike look a lot less likely, and gold always gains when the case for higher interest rates weakens.

Bullion climbed 7.4% over the week, its fastest advance since Jan. 19. Spot gold jumped 2.3% on Friday alone to $4,336.02 an ounce, touching its highest level since June 17, while U.S. gold futures settled up 2.3% at $4,399.70.

Here is the mechanism in everyday terms. Gold pays no interest and no dividend. When the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds start paying more, and holding a metal that pays nothing becomes expensive. When a rate hike looks less likely, that cost falls away and money moves back into gold.

The jobs number that did it

The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, after a downwardly revised gain of 20,000 in June. Economists had been looking for an increase of 80,000. A negative print where the market expected a solid gain is the kind of surprise that resets rate expectations in a single morning.

Traders now put the odds of a quarter-point hike in September at roughly 44%, down from about 67% a week earlier. Separate futures pricing showed the probability of the Fed simply holding rates in September rising to 56.1% from 43.2% before the report landed.

The dollar softened and Treasury yields eased alongside it, both of which push in gold’s favor.

Where prices stand now

December gold futures opened Monday at $4,400 an ounce, unchanged from Friday’s close and the highest opening level since early June, before slipping to $4,391.50 by 8:22 a.m. Eastern. Spot gold was at $4,333.81 an ounce at 10 a.m. Eastern, down about $10 from the prior session. By midday the spot price had firmed to $4,375.89.

Gold has held above $4,300 through Monday, keeping last week’s gains even as oil prices moved higher on continued uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The rest of the precious metals complex ran harder than gold. Silver gained 10.2% on the week to $65.34 an ounce, also its fastest weekly move in nearly seven months. Platinum rose 1% Friday to $1,745.87 and palladium added 0.4% to $1,376.90, with both finishing the week higher.

Why this year has been strange for gold

Gold normally thrives on war and inflation. This year it did not, and the reason matters for reading what comes next. Both metals started 2026 strong on expectations of an easier Fed — gold rose 8.7% in the week of Jan. 19 to $4,980 an ounce, silver 14.7% to $102.48. That reversed on Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel struck Iran and Tehran retaliated, driving oil and global inflation higher and pushing central banks toward rate hikes. Rising rates and wartime demand for cash pulled money out of both metals, and they only found support as Middle East tensions eased somewhat and the U.S. labor market began to cool.

In other words, the war worked against gold this year rather than for it, because it forced central banks to tighten. Last week’s payrolls number was the first real crack in that logic.

The central bank bid underneath

Behind the price action sits steady official buying. China’s central bank is expanding its gold storage in Hong Kong as part of a broader shift of sovereign reserves out of London, and it added 20 tons in July alone in what is now a 21-month buying streak. That is a floor under the market that does not move with weekly data.

UBS said Friday it expects gold to reach $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2027.

What’s next

This week brings the July Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, along with jobless claims and the University of Michigan inflation expectations reading. A hot inflation print would put a September hike back on the table and take the wind out of last week’s move. A soft one extends it.

Gold miners are the second-order trade. Newmont, the largest holding in the major mining ETFs, has broken above its 150-day moving average, while the GDX and GDXJ funds are still testing theirs and gold itself remains below that line. Miners tend to move harder than the metal in both directions.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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